2020 Season Top 8

[GVGjr]

Normally we do a bit of a ladder predictor for the upcoming season but this year I thought rather than trying to predict the order lets just focus on the top 8 teams.

I have Essendon dropping out and I think there is a chance Collingwood will hit the wall.
The Bombers will be replaced by Port

The Hawks are the hardest to predict and who know what Melbourne will produce

So my top 8 is
Richmond
West Coast
GWS
Western Bulldogs
Brisbane
Geelong
Collingwood
Port Power

[comrade]

Normally we do a bit of a ladder predictor for the upcoming season but this year I thought rather than trying to predict the order lets just focus on the top 8 teams.

I have Essendon dropping out and I think there is a chance Collingwood will hit the wall.
The Bombers will be replaced by Port

The Hawks are the hardest to predict and who know what Melbourne will produce

So my top 8 is
Richmond
West Coast
GWS
Western Bulldogs
Brisbane
Geelong
Collingwood
Port Power

We match up nicely against the Tigers so I'd love to meet them first week for finals.

[mjp]

West Coast - 16 Wins
Richmond - 14 Wins
Port - 14 Wins
Bulldogs - 13 Wins
Collingwood - 13 Wins
Melbourne - 12 Wins
Giants - 12 Wins
Hawks - 12 Wins

So.

You might notice I have assigned pretty low win totals to the finalists. I just think it is going to be a real battle this season...if a team can go on a bit of a tear and put together 5 or 6 in a row they are going to be hard to keep out...I have 15 teams who have realistic claims of making it which means I have only put a line through 3 teams:

Gold Coast (Experience)
Freo (Chaos)
Blues (Still 12-months away)

I think Essendon and Adelaide are unlikely but there is still a lot of talent in both clubs and it wouldn't take much for either to make it.

Saints and North I have in the 'possibles' group and I still wonder how much better North would have looked last Friday with Brown - he makes a BIG difference. Saints I just wonder about the mix of bigs that they have and where they all play...and despite the hype King is still 12-months away from being more than a bit part player. Gresham in the mids was an interesting one last week and if he and Hill are around the ball then that 'same-same' midfield mix they have had under the Richo regime will be gone (for good and for GOOD).

Brisbane I don't have a lot of faith in and unless they continue to build 'Fortress Gabba' just think the much harder draw they are copping will make it a bit of a bridge too far. Their mids aren't great to me and half-backs depend on mids to help defend...just not a fan.

Geelong - well...they are just so OLD. I am not sure whether that is good or bad but Taylor hasn't looked like a contributor for a couple of years, Steven is unknown, Tuohey past 30, Hawkins the same...I wont be surprised if they rip of 11 straight wins but figure the end has to come at 'some point'.

Sydney are some hope...I just think their young players are way better than we all think and they are going to 'bounce' pretty quickly.

[westdog54]

West Coast - 16 Wins
Richmond - 14 Wins
Port - 14 Wins
Bulldogs - 13 Wins
Collingwood - 13 Wins
Melbourne - 12 Wins
Giants - 12 Wins
Hawks - 12 Wins

So.

You might notice I have assigned pretty low win totals to the finalists. I just think it is going to be a real battle this season...if a team can go on a bit of a tear and put together 5 or 6 in a row they are going to be hard to keep out...I have 15 teams who have realistic claims of making it which means I have only put a line through 3 teams:

Gold Coast (Experience)
Freo (Chaos)
Blues (Still 12-months away)

I think Essendon and Adelaide are unlikely but there is still a lot of talent in both clubs and it wouldn't take much for either to make it.

Saints and North I have in the 'possibles' group and I still wonder how much better North would have looked last Friday with Brown - he makes a BIG difference. Saints I just wonder about the mix of bigs that they have and where they all play...and despite the hype King is still 12-months away from being more than a bit part player. Gresham in the mids was an interesting one last week and if he and Hill are around the ball then that 'same-same' midfield mix they have had under the Richo regime will be gone (for good and for GOOD).

Brisbane I don't have a lot of faith in and unless they continue to build 'Fortress Gabba' just think the much harder draw they are copping will make it a bit of a bridge too far. Their mids aren't great to me and half-backs depend on mids to help defend...just not a fan.

Geelong - well...they are just so OLD. I am not sure whether that is good or bad but Taylor hasn't looked like a contributor for a couple of years, Steven is unknown, Tuohey past 30, Hawkins the same...I wont be surprised if they rip of 11 straight wins but figure the end has to come at 'some point'.

Sydney are some hope...I just think their young players are way better than we all think and they are going to 'bounce' pretty quickly.

