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  1. #1
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    Main 2019 National Draft NGA-F/S and Bid Scenarios

    The most obvious four clubs with priority access players.

    Fremantle: Liam Henry: They look to well situated with current picks and if he goes around Pick 12 as some have suggested, then they may not need to do by move. They've banked 7, 10 & 12/Ryan comfortably. Good draft for them.

    Hawthorn: Finn McGuiness: Again they look well situated if McGuiness slips passed their first rounder at Pick 11. If that happens, they shouldn't need to do nothing with their picks unless they want to with bunch of mid range picks. If the bid comes in higher then they'll shake things around.

    Port Adelaide: Jackson Mead: A lot more interesting. Some draft watchers have him going from 17-22 range. They are holding onto Pick 18 after the trade period. Which is probably Pick 21 after three matches bids (Green below). If they get to use this pick and take Mead after, then picks 29 and a bunch in the 60's is fine. This is one to watch here, or earlier at the end of the first draft night (round 1) as per below.

    GWS: Tom Green: Again, very interesting. There's dual issues here. If Green is not bid on and GWS select someone at pick 6, they only have 40, 59 & 60 with picks with attached draft points. Not nearly enough. They perhaps go into 2020 with a sizeable deficit or trade futures for current picks.

    However, if Sydney bids on Green at pick 5 as some have hinted at, then Pick 6 is pointless to hold. They originally traded 12 & 18 to get Pick 6. They might need to look at similar trades back. They'd reasonably expect that the values of Pick 6 vs Picks 12 & 18 are about the same. The leading candidates seem to be:

    Port: Picks 12 & 18 (Port: Pick 6 & Mead)
    Geelong: Picks 14 & 17 (Geelong: Picks 6, 24, 36, 93)
    GCS: Picks 15 & 20 (GCS: Picks 1, 2, 6) (& 2020 Round 2 GCS tied to Brisbane, exchanged for, Round 3 GWS tied to North)
    Brisbane: Picks 16, 21 (Brisbane: Picks 6, 34, 48, 52, 55, 72) (& Round 3 tied to Essendon, exchanged for, Round 4 tied to GWS)


    Obviously with just Pick 13 & Pick 53 this draft, I don't see any obvious live draft pick trades on our horizon. Our seemingly best performed F/S, Josh Kellett, isn't on any draft watchers radar. That said, if Pick 89 ends up being a live draft pick (La Young not upgraded), once Kellett goes passed Pick 55 (draft point wise, less discount) we can match a bid for free over the 34 picks between 55 & 89 if we so wanted to match a late ND bid on him.
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  3. #2
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    Re: Main 2019 National Draft NGA-F/S and Bid Scenarios

    That would result in GCS (if successful) having picks 2, 3 & 6 last year, and 1, 2 & 6 this year. With their first rounder, Pick 11, 2 X second rounders, 2 X fourth rounders. Plus their acamdey kids and the Darwin NGA zone players all for free.

    8 picks inside Pick 11 in three years. 10 first rounders in four years plus big trades (ie Weller for Pick 2).
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  4. #3
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    Re: Main 2019 National Draft NGA-F/S and Bid Scenarios

    Gold Coast are reportedly open to trading 15 and 20 to move up the order.

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    Re: Main 2019 National Draft NGA-F/S and Bid Scenarios

    Quote Originally Posted by Axe Man View Post
    Gold Coast are reportedly open to trading 15 and 20 to move up the order.
    13 is available at that price
    Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgment.

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    Re: Main 2019 National Draft NGA-F/S and Bid Scenarios

    Quote Originally Posted by Axe Man View Post
    Gold Coast are reportedly open to trading 15 and 20 to move up the order.
    If they can have Sydney bid on Green, them with picks 15 & 20 plus a future bit extra they could do move into pick 6.

    6 picks inside the top 6 across two drafts. They just need to keep retaining them.
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    Re: Main 2019 National Draft NGA-F/S and Bid Scenarios

    Quote Originally Posted by The Doctor View Post
    13 is available at that price
    For sure, we could even throw in pick 89 to sweeten the deal.

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  10. #7
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    Re: Main 2019 National Draft NGA-F/S and Bid Scenarios

    Quote Originally Posted by The Doctor View Post
    13 is available at that price
    For 15 and 20? I mean sure but there's no way they'd do it.
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  11. #8
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    Re: Main 2019 National Draft NGA-F/S and Bid Scenarios

    Quote Originally Posted by Axe Man View Post
    Gold Coast are reportedly open to trading 15 and 20 to move up the order.
    A sensible move by them highlighting Carlton's refusal to deal for Martin
    Start each day with a task completed. Find someone to help you through life. Respect everyone.
    Know that life is not fair and that you will fail often. But if take you take some risks, step up when the times are toughest, face down the bullies, lift up the downtrodden and never, ever give up — if you do these things, then the next generation and the generations that follow will live in a world far better than the one we have today.
    And what started here will indeed have changed the world — for the better.

  12. #9
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    Re: Main 2019 National Draft NGA-F/S and Bid Scenarios

    Can future picks be traded on draft night?

