BT's Western Bulldogs List Management Guidebook - 2020 Edition

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BT's Western Bulldogs List Management Guidebook - 2020 Edition

"Dedicated to the club we love and to all the active members who makes the Whitten Oval Online Forum a special place."




Assoc. Prof. B.D. Tragic
PhD Bulldogs, MListMan
Freelance List Manager Assistant
Fellow, Whitten Oval Online Forum




Thread Contents:

(Post 2) Abstract
(Post 2) Introduction
(Post 3) Chapter 1 - Where the On-Field Elite Performance is Coming From
(Post 4) Chapter 2 - Goal Kicking Accuracy on the List
(Post 5) Chapter 3 - Potential Outs
(Post 6) Chapter 4 - 2020 Player Re-Signings (Inc. Full List of Player Contracts)
(Post 7) Chapter 5 - Free Agency
(Post 8) Chapter 6 - 2020 Draft & 2020 Draft Points (inc. DP Trading Examples & Priority Access Player Estimates)
(Post 9) Chapter 7 - Rookie Upgrdes in 2020 & 2021, Rookie List Philosophy
(Post 10) Chapter 8 - 2021 List By Position & Needs
(Post 11) Chapter 9 - Synopsis of my Four Year Management Window
(Post 12) Chapter 10 - Salary Cap (aka Total Player Payments/TPP)
(Post 13) Chapter 11 - Creating & Becoming a Club of Choice for Indigenous Talent
(Post 14) Chapter 12- Miscellaneous List Composition Items
(Post 15) Chapter 13 - Review & Conclusion
(Post 16) End




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Abstract:

Much conjecture about list management will fill the lives of the members and fans of the Western Bulldogs Football Club. This guidebook reviews recent list management, offers a detailed proposed 2020 list management period and forecasts possible list management moves moving into the future in the context of achieving the clubs third VFL/AFL Premiership. This is my 'Version 1' of the guidebook, and as such further research and analysis is required as the year progresses. I sincerely hope that this is a coherent and worthwhile reading exercise to develop the conversation and critical thinking for the players we hope to bring in and those which we will have to let go to work towards that third Premiership.


Introduction:

This guidebook is my very, very early preliminary analysis (a month or so in the making), with the occasional educated guess &/or wish, with regard to our broader list management needs and list management decisions for 2020 and for the several years after it. Hopefully for you as readers it presents an interesting read about where the playing list currently is and also what it has the capability of turning into over the upcoming years. I hope it generates interesting discussion and debate about the best way forward and what the club under the careful watch of Sam Power may do looking at our very recent track record.

As you can see, from the table of contents, there are many different chapters comprising this guidebook. Many chapters have some overlaying information &/or assessment. I've read and re-read the full guidebook many, many times. I recommend reading the entire guidebook first and then any questions, comments or thoughts afterwards just in case a later chapter answers or clarifies anything. It is broken down into Chapters so you can read the thread at your own pace, and also to separate different components of the thread to make quoting easier if/when replying as we go along.

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Chapter 1: Where the On-Field Elite Performance is Coming From

In 2019 we played 34 players throughout the season (Boyd & Picken retiring early on). Whilst often being the youngest and/or most inexperienced we still had a core group of old/mature players. Of the 34 players selected to play in 2019:

- 25 players achieved career best statistics
- 3 senior players achieved equal career best stats in meaningful stats (Macrae, Wood & Hunter)
- 6 players didn't register meaningful career best stats (including: Morris (1 Game), Roberts (2 Games), Wallis (10 Games), Liberatore (15 Games), Trengove (16 Games) & Johannisen (20 Games) )
- 2 players traded for had career best stats in 2019 at their old clubs (Bruce & Keath)

(10 Players didn't play in 2019: Picken (Ret.), Boyd (Ret.), Webb, Greene, Cavarra, Sweet, Lynch, Khamis, Vandermeer & Porter)

The following lists of our players were ranked in the Top 20 (Statically categorised as 'ELITE') from across the entire competition in the following categories in 2019. These stats are taken at the end of the 2019 Home & Away Season &/or First Week of Finals (some stat machines like 'footy wire' include the full finals games/performances). Hopefully this list illustrates where our better players are playing on the ground, and moreover how they are precisely impacting games. This then reinforces what we know to be the current areas of the ground are well stocked for 'above average' and 'elite' talent and where looking ahead what types of players we need to attract. In the more immediate term, it shows us which players may struggle to get games and ultimately face the scrutiny of possible delistment at the end of 2020 with a good crop of priority access young kids waiting to join the club.

The following Players achieved Top 20/'Elite' league wide rankings this year:

Defenders:

Keath: 5th Intercepts Per Game, 15th Total Intercepts - additionally of KPDs, 1st for Contested Possessions, 4th for Intercept Possessions, 5th for Disposals, 10th best loss % in defensive 1-on-1's of Top 25 for Total Contests (also all rated 'elite')
Cordy: 7th Total 1%'s, 10th Total Time on Ground
Wood: 16th Total 1%'s
Daniel: 8th Kicks Per Game, 9th Effective Disposals Per Game, 10th R50 Per Game

Short Analysis: Keath brings in elite numbers from 2019 heading into 2020. We need to see Lewis Young continue to develop and bring genuine competition in with Trengove. Daniel's kicks and effectiveness is to my mind better used up the ground and reflective of the role he played before injury and what looked like instructions to give him the ball to kick. The very high number of R50's shows we were arguably too frequent to use him.


Midfielders:

English: 14th Total Hit Outs
Smith: Virtually Top 5 of every stat among Rising Stars
Lipinski: 6th Goal Assists Per Game, 17th Score Involvements Per Game (& Kicked 11.4 himself - Elite accuracy)
Hunter: (All Totals) 15th I50, 10th Marks, =1st Uncontested Possessions, 7th Effective Disposals, 6th Bounces
Macrae: (All Totals) 5th Goal Assists, 3rd Handballs, 1st Disposals, 17th Tackles, 8th Contested Possessions, =1st Uncontested Possessions, 1st Effective Disposals, 12th Score Involvements, 2nd Super Coach Score, 3rd AFL Fantasy Points Score
Dunkley: (All Totals) 8th Handballs, 8th Disposals, 5th Tackles, 7th Contested Possessions, 10th Effective Disposals, 17th Stoppage Clearances, 6th Score Involvements, 7th Super Coach Score, 5th AFL Fantasy Points Score
Bontempelli: (All Totals) 4th I50, 6th Goal Assists, 17th Kicks, 18th Tackles, 13th Contested Possessions, 13th Clearances, 3rd Centre Clearances, 3rd Score Involvements, 5th Metres Gained, 8th Super Coach Score, 10th AFL Fantasy Points

Short Analysis: We are clearly well stocked for 'elite' talent through the midfield, leaving aside seasoned players like Wallis & Liberatore who played limited games in 2019. The trio of Bonts, Macrae & Dunkley have amassed 100+ possessions or more in 8 games. They've achieved this milestone in more games than not when playing together as a dedicated trio. It doesn't need 18 AFL coaches to declare this trio are in the best 10 players in the league, unless they're voting in the Coaches Association MVP, in which case it does. And they did. Hunter's immense work rate is demonstrated in multiple high stat numbers, but with a little more care with decision making and ball in hand he could be far, far more damaging. Finding another above average/elite winger would be ideal. While youngsters in Lipinski (with ball in hand generating big numbers of Goal Assists & Score Involvements) and Smith registered good league wide returns too. Players a fair bit down the queue for a midfield spot might find it quite hard to be retained if out of contract.


