Why are people picking Melbourne to WIN?

[mjp]

Genuine question.

Apparently our win against Adelaide was against witches hats (this coming from Bulldogs supporters) - but Melbourne have won 3-in-a-row and that is highly meritorious.

Look at that for one second:

- Defeated Collingwood (4th game in 14 days + travel) without half their team and down two players - both key forwards - effectively in the first half.
- Defeated North.
- Defeated Adelaide.

The week before that, Port absolutely blitzed them by 10 goals.

Our efforts against Brisbane and Port were FAR, FAR (add a few more fars) impressive than what Melbourne dished up. All the commentary about us just 'getting the job done' and it being an 'average performance' against Adelaide are fine...but why are Melbourne being given so much credit for basically doing the same thing?

How about a little bit of faith guys and girls. We are going to win this weekend. Mark it down. Get on it. Whatever.

Back on the positive bus please. We have good players. We are a good side. What more did you want to see than Bont running riot and Naughton kicking goals? Surely having our best two players - both better than anyone on Melbourne's list - in cracking form will be enough to tip the balance in our favour?

[Mofra]

Natural Bulldog tendency for pessimism aside, opposition rucks can still get ahold of us (e.g. Grundy, McInerny). Melbourne are likely to play two rucks if Gawn gets up, and they are both better than a dodgy-ankle English (if he's right) or a combo of an untried Sweet + Dunkley. That's where the concern really lies.

Their midfield matches ours ok (now that Brayshaw is getting back to form) with ours batting one "good" mid deeper.

[bornadog]

I am with you MJP, I don't rate Melbourne at all. Our midfield is superior to their's and we will have a field day. Sure Oliver and Petraca have done well but against who? The Bont and Macrae racked up 70 disposals against Brisbane who have a very good midfield, and as you say who is going to stop Naughton.

Looking forward to this one.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

I get what you're saying. I haven't exactly been rating Melbourne though. I think both clubs are fairly evenly poised this season. Saturday's game could go either way but whenever we play Melbourne they seem to drag us into their dour play. And I get the feeling we'll see the all too familiar bad quarter from us and that will be enough for them to pip us. I can't shake the thought of this being another 'Carlton' game for us. Who the hell knows though. Them having a "big" win against a "contender" might just work in our favour if they get ahead of themselves.

[Danjul]

Genuine question.

Apparently our win against Adelaide was against witches hats (this coming from Bulldogs supporters) - but Melbourne have won 3-in-a-row and that is highly meritorious.

Look at that for one second:

- Defeated Collingwood (4th game in 14 days + travel) without half their team and down two players - both key forwards - effectively in the first half.
- Defeated North.
- Defeated Adelaide.

The week before that, Port absolutely blitzed them by 10 goals.

Our efforts against Brisbane and Port were FAR, FAR (add a few more fars) impressive than what Melbourne dished up. All the commentary about us just 'getting the job done' and it being an 'average performance' against Adelaide are fine...but why are Melbourne being given so much credit for basically doing the same thing?

How about a little bit of faith guys and girls. We are going to win this weekend. Mark it down. Get on it. Whatever.

Back on the positive bus please. We have good players. We are a good side. What more did you want to see than Bont running riot and Naughton kicking goals? Surely having our best two players - both better than anyone on Melbourne's list - in cracking form will be enough to tip the balance in our favour?

This is a sign of the malaise the Dogs are in.

Over the last 50 games we have proven that any team can beat us. (Who can forget the Carlton game last year and they crushed us again this season). Last year we beat Brisbane and Port and Richmond. This month they have all made up for that.

The reality is we have no confidence - just a little wishful thinking.

After spending all of 2018 in the bottom 5 on the ladder we have only had about 6 weekends in the top half.

Even in a cult reality manages to creep into a few minds.

[Grantysghost]

I am with you MJP, I don't rate Melbourne at all. Our midfield is superior to their's and we will have a field day. Sure Oliver and Petraca have done well but against who? The Bont and Macrae racked up 70 disposals against Brisbane who have a very good midfield, and as you say who is going to stop Naughton.

Looking forward to this one.