    I wonder, if we have a list of targets we want with pick 13, and if they're all gone, whether we're prepared to trade down the order for the right offer?

  13. #10
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    Re: Main 2019 National Draft NGA-F/S and Bid Scenarios

    Quote Originally Posted by westdog54 View Post
    Can future picks be traded on draft night?

    I wonder, if we have a list of targets we want with pick 13, and if they're all gone, whether we're prepared to trade down the order for the right offer?
    Yep. That's how we got St Kilda's 3rd rounder this year.
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  14. #11
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    Re: Main 2019 National Draft NGA-F/S and Bid Scenarios

    Quote Originally Posted by westdog54 View Post
    Can future picks be traded on draft night?

    I wonder, if we have a list of targets we want with pick 13, and if they're all gone, whether we're prepared to trade down the order for the right offer?
    I'd say it's a given that we would have small list of candidates and we would know full well which clubs would be willing to consider trades on the night if we miss those players

    Potentially pick 13 could become something with a 2020 theme to it
    Start each day with a task completed. Find someone to help you through life. Respect everyone.
    Know that life is not fair and that you will fail often. But if take you take some risks, step up when the times are toughest, face down the bullies, lift up the downtrodden and never, ever give up — if you do these things, then the next generation and the generations that follow will live in a world far better than the one we have today.
    And what started here will indeed have changed the world — for the better.

  15. #12
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    Re: Main 2019 National Draft NGA-F/S and Bid Scenarios

    Quote Originally Posted by GVGjr View Post
    I'd say it's a given that we would have small list of candidates and we would know full well which clubs would be willing to consider trades on the night if we miss those players

    Potentially pick 13 could become something with a 2020 theme to it
    I didn't want to screw the OP with a random hypothetical. If the assumption is there's no one wee desperately want at Pick 13...

    2019 - GCS trade for Pick 13 & 53 - Pick 20 (24 in real terms after Green, Henry, McGuiness, Mead) & Pick 78
    2020 - GCS trade compo Pick 11 (poss. 13 after bids/compo) - Adelaide 3rd rounder

    GCS: Pick 13, 53 & future 3rd (Crows - circa Pick 42)
    Dogs: Future pick 11 (12 or 13 with bids/compo) & current 2nd (Pick 24 after bids), Pick 78

    GCS: Pick 13, 42, 53 (across both years)
    Dogs: Picks 13 (11), 20 (24), 78 (across both years)
    DVI cost about Pick 60 in our favour. So bugger all if they really want pick 13 this year and we are happy to go down the order. If they want it all now it costs I guess. It's really costs them two third rounders for a second rounder (our way).

    Essentially our it's a straight firsts swap across both years. But the benefit to us aside from the year is real terms Pick 24 for Picks 42 & 53. If they can live with that, they get a fourth top 15 pick this year with their natural first rounder next year in tact.

    Dogs: Drop down from Pick 13 to Pick 24 in real terms. Downgrade a third rounder into a Suns 5th rounder this year. Give up a good third rounder next year too. Get Pick 11 to add to 2020 1st for priority access players.

    Dogs: 2019: Picks 20 (24), 78, 89
    Dogs 2020: Picks 11, 1st, 3rd, 4th

    I'm happy to tell GCS that should they wind up with two very good second rounders next year that increase our overall draft points that we are receptive to them approaching us with deals on Pick 11 or our First Rounder. So they could end up with them back anyway.

    Personally I think they deal with GWS for 15 & 20 on Pick 6.
    Our recruiters would be passing on 13 for 20 (24) and nothing picks at 78 & 89 or upgrading. They'd want to be sure that Pick 24 will land a good player. The players around the mark of 13 seem good.

    That's the best 2020 scenario I can come up with. But I'm happy with pick 13 as it stands.
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  16. #13
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    Re: Main 2019 National Draft NGA-F/S and Bid Scenarios

    Quote Originally Posted by Axe Man View Post
    Gold Coast are reportedly open to trading 15 and 20 to move up the order.
    On points that's about pick 5, although you need to bank a healthy surplus to move out of the top 10.
    Western Bulldogs: 2016 Premiers

  17. #14
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    Re: Main 2019 National Draft NGA-F/S and Bid Scenarios

    Quote Originally Posted by Mofra View Post
    On points that's about pick 5, although you need to bank a healthy surplus to move out of the top 10.
    Melbourne could get funky with GWS & GCS:

    Now: Pick 3 & 8, no Future 1st
    New: Pick 6, 15 & 20, Future 1st (GWS), exchanged GWS 3rd for 4th (tied to Freo) & exchange 2nd (GCS for tied to Hawks)

    Picks: 6, 15, 20 - future 1st (GWS), better 2nd (GCS), better 3rd (GWS) - Probably 5 top 20 picks across 2 years plus Tomlinson, Langdon & maybe Bennell. Is that enough, or stick with top quality with picks 3 & 8 and no first next year?
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  18. #15
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    Re: Main 2019 National Draft NGA-F/S and Bid Scenarios

    Question: if the swans bid on green at 5, can the Giants trade draft picks out of turn? i.e. do you need to wait until it’s your turn to trade picks or can it be done live at anytime?

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