Forwards:

Bruce: 17th Total Goals, 4th Total Contested Marks, 13th Total Marks I50
Naughton: 1st Total Contested Marks (8 clear of Tom Lynch), 9th Total Marks I50 (24th Total Goals)
Lloyd: 12th Total Goals, 13th Total Marks I50
Dale: 9th Goals Per Game, 19th Marks I50 Per Game

Short Analysis: Based on 2019 league rankings, we possess four of the 20 best (elite) I50 marks (by total &/or per game average, with Weightman & Ugle-Hagan also possessing strong marking ability). We also possess two of the best four contested marks across the entire competition and from any area of the ground. We've got the multi-pronged and multi-sized marking power to hurt oppositions and then we have this guy, Josh Schache, who is a nice 200cm, super athletic, agile, dead eye kick for goal whose a 'cherry on top of the forward line cake'. We've also got the best KPF in the 2020 Draft, a so-called 'Buddy Franklin Clone' coming into the club. Continued development of forward craft, forward team work and great use of I50 entries are the key to continued improvement. Seeing when Cody Weightman can break into the side in 2020 and who he moves out of side will be interesting.

Also, if Naughton, Bruce, Schache, Dale, Dickson, Lloyd, Weightman and Cavarra, Greene & Gowers between them demand six forward spots, then the match committee and coach will have to re-assess picking midfielders (McLean et al) and HBF's (Suckling, Williams et al) to play as forwards. How this would affect the selected side is interesting from the impact on midfielder rotations and scoring, as is the fact that if we go in with one midfielder less that fringe midfielders (this year McLean, Libba etc) might find it harder to get a game. Competition for spots is great, but opposition clubs will target good mids playing VFL. I'll be watching how the match committee and coach deal with having six forwards deserving of spots playing every week and how the flow on effects above are managed.

Players a fair bit down the queue for a medium forward spot might find it quite hard to be retaining if out of contract.


The depth in the playing list, for 2020, has the capacity on talent alone to see numerous players register 'above average' or 'elite' years that didn't in 2019. Including:

- Josh Schache
- Toby McLean
- Tom Libertore
- Ed Richards
- Mitch Wallis
- Jason Johannisen

With younger players in English, Lipinski, Williams, West, Bailey Smith & Lewis Young (among others) capable of breaking out/further breaking out.

At a very, very early stage of the 12 month cycle, it would appear our midfielder and forward groups are performing very, very well. Which isn't a surprise. That said, players a long way back in the queue for midfield roles and forward roles have gotten my attention as possible delistings, as per Chapter 3; Potential Outs.

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Chapter 2 - Goal Kicking Accuracy on the List

I thought it best to look at our big issue up forward, our goal kicking accuracy, just for thoroughness sake in terms of the accuracy/inaccuracy of the players on the list. In 2019 we saw (ratios in conversion averages per game):

Schache: 1.7 Goals to 0.6 Behinds (Elite)
Dickson: 1.4 Goals to 0.5 Behinds (Elite)
Bruce: 1.6 Goals to 0.9 Behinds (Very Good)
Dale: 2.1 Goals to 1.1 Behinds (Very Good)
Lloyd: 1.6 Goals to 1.4 Behinds (Average to Poor)
Naughton: 1.4 Goals to 1.2 Behinds (Average to Poor)
Gowers: 1.3 Goals to 1.4 Behinds (Putrid, in the Negative)

It's not too bad as a forward group (less Gowers). Hopefully with a lot more practice Naughton converts more and more, I have no reason to believe that won't or can't happen. Lloyd had a horror run between rounds 20-22 kicking 3.9 which has hurt his overall season conversion averages. For instance, if he broke even in that run and instead kicked 3.3, he would've registered 1.6 Goals to 1.0 Behinds, which is a good result. If Lloyd can show more care with the footy (from memory there were some greedy shots and some poor decisions to 'snap' in that run of games), then he too can improve conversion next year with Naughton. Lloyd throughout his career has kicked 3 goals on 12 seperate occasions, we'd hope to see him break that hoodoo and kick a genuine bag and register a new career best. As for Gowers, if he can't kick straight beyond his 'joes' or even just a bit better than break even, he must not play.

As for our midfielders, some are dead set pro's like Lipinski who kicked 11.4 (Elite) in 2019, and Wallis who kicked 20.3 in 2018 (SAS like Elite). Aside from Gowers who 'is' a forward, the following mids/flankers who played a good time forward in 2019 registered negative goal kicking conversion rates:

- Suckling (10.11)
- Richards (9.13)
- Liberatore (6.8)
- English (8.10)
- Williams (0.4)

The second worst offender was Hunter at 5 Goals, 9 Behinds for roughly a 35% conversion. For a player so very, very talented and an on field leader, this is simply unacceptable. He's also got a Negative goal kicking conversion over his entire career as well, but it's getting worse. He must take more care with the footy to deliver on his full potential, he's a senior player and has get his goal kicking into a Positive conversion area. He does so very many things at an elite level, and he can and should do this to a high proficiency as well with the talent he has.

The worst offender by far was Bontempelli who kicked 15 Goals, 27 Behinds (about 35% conversion). Like Hunter he's a senior player and aspiring captain, he's got to flip those numbers around. Kicking a 'Captains Point' isn't really a thing unless you're having a shot after the siren and the scores are tied, like Plugger at the SCG Final against Essendon all those years go (although he wasn't captain). Unlike Hunter though, Bontempelli has a Positive conversion over his career to date. So I faith he can turn it around, back to where it was or even a bit better. If he can build into close to 1.5 goals a game then we will win more games of footy, which increases the likelihood of higher ladder finishes and the Brownlows he should win.

Hopefully with some good coaching and specific set shot routine coaching we can start to improve in this area. Upticks in goal kicking conversion, as above, from just Naughton (59 scoring shots), Lloyd (69 scoring shots) & Bontempelli (42 scoring shots) who have arguable cases for why 2019 could be their worst conversion season and we can have some faith in a turn around if only on these three players. They had 170 scoring shots between them (7.4 shots a game), scoring 85 Goals, 85 Behinds. If these three can generate the same amount of shots (or more) and turn that conversion into something closer to 105 Goals, 65 Behinds there's hope for our goal kicking with a string of accurate goal kickers around them.

While the 20 goal differential may look big, it's only an extra 5 goals each from Naughton & Lloyd which as discussed is an achievable increase. Plus 10 goals from Bontempelli's very low water mark this year, which is also achievable as previously discussed. This would change Bontempelli's kicking to 25.17 which isn't a far fetched return. Consider that just 64 more points (11 Goals) as a team in this year's Home & Away Season would've made us the #1 ranked team in 'Scores For' in the entire competition. So if these three can adjust and improve, plus Josh Bruce to make a solid impact and Schache, Naughton and others younger players continue to develop, our ability to continue to heavily score only looks stronger. The list here, in this regard, looks good. The obvious observation is to make sure we can better restrict opponents scoring and be better overall defenders as a means of winning more games.

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Chapter 3 - Potential Outs:

I will get my potential outs out of the way quickly, like a super stuck bandaid, but I will swing back around to them in more detail later. As usual, I'm NOT hoping for players not to make the grade or perform well, but rather what I think the delistings would be today in the context of individual for a bad the wider list management concerns. We had five players move off the main/senior list in 2019, no movement of the rookie list. I think we need to move a little bit more, but not all that much than the 5 main/senior list vacancies and 0 rookie list vacancies. That said here are slightly/fractionally higher number and reasons for early question marks on their likelihood of seeing 2021 on our list.


Retirees/Delistees/Tradees (6):

(1) Jong (10 games in two years, none last year, a lot ahead of him in the queue)
(2) Lynch (9 games in four years, none last year, a lot ahead of him in the queue)
(3) Porter (Zero games in two years, a lot ahead of him in the queue)
(4) Gowers (10 games last year. Now behind Bruce, Naughton, Schache, Dale, Lloyd, Dickson & possibly Weightman. Competing with Greene & Cavarra and Weightman)
(5) Suckling (32yo in 2020, ret.)
(6) Tory D (33yo in 2020, ret.)