I'm agreeing with the sentiment of this thread. It wasn't long ago my Melbourne mates were calling for Goodwin to be sacked (before they went on this run). I too think we have a good chance against them. They did play a couple of note worthy games, one was against the Suns when they were going quite well (Rankine's debut) which they won (which in hindsight might not have been that big), and also a close game against the Lions where they stormed home late losing by 4 points in the end.

Generally though they aren't the type of side to give us huge headaches. It will be more of a grind and if we can ensure our pressure is there I think they will struggle with it. Hope we can get on top early, they are a confidence side and when they get their tails up can be hard to stop especially someone like Oliver. That run they went on in 2018 is a good example.

As much as I hate to say it I think they have improved their list this season. Langdon from Freo out on the wing is giving them some extra run which they were missing and Tomlinson also provides the same, albeit not the same output. Neither of them superstars but gives their list more balance.

Their defence has tightened up with Vandenberg and Harmes used down there at the moment to good effect.

These are generally the type of games Melbourne drop over the journey.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

One thing for sure, this game is one where we must convert our chances in front of goal. Inaccuracy could be the death of us in this one. My lack of faith in this game has nothing to do with Melbourne but more to do with us. We've beaten lowly North, Sydney and Adelaide. We pipped an inexperienced Gold Coast and then beat injury plagued GWS and Essendon (both who aren't much chop this season even with a healthy list). There are no noteworthy wins in there. We haven't beaten a side in the top 8. So i'm not sure where the faith should come from.

[Happy Days]

Pains me to admit but the Dees are kind of nice. They seem to have tidied up their ball use and look super dangerous moving the ball between the arcs. Weideman is against all odds kind of good, and they have a deep spread of goal kickers that can stretch any team's defence. Plus they have Max Gawn who seems tailor made to destroy us. We gave up a million clearances to Brisbane getting service from Oscar McInerney, and Melbourne's midfield group is just about as good as theirs.

I am not confident about this game.

[comrade]

Yeah, I'm not sure our side deserves any faith given what we've dished up over the last 3.5 years.

We should win, but I have no confidence we will.

[mjp]

Pains me to admit but the Dees are kind of nice. They seem to have tidied up their ball use and look super dangerous moving the ball between the arcs...

I am not confident about this game.

Less than one month ago they only scored 4 goals against Port whilst conceding 12.

Admittedly, we only kicked 5...but conceded just 8 (and had more scoring shots than our opponent).

I guess you either believe or you don't but again, if we are worrying about Brayshaw, Oliver and Weideman, how the hell do they feel about Macrae, Bont and Naught?

[Happy Days]

Less than one month ago they only scored 4 goals against Port whilst conceding 12.

Admittedly, we only kicked 5...but conceded just 8 (and had more scoring shots than our opponent).

I guess you either believe or you don't but again, if we are worrying about Brayshaw, Oliver and Weideman, how the hell do they feel about Macrae, Bont and Naught?

That's kind of a trap we fall into though, isn't it? We think our top end talent is so good that they should carry us to wins against anyone, and then at the end of another loss we look at the stat sheet to see they've all played well, but the other team has played better. I know I've been guilty of it many times.

[1eyedog]

Got nothing to do with having better players it's how hard we have to work to score and how easy we are to score against that will be issues on Saturday. For me it's a structural issue.

Melbourne move the ball really quickly. We will stay with them by working super hard in F50 for our goals and then let them get away from us through easy goals by using the corridor with fast ball movement.

Rinse. Repeat.

[The Pie Man]

Was listening to Rob Harding yesterday on SEN and he reckons Melbourne a smoky for the flag from the bottom half of the 8.

Tipping we will go in as underdogs...even Bevo's brief seemed to agree that the win on the weekend had its 'frustrations' and alluded to 'huge challenges up ahead' ('we'll have less time, less space against Melbourne')

I'm just looking forward to Saturday, should be obvious to all that play in it that it's a mini-final. Also happy it will be a day game, suiting Naughton et al (and if you trust 5 day weather forecasts, it looks nice)

[GVGjr]

As I mentioned on the game day thread, Melbourne are a good team and from my perspective we shouldn't be underestimating them but I rate our chances this week.

We need a good start to insert some doubts in their mind and we need to curb Petracca who's been in fine form

[BornInDroopSt'54]

Picking the opposition is something I can't do but I get that it's anxiety.
It kills your anxiety if you face worst case scenario and then things can only get better. Prepare for the worst but hope for the best?