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  1. #1
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    Picking teams is really hard.

    So - I read the selection thread every week with interest. I am interested in the selections. I am equally interested in peoples thoughts on the selections.

    I have been coaching for (what I think is) a long time. I did my first year as an assistant in 2003 and have been running my own race since 2007. I still hate selection nights.

    You have to weigh up form. Opposition structure. Opposition game-style. Size. Experience. Training form. "Character" form (yes, people go from showing good behaviours to less good behaviours just like going in and out of playing form). Time of the season (win loss). Time of the calendar (need to get experience in for next year vs now). Outside influences - in my case this always ends up being recruiters etc. THEN - there is the impact of each of those things on all of the other things.

    For example - player x is out of form. But he is a generally 'good' player who might need a new look at things. So you want to move him to half back. Fine. So a defender needs to go out. Who? Clearly a half back. Well...maybe. What role in the back 6 is player x to play. What does that mean for the existing 7 defenders? What about the match-ups? etc etc.

    It is chaotic. And each line coach has their say - and favourites - and you need to throw them an occasional bone as well. In the above example, the most likely change for player x coming in might be to drop player y. But he is a favourite of the backs coach who has 100% faith in his idea to 'insert unique skill of dubious value here' and he is fighting hard to keep him in. But wants instead to leave out a developing player who has shown a lot of upside but is prone to making a coach killing error (or two)...but could also be a match winner. All of which means an hour later you have somehow left out a solid citizen outside mid who never did a thing wrong because you moved the 'developing player with upside' to the mids to placate the defensive coach and now a mid had to be spat out instead...

    It's really, really, really hard. And the closer to it you get, the harder it gets to manage.

    Anyway...I'm sure there is a lot of "It's the coaches job just to get this right" and "How hard is it - just don't pick Gardner or Gowers" feedback to this post but...what can I tell you. I am often surprised at the selections but try not to ever get angry or upset as I am pretty confident a lot of thought and discussion has gone into it...and - after all - seeing the BEST in a player and being confident in their ability to perform despite past inconsistencies is not a bad quality.
    What should I tell her? She's going to ask.

  2. #2
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    Re: Picking teams is really hard.

    When you are winning and playing well most selections rarely get challenged.
    When you are playing poorly and losing then selections will certainly be challenged.
    It's the nature of a highly scrutinized professional sport

    I don't really care about selections like Gardner and Gowers as long as we quickly adjust if it doesn't work
    What I do really challenge is why we invest games into a player like Hayes last year, keep him on the list but don't select him this year
    I also challenge why players who are horribly out of form are selected regardless. Are we picking players on form or reputation?
    I get there is a balancing act and that assistant coaches need to be given some latitude to get 'their players' in
    There is also a fine line of continuing to build for tomorrow and investing some time into the younger players

    But...if I go back to last year, once the selections made sense from about round 5 we started playing better football so they are important. When the selections have that haphazard feel about them they will be challenged
    It might be a harder process than many of us give the MC credit for but it's certainly not an impossible one
    Western Bulldogs Football Club "Where it's cool to drool"

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  4. #3
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    Re: Picking teams is really hard.

    Quote Originally Posted by GVGjr View Post
    When you are winning and playing well most selections rarely get challenged.
    When you are playing poorly and losing then selections will certainly be challenged.
    It's the nature of a highly scrutinized professional sport

    I don't really care about selections like Gardner and Gowers as long as we quickly adjust if it doesn't work
    What I do really challenge is why we invest games into a player like Hayes last year, keep him on the list but don't select him this year
    I also challenge why players who are horribly out of form are selected regardless. Are we picking players on form or reputation?
    I get there is a balancing act and that assistant coaches need to be given some latitude to get 'their players' in
    There is also a fine line of continuing to build for tomorrow and investing some time into the younger players

    But...if I go back to last year, once the selections made sense from about round 5 we started playing better football so they are important. When the selections have that haphazard feel about them they will be challenged
    It might be a harder process than many of us give the MC credit for but it's certainly not an impossible one
    Well reasoned post and agree completely, particularly the bolded.