The fourth delisting, which I have Gowers currently in is more of a 'play off' for the decision between three fringe forwards. I think Greene has more tricks than Gowers, and that Cavarra is a different type of forward to Gowers. But a lot can change, notably how many games played, form and injuries. With Bruce, Naughton, Schache, Dale, Lloyd and resting mids, I think there's more of a need for Greene & Cavarra over Gowers. But I have an open mind to see what happens in 2020 if Gowers plays a fair bit and vastly improves his goal kicking.


Rookies:

(1) Roarke (17 games in 5 years. Just 5 last year. Career average of just 11 disposals & 2 marks. A lot ahead in the queue. He's done his three 3 years in the rookie list in 2020 which means he must be elevated or delisted. Right now, I can't get close to endorse elevating him to the main list.)

Rookie List:

2020 Upgrade: La Young & Khamis.
2020 Retain: (1) Sweet, (2) Gardner (hopefully he earns a another year as KPD depth, or if not, he's out too and we have two vacancies for the rookie draft or SSP)

Summary: Six From The Primary List, One (Or Two) From The Rookie List

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Chapter 4 - 2020 Player Re-signings (Inc. Full List of Player Contracts):

Players we should re-sign and my preferred length extension (form dependant):

7 Years: Marcus Bontempelli (if he will sign a year early)

3 Years: Hayden Crozier

2 Years: Bailey Smith (Done), Josh Schache (Done), Sam Lloyd (exempted from 30yo Rule owing to lesser amount of senior games/impact on body)

1 Year (30yo Rule): Easton Wood, Jackson Trengove, Taylor Duryea (30 in 2021)

1 Year: Will Hayes, Lathaim Vandermeer (Done), Fergus Greene, Ben Cavarra

1 Year RL Ext: Buku Khamis & Jordan Sweet (Rookies)



Full List of Player Contracts:

2020

Easton Wood (FA)
Hayden Crozier
Sam Lloyd
Jackson Trengove
Taylor Duryea
Fergus Greene
Ben Cavarra
Will Hayes
Lin Jong
Brad Lynch
Billy Gowers
Callum Porter
Tory Dickson (FA)
Matt Suckling (FA)
Lachie Young (Rookie)
Jordan Sweet (Rookie)
Roarke Smith (Rookie)
Buku Khamis (Rookie)
Ryan Gardner (Rookie)

2021

Marcus Bontempelli (RFA)
Mitch Wallis (FA)
Tom Liberatore (FA)
Pat Lipinski
Ed Richards
Zaine Cordy
Lewis Young
Bailey Williams
Laitham Vandermeer
Cody Weightman
Louis Butler
Riley Garcia

2022

Jason Johannisen (FA)
Jack Macrae (FA)
Toby McLean (FA)
Bailey Dale (FA)
Caleb Daniel (FA)
Josh Dunkley
Tim English
Bailey Smith
Rhylee West
Alex Keath (Trigger for 2023)
Josh Schache

2023

Josh Bruce

2024

Lachie Hunter
Aaron Naughton

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Chapter 5 - Free Agency:
Potential Ins & Players achieving UFA/RFA Status

Restricted Free Agent (RFA), Unrestricted Free Agent(UFA) (& 'Pre Agent') Status:

The following is the current list of our Free Agents and 'Pre Agents'. 'Pre-Agents' being players that are in the year before their free agency year/status. There's a trend amongst some AFL teams to trade players a year before their Free Agency year/status if the compo pick will be inferior to a trade pick/player. Assuming we will be at pointy end of the ladder, where a second round compo pick next year is worth around Pick 35-40, this may bring 'Pre Agent' management sharply into focus in 2020 and beyond.

2020: Only Easton Wood (UFA) could be seen as worth something as a loss as a free agent. I don't see him leaving. So nothing too worry about next year to me.
(Pre-Agents: Liberatore & Wallis. Bontempelli, although I doubt that Bontempelli stays this way)

2021: Liberatore & Wallis are both UFA. Bontempelli is an RFA. My gut says Bonts stays as captain. But if Libba & Wallis aren't getting regular games if fit, a good offer to leave might be offered by another club and who knows what happens. Watch this space I guess.
(Pre-Agents: McLean, Johannisen, Macrae, Daniel & Dale)

2022: McLean, Johannisen, Macrae, Daniel & Dale are all RFA's. Sam Power needs to have this list sorted a long way out.
(Pre-Agents: None as yet)


Free Agents In:
Using the 'Martin Money' (5 X $700,000) - I have one real interest: Zac Williams (GWS)

"Zac Williams (restricted free agent). Williams is coming off a career-best season, averaging 23.7 disposals, 5.1 marks and 4.2 rebound 50s and was one of the biggest All Australian snubs. After getting predominately used across half back during his career, Leon Cameron inserted him into the guts at stages in 2019, where he tore games apart. Most notably, the 25-year old’s performance against Collingwood in the preliminary final stands out, racking up 25 disposals, six tackles, 10 clearances and booting a goal from the midfield in the absence of Stephen Coniglio and Toby Greene."

Williams League wide 2019 'Elite' Rankings:

Ranked 7th in Total Kicks
Ranked 7th in Kicks Per Game (17.3 per game)
Ranked 7th in Total Metres Gained
Ranked 13th in Super Coach Score Per Game
Ranked 16th in Total Super Coach Score
Ranked 20th in Total Rebound 50's

I really like Williams flexibility to play HBF, wing or on ball. He's an elite kick of the football who goes at 73.4% Effeciency. Add in 23.7 Disposals (inc. 17.3 Kicks), 5.1 Marks, 6 Intercepts, 4.2 R50's, 3.1 Tackles, 2.8 Clearances, 4.7 Score Involvements 3.0 I50's & 468.4 Metres Gained. I want us to go hard.

On total metres gained for 2019, we only had two players register in the Top 40 for the stat across the competition. They were Hunter at 29th & Bonts at 5th. So bringing in run, carry and a seriously skilled metres gained player in Williams seems a good move. Williams will be 26yo in 2021 and hit his peak when the group around him will be too. He's also two years younger than Johannisen but has significant finals experience having played in 11 finals, including of three Pre-Lim Finals and one Grand Final.

The need for Williams, other than the fact he's a gun? Suckling is likely retired after next year. Duryea is 30y.o. in 2021. Johannisen should and can get freed up when there's a tag on him with Williams around, if the opposition want to put their best negator on Johannisen then Zac Williams gets a free run with bigger hurt factor by foot. Or JJ gets to do his own thing without the best opposition negator. There are also some question marks on Bailey Williams after this year. Daniel is hopefully moved forward. Roarke & Lynch are not apparently to the level at this point. And he's proving himself flexible as a HBF, Wing or genuine mid. Plus Zac Williams is far more flexible than current HBF/midfielder option. He's potentially our Shaun Burgoyne (Zac Williams 2019 vs Shaun Burgoyne 2010):

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/...id2=A&fopt2=28

We have a strong group of taller interceptors, namely Keath, Young, Crozier and Wood (Zac Williams who is also a good interceptor). These interceptors can then be feeding our rebounders to move the ball into attack through run, speed and kicking through Zac Williams, Johannisen Richards, Bailey Williams etc. I like how they could all operate together along with the flexibility on game day to move him around the ground.

Hopefully there's a big offer, as per Chapter 11, with pressure on GWS with the recently re-signed Cogs, and the huge dollars needed for re-signing Whitfield & Cameron. Hopefully a cap squeeze is enough to pressure and pry him out, with a big offer. I'd like to seriously target him for multiple reasons, but more in Chapter 11.

