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  1. #1
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    2020 Season Top 8

    Normally we do a bit of a ladder predictor for the upcoming season but this year I thought rather than trying to predict the order lets just focus on the top 8 teams.

    I have Essendon dropping out and I think there is a chance Collingwood will hit the wall.
    The Bombers will be replaced by Port

    The Hawks are the hardest to predict and who know what Melbourne will produce

    So my top 8 is
    Richmond
    West Coast
    GWS
    Western Bulldogs
    Brisbane
    Geelong
    Collingwood
    Port Power
    Western Bulldogs Football Club "Where it's cool to drool"

  2. #2
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    Re: 2020 Season Top 8

    Quote Originally Posted by GVGjr View Post
    Normally we do a bit of a ladder predictor for the upcoming season but this year I thought rather than trying to predict the order lets just focus on the top 8 teams.

    I have Essendon dropping out and I think there is a chance Collingwood will hit the wall.
    The Bombers will be replaced by Port

    The Hawks are the hardest to predict and who know what Melbourne will produce

    So my top 8 is
    Richmond
    West Coast
    GWS
    Western Bulldogs
    Brisbane
    Geelong
    Collingwood
    Port Power
    We match up nicely against the Tigers so I'd love to meet them first week for finals.
    Our 1954 premiership players are our heroes, and it has to be said that Charlie was their hero.

  3. #3
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    Re: 2020 Season Top 8

    West Coast - 16 Wins
    Richmond - 14 Wins
    Port - 14 Wins
    Bulldogs - 13 Wins
    Collingwood - 13 Wins
    Melbourne - 12 Wins
    Giants - 12 Wins
    Hawks - 12 Wins

    So.

    You might notice I have assigned pretty low win totals to the finalists. I just think it is going to be a real battle this season...if a team can go on a bit of a tear and put together 5 or 6 in a row they are going to be hard to keep out...I have 15 teams who have realistic claims of making it which means I have only put a line through 3 teams:

    Gold Coast (Experience)
    Freo (Chaos)
    Blues (Still 12-months away)

    I think Essendon and Adelaide are unlikely but there is still a lot of talent in both clubs and it wouldn't take much for either to make it.

    Saints and North I have in the 'possibles' group and I still wonder how much better North would have looked last Friday with Brown - he makes a BIG difference. Saints I just wonder about the mix of bigs that they have and where they all play...and despite the hype King is still 12-months away from being more than a bit part player. Gresham in the mids was an interesting one last week and if he and Hill are around the ball then that 'same-same' midfield mix they have had under the Richo regime will be gone (for good and for GOOD).

    Brisbane I don't have a lot of faith in and unless they continue to build 'Fortress Gabba' just think the much harder draw they are copping will make it a bit of a bridge too far. Their mids aren't great to me and half-backs depend on mids to help defend...just not a fan.

    Geelong - well...they are just so OLD. I am not sure whether that is good or bad but Taylor hasn't looked like a contributor for a couple of years, Steven is unknown, Tuohey past 30, Hawkins the same...I wont be surprised if they rip of 11 straight wins but figure the end has to come at 'some point'.

    Sydney are some hope...I just think their young players are way better than we all think and they are going to 'bounce' pretty quickly.
    What should I tell her? She's going to ask.

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  5. #4
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    Re: 2020 Season Top 8

    Quote Originally Posted by mjp View Post
    West Coast - 16 Wins
    Richmond - 14 Wins
    Port - 14 Wins
    Bulldogs - 13 Wins
    Collingwood - 13 Wins
    Melbourne - 12 Wins
    Giants - 12 Wins
    Hawks - 12 Wins

    So.

    You might notice I have assigned pretty low win totals to the finalists. I just think it is going to be a real battle this season...if a team can go on a bit of a tear and put together 5 or 6 in a row they are going to be hard to keep out...I have 15 teams who have realistic claims of making it which means I have only put a line through 3 teams:

    Gold Coast (Experience)
    Freo (Chaos)
    Blues (Still 12-months away)

    I think Essendon and Adelaide are unlikely but there is still a lot of talent in both clubs and it wouldn't take much for either to make it.

