List Management for 2020/21

[bulldogsthru&thru]

6 clubs apparently after our first pick.

[chef]

I'm thinking going up the order should be the play, if we can get something decent from Essendon.

Step 1. Pick 6 and our Future Third - for - A Future First from Essendon for Dunkley. Say no players from them for argument sake.
* Note: Rates Dunkley fairly high. Around Shiel, much less than Treloar as examples when they were traded, although out of contract.
Step 2. Pick 6 and 14 and Essendon Future First for Pick 2 & 28 from North (Young included as steak knives)
* Note: Last year GWS traded 6 & Future First for Pick 4. So using that as a template we upgrade their 28 into 14 and Young. North net three first rounders (two likely top 10 picks) and a player of ours that they want. Nice way to rebuild.
Step 3. Pick 54 for Hannan.
Step 4. Use pick 2 on a gun midfielder. Hollands quite possibly. (I don't believe Adelaide will bid on JUH. I think Logan McDonald would suit them.
Step 5. Match JUH and if desired Macpherson/Raak at the draft.
Step 6. Take Picks 28, 41 = 1,089 Draft Points
Step 7. Trade 28 to Collingwood for Picks 39 & 42 (801 Points). Trade Pick 41 to Adelaide for Picks 50, 56 & 60 (547 Points) Net 256 more draft points through these trades.
Step 8. Take 1,347 Draft Points into the draft (with at least 5 spots open to use them all).
Step 9. If JUH is bid on at Pick 4 as Twomey suggests. We need 1,600 points on him slipping from Pick 3 to Pick 4. If MacPherson &/or Raak come after Pick 55 they're free. If it's bids before then a small amount. Say our deficit is about 250 points. If we could live trade in a Third Rounder at the bid for our future Second Rounder (or exchange of rounds) we could virtually eliminate a deficit. Only going into deficit if we bid on MacPherson and/or Raak if we match a bid before Pick 55. Which it sounds like is a low risk and only a low amount of deficit unless we did a small juggle.

= Dunkley & Young and our current picks >>> Two of the best Three Players In the Draft, MacPherson & Raak if desired, plus Hannan and Martin (if that gets done). We trade Dunkley & 14 for most likely the best midfielder in the draft at Pick 2.

2021 Draft Hand: Natural First Rounder (unless a slight deficit), Natural Fourth Rounder, Traded in Third/Fourth Rounder (subject to any player trades in 2021). (Give or take on the late picks)


GWS have used this strategy of getting ahead of the expected high bid twice (Setterfield & Greene) successfully. The more I think about it, if we could grab the best midfielder and best KPF in the draft, I'd rather look at a ballsy move like this. Of course the competition would cry bloody murder... But Sam Power's job isn't worrying about the feelings of other clubs and their fans. I can see a case for all those trades being mutually beneficial if those are the cards that get dealt. Recent trading history for all the trades has them being plausible chances. The key is that I don't see Adelaide who need a great news story and hope to sell their members, bidding on JUH which tells their fans after a shithouse year, you still didn't get the best player. I also don't see the AFEL liking a Pick 1 bid as a branding exercise. Recent history says that even the best Priority Access players end up sliding just a bit to a fair bit. I think there's a roadmap to a really good outcome.

We missed you.

[bulldogtragic]

Said it before BT-you should be advisor to club.

Your posts are always food for thought. So good to have you back posting.

Thanks Josie. Advisor? In my dreams. I'd happily be the coffee boy to the list management team!

We missed you.

Right back at you GF buddy. Hope your back flat-out in the kitchen.

[divvydan]

So, we didn't bring in Stef Martin through FA. Either we have to trade for him or have to assume Brisbane will delist him and then pick him up. For those wondering why we might trade for him given we probably could've gotten him as a FA, Brisbane only look like using 2 live picks this draft, with a third for a rookie pick. They've already gone from 43 to 53 this year to improve next year and they may be willing to give us 53 along with Martin for something next season, which could give us more points this year.

[bornadog]

Hey BT, I think Essendon can't trade next years 1st pick because they haven't used a first for a number of years. (need to check)

Edit: article - https://www.afl.com.au/news/498734/h...ade-first-pick

[bulldogtragic]

Hey BT, I think Essendon can't trade next years 1st pick because they haven't used a first for a number of years. (need to check)

Edit: article - https://www.afl.com.au/news/498734/h...ade-first-pick

The solution is they use Pick 7 this year. Trade us pick 6. Then work out how best for them they get an extra first rounder next year, probably using Saad. Using one next year and trading us one. Something like Pick 8 for Saad. Then trading Pick 8 to Geelong for Pick 13/15 & 2021 First. Pick 8 on traded to GWS for Cameron with another pick. Essendon use the Geelong First Rounder next year. I had giving them a third back. It might move into a second rounder, on traded to GCS for Wright. (Essendon also seem to be angling for a future First Rounder for Fantasia, which could make things easier again).

Essendon over 2 years use two or three First Rounders on kids (7, 13/15, 16-18 next year), Trade two First Rounders to gain Dunkley & Wright in effect (for Daniher & Saad). Trade 13/15 if wanted too.
Dogs go up the order (per earlier thread)
Geelong get Cameron
GWS get their top 10 pick
GCS get the future pick wanted for Wright
Carlton get Saad

Everyone win?

[soupman]

BT thats impressive and would be amazing if we could pull it off.

I do think the JUH bid will slide, NGA/FS kids have typically been bid on later than they should, although all it takes is one club to screw us over.