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Chapter 6 - 2020 Draft & 2020 Draft Points (inc. DP Trading Examples & Priority Access Player Estimates)

With 7 players off the main list, my six players from Chapter 3 plus an additional Trade (see below), I'd look at a Free Agent (Zac Williams) and at the 2020 National Draft take the three priority access players, another draftee and upgrade two rookie (La Young & Khamis) added after the National Draft (Chapter 7 deals the processes, best way). Taking six picks with attached draft points into the National Draft.

Priority Access Kids for 2020:

NGA - Jamarra Ugle-Hagan: 194cm & 79kg as of early 2019 (April Birthday). Super athletic, freakish, Buddy like generational KPF but a better mark. In 2019 he played in the U/17 exhibition games against New Zealand and the All Stars Future Clash as the AFL Grand Final curtain raiser. Played in the 2019 NAB League Premiership with Oakleigh, and booted 24 Goals in 9 Games this year for Oakleigh as a bottom age player, plus bags of 10 goals in school footy. He's a 2020 AFL Academy (Vic Country) member. Some media chatter around the NAB League finals series said Jamarra could be around Pick 1 if the draft was now/then. Still some chatter now.

NGA - Cody Raak: 192cm & 78kg as of early 2019 (October Birthday). A bottom aged KPD, who wants to develop flexibility to be a swing man. Best footy so far as a KPD. Played an exhibition game for U/17 Vic Metro. He's 2020 AFL Academy (Vic Metro) member. Cody is in our NGA and eligible for priority chess as his Father is from Zimbabwe. (Will be great to go from no Cody's on the plying list to two)

F/S - Ewan MacPherson: 178cm, 82kg as of early 2019 (January Birthday). Second Son of Super (SSOS) and younger brother to Gold Coast Sun, Darcy MacPherson. Good bottom age performances this year playing off the HBF and pinch hitting on ball. His coach at Northern loves his aggression, decision making and being a very good kick of the footy. Ewan played an exhibition game for U/17 Vic Metro, after being Vic Metro MVP last year at U/16 level (Rhylee West was the same U/16 Vic Metro years ago). Is going to be a midfielder.

I think for the 2020 draft it's best to re-conceptualise the way we look at the draft, for this draft anyway. With so many priority access players coming our way, and Ugle-Hagan needing a LOT of points, I think it's best to look at the total draft points value and not the actual pick number. As per below I'm throwing out the figure of around 3,000 Draft Points. We may well chop and change draft picks, and maybe trade down our first rounder into two second rounders. Which in conventional thinking is a 'no-no'. But the picks are all a but gone already, but the draft points are the major factor. So if we do anything that sees the points go up next year, I'd say focus on that because the rest is inconsequential if it's picks all in 2020.


Draft Points:

The finishing positions and draft points are at this early point are educated guesstimates. The final figures could rise or fall, but using fixed figures here helps to illuminate the current list management landscape and drafting/draft points/trading.

So that said, say we finish 5th next year (GCS gets a priority pick at Pick 11 in 2020), that gives us 1,783 points (Pick 15 = 1,112, (say) Pick 41 from Adelaide = 412, Pick 51 = 259) across our current three Draft Picks (with attached Draft Points), plus we can go into a maximum 1,742 points deficit (if necessary). That means we have up to 3,525 Draft Points without any trades giving us more points.

Priority Access Player Estimates (conservative):

Ugle-Hagan 2,015 draft points (being pick 2 after 20% discount)
MacPherson & Raak at say Picks 25 & 30 = 981 (after discounts at 197 points each)
= 2,996 draft points needed


2,996 - Draft Points Needed in 2020
1,783 - Draft Points With 4 Natural Picks in 2020
------
1,213 - Draft Point Deficit for 2021 (If we do nothing)


Per above we are looking at 1,213 draft points deficit. Say if we finished at 4th in 2021 (Pick 15), that's is 1,112 draft points, so we are looking at sacrificing our 2021 first rounder without any draft points trading. So doing nothing has a consequence, or we could look to various trades to avoid it, but that has implications too. I will run through some options further in this chapter.

As previously said in other threads throughout the year, Father/Sons Sam Darcy (ruck/forward - Oakleigh Chargers) and The West Twins (outside mids - Calder Cannons) are up for the 2021 draft which could make things a little easier if they end up being draftable talent and we patchwork points and look at potentially upgrading Sweet to cover off a very modest turnover of maybe just 4-5 players in 2021.

The AFEL have confirmed that the 20% NGA &/or F/S discount will remain at 20% in 2020 which is most welcome news.


Draft Points Trading Example/Option:

Strategy of First Rounder Splitting - Trading out First Rounder into two Second Rounders:

The early chatter about the 2020 National Draft is that the First Round (or so) is good value, but that it drops away quickly and later picks aren't as attractive to clubs without gun NGA options. If that's the case, it being a sellers market, we should have no problem with clubs wanting our First Round selection next year for two of their Second Rounders. Three clubs are already (11 months out) possible suitors with double Second Rounders in 2020, so there should be some healthy competition for our First Rounder:

a) Adelaide (& Bulldogs) - Circa Picks (Points) Pick 26 (729) & Pick 35 (522) = 1,251 Draft Points (139 Draft Point Gain. Not enough but something to start from)

b) Gold Coast (& Brisbane) - Circa Picks (Points) Pick 20 (912) & Pick 34 (542) = 1,454 Draft Points (342 Draft Point Gain)

c) Port Adelaide (Fremantle &/or Collingwood) - Circa Picks (Points) Pick 25 (756), Pick 27 (703) & Pick 33 (563) = 1,459 or 1,319 or 1,266 Draft Points (347/207/154 Draft Point Gain)

The splitting of our First Rounder, for conversational purposes I will set the Draft Points gain at 250 Draft Points benefit (by splitting figures above and rounding). This splitting takes our Draft Points tally to 2,033 Draft Points towards the 2,996 Draft Points needed. Our Draft Hand at this point being two Second Rounders, two Third Rounders and a Fourth Rounder. Bringing in our initial Draft Point deficit of 1,213 Draft Points into a 963 Draft Points deficit, just by splitting our First Rounder into a couple of Second Rounders.

Why do this trade if you're these clubs?:

For Adelaide they acquire a third First Rounder for the 2020 National Draft and build the hope and speed up the rebuild. Plus they still have a Third & Fourth Rounder.

For Gold Coast this trade would provide them 2 X First Rounders (covering the 2020 Pick 11 they live traded to Geelong at the 2019 Draft), plus having Fourth Rounder & Fifth Rounder.

For Port Adelaide, they don't currently have a First Rounder in 2020, but do have three Second Rounders after Live Trading in the 2019 National Draft. This trade gives them a First, Second & Third Rounder in 2020. Consolidating 2018 where they had three Draftees inside the Top 20, and 2019 having four draftees Inside the Top 25

All these clubs have good reasons to do the trade. Add in the early view that the 2020 National Draft is best early and thins out quickly. They should be highly motivated. So let the bidding begin.


Further Trading: A Player Trade To Avoid Deficit (A Path To Keeping Our 2021 First Rounder)

(i) Do the draft points trade above. Having a 963 points deficit.
(ii) I will include this in a single trade (for ease of reading) but it can be done with multiple suitors (but I will use a name from 'Pre Agent' list, Mitch Wallis, but the name can be anyone who would hold some value at say Pick 30 (later Second Round):

Out: Wallis, 2021 2nd Rounder (circa Pick 36)
In: 2020 Pick 30 (629) & 2020 Pick 46 (331) - (960 points, no 2021 draft points deficit) - & 2021 3rd Rounder

Summary:

No First Round Deficit.

In: We lose Wallis (or other) and our 2021 Second Rounder, but importantly secure back our First Rounder. To cover the loss of the Second Rounder we will have two Third Rounders & a Fourth Rounder in 2021 to cover any F/S &/or NGA. That's a good result.

Out: The exchange of Second Rounders virtually cancel each other out. Wallis when it's done, costs the other club just two Third Rounders.