    Saints and North I have in the 'possibles' group and I still wonder how much better North would have looked last Friday with Brown - he makes a BIG difference. Saints I just wonder about the mix of bigs that they have and where they all play...and despite the hype King is still 12-months away from being more than a bit part player. Gresham in the mids was an interesting one last week and if he and Hill are around the ball then that 'same-same' midfield mix they have had under the Richo regime will be gone (for good and for GOOD).

    Brisbane I don't have a lot of faith in and unless they continue to build 'Fortress Gabba' just think the much harder draw they are copping will make it a bit of a bridge too far. Their mids aren't great to me and half-backs depend on mids to help defend...just not a fan.

    Geelong - well...they are just so OLD. I am not sure whether that is good or bad but Taylor hasn't looked like a contributor for a couple of years, Steven is unknown, Tuohey past 30, Hawkins the same...I wont be surprised if they rip of 11 straight wins but figure the end has to come at 'some point'.

    Sydney are some hope...I just think their young players are way better than we all think and they are going to 'bounce' pretty quickly.
    I think you're right on win totals, You'd struggle to find a team that will go through a season losing only 4 or 5 games.

    You've justified you're exclusions pretty well, but I admit I'm rather curious about Port finishing 3rd.

    Where do you see their big improvement coming from?

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    Re: 2020 Season Top 8

    Injury issues to class players will make an impact and that is impossible to predict.

    Having said that I have a top 6 of

    Bulldogs
    Richmond
    GWS
    Collingwood
    West Coast
    Brisbane

    The other spots in the eight between
    Hawthorn, St Kilda, North, Port Adelaide and Sydney.

    I see some chance of Carlton putting it together long enough to threaten.

    I am really expecting (or is it merely hoping) that Geelong will drop right off.
    Life is to be Enjoyed not Endured

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    Re: 2020 Season Top 8

    Quote Originally Posted by westdog54 View Post
    You've justified you're exclusions pretty well, but I admit I'm rather curious about Port finishing 3rd.

    Where do you see their big improvement coming from?
    I actually don't think they need to improve much.

    They are clearly focussed and missing the 8 has given them an extra few weeks training than most of the other contenders...I can see them bursting out of the gates.
    They were a high i50 side last year - I have (misguided) faith in Charlie and think the kids around him are very good...I expect Motlop to deliver since I believe this is the final year of his current (and lucrative) contract.
    I like Dougall as a player but getting him OUT makes it clear who the key defenders are which helps with both balance and harmony.
    Houston is a good mid - he will actually play there in 2020. This will also settle Bonner and Hartlett across half back and they both kick it pretty well.
    Getting Wines away from the captaincy is what I would say is a GOOD move.

    I don't know really...I'm just bullish about them...sometimes there is stuff that you just 'think' will work out.
    What should I tell her? She's going to ask.

  8. #7
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    Re: 2020 Season Top 8

    MJP, The Brisbane fall is the most interesting to me. I can see them sliding a bit but not falling off a cliff

    That is also a lot of changes to the top 8 you're tipping
    Western Bulldogs Football Club "Where it's cool to drool"

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    Re: 2020 Season Top 8

    I will go with the following, in no order:

    Richmond
    West Coast
    GWS
    Western Bulldogs
    Geelong
    Collingwood
    Port
    Brisbane with no confidence
    FFC: Established 1883

    Premierships: AFL 1954, 2016 VFA - 1898,99,1900, 1908, 1913, 1919-20, 1923-24, VFL: 2014, 2016 . Champions of Victoria 1924. AFLW - 2018.

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    Re: 2020 Season Top 8

    Quote Originally Posted by GVGjr View Post
    MJP, The Brisbane fall is the most interesting to me. I can see them sliding a bit but not falling off a cliff

    That is also a lot of changes to the top 8 you're tipping
    I know right!

    I just think things are going to compress a lot with 6-8 teams between 9 and 12 wins...so it was just more fun to project change than not change.