    Let's not make it harder than it needs to be.

  5. #4
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    Re: Picking teams is really hard.

    I would hate to be a coach or on the MC, as everyone will have different opinions. As MJP says, a player can have a reputation but be out of form so when do you drop him? Do you give them one more go.

    The other consideration is the opposition, and who they are playing and the roles required to oppose them.

    I don't mind people having an opinion on a player and whether they should be picked or not - we all have an opinion, but lets not forget we only know what we see from the outside. GVGjr mentions Hayes - well we have no idea what the issue is. eg. It could be attitude, it could be just plain bad form, but surely we don't think it is something sinister.

    However, once they put on the jumper, lets support them.
    FFC: Established 1883

    Premierships: AFL 1954, 2016 VFA - 1898,99,1900, 1908, 1913, 1919-20, 1923-24, VFL: 2014, 2016 . Champions of Victoria 1924. AFLW - 2018.

  6. #5
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    Re: Picking teams is really hard.

    Quote Originally Posted by bornadog View Post
    I would hate to be a coach or on the MC, as everyone will have different opinions. As MJP says, a player can have a reputation but be out of form so when do you drop him? Do you give them one more go.

    The other consideration is the opposition, and who they are playing and the roles required to oppose them.

    I don't mind people having an opinion on a player and whether they should be picked or not - we all have an opinion, but lets not forget we only know what we see from the outside. GVGjr mentions Hayes - well we have no idea what the issue is. eg. It could be attitude, it could be just plain bad form, but surely we don't think it is something sinister.

    However, once they put on the jumper, lets support them.
    I'm not sure how you could speculate a sinister conclusion from what I contributed but to hopefully clear that up if Hayes (for example) doesn't play this year and is maintained on the list next year we would have repeated a cycle that we have done with the likes of Greene, Lynch and R.Smith and a few others over the last few years. We invest games into players, don't play them the following year and yet still maintain them on the list at the end of the season.

    Some have questioned the quality of our playing list, I'd suggest that sort of approach doesn't help that
    Western Bulldogs Football Club "Where it's cool to drool"

  7. #6
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    Re: Picking teams is really hard.

    Quote Originally Posted by GVGjr View Post
    I'm not sure how you could speculate a sinister conclusion from what I contributed but to hopefully clear that up if Hayes (for example) doesn't play this year and is maintained on the list next year we would have repeated a cycle that we have done with the likes of Greene, Lynch and R.Smith and a few others over the last few years. We invest games into players, don't play them the following year and yet still maintain them on the list at the end of the season.

    Some have questioned the quality of our playing list, I'd suggest that sort of approach doesn't help that
    I was giving an example of what people might think.
    FFC: Established 1883

    Premierships: AFL 1954, 2016 VFA - 1898,99,1900, 1908, 1913, 1919-20, 1923-24, VFL: 2014, 2016 . Champions of Victoria 1924. AFLW - 2018.

  8. #7
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    Re: Picking teams is really hard.

    At the start of the year I thought it was hard to pick our round 1 team because we have such a strong list with good depth. Fast forward to round 11 I am struggling to pick 22 players who are in good enough form to warrant a game. We don't bat as deep as I thought. To top it all off there is no reserves competition so makes it that much harder.

    I agree it would be a tough gig, I couldn't do it
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  9. #8
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    Re: Picking teams is really hard.

    I find the over simplification of the process pretty putrid, to be honest. It's clearly complex, and just because we don't know the mechanisms of it, it doesn't mean it's ill-considered or haphazard.

    Information asymmetry is an actual thing, and it makes people angry. I remember Merve Hughes as a selector of the Australian cricket team saying once that I'm a selector and I have the information and you're not and you don't. I think he also said he loves John Howard for some reason so perhaps that's a bad example. I really don't know.

    Anyway, I'm growing tired of what I see as pretty one-dimensional linear commentary around selection that basically revolves around the fact people don't have information so they draw conclusions that suit their moods or whatever, and basically disregards that people making the calls are professional and probably have pride in the job they're doing.