That's a win-win type of trade. If Wallis left as a free agent the following year, who knows what the compo would be. At least a trade in 2020 then delivers us back a first rounder in 2021, ready to trade on Fischer McAsey et al.


Draft Picks: We'd have the Second Rounders and three Third Rounders. So with a Free Agent (Zac Williams) we'd need to remove seven players. Wallis (or other) and my list of six players. We'd need to take in six draft picks to the draft with Priority Access Players accounting for three spots and all our draft points. We'd have three spots but only use one later draft pick and pass on the last two spots at the National Draft if my reading AFL Rule 10.10 (b) (iii) is correct on Rookie upgrading (which is fleshed out next chapter). After the National Draft we could upgrade (if their 2020 was sufficient) both La Young & Khamis to round out our quota. That would then open up two Rookie Draft picks &/or SSP selections (if Gardner & Sweet are retained. Roarke can't be further extended beyond 2020 as a rookie and I don't see him being upgraded as previously mentioned).

The question most serious at hand is this; Is losing a Wallis (or similar player and/or of similar value) and/or a swap of future picks that forces us backwards in the draft order, better or worse then gaining back our first round draft pick? It's simple to me that if we trade a certain player means no deficit/we get a First Rounder and we can cover that players output, then we should work through and explore that process. But I can understand the counter argument of knowing what you get with Mitch Wallis (or other) and our second round drafting has been good, and a first rounder might be a bust anyway.

The short question (taking out all the fine details) is would you trade Mitch Wallis (or other) & a 2nd Rounder (circa Pick 33) for a 1st Rounder (circa Pick 15), 3rd Rounder & 4th Rounder?


... A Small Variable, but a Huge Impact...

If Ugle-Hagan somehow, some way was to slip to Pick 4 before attracting a bid, that brings down the draft points purchase cost down from 2,015 to 1,627 draft points (after the 20% discount). In this scenario, the draft points needed for Ugle-Hagan, Raak & MacPherson is 2,608 Draft Points. We have 2,082 points after splitting our First Rounder.

Now we are looking at a draft points deficit of just 526 Draft Points or Pick 34. If we can cover these 526 points we have our 2021 First Rounder safe and sound with all our Priority Access Players at the club too.

If we traded Wallis (or similar value player) for something around Pick 30-34 then we would avoid deficit without needing to sell of 2021 First Rounders. We lose Wallis, but get a direct Second Rounder but most importantly indirectly gain back our 2021 First Rounder. Sam Power can then live trade picks around to manage any minor discrepancies in draft points in the 2020 National Draft. Then head into the 2021 Trade Period & National Draft with ALL his picks in hand. Just a small fall from a bid at Pick 2 to Pick 4 is worth a huge 386 draft points (= Pick 43).

I think we should have in mind a potential trade, whether to execute it, or not. Particularly if our main two 'Pre Agents' in Liberatore & Wallis aren't getting the games and game time they'd like and in their post-season reviews there's a conversation like Josh Bruce had at St Kilda. That is, "we don't want you to go, but we are playing kids and others, and can't offer you the contract extension you want". If it meant we got more than the 2021 free agency compo in 2020, and the player was happy to go and our 2021 draft hand was completely in tact, that's a very good outcome. Of course other players could ask for a trade to cover our forecasted draft points deficit, of recent times Marcus Adams (trade), Jake Stringers (trade) and Dahlhaus (FA compo) would've sufficed in covering the above 526 Draft Point deficit. There's a hell of a lot of moving pieces before the list management period and I suspect draft night will have a very long list of alternatives, options and likely live trading.

Hopefully we can identify a player trade that gains us a Second Rounder to add to our split First Rounder, to either avoid a Draft Points deficit outright or with a future pick swap. Which leaves us with our First Rounder, best case with our Second Rounder too but perhaps it gets sacrificed. If we can do this as well as secure a gun free agent (Zac Williams) and then take into the National Draft six draft picks and make out like bandits with Ugle-Hagan, Raak & MacPherson & one later draft picks and La Young & Khamis Upgraded.



(My apologies to Mitch Wallis, I'm not lining you up to leave. It's just the 'Pre Agent' status and having some trade value and it's easier with one surname to follow. Another decent player may request a trade and then it's not going to happen with Wally. If you want to re-read this Chapter and insert Liberatore or McLean in for Wally then do so if you don't like the idea of Wally leaving. Or accept the loss of a first rounder and carry on.)

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Chapter 7 - Rookie Upgrades in 2020 & 2021, Rookie List Philosophy

As mentioned in the last chapter, the AFL rule about Rookie upgrading is:

Australian Football League Rules: Rule 10.10 - Inclusion of Rookie List Players Onto Primary List
....
B. Primary List

A club may apply to the AFL to transfer a Player or Players from its Rookie List onto its Primary List:

(i) (Prior to the National Draft)
(ii) (Rule 26.1 - Long Term Injury)
(iii) "At any time between the National Draft Selection Meeting and the day when Primary List is Lodged with the AFL prior to the Pre Season Draft Selection Meeting under Rule 7.1, if a Players Name has been Deleted from that Clubs List under Rule 7.6 by Lodging with the AFL the Form Prescribed in Schdule 1 as Form 33."

(Form 33: "Nomination by Club For a Player To Be Included on to the Primary List"
Rule 7.1 is just reference to the date set by AFL for the PSD. Not important.
Rule 7.6 is just formality of deleting a name off the list. Not important.)

To me, Rule 10.10 (b) (iii) seems clear that we can upgrade Rookies between the National Draft & Pre Season Draft when we lodge our paperwork. This would mean taking the six draft picks (with point attached) into the draft and grabbing the three Priority Access Players, drafting a fourth and passing on our last two draft picks which is perfectly fine to do with the rules on List Spots to Draft Picks (Points). Then we upgrade La Young & Khamis to cover off the primary list spots between the drafts. Assuming this happens, it's then just Gardner & Sweet on the rookie list heading into 2021, and we then have two Rookie Draft Picks &/or SSP Selections. Both Gardner & Sweet would be third year rookies in season 2021 so they'd need to be upgraded or delisted at the end of 2021.


Category A Rookie Philosophy & Questions:

Besides selecting the 'best available', it seems to me there's an emphasis on drafting from our own stock at Footscray VFL. We've personally taken Will Hayes (PL), Billy Gowers (RL) & Ryan Gardner (RL) in two years. While Melbourne swooped on Mitch Hannan (taken 3 Picks before us), while Ben Long's exposure playing with Footscray rocketed him up the order to St Kilda (also taken 3 Picks before us). Apart from winning multiple VFL flags and as a means to attract talent both to Footscray & Western Bulldogs, it seems our willingness to draft Footscray players brings in former AFL/VFL players into the clubs (Gowers/Carlton, Gardner/Geelong). This gives us a good insight into the players as people and their abilities to perform and our ability to track it very closely as well as knowing that they will work well within our system. I don't mind the strategy of leveraging our VFL side to help bring in talent to the AFL side, and have no issue using a rookie list spot to those our recruiting team like and VFL coaches endorse. That said, I would like to see Hayes, Gowers &/or Gardner kick on.


Category B Rookie Philosophy & Question:

In recent years, post the 'Fiji Experiment', we have had just the one Category B Rookie (Tristan Tweedie for just one season, while Buku Khamis was immediately upgraded into a Category A spot and yoyo'd back into Category B apparently) and we have had no international rookies recently (I think just one Irishman ever). As we continue to consolidate profits, and Category B Rookies being about the wage and not list spots, the question arises do we look at other avenues to bring in talent (outside of our NGA), something that the wealthier clubs have tended to dominate in the Category B space. Namely,

- US Basketballers/athletes (ie. Mason Cox and many others)
- Converts from International sports (ie. Mike Pyke)
- Converts from Athletics (ie. Mark Blicavs and many others)
- Converts from Cricket (ie. Alex Keath and many others)
- Converts from Basketball (ie. Hugh Greenwood and many, many others), and
- Irish Recruits (many, many currently listed and playing in the league)

I presume the question is, is the money and/or the time and effort of our recruiting team worth the 'chance' at bringing in decent players? If the answer is 'yes', it might be worth exploring.