I think you're right on win totals, You'd struggle to find a team that will go through a season losing only 4 or 5 games.

You've justified you're exclusions pretty well, but I admit I'm rather curious about Port finishing 3rd.

Where do you see their big improvement coming from?

[mjp]

You've justified you're exclusions pretty well, but I admit I'm rather curious about Port finishing 3rd.

Where do you see their big improvement coming from?

I actually don't think they need to improve much.

They are clearly focussed and missing the 8 has given them an extra few weeks training than most of the other contenders...I can see them bursting out of the gates.
They were a high i50 side last year - I have (misguided) faith in Charlie and think the kids around him are very good...I expect Motlop to deliver since I believe this is the final year of his current (and lucrative) contract.
I like Dougall as a player but getting him OUT makes it clear who the key defenders are which helps with both balance and harmony.
Houston is a good mid - he will actually play there in 2020. This will also settle Bonner and Hartlett across half back and they both kick it pretty well.
Getting Wines away from the captaincy is what I would say is a GOOD move.

I don't know really...I'm just bullish about them...sometimes there is stuff that you just 'think' will work out.

[GVGjr]

I actually don't think they need to improve much.

They are clearly focussed and missing the 8 has given them an extra few weeks training than most of the other contenders...I can see them bursting out of the gates.
They were a high i50 side last year - I have (misguided) faith in Charlie and think the kids around him are very good...I expect Motlop to deliver since I believe this is the final year of his current (and lucrative) contract.
I like Dougall as a player but getting him OUT makes it clear who the key defenders are which helps with both balance and harmony.
Houston is a good mid - he will actually play there in 2020. This will also settle Bonner and Hartlett across half back and they both kick it pretty well.
Getting Wines away from the captaincy is what I would say is a GOOD move.

I don't know really...I'm just bullish about them...sometimes there is stuff that you just 'think' will work out.

I think if Port is to have a highly successful year it's imperative that Charlie Dixon plays at least 20 games for them which has been problematic for him only having done that twice through his career. At close to his best he is a nightmare for opposition teams and if he kicks 40 plus goals they'll be around the mark

I like their depth and they have gotten value for money from their push on youth over the last 2 trade and draft periods.

The coach has put all the cards on the table and set a very high level of expectation and time will tell if they can live up to it.

[Mofra]

I think if Port is to have a highly successful year it's imperative that Charlie Dixon plays at least 20 games for them which has been problematic for him only having done that twice through his career. At close to his best he is a nightmare for opposition teams and if he kicks 40 plus goals they'll be around the mark

Charlie Dixon is arguably the most disappointing KPF of the past decade.
He has ridden on the back of 'potential' far more than Jarrad Waite ever did and has produced less. You need more than to just 'be big' to make it as a KPF at AFL level. Guys like Darling and Membrey are constantly put down as 'a little too short' to play KPF posts but they produce far more than Dixon ever has because they constantly lead and attack the ball.

[Bulldog4life]

I think if Port is to have a highly successful year it's imperative that Charlie Dixon plays at least 20 games for them which has been problematic for him only having done that twice through his career. At close to his best he is a nightmare for opposition teams and if he kicks 40 plus goals they'll be around the mark

I like their depth and they have gotten value for money from their push on youth over the last 2 trade and draft periods.

The coach has put all the cards on the table and set a very high level of expectation and time will tell if they can live up to it.

Although only a practice match it will be interesting to see how we go against them. Should Trengove come in to play on Dixon?

[GVGjr]

West Coast - 16 Wins
Richmond - 14 Wins
Port - 14 Wins
Bulldogs - 13 Wins
Collingwood - 13 Wins
Melbourne - 12 Wins
Giants - 12 Wins
Hawks - 12 Wins

So.

You might notice I have assigned pretty low win totals to the finalists. I just think it is going to be a real battle this season...if a team can go on a bit of a tear and put together 5 or 6 in a row they are going to be hard to keep out...I have 15 teams who have realistic claims of making it which means I have only put a line through 3 teams:
.

While I rate Melbourne's list it would be a considerable bounce for them to move to say the 6th position. I know their season in 2019 was dismantled before it really began but providing there are no ongoing scars with the playing group then it's quite possible.

[Bulldog Joe]

Injury issues to class players will make an impact and that is impossible to predict.

Having said that I have a top 6 of

Bulldogs
Richmond
GWS
Collingwood
West Coast
Brisbane

The other spots in the eight between
Hawthorn, St Kilda, North, Port Adelaide and Sydney.

I see some chance of Carlton putting it together long enough to threaten.