    Brisbane in particular I am still not a believer I'm afraid. I like them. I like the 'vibe' they have going on up there (and I get to talk to people up there who tell me nothing but good things about the 'inside' of the club) but...I don't like the Hipwood/Big O double act, I think Martin is done, Neale is a good player but a selfish player who 'wants his' and has yet to show the ability to cope with a tag, Andrews doesn't mark which keeps his opponent and associated small forwards in the game, Witherden and Ah Chee are likely playing behind the ball with Rich...are any of those three playing on anyone...Charlie C keeps running back towards goal. Linc wants to take mark of the year. I don't know about any of it.

    I'm sure they are better than the sum of their parts - they must be, they won a lot of games last year - but last year was straight sets and out and I don't see where the improvement comes from.
    What should I tell her? She's going to ask.

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  12. #10
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    Re: 2020 Season Top 8

    Quote Originally Posted by mjp View Post
    I know right!

    I just think things are going to compress a lot with 6-8 teams between 9 and 12 wins...so it was just more fun to project change than not change.

    Brisbane in particular I am still not a believer I'm afraid. I like them. I like the 'vibe' they have going on up there (and I get to talk to people up there who tell me nothing but good things about the 'inside' of the club) but...I don't like the Hipwood/Big O double act, I think Martin is done, Neale is a good player but a selfish player who 'wants his' and has yet to show the ability to cope with a tag, Andrews doesn't mark which keeps his opponent and associated small forwards in the game, Witherden and Ah Chee are likely playing behind the ball with Rich...are any of those three playing on anyone...Charlie C keeps running back towards goal. Linc wants to take mark of the year. I don't know about any of it.

    I'm sure they are better than the sum of their parts - they must be, they won a lot of games last year - but last year was straight sets and out and I don't see where the improvement comes from.
    Love the analysis.

    While you're in the posting mood, tell us why you have us in the top 4...
    Our 1954 premiership players are our heroes, and it has to be said that Charlie was their hero.

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    Re: 2020 Season Top 8

    Quote Originally Posted by mjp View Post
    Brisbane in particular I am still not a believer I'm afraid. I like them. I like the 'vibe' they have going on up there (and I get to talk to people up there who tell me nothing but good things about the 'inside' of the club) but...I don't like the Hipwood/Big O double act, I think Martin is done, Neale is a good player but a selfish player who 'wants his' and has yet to show the ability to cope with a tag, Andrews doesn't mark which keeps his opponent and associated small forwards in the game, Witherden and Ah Chee are likely playing behind the ball with Rich...are any of those three playing on anyone...Charlie C keeps running back towards goal. Linc wants to take mark of the year. I don't know about any of it.
    Teams may just elect to go head to head with Neale and tag Zorko who absolutely cannot handle a tag.

    I'm unconvinced on their second tall forward - given Skinner has been given a run as a tall forward/ruck relief hybrid I don't think Fagan is convinced either. They can expect an increase in output from Raynor and McLuggage though.
    Western Bulldogs: 2016 Premiers

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    Re: 2020 Season Top 8

    Quote Originally Posted by Mofra View Post
    They can expect an increase in output from Raynor and McLuggage though.
    Why can they?

    What has Raynor shown to this point except that he might be a small forward best suited to play out of the goal-square De Goey style...but Cameron already does that...so...is he going to do stuff that he hasn't shown he could already do? Is he going to become a mid? Well...I'm not sold on that. Where does he PLAY??
    What should I tell her? She's going to ask.

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    Re: 2020 Season Top 8

    Quote Originally Posted by comrade View Post
    ...tell us why you have us in the top 4...
    Top 4. So, last year I said top 6 and this year I think we should really push a little further...

    For me it is primarily an attitude thing that will see us rise a couple of steps. I honestly could have cared less about kicking 20-goals in a row against Essendon or 12 in a row against the Giants - those teams were terrible on those days and I know you can only beat who is out there, BUT the lessons learned in a couple of games by players and coaches alike:

    1/. Carlton
    2/. North
    3/. GWS final

    Should have long lasting consequences. I think the community at large recognises that we have accumulated a great deal of talent since the 2014 season but so much of it has been inconsistent...we haven't been a "REAL" footy team for a couple of years now and I will keep pointing to the Matty Boyd concussion / premature retirement as a key issue. You need guys from the rookie list/low in the draft order who have done it the hard way to tie things together. You need guys at their second (and third) club who understand they need to take their chances when they get them if they want to play. You need guys who are fighting back from long-term injury and finding things aren't exactly the way they remember them. To quote Al Pacino, you need guys prepared to die for that inch. We have had a lot of guys who experienced early success and thought they were premiership players...when the reality is that they just happened to play in a premiership side (you can figure out the difference in those two categories yourself but both groups have medals around their necks).