Primary List Delisting & Subsequent Rookie Drafting Philosophy:

The club has shown over a long time that as a rule, it loves it players and can hang on arguably a bit too long. Bevo especially loves his players, which is a strength but could mean we still hold on a bit too long to some players. There is however a time to look at whether delisting and subsequently rookie drafting players is a sound list management strategy that works.

In one sense, I'm sure it's great for player morale. So maybe it does work if that's one of our rookie list goals. The counter argument is that the rookie list is about acquiring new talent (ie. Johannisen, La Young, Morris, Boyd etc). Historically though, this list management strategy has not worked at our club, if the test of success is games played and improving the talent on the list. Our delisted and then rookie listed players in our club history is:

Adam Contessa, Brad Fuller, Michael West, Mitch Hahn, Daniel Pearce, Brett Goodes, Josh Prudden, Roarke Smith.

I'd like to think the rule should be NOT to rookie list delisted players (they were delisted for a reason), although having a limited type of exception to the rule, for our list management strategy towards how we compose the rookie list.

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Chapter 8 - 2021 List By Position:

Defenders (16):
KPD: Keath (197cm), Le Young (197cm), Trengove (197cm) (& back up ruck), Gardner? (197cm), Cordy (193cm), Raak (192cm++) (6)
Mid Size: Wood, Crozier, La Young, Khamis (4)
Flankers: Zac Williams?, Johannisen, Duryea, Bailey Williams, Vandermeer, Butler (6)

Mids (16)
Inside: Bontempelli, Macrae, Dunkley, Bailey Smith, Libba, Lippa, McLean, Wallis? (8)
Wing/outside: Hunter, Richards, Hayes and at this early stage West, Garcia & MacPherson (6)
Rucks: English (205cm), Sweet (203cm) (2) (Back Up: Trengove 197cm)

Forwards (10)
KPF: Schache (199cm), Bruce (197cm), Naughton (195cm), Ugle-Hagan (194++cm) (4)
HHF/mid sized: Dale, Lloyd, Daniel, Greene (4)
Pockets/high pressure small: Cavarra, Weightman (2)


Plus other draftees in 2020. My wish list from our 2020 National Draft Pick/s, Rookie Draft Pick/s &/or SSP x 2 includes:

(1) A KPD to cover Trengove (30yo in 2020) & Gardner who has question marks. Happy to wait to 2021 and trade our First Rounder and target a ready made KPD or young gun (ie McAsey)
(2) A Ruck depth option to cover Trengove retiring as the back up & Sweet with a question mark (Probably a late pick or SSP option. Then maybe Sam Darcy in 2021?)
(3) A high pressure, crumbing small forward (late/rookie option)
(4) A winger (Also maybe either/both West Twins in 2021?)

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Chapter 9: Synopsis of my Four Year List Management Window:

2019: Bruce, Keath (Mature Talls) - Weightman, Butler & Garcia (Young Smalls)

2020: Zac Williams - Ugle-Hagan, Raak & MacPherson - National Draft Pick X 1, upgrade La Young & Khamis. Plus Rookie Draft &/or SSP X 2.

2021: Picks in Various Rounds, Possible Trade Below - Rights on Sam Darcy, West Twins and possible NGAs - Rookie upgrade options (or delisting owing to hitting the maximum three years); Jordan Sweet. - Guys aged 30+ in 2021: Wood (32), Trengove (31) & Lloyd (31), Duryea (30).

Trading: From 2021 onwards, provided there's sufficient salary cap, I'd like to look seriously at trading our First Rounders &/or Future Picks and go all out in our 'window' to the maximum the rules at the time permit over the future years. Looking ahead to end of 2021, with Lloyd who could be retired &/or possible question marks over our small/medium forwards, and with Trengove likely retired too, it would nice to acquire a gun target with our 2021 first rounder (having Player & Pick traded to avoid a deficit). Either a young gun KPD option (Western Bulldogs Super Fan, Fischer McAsey who may cost a bit more) or a gun small/mid-sized forward to address needs and continue to give the list a targeted injection of talent.


The Current Playing List Games Played (As of November 2019):

0-50 Games (Top Tier): Naughton, Keath, English, Dale, B. Smith, Lipinski, Richards, Le Young, La Young, West, Williams, Weightman -- (12)

0-50 Games (Second Tier): Hayes, Greene, Cavarra, Khamis, Vandermeer, Sweet, Gardner, Lynch, Roarke, Gowers, Porter, Butler, Garcia -- (13)

51-100 Games: Dunkley, Schache, Cordy, McLean, Lloyd, Dunkley, Daniel, Jong -- (8)

101-150 Games: Bruce, Wallis, Bontempelli, Hunter, Crozier, Macrae, Duryea, Liberatore, Johannisen -- (9)

151-200 Games: Suckling, Trengove, Wood -- (3)
200+ Games: N/A


Player Ages & Potential Games Played From 2022-2024:

No. Surname. Age in 2022-24. Games Estimate.

1. TBA
2. Le Young - Age 24, 25, 26 - Games 100+
3. Wallis - Age 30, 31, 32 - Games 180-200+
4. Bonts - Age 27, 28, 29 - Games 200+
5. Dunkley - Age 25, 26, 27 - Games 150+
6. B. Smith - Age 22, 23, 24 - Games 100+
7. Hunter - Age 28, 29, 30 - Games 200+
8. Trengove - Age 32, retired - Games 200+
9. Crozier - Age 29, 30, 31 - Games 200+
10. Wood - Age 33, retired - Games 200+
11. Macrae - Age 28, 29, 30 - Games 200+
12. Cordy - Age 26, 27, 28 - Games 120-150
13. Schache - Age 25, 26, 27 - Games 150+
14. West - Age 22, 23, 24 - Games 50-100
15. Duryea - Age 31, 32, retired - Games 150-180+
16. McLean - Age 26, 27, 28 - Games 150-180+
17. Bruce - Age 30, 31, 32 - Games 200+
18. Butler - Age 21, 22, 23 - Games U/K
19. Weightman - Age 21, 22, 23 - Games U/K
20. Richards - Age 22, 23, 24 - Games 120-150+
21. Libba - Age 30, 31, 32 - Games 200+
22. Lloyd - Age 32, 33, retired - Games 150+
23. Vandermeer - Age 23, 24, 25 - Games U/K
24. Khamis - Age 22, 23, 24 - Games U/K
25. Cavarra - Age 27, 28, 29 - Games U/K
26. Gowers - Age 26, 27, 28 - Games U/K
27. Lipinski - Age 24, 25, 26 - Games 100-150+
28. TBA
29. TBA
30. Greene - Age 25, 26, 27 - Games U/K
31. Dale - Age 26, 27, 28 - Games 100-150+
32. Hayes - Age 27, 28, 29 - Games U/K
33. Naughton - Age 23, 24, 25 - Games 100-150+
34. Williams - Age 25, 26, 27 - Games 100+
35. Daniel - Age 26, 27, 28 - Games 150-200+
36. TBA
37. TBA
38. Garcia - Age 21, 22, 23 - Games U/K
39. Johannisen - Age 30, 31, 32 - Games 200+
40. La Young - Age 23, 24, 25 - Games U/K
41. Sweet - Age 24, 25, 26 - Games U/K
42. Keath - Age 30, 31, 32 - Games 100-150+
43. Gardner - Age 25, 26, 27 - Games U/K
44. English - Age 25, 26, 27 - Games 100+


FA?. Zac Williams - Age 28, 29, 30 - Games 200+

2020. Ugle-Hagan - Age 20, 21, 22 - Games U/K
2020. Raak - Age 20, 21, 22 - Games U/K
2020. MacPherson - Age 20, 21, 22 - Games U/K
2020. Pick X 1 - ........ - Age 20, 21, 22 - Games U/K
2020. Rookie/SSP X 2 - ....... - TBA - Games U/K

2021 Picks - ........ (Inc. Rights on Darcy, West X 2) - Age 19, 20, 21 - Games U/K
2021 Trade Option - ....... - TBA, using First Rounder - Games U/K


This list highlights that by 2024 there's up to 26 players with 100-200 games experience. That's a perfect age profile of maturity, peak performance and experience among 26 talented to very talented players. Also it shows that as of 2024 several players look to be gone or close to retiring, namely, Bruce, Keath, Johannisen, Libba, Wallis, Duryea with Trengove, Lloyd & Wood already retired.

