The run home

[bornadog]

Good on you for having a go but predicting our form at the moment is an exercise in futility!

If we play like we did against Port we should win more than we lose. If we play like we did against Richmond we will be lucky to win a game.

If we face Freo in Perth it's 50/50 at best I reckon.

Maybe a wish list not a prediction

[The Adelaide Connection]

We really need to pick up some percentage too. Makes battering Adelaide even more vital.

[MrMahatma]

Losing to Port just hurts so much when you think about the bigger impact that has on the season.

We prob need an upset, and to win all we should expect to, and then it’s finals.

Genuinely, anyone can win once in the finals. I hope we get there.

[Sedat]

Good time to catch Brisbane, who have some injuries and are also coming off a 4 day break. We should take heart from the fact that our back half and midfield/stoppage systems worked very well against the top of the ladder team on their home deck, and that if we can maintain those parts of our game as well as improve the connection between our mids and forwards we can beat the Lions.

[Mofra]

Good time to catch Brisbane, who have some injuries and are also coming off a 4 day break. We should take heart from the fact that our back half and midfield/stoppage systems worked very well against the top of the ladder team on their home deck, and that if we can maintain those parts of our game as well as improve the connection between our mids and forwards we can beat the Lions.

Not to mention Keath is a better match up on Hipwood than he is on Dixon.

Crozier out does hurt though, there's an intercept mark per quarter at least we have to find.

[Rocket Science]

Righto. Crunch time.

Barring anything unheard of like Essendon suddenly morphing into a competent footy club the numbers suggest there's effectively 5 teams in the mix for the final 3 spots in the eight; RICH, COLL, MELB, GWS and the good guys.

Perusing the fixture and venturing a very unscientific crack at what might play out ...

Richmond (currently 6th, 26 points) seems the least vulnerable; they're building well, have a game in hand on us and only 2 of their final 6 games are against teams above them, with a couple of gifts versus ESS & the Crows. The science says you can pretty much lock them in.

Collingwood (currently 7th, 26 points) seem the most vulnerable; wracked by injury and awfully patchy form, their only wins in the past month came against the Crows and a Swans side that pushed them (though they did beat the Cats just prior) and of their 5 remaining games they have Brisbane and Port to contend with plus Carlton who I suspect will get up for that one to kick the old rival. The way they're going remaining games versus the Roos and Suns don't seem like gimmes either. The hill's too big here, I think they miss.

Melbourne (currently 8th, 24 points) it shits me to concede may well retain or improve their spot. They're finding some timely form, have a game in hand on us (against the pitiful Bombres to boot), have us comfortably covered in percentage, and of their final 6 games only one is against a team presently above them. They're also the only team in this mix we play ... Fair to say there's a little bit riding on Saturday's game.

GWS (currently 9th, 24 points) is another that could readily push in but is a trickier thing to gauge. The Swans just pantsed them and they've got the Eagles up next but also have a game in hand on us coupled with a gift against Adelaide, and gettable wins versus Freo & Carlton, but also cop the Saints last up. Like us it largely hinges on what GWS team shows up while noting they're about to regain two ripper humans in Greene & Davis ... I fear they pinch Collingwood's spot.

The good guys (currently 10th, 24 points) are a wholly different proposition with Hunter, Naughton and Dunks at their disposal and *should* scoop up 8 points against Freo & the fading Hawks who just lost Sicily for the year. It's a mammoth ask versus the Handbaggers and Eagles (suspect we might push the Cats without winning)on top of a high stakes tilt versus the Dees which is rather less critical to their chances of making it than ours. Truly sink or swim time.

In summary, even if we heat up I fear it'll be too late given the obstacles or lack thereof for others. Richmond are safe and I expect Melbourne to kick on, annoyingly, meaning lest Bucks can stop the rot it's between us and the Giants for the Pies' spot.

We need wins. duh. But on top of that it'd be a very fine thing if GWS slips versus any or all of Freo, Carlton and Melbourne. What's equally tantalising is there's a veritable bee's wang between their percentage and ours.

We basically need Bevo to orchestrate another '16 finals run before the finals even commence. Over to you coach.

[bornadog]

Great summary RS. As Bevo said this morning, we probably can only afford to lose one more game, which means everyone except Weagles as the most likely.

[comrade]

Righto. Crunch time.