    I see this hard edge in a good number of our players right now - and the lessons learned in those critical 'effort based' defeats last year that the outcome of the game isn't about how good you might be but about who is prepared to sacrifice for the team...and that there is no magic switch you can flip to turn things around have been hard learned (but learned).

    Don't get me wrong - you need high-end talent and in Bont + Naughton we 100% have that. But you need more than that. You need talented guys who are determined to get everything out of themselves. You need players who understand that they are playing on the edge of a cliff every week and if they don't hold the line then they will go over the edge (out of the side) and maybe never to return.

    Add to ALL of that a contest happy game-style that has the ability to score from anywhere on the field AND a much better defensive group - well led by Crozier (not a typo) who are prepared to both work together AND sacrifice both their bodies and goals to their direct opponent to help one another out - that I expect will lead to a turnaround in our points against tally (and of this I feel very confident).

    Do I think there will be a couple of disappointing losses? Yes - because I think there are still a few guys in the current MC best 22 (and no, I'm not naming them 'cos I have promised to be positive) who are still happiest when they have the ball vs when WE are playing winning footy and that causes fractures and missteps...but, I think the weight of numbers will see us through and I think there will be a few changes in the perceived best 22 between R1 and, say, R12. Once we get rolling, well...I'm really hoping for a season the likes of which I haven't gotten to enjoy since 1998. (I'm obviously talking H+A here cos in 98 we were cooked in that r22 game vs NM).

    p.s. We can withstand almost ANY injury to ANY player and still be very competitive but the two we need on the park the most are Bont and Naughton...without those two, who knows.
    What should I tell her? She's going to ask.

  16. #14
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    Re: 2020 Season Top 8

    Quote Originally Posted by mjp View Post
    I actually don't think they need to improve much.

    They are clearly focussed and missing the 8 has given them an extra few weeks training than most of the other contenders...I can see them bursting out of the gates.
    They were a high i50 side last year - I have (misguided) faith in Charlie and think the kids around him are very good...I expect Motlop to deliver since I believe this is the final year of his current (and lucrative) contract.
    I like Dougall as a player but getting him OUT makes it clear who the key defenders are which helps with both balance and harmony.
    Houston is a good mid - he will actually play there in 2020. This will also settle Bonner and Hartlett across half back and they both kick it pretty well.
    Getting Wines away from the captaincy is what I would say is a GOOD move.

    I don't know really...I'm just bullish about them...sometimes there is stuff that you just 'think' will work out.
    I think if Port is to have a highly successful year it's imperative that Charlie Dixon plays at least 20 games for them which has been problematic for him only having done that twice through his career. At close to his best he is a nightmare for opposition teams and if he kicks 40 plus goals they'll be around the mark

    I like their depth and they have gotten value for money from their push on youth over the last 2 trade and draft periods.

    The coach has put all the cards on the table and set a very high level of expectation and time will tell if they can live up to it.
    Western Bulldogs Football Club "Where it's cool to drool"

  17. #15
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    Re: 2020 Season Top 8

    Quote Originally Posted by mjp View Post
    West Coast - 16 Wins
    Richmond - 14 Wins
    Port - 14 Wins
    Bulldogs - 13 Wins
    Collingwood - 13 Wins
    Melbourne - 12 Wins
    Giants - 12 Wins
    Hawks - 12 Wins

    So.

    You might notice I have assigned pretty low win totals to the finalists. I just think it is going to be a real battle this season...if a team can go on a bit of a tear and put together 5 or 6 in a row they are going to be hard to keep out...I have 15 teams who have realistic claims of making it which means I have only put a line through 3 teams:
    .
    While I rate Melbourne's list it would be a considerable bounce for them to move to say the 6th position. I know their season in 2019 was dismantled before it really began but providing there are no ongoing scars with the playing group then it's quite possible.
    Western Bulldogs Football Club "Where it's cool to drool"

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