I've selected a hypothetical Best 22 (& hopeful Premiership Side) on the 2024 playing list above, paying attention to their age and experience by 2024. I've compared this list/side profile to the Hawthorn list/side of 2015 that just finished playing in 4 straight Grand Finals and winning the last three of them. I've done this for some context about how our list profile (age & experience) is shaping towards our premiership window versus a list that had an extended premiership window.

Dogs Best 22 in 2024:

Age 18-25yo - 7 Players
Age 26-33yo - 15 Players

Games 1-99 - 3 Players
Games 100-199 - 11 Players
Games 200+ - 8 Players

Compared to Hawthorn 2015 Premiership side (Who just won a third straight premiership):

Age 18-25 - 6 Players
Age 25-33 - 16 Players

Games 1-99 - 3 Players
Games 100-199 - 11 Players
Games 200+ - 8 Players


So the list profile looks excellent, on its own and comparison to the benchmark team of this decade. A young team that won a premiership 'early' and didn't continue to kick on immediately. This is a great start, but on its own it's just 'nice'. But if we can continue to bring in talented players, develop our kids, improving certain basic skills, develop a ruthlessness and hard edge off field and on field, and especially have coaches who have league leading effective tactics and evolving game plans to become winners. These qualities merged with the list profile we have ready in wait should be us all very happy over the next many years.

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Chapter 10 - Salary Cap (aka Total Player Payments/TPP):

The club's management of our TPP has been very good. The club by reports has been banking unused components of the annual TPP (5% banking is made from from paying 95% of the maximum 100%) and the approximate 50% of Crameri's wage the AFL let us bank whilst he was suspended. Whilst the rules say you can only bank for a maximum of 2 years (we were apparently banking a lot more before the rule too), you can move existing contracts around effectively rolling them forward within the rules. So we are holding on to a very good bank I'd suggest. Hurley, Wingard & Martin have refused offers from us $700-900,000 X 5 years. So we are still holding onto serious cap space. Additionally, this is somewhat unclear, Tom Boyd apparently 'handed back' $1,000,000. If this handing back by Tom was the front loading component of his contract, does this open up $1,000,000 in additional room in TPP banking? If no, we are still in great shape. Is yes, we are beyond flush for serious banking right now.

Forecasting ahead to 2024 with regard to our TPP, several players look to be retiring or close to retiring, namely, Bruce, Keath, Johannisen, Liberatore, Wallis, Duryea with Trengove, Lloyd & Wood already retired. Whilst this is a talented group to lose to retirement, it also presents us with an opportunity to extend the challenging window. These guys would be currently on $3,000,000 to $3,500,000 combined. As these contracts expire it then opens up more money to keep our stars signed up, and trade for good players hunting a premiership (& free agents). If Ugle-Hagan can take over from Bruce in 2025, being aged 22-23, with Naughton just 26 & Schache just 28 the forward line of KPFs is still in good shape. The mids still have a few good years in them and English will be entering the 'Grundy' phase of his career too. We need to look at longer term replacements for the loss of Keath, Wood & Trengove. Hopefully Le Young, Cordy & Raak can cement themselves as good players. Hopefully also, guys like La Young, Khamis etc can step into the tallish rebounding defender type with Crozier and many good flankers still of a good age.

This rolling opening up of salary cap could give us an extended window of 2019 to 2025 to create a longer Premiership Window. Other clubs who have had an extended window with a list make up like this recently include Geelong & Hawthorn. Geelong won 3 flags across 5 years. Hawthorn won 4 flags across 8 years. We'd have six years to add to the 2016 flag. Of course, ours players would need to show the ruthlessness, dedication and professionalism as those clubs and not just expect sustained success to happen.

Specifically on the salary cap, the current CBA has in each of 2020, 2021 & 2022 a 2% annual growth in the salary cap as well as 3% annual growth in ASA's (Additional Services Agreements, aka, individual player allowances (such as marketing) paid outside the salary cap). Then hopefully there's nice salary cap kicker when the 2023 collective bargaining agreement is agreed to. Although a recent article by Mark McGowan hinted the huge increase that the current CBA started with might not be as large in the next CBA (20% first year increase), it's reasonable to assume there's going to still be a very healthy increase for the players/salary cap with the game making huge profits. This should in turn help us to be aggressive with replacing the retirements mentioned two paragraphs up, in order to sign up our guns and also trade aggressively in the window (extra salary cap and freed up wages from retirees).

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Chapter 11 - Creating & Becoming a Club of Choice for Indigenous Talent:

Ideally, after finding a new Indigenous Programs Manager, finding an indigenous senior player would be step one for the playing group and great for Ugle-Hagan in 12 months. My Free Agent target, Zac Williams, hails from the Wiradjuri People. His grand father is a bearded elder of the Wiradjuri People, who was taken in 'The Stolen Geberation'. Williams really embraces his people's history and heritage, his own path to playing elite AFEL footy, as well as the present and the future for indigenous people. A good article here:

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/...07-gvfond.html

We'd probably have to offer Williams 5 X $700,000 (being all the 'Martin Money') and probably 5 X $200,000 in an ASA (Additional Services Agreement, as the face of our NGA - which is paid outside the cap). That's on par with what St Kilda are paying Brad Hill. GWS have reportedly offer him a contract extension but it hasn't been signed as yet. We'd have to move quickly if we haven't already, as 5 X $900,000 would be a big contract to knock back and I just can't see it getting matched by GWS if Whitfield & Cameron extend their contracts. Getting knocked back by Impey, and then Wingard & Martin who played elsewhere for less money mens we have to double our efforts and accept paying a large salary to get the desire indigenous program started. We need to pay that bit extra to get this done, and arguably Williams is a better &/or more consistent option than Impey, Wingard & Martin. Having an indigenous leader like Martin at the club upon drafting Ugle-Hagan needs to be prioritised in the short term, and helps with the longer term vision.

Williams ticks the boxes as an elite player, an indigenous leader and the cherry on top being a strike at the heart of GWS. He's an experienced AFL player with that experience to impart for most players, especially future indigenous recruits.

From 2021 with Ugle-Hagan & (hopefully) Zac Williams we would then have the nucleus of a very, very talented and exciting group of soon to be indigenous super stars. Delivering on the desire of the club and Peter Gordon to create a program that makes us an indigenous destination club and back up our NGA. With the clubs backing and desire, and a soon to be replacement Indigenous Programs Manager, hopefully we will soon have the seed to grow a program the attracts and retains very good indigenous players.

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Chapter 12 - Miscellaneous List Composition Items

Our multicultural credentials as a club that reflects our diverse club catchment are very strong with players with family ties to overseas including Jong (East Timor/Taiwan), Johannisen (South Africa), Cody Raak (Zimbabwe), Khamis (South Sudan). We have a good mix of city and country players. Our list contains players who were originally drafted from every state and territory except Queensland & NT. We have ten players (a quarter of our main/senior list) who have played/been listed at other clubs all across Australia (Including Suckling, Trengove, Crozier, Schache, Lloyd, Duryea, Keath, Bruce, Gardner & Gowers).