    And I get it's the job of members and supporters and other stakeholders to question, and that's fine. But at least question with a bigger picture in mind. You know, if we've thought of it I can bet you everyone at the club from the boot studder down has as well. We're not being original.

    Good post MJP......for a change!
    Nobody's looking for a puppeteer in today's wintry economic climate.

  10. #9
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    Re: Picking teams is really hard.

    Nobody has ever suggested it's an easy process, but just as some call out 'over simplification', so too do others on the complexities. The reality is somewhere in between.

    In recent weeks I've mentioned selections one way or another don't have a direct impact on the result, because our bottom 5-6 have largely been non factors week to week.

    I think we've overrated ourselves based on the last part of 2019.

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  12. #10
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    Re: Picking teams is really hard.

    Quote Originally Posted by GVGjr View Post
    When you are winning and playing well most selections rarely get challenged.
    When you are playing poorly and losing then selections will certainly be challenged.
    It's the nature of a highly scrutinized professional sport

    I don't really care about selections like Gardner and Gowers as long as we quickly adjust if it doesn't work
    What I do really challenge is why we invest games into a player like Hayes last year, keep him on the list but don't select him this year
    I also challenge why players who are horribly out of form are selected regardless. Are we picking players on form or reputation?
    I get there is a balancing act and that assistant coaches need to be given some latitude to get 'their players' in
    There is also a fine line of continuing to build for tomorrow and investing some time into the younger players

    But...if I go back to last year, once the selections made sense from about round 5 we started playing better football so they are important. When the selections have that haphazard feel about them they will be challenged
    It might be a harder process than many of us give the MC credit for but it's certainly not an impossible one
    But in picking up MJP's point, we don't know what is going on with Hayes non selection. But we can surmise that a lot of thought goes into it.
    The fact he hasn't been selected, seems to, in the absence of anything else suggest he is not putting his best foot forward.

  13. #11
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    Re: Picking teams is really hard.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Bulldogs Bite View Post
    Nobody has ever suggested it's an easy process, but just as some call out 'over simplification', so too do others on the complexities. The reality is somewhere in between.

    In recent weeks I've mentioned selections one way or another don't have a direct impact on the result, because our bottom 5-6 have largely been non factors week to week.

    I think we've overrated ourselves based on the last part of 2019.
    Have we as supporters? Has the footy world generally? Possibly. What's really hard to know is if we have internally. And I doubt after the GWS final we'd be thinking internally that we're as good or as ready to go as some outside of the club might have.

    At the club the understanding of the list profile would be front of mind, as would what we can do well versus what we can't would be. I had a chat with a client of mine who was lucky enough as a Collingwood supporter to have an intimate session with Buckley talking about how they would approach 2018, who they'd do well against and who they wouldn't due to list profile and game style. Anyway long story short, what Buckley tabled and why pretty much came to fruition because he had so much information at his disposal about his own club that we/ whoever just doesn't have, and knew enough about who they would be playing and how they would play.

    These guys are the most informed people in the business. Yes, they get stuff wrong from time to time but they're at least informed.
    Nobody's looking for a puppeteer in today's wintry economic climate.

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  15. #12
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    Re: Picking teams is really hard.

    Quote Originally Posted by Yankee Hotel Foxtrot View Post
    But in picking up MJP's point, we don't know what is going on with Hayes non selection. But we can surmise that a lot of thought goes into it.
    The fact he hasn't been selected, seems to, in the absence of anything else suggest he is not putting his best foot forward.
    The Hayes non selection isn't the issue, it's an example of what we have frequently done for a few years now. Invest games into players one year, send them back to the reserves in the 2nd year for whatever reason and then maintain them on the list again in the 3rd year and perhaps beyond before finally making the tough call.

    Hayes was played for 5 games in a row early in the season last year and he did not have the form to support the selection. He went back to Footscray for an extended period and came back and played some good football at the end of the year.
    This year after coming back after the break in very good condition he's been unsighted for whatever reason and has not even been given the chance to sit alongside of Jordon Sweet as an emergency so I'm under no illusion he hasn't been able to impress the MC.
    On top of that Hunter has been out for an extended period and Hayes should have been in the mix to step in as his replacement so yes, clearly something isn't right.