I am really expecting (or is it merely hoping) that Geelong will drop right off.

[GVGjr]

MJP, The Brisbane fall is the most interesting to me. I can see them sliding a bit but not falling off a cliff

That is also a lot of changes to the top 8 you're tipping

[mjp]

MJP, The Brisbane fall is the most interesting to me. I can see them sliding a bit but not falling off a cliff

That is also a lot of changes to the top 8 you're tipping

I know right!

I just think things are going to compress a lot with 6-8 teams between 9 and 12 wins...so it was just more fun to project change than not change.

Brisbane in particular I am still not a believer I'm afraid. I like them. I like the 'vibe' they have going on up there (and I get to talk to people up there who tell me nothing but good things about the 'inside' of the club) but...I don't like the Hipwood/Big O double act, I think Martin is done, Neale is a good player but a selfish player who 'wants his' and has yet to show the ability to cope with a tag, Andrews doesn't mark which keeps his opponent and associated small forwards in the game, Witherden and Ah Chee are likely playing behind the ball with Rich...are any of those three playing on anyone...Charlie C keeps running back towards goal. Linc wants to take mark of the year. I don't know about any of it.

I'm sure they are better than the sum of their parts - they must be, they won a lot of games last year - but last year was straight sets and out and I don't see where the improvement comes from.

[comrade]

I know right!

I just think things are going to compress a lot with 6-8 teams between 9 and 12 wins...so it was just more fun to project change than not change.

Brisbane in particular I am still not a believer I'm afraid. I like them. I like the 'vibe' they have going on up there (and I get to talk to people up there who tell me nothing but good things about the 'inside' of the club) but...I don't like the Hipwood/Big O double act, I think Martin is done, Neale is a good player but a selfish player who 'wants his' and has yet to show the ability to cope with a tag, Andrews doesn't mark which keeps his opponent and associated small forwards in the game, Witherden and Ah Chee are likely playing behind the ball with Rich...are any of those three playing on anyone...Charlie C keeps running back towards goal. Linc wants to take mark of the year. I don't know about any of it.

I'm sure they are better than the sum of their parts - they must be, they won a lot of games last year - but last year was straight sets and out and I don't see where the improvement comes from.

Love the analysis.

While you're in the posting mood, tell us why you have us in the top 4...

[mjp]

...tell us why you have us in the top 4...

Top 4. So, last year I said top 6 and this year I think we should really push a little further...

For me it is primarily an attitude thing that will see us rise a couple of steps. I honestly could have cared less about kicking 20-goals in a row against Essendon or 12 in a row against the Giants - those teams were terrible on those days and I know you can only beat who is out there, BUT the lessons learned in a couple of games by players and coaches alike:

1/. Carlton
2/. North
3/. GWS final

Should have long lasting consequences. I think the community at large recognises that we have accumulated a great deal of talent since the 2014 season but so much of it has been inconsistent...we haven't been a "REAL" footy team for a couple of years now and I will keep pointing to the Matty Boyd concussion / premature retirement as a key issue. You need guys from the rookie list/low in the draft order who have done it the hard way to tie things together. You need guys at their second (and third) club who understand they need to take their chances when they get them if they want to play. You need guys who are fighting back from long-term injury and finding things aren't exactly the way they remember them. To quote Al Pacino, you need guys prepared to die for that inch. We have had a lot of guys who experienced early success and thought they were premiership players...when the reality is that they just happened to play in a premiership side (you can figure out the difference in those two categories yourself but both groups have medals around their necks).

I see this hard edge in a good number of our players right now - and the lessons learned in those critical 'effort based' defeats last year that the outcome of the game isn't about how good you might be but about who is prepared to sacrifice for the team...and that there is no magic switch you can flip to turn things around have been hard learned (but learned).

Don't get me wrong - you need high-end talent and in Bont + Naughton we 100% have that. But you need more than that. You need talented guys who are determined to get everything out of themselves. You need players who understand that they are playing on the edge of a cliff every week and if they don't hold the line then they will go over the edge (out of the side) and maybe never to return.

Add to ALL of that a contest happy game-style that has the ability to score from anywhere on the field AND a much better defensive group - well led by Crozier (not a typo) who are prepared to both work together AND sacrifice both their bodies and goals to their direct opponent to help one another out - that I expect will lead to a turnaround in our points against tally (and of this I feel very confident).