We have 5 father/sons with the high likelihood of it being 6 should Ewan MacPherson be drafted next year and Sam Darcy and The West Twins down the line if they make the grade. Plus Dunkley is a father/son & Richards a Grandfather/son, just not dogs ones. There's some heritage and living history with these family names. We've used our stand alone VFL team to recruit in three current players (Hayes, Gowers & Gardner with Dicko from Bendigo VFL, Sweet from North Adelaide SANFL and Cavarra from Williamstown VFL while Lachie Young played 7 games for Frankston VFL last year). Heading into 2020 we have on the list (originally drafted):

- Ten First Round Draftees (A quarter of our Primary List. Inc. Bontempelli, Weightman, Naughton, Crozier, Schache, Wallis, Richards, Bailey Smith, Macrae & English - could've been 11 but for Tom Boyd's early retirement)

- Six Second Round Draftees (Trengove, Liberatore, Dunkley, Lipinski, West, McLean)

- Eighteen Third & Fourth Round Draftees (Hunter, Daniel, Dickson, Le Young, Cordy, Wood, Lloyd, Dale, Williams, Greene, Duryea, Vandermeer, Cavarra, Hayes, Porter, Butler, Garcia & Bruce who was an ACT Zone Selection)

- Six Current Primary Listed players started their AFL careers on, and have since been elevated from, the Rookie List (Suckling, Johannisen, Keath, Gowers, Jong & Lynch - Roarke doesn't qualify anymore but he did too it briefly), and

- Five Rookie Draftees (Roarke, Khamis, Sweet, La Young, Gardner)

While Eleven 2016 Premiership Players remain on our list, plus Suckling & Duryea with Hawthorn Premierships, giving us 13 Premiership Players. Our recruiters have spread themselves across Victoria, year after year, and acquired players currently on our list from every Victorian Based TAC Cup/NAB League Team (except GWV Rebels, but as Ugle-Hagan is an original GWV Rebel and still within Vic Country, I say that box can be ticked next year).

It's a really interesting list from a lot of different angles. On analysis, we have a good number of first round draftees who have/or are building up to the hype (one quarter of the main/senior list). Additionally, having a quarter of our main/senior list having come from other clubs we clearly see the value in trading to address needs from top quality players down to Moneyball types. Our second to third round drafting is as good as any club and as we all know our Rookie Drafting has been able to bring about even more elite, long term talent, while Footscray and the VFL more broadly has given us some mature role players. Being honest, outside of Dickson there's still a few question marks about being able to make the grade long term. If they do, the VFL set up is giving us another advantage in talent spotting.

The 2020 Trade & Draft period hopefully follows the pattern above and it certainly looks set to. Ugle-Hagan (KPF) at the top end adding to our group of first rounders (making him #11 first rounder on the list). Then our continued solid second round onwards drafting with the likes of drafting Raak (KPD)& MacPherson (MID), plus a good free agent (with any luck) coming into our system from another club to address a need or otherwise improve the list. Then finished off with some late and rookie picks looking for gold. It's working for us overall, despite the imbalances that existed when JMac was in charge and some refining still to be done. On Ugle-Hagan being the clubs 11th First Round Drafted Player in 2020, if in 2021 selection goes a certain way to include all eleven players picked to play in a round together, that will mean that half of this selected side will have come from the First Round of the Draft. Which speaks for itself as being impressive. Then factor in the absence of Ayce Cordy, Christian Howard, Jake Stringer, Jarrad Grant, Andrejs Everitt/Patrick Vezpremi, Clay Smith (retirement), Nathan Hrovat & Tom Boyd (retirement) who are all playing age. Very, very impressive to have the elite talent we have..

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Chapter 13 - Review & Conclusion:

2020 List Management Decisions:

Sign up Bontempelli to a 7 year deal, with the captaincy.

I'd open up seven spots with a trade as detailed. My six main list spots (right now) come from two defenders, two mids and two forwards (& the trade). Then bringing in the elite talent as detailed. This would make it another outstanding list management period for the club, and third in a row for Sam Power's career.

The main contention I anticipate having is the last spot of my delistings, of which it could be down to Greene (if still being injured a lot), Cavarra (if not to the level) & Gowers (can't see an obvious role anymore with Naughton & Bruce). Noticeably if either really impress next year and/or if Greene stays injured, his body might not be made for AFEL footy. These spots on the outgoing list could, and most likely will, move around for that 6th outgoing player throughout the season.

There's also the chance a/some players request a trade out for more game time elsewhere. If guys are fit like McLean, Wally & Libba and not playing as much senior footy as they like, it seems logical that other clubs would talk to their managers offering tempting trades. 'Pre Agents' Libba & Wallis can walk at the end of 2021 as unrestricted free agents in any event, but if they did leave it would be better at the end of next year then 2021 for draft points purposes. This is not my first option, but that's footy, sometimes players leave for a variety of reasons. That only positive would be obviously helping with spots, salary cap and acquiring more draft points. I will be paying quiet attention to this towards the end of 2020.

Broader List Management Assessments 2020-2024:

Talent Profile: Elite
Age Profile: Very Strong, moving to Elite
Experience Profile: Very Strong, moving to Elite

Salary Cap/TPP Position: Elite
Father/Son & NGA Prospects: Elite

List Assessment by Positions:

Defenders: Strong to Very Strong
Midfielders: Elite
Forwards: Elite
Balance: Very Strong (Elite with another quality KPD, 2nd Ruck, Small Forward, more leg speed)


Quick SWOT Summary:

Strengthes:

- List, Age & Experience Profile
- Elite Midfield & Forward Groups
- Strong Total Player Payments Situation
- Priority Access to Ugle-Hagan, Raak & MacPherson
- Balanced List Generally

Weaknesses:

- Ruck Depth (One more. Although access in 2021 to Sam Darcy if he makes the grade)
- Leg Speed (More Ideally)
- Another gun Wingman (Although access in 2021 to The West Twins if they name the grade)
- Another ready Gorilla capable Key Position Defender
- Rookie List Regeneration (Hopefully an 'Opportunity' soon)

Opportunities:

- Huge levels of growth in player development still in the list
- Using considerable currently available Salary Cap to pursue a Free Agent in 2020
- Trading out a player in 2020 to avoid a deficit. Then trading our 2021 First Rounder (& more if needed) for a gun kid
- Improving players skills and improving players goal kicking
- Using some of our six consecutive profits to fund/recruit Category B rookie/s

Threats:

- Free Agency (Namely Bontempelli who will likely sign, but let's lock him away for 7 years. Also, as we remain successful by ladder standings, any Free Agency compensation picks will be granted late in the given draft rounds, thus the compensation is going to be reduced. Highlighting Pre Agent Management)
- Pre Agents - Deciding on tough calls &/or trade/s a year before Free Agency status
- Good Midfielders - If playing a lot of VFL. Expect other clubs to chase them hard
Holding onto fringe players too long, or delisting-redrafting them to the Rookie List
- Over confidence or complacency about the immense talent on the list. Players need to work hard, develop a hard edge and become ruthless on and off the field


Overall, list is in fantastic shape. But as I've previously said, that means very little if we don't develop a ruthlessness on field and off field. We need to continue to:

- Bring in talented players, with an eye to free agency and trading First Rounders & Future Picks from 2021 onwards,
- Keep developing our young players, and improving certain basic skills across the playing group,
- Develop a ruthlessness and hard edge off field and on field, and
- Most especially have our coaches be league leading in effective tactics and evolving game plans to become a ruthless elite outfit... Above all else, there are no excuses from this playing list to not play (& win) multiple Grand Finals for many years to come.