I hate the St Kilda Matchup - Tell me how we win this game???

[comrade]

If it rains, who does it benefit most? Both teams like to move the ball quickly. I'd think us but it's not like we are any good in wet conditions.

Rain is our game plan's kryptonite.

[bornadog]

If it rains, who does it benefit most? Both teams like to move the ball quickly. I'd think us but it's not like we are any good in wet conditions.

Won't be raining

[Axe Man]

Won't be raining

You got tonights Powerball numbers too?

[bornadog]

You got tonights Powerball numbers too?

As a matter of fact

[Topdog]

I'm very confident for this one which is a weird feeling as I am a glass qtr full kind of guy.

Our form lines are nearly polar opposites as they have been quite poor recently.

Our mids are in sublime form at the moment and I'm expecting Libba to be in beast mode again.

[comrade]

Our mids are in sublime form at the moment and I'm expecting Libba to be in beast mode again.

Yeah, Bont is pretty much in full flight and Libba is like a marauding beast. If they both are at their best against Saints, good luck stopping us.

[SonofScray]

Scoreboard pressure is the key I think. If we can play "on our terms" that's great and should go a long way to beating them. However, if we haven't cashed in for the moments that our scoring grinds to a halt and the pressure dips, they'll get their tails up and start getting creative. We don't respond well when its getting away from us, or when we have to get going again.

Cash in when the goings good.

Goals from Bruce, English and Bont are gold in this contest IMO.

[bornadog]

Saints are one of the best for centre clearances and this is an area we need to negate and at least break even.

The other area is the Saints are very good at tackling inside 50 and rank second and this is where they get their run from their defense.

In most other stats, we are pretty even.

We need to be accurate getting the ball inside 50, or they will punish us.

[DOG GOD]

I really hate this match-up.

It just seems that the Saints are strong where we are weak...and their fast method of ball movement causes huge trouble for our zoning defence. Further to all that, they are at the very least 'solid' (Ruck + inside mids) where we are strong (inside mids) and, well...

Is anyone else just thinking 'Why couldn't it have been West Coast? Or Collingwood? Or even Richmond?"

Looking forward with dread. Hoping I am wrong (of course) but just not feeling it.

I’m very concerned. Firstly, their ruck. I think Timmy will be smashed by Ryder/Marshall, and that in turn with give first use to their “less” flashy midfield. Billings has been a huge problem the last 3 times we have met, averaging 25 disposals and 2 goals per game. The likes of Ross and Steele always play well against us. My saints mate says we have the midfield to be top 2-3, but we always struggle against lesser midfield. Saints are solid down back, but they have plenty of marking power, And pace in the front half. If they get first use out of the ruck, I’d expect a lot of inside 50’s for the saints, and our backs under immense pressure. We cannot allow them to have easy set shots directly in front from 20-30 metres, and we certainly can’t afford to let Butler run onto the ball over the back for goal square goals.

I’m hoping we can negate the ruck influence. I’m very concerned about how Wallis and Naughton will play, and without them being an influence, I feel we will be lucky to kick 6-7 goals.

[Doc26]

Responding to the OP, our ball use efficiency is one area that will be key. Last time around the Saints had 9 players going at greater than 75% kicking efficiency, we had 1 (Williams). From the same game, of those players with 4 or more Clangers, the Saints tally was 9, ours tallied 28.

There will be in the order of 6 changes to our list from that selected in our last encounter, notably Hunter and Libba as ins makes us significantly better where it counts. Cordy, Duryea and Wood as ins gives as added experience, particularly finals experience down back.

Dale, Gowers and Lloyd all offered very little in our previous encounter and unless Mitch fails to come up our forward half is unlikely to have these 3 in the mix.

The other plus for us this time around is that they’re missing their A grader in Gresham who really hurt us with 420 metres gained, 12 kicks, 12 handballs and 5 tackles. Handy to have out. Whilst not as damaging as Gresham it would seem unlikely that Lonie comes up who also hurt us as a small forward.

The ruck is no doubt a significant concern. I’m more concerned by the damage that Ryder could inflict than Marshall in this area.

Ryder had a whopping 55.6 hit out to advantage rate and 64.3 hit to to win % against Tim. Marshall’s numbers were relatively matched to Tim. So it’s critical that we’re aware of this discrepancy with Ryder and more important that we can address it this time around.

Whilst Steele has become their prime midfielder, and Zak Jones return will strengthen them on the outside it’s Billing’s that I’d like us to put work into and mitigate him getting anywhere near the 470 metres gained that he racked up last we met.

[Dancin' Douggy]

I think we beat them in the guts and at the coalface. Libba, Macrae, Bont, Bailey Smith, Dunkley and Libba. Did I mention Libba?
They should be able to control the contested ball. That's where we win.

[Twodogs]

I'm thinking we can exploit the Saints desire to move the ball quickly and with some risk, particularly if they're not fielding a team of seasoned finals campaigners. If we can get our pressure levels to where they need to be then we can cause turnovers and create opportunities.

My biggest concern is that we don't capitalise on the opportunities presented, we should get plenty and we need to make the most of them.

This year compared to last we've not had the same high performance levels on the run home, but we've been competitive for a while now and have had to win each game for the last three weeks to make it. For some reason the preparation and the way we're playing gives me confidence.

If we control the ball we will win. Luckily that's what we've done for the last few weeks.

[mjp]

Responding to the OP, our ball use efficiency is one area that will be key. Last time around the Saints had 9 players going at greater than 75% kicking efficiency, we had 1 (Williams). From the same game, of those players with 4 or more Clangers, the Saints tally was 9, ours tallied 28.

I like a few of your points but this one concerns me because it DIRECTLY relates to game-style. We have not defended well vs fast ball movement teams for a couple of seasons now (hell, think back to the 2015 elimination vs Adelaide in q4) and that is what the Saints do...we structure up a strong zone defense vs mark and kick teams but don't react quick enough on opposition play-on to close down a direct opponent...which means they will have open players (literally) everywhere...

I hate this match-up.

[dog town]

I like a few of your points but this one concerns me because it DIRECTLY relates to game-style. We have not defended well vs fast ball movement teams for a couple of seasons now (hell, think back to the 2015 elimination vs Adelaide in q4) and that is what the Saints do...we structure up a strong zone defense vs mark and kick teams but don't react quick enough on opposition play-on to close down a direct opponent...which means they will have open players (literally) everywhere...

I hate this match-up.

The first change of angle or 45 kick they use to open up running lanes is critical I think. Always is but that’s where it seems to open up for them.

[Bulldog Joe]

I see the concern from mjp and understand.

Over the last few games we have controlled teams that are not fast ball movement, but we have looked vulnerable when the opposition move it quickly.

Personally I have what I would class as an apprehensive confidence.

I think Tim English will be much improved from the round 2 clash and have us much closer to break even. What I have observed is that Tim is getting more hitouts than earlier, but he can get decisive hitouts.

We also have Libba (who missed rd 2) in superb form and Bont has improved his output throughout the season.

I see our mids as better than theirs.

Hunter gives us a big plus from round 2 as well.

We do need to take our chances, as well as defend their movement, but I truly believe we are just better.

GO DOGS!!