    So if selecting the best 22 each week is challenging for our MC and as MJP highlights, it's becoming clearer why we often can't make the tougher calls on the playing list at the end of season
    Western Bulldogs Football Club "Where it's cool to drool"

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  17. #13
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    Re: Picking teams is really hard.

    Quote Originally Posted by jeemak View Post
    Have we as supporters? Has the footy world generally? Possibly. What's really hard to know is if we have internally. And I doubt after the GWS final we'd be thinking internally that we're as good or as ready to go as some outside of the club might have.

    At the club the understanding of the list profile would be front of mind, as would what we can do well versus what we can't would be. I had a chat with a client of mine who was lucky enough as a Collingwood supporter to have an intimate session with Buckley talking about how they would approach 2018, who they'd do well against and who they wouldn't due to list profile and game style. Anyway long story short, what Buckley tabled and why pretty much came to fruition because he had so much information at his disposal about his own club that we/ whoever just doesn't have, and knew enough about who they would be playing and how they would play.

    These guys are the most informed people in the business. Yes, they get stuff wrong from time to time but they're at least informed.
    Yep - should have clarified that as supporters we have. There's no doubt the media/footy world also overrated us.

    Internally nobody knows but there's certainly contradictions in our approach and there has been for some time, which generates the animosity from the supporter base.

    In recent years we've picked up senior players to boost our experience (Crozier, Lloyd, Duryea, Bruce, Keath etc) but there's been times we've bottled the side with borderline too much youth and have pushed the message about how young we are. How young we are week to week is a choice that has dated back from 2017, so I think frustration is understandable.

    I guess the crux of it is that we're in a results based business. Winning is king and if you're not winning, there's always going to be unrest. As informed as coaches may be, they're not immune to failure hence there's always typically 2-3 every year fighting to keep their job.

  18. #14
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    Re: Picking teams is really hard.

    Quote Originally Posted by GVGjr View Post
    The Hayes non selection isn't the issue, it's an example of what we have frequently done for a few years now. Invest games into players one year, send them back to the reserves in the 2nd year for whatever reason and then maintain them on the list again in the 3rd year and perhaps beyond before finally making the tough call.

    Hayes was played for 5 games in a row early in the season last year and he did not have the form to support the selection. He went back to Footscray for an extended period and came back and played some good football at the end of the year.
    This year after coming back after the break in very good condition he's been unsighted for whatever reason and has not even been given the chance to sit alongside of Jordon Sweet as an emergency so I'm under no illusion he hasn't been able to impress the MC.
    On top of that Hunter has been out for an extended period and Hayes should have been in the mix to step in as his replacement so yes, clearly something isn't right.

    So if selecting the best 22 each week is challenging for our MC and as MJP highlights, it's becoming clearer why we often can't make the tougher calls on the playing list at the end of season
    What's the bolded piece based on? It's a serious question, as I just don't understand the link when you/ me / anyone has any insight to how he's going......
    Nobody's looking for a puppeteer in today's wintry economic climate.

  19. #15
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    Re: Picking teams is really hard.

    Quote Originally Posted by ratsmac View Post
    At the start of the year I thought it was hard to pick our round 1 team because we have such a strong list with good depth. Fast forward to round 11 I am struggling to pick 22 players who are in good enough form to warrant a game. We don't bat as deep as I thought. To top it all off there is no reserves competition so makes it that much harder.

    I agree it would be a tough gig, I couldn't do it
    Well you'd have probably assumed (for example) that Cordy, Young and Trengove were the three competing for the 2nd tall defender spot after Keath but aren't we all surprised to see Gardiner seemingly preferred.

    Through form, fitness or some other criteria we don't know of the man many here would have as last on the list to get a game and first to go come seasons end is apparently ahead of other more fancied options. Is he going that well or is everyone else doing that badly?

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