[GVGjr]

Hey BT, I think Essendon can't trade next years 1st pick because they haven't used a first for a number of years. (need to check)

Edit: article - https://www.afl.com.au/news/498734/h...ade-first-pick

The Daniher compensation changes that now

The Joe Daniher compensation enables Essendon to trade a future R1 pick. But if Bombers trade a future R1, they must keep their two 2020 R1 picks, unless they bring another in (eg. Saad). They also couldn’t trade any other future picks without bringing another in (eg. Fantasia).

[jeemak]

So, we didn't bring in Stef Martin through FA. Either we have to trade for him or have to assume Brisbane will delist him and then pick him up. For those wondering why we might trade for him given we probably could've gotten him as a FA, Brisbane only look like using 2 live picks this draft, with a third for a rookie pick. They've already gone from 43 to 53 this year to improve next year and they may be willing to give us 53 along with Martin for something next season, which could give us more points this year.

You pretty much nail shit with your knowledge mate, thank you.

[Happy Days]

I like the thought you’ve put into it BT (and am stoked you’re back) but we’re losing one of our best players, otherwise have a top 4 calibre list, and will be already using considerable draft capital on a player that we can’t reasonably expect to meaningfully contribute next year. We need to use this unique opportunity we’ve been presented with to bring in a gun player who’s a gun player right now, not when Bont is 29 and playing CHF.

[bulldogtragic]

I like the thought you’ve put into it BT (and am stoked you’re back) but we’re losing one of our best players, otherwise have a top 4 calibre list, and will be already using considerable draft capital on a player that we can’t reasonably expect to meaningfully contribute next year. We need to use this unique opportunity we’ve been presented with to bring in a gun player who’s a gun player right now, not when Bont is 29 and playing CHF.

Thanks HD. Fair point. What if the Trealor rumours are true and if our future first rounder (among other fine detail) was good enough to secure him? Then there's Treloar, Martin & Hannan with JUH & Hollands (who both could play forward quickly) et al on the list for next season?

[GVGjr]

So Greene, Gowers, and Lynch have been delisted. Dickson has retired and Jong and Wood have be re-signed and it looks like Lachlan Young is off to North but I don't think that has been confirmed

Question marks remain on Suckling, Trengove, Khamis, Cavarra, Porter, Hayes and Roarke Smith. Gardner and Duryea are in talks with the club. You would have to think that with the games we invested in Gardner then that deal will get done. Duryea should get a deal as well
Bailey Dale's name is being mentioned in possible trade talks but there is nothing on Schache or Lewis Young so far
You would have to assume that if we add Stephan Martin then Trengove won't be required.

Where does that leave Suckling, Khamis, Cavarra, Porter, Hayes and maybe R.Smith?

We have some interest in Hannan, Lonie and Martin and we must be discussing Treloar especially if Dunks was to leave

[bulldogtragic]

So Greene, Gowers, and Lynch have been delisted. Dickson has retired and Jong and Wood have be re-signed and it looks like Lachlan Young is off to North but I don't think that has been confirmed

Question marks remain on Suckling, Trengove, Khamis, Cavarra, Porter, Hayes and Roarke Smith. Gardner and Duryea are in talks with the club. You would have to think that with the games we invested in Gardner then that deal will get done. Duryea should get a deal as well
Bailey Dale's name is being mentioned in possible trade talks but there is nothing on Schache or Lewis Young so far
You would have to assume that if we add Stephan Martin then Trengove won't be required.

Where does that leave Suckling, Khamis, Cavarra, Porter, Hayes and maybe R.Smith?

We have some interest in Hannan, Lonie and Martin and we must be discussing Treloar especially if Dunks was to leave

I don't know what kind of seasons these guys had. But related, say (for argument sake) we take in 5-6 draft picks into the draft and day we take the three Priority Access kids. Then there's 2-3 spots open. We need to maybe cut several more players (if list numbers reduce by two or more), say many on your list above. Would Bevo lean on Sam Power to re-draft say 2 of the players to keep the experience within the group? (Assuming they don't get picked up elsewhere) Do we need late somewhat speculative selections?

[Happy Days]

Thanks HD. Fair point. What if the Trealor rumours are true and if our future first rounder (among other fine detail) was good enough to secure him? Then there's Treloar, Martin & Hannan with JUH & Hollands (who both could play forward quickly) et al on the list for next season?

Thanks to Collingwood there’s no shot we need to part with a future first for Treloar. Dunkley would have been on around $400k and we need $900k to cover Treloar’s salary. I think that if we cover the whole thing then a pick around 40 would be enough, and they also have a stated interest in Bailey Dale who no one should be hesitant to see the back of.

Soup is right about us not needing to help Collingwood here. Their horrible list management should have us in a position to pounce and take advantage of them, not be reasonable to win equity like we are typically wont to do. Plus their list management in itself has proven that they’re terrible at it so why should we expect them to suddenly turn hard and talk us out of a pick we have no reason to give?

[GVGjr]

I don't know what kind of seasons these guys had. But related, say (for argument sake) we take in 5-6 draft picks into the draft and day we take the three Priority Access kids. Then there's 2-3 spots open. We need to maybe cut several more players (if list numbers reduce by two or more), say many on your list above. Would Bevo lean on Sam Power to re-draft say 2 of the players to keep the experience within the group? (Assuming they don't get picked up elsewhere) Do we need late somewhat speculative selections?

Agreed, We've got a fine line to balance this year and we may need 3 picks/spots to cover the JUH points so I can see scenario's where we end up redrafting players late in the draft. I think we will need to have at least 7 spots open to cover JUH and the other priority youngsters and then redraft say the likes of Khamis later on

The complication is around also needing to bring in Hannan, Martin and maybe Treloar and Lonie

List wise there is a lot more to play out