Barring anything unheard of like Essendon suddenly morphing into a competent footy club the numbers suggest there's effectively 5 teams in the mix for the final 3 spots in the eight; RICH, COLL, MELB, GWS and the good guys.

Perusing the fixture and venturing a very unscientific crack at what might play out ...

Richmond (currently 6th, 26 points) seems the least vulnerable; they're building well, have a game in hand on us and only 2 of their final 6 games are against teams above them, with a couple of gifts versus ESS & the Crows. The science says you can pretty much lock them in.

Collingwood (currently 7th, 26 points) seem the most vulnerable; wracked by injury and awfully patchy form, their only wins in the past month came against the Crows and a Swans side that pushed them (though they did beat the Cats just prior) and of their 5 remaining games they have Brisbane and Port to contend with plus Carlton who I suspect will get up for that one to kick the old rival. The way they're going remaining games versus the Roos and Suns don't seem like gimmes either. The hill's too big here, I think they miss.

Melbourne (currently 8th, 24 points) it shits me to concede may well retain or improve their spot. They're finding some timely form, have a game in hand on us (against the pitiful Bombres to boot), have us comfortably covered in percentage, and of their final 6 games only one is against a team presently above them. They're also the only team in this mix we play ... Fair to say there's a little bit riding on Saturday's game.

GWS (currently 9th, 24 points) is another that could readily push in but is a trickier thing to gauge. The Swans just pantsed them and they've got the Eagles up next but also have a game in hand on us coupled with a gift against Adelaide, and gettable wins versus Freo & Carlton, but also cop the Saints last up. Like us it largely hinges on what GWS team shows up while noting they're about to regain two ripper humans in Greene & Davis ... I fear they pinch Collingwood's spot.

The good guys (currently 10th, 24 points) are a wholly different proposition with Hunter, Naughton and Dunks at their disposal and *should* scoop up 8 points against Freo & the fading Hawks who just lost Sicily for the year. It's a mammoth ask versus the Handbaggers and Eagles (suspect we might push the Cats without winning)on top of a high stakes tilt versus the Dees which is rather less critical to their chances of making it than ours. Truly sink or swim time.

In summary, even if we heat up I fear it'll be too late given the obstacles or lack thereof for others. Richmond are safe and I expect Melbourne to kick on, annoyingly, meaning lest Bucks can stop the rot it's between us and the Giants for the Pies' spot.

We need wins. duh. But on top of that it'd be a very fine thing if GWS slips versus any or all of Freo, Carlton and Melbourne. What's equally tantalising is there's a veritable bee's wang between their percentage and ours.

We basically need Bevo to orchestrate another '16 finals run before the finals even commence. Over to you coach.

Great summary, this week's game is YUUUGE.

[Axe Man]

Good summary although I don't think Richmond are part of this conversation, they are certainties.

Probably can't completely count Carlton out either. They have a game in hand compared to us, are coming off a confidence boosting win and could conceivably win 5 of their last 6 matches (Gold Coast, Collingwood, GWS, Sydney, Adelaide, Brisbane).

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Good summary although I don't think Richmond are part of this conversation, they are certainties.

Probably can't completely count Carlton out either. They have a game in hand compared to us, are coming off a confidence boosting win and could conceivably win 5 of their last 6 matches (Gold Coast, Collingwood, GWS, Sydney, Adelaide, Brisbane).

Beware the inevitable emotional let down following a close win.

[Axe Man]

Beware the inevitable emotional let down following a close win.

Hardly inevitable. It could go that way or it could be one of those season defining wins that sets them on course to the finals.

On the balance of probabilities I don't think they will make it but they have shown in patches they are a decent side and probably have a better run home than we do.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Hardly inevitable. It could go that way or it could be one of those season defining wins that sets them on course to the finals.

On the balance of probabilities I don't think they will make it but they have shown in patches they are a decent side and probably have a better run home than we do.

Of course. I was just referring to what commonly occurs the week after a crazy win.

[1eyedog]

I don't think the Wiggles are a shoe in against us
at all.

[whythelongface]

The Saints face a tough run home with the Lions, Dees, Hawks, bye, Weagles and Giants. Could lose four out of five and end up on 36.

[AshMac]

which means everyone except Weagles as the most likely.

Fingers crossed the playing field is levelled playing them on the Gold Coast