Do I think there will be a couple of disappointing losses? Yes - because I think there are still a few guys in the current MC best 22 (and no, I'm not naming them 'cos I have promised to be positive) who are still happiest when they have the ball vs when WE are playing winning footy and that causes fractures and missteps...but, I think the weight of numbers will see us through and I think there will be a few changes in the perceived best 22 between R1 and, say, R12. Once we get rolling, well...I'm really hoping for a season the likes of which I haven't gotten to enjoy since 1998. (I'm obviously talking H+A here cos in 98 we were cooked in that r22 game vs NM).

p.s. We can withstand almost ANY injury to ANY player and still be very competitive but the two we need on the park the most are Bont and Naughton...without those two, who knows.

[GVGjr]

Top 4. So, last year I said top 6 and this year I think we should really push a little further...

For me it is primarily an attitude thing that will see us rise a couple of steps. I honestly could have cared less about kicking 20-goals in a row against Essendon or 12 in a row against the Giants - those teams were terrible on those days and I know you can only beat who is out there, BUT the lessons learned in a couple of games by players and coaches alike:

1/. Carlton
2/. North
3/. GWS final

Should have long lasting consequences. I think the community at large recognises that we have accumulated a great deal of talent since the 2014 season but so much of it has been inconsistent...we haven't been a "REAL" footy team for a couple of years now and I will keep pointing to the Matty Boyd concussion / premature retirement as a key issue. You need guys from the rookie list/low in the draft order who have done it the hard way to tie things together. You need guys at their second (and third) club who understand they need to take their chances when they get them if they want to play. You need guys who are fighting back from long-term injury and finding things aren't exactly the way they remember them. To quote Al Pacino, you need guys prepared to die for that inch. We have had a lot of guys who experienced early success and thought they were premiership players...when the reality is that they just happened to play in a premiership side (you can figure out the difference in those two categories yourself but both groups have medals around their necks).

I see this hard edge in a good number of our players right now - and the lessons learned in those critical 'effort based' defeats last year that the outcome of the game isn't about how good you might be but about who is prepared to sacrifice for the team...and that there is no magic switch you can flip to turn things around have been hard learned (but learned).

Don't get me wrong - you need high-end talent and in Bont + Naughton we 100% have that. But you need more than that. You need talented guys who are determined to get everything out of themselves. You need players who understand that they are playing on the edge of a cliff every week and if they don't hold the line then they will go over the edge (out of the side) and maybe never to return.

Add to ALL of that a contest happy game-style that has the ability to score from anywhere on the field AND a much better defensive group - well led by Crozier (not a typo) who are prepared to both work together AND sacrifice both their bodies and goals to their direct opponent to help one another out - that I expect will lead to a turnaround in our points against tally (and of this I feel very confident).

Do I think there will be a couple of disappointing losses? Yes - because I think there are still a few guys in the current MC best 22 (and no, I'm not naming them 'cos I have promised to be positive) who are still happiest when they have the ball vs when WE are playing winning footy and that causes fractures and missteps...but, I think the weight of numbers will see us through and I think there will be a few changes in the perceived best 22 between R1 and, say, R12. Once we get rolling, well...I'm really hoping for a season the likes of which I haven't gotten to enjoy since 1998. (I'm obviously talking H+A here cos in 98 we were cooked in that r22 game vs NM).

p.s. We can withstand almost ANY injury to ANY player and still be very competitive but the two we need on the park the most are Bont and Naughton...without those two, who knows.

There are a few points I wanted to comment on

While injuries have been a convenient excuse for the last couple of years along with age and experience it isn't really an accurate reason. Clubs should plan for contingencies and that includes covering injuries. It's taken 2 years but we have finally acknowledged and addressed they fact that we were light on for key position players. I agree that (God forbid) injuries to Bontempelli, Macrae and Naughton will make it hard however, it also provides opportunities for others to step up. If we have balanced the list correctly or at least got the list close it shouldn't be an excuse.

Glad you mentioned Crozier who has been impressive for us since he arrived and I think he has improved each year as well.
He's a leader of the back line and is always organising other defenders. He's quick to leave his man when needed to provide an extra number in a contest plus the combination of his marking and his kicking have been a huge positive for us. Then you notice his tackling is also impressive. He's a smart player and should be an automatic selection for the match committee

I hope we can address some of our poor 'effort' based performances from last year as we either didn't bring the right energy to the game or we didn't plan for a highly motivated opposition. I've mentioned this before but showing up with the right energy and focus is something that every player can control.

I also hope we consider using a tagger from time to time. We can't let the teams better players go unchecked and assume we will out shoot them on the day.

And finally, after the loss to a manic GWS in the elimination final it's given the players and coaches a yardstick to measure against and boy do we need to make sure we aren't caught out again.

If we have learned some lessons from last year we will be very competitive and a top 5 spot is there for the taking.