Which Player are you looking forward to seeing in 2021

[jeemak]

Love the symmetry here.

We sent Roughy to the Pies in 2019 and he had a break out season. as many disposals and marks as he had in 2017 and 2018 combined with us. Collingwood hit the jackpot with Jordan.

Now they send us Treloar. Will we be so lucky?

Roughead averaged pretty much the same amount of touches each game in his last two seasons with us as he did in his first with Collingwood, and taking into account shorter quarters in 2020 probably about the same again.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/...ordan-roughead

I can't think of a better example of why disposal statistics by themselves are a limited lens through which to analyse player performance, especially given he was used as a full back at the Pies and a changing ruck with us. Games played might be a better indicator, I suppose.

Roughy was a great fit for the Pies in 2019 and was I think just OK this year from what I saw, and good luck to him. I hope Treloar excels with us and I'm really looking forward to seeing him burst away from stoppages and run at defenders.

[Danjul]

Roughead averaged pretty much the same amount of touches each game in his last two seasons with us as he did in his first with Collingwood, and taking into account shorter quarters in 2020 probably about the same again.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/...ordan-roughead

I can't think of a better example of why disposal statistics by themselves are a limited lens through which to analyse player performance, especially given he was used as a full back at the Pies and a changing ruck with us. Games played might be a better indicator, I suppose.

Roughy was a great fit for the Pies in 2019 and was I think just OK this year from what I saw, and good luck to him. I hope Treloar excels with us and I'm really looking forward to seeing him burst away from stoppages and run at defenders.

i was using the statistics to indicate overall contribution to the team.

And yes, you are correct when you say games played is a good indicator. From memory, I think he played in only half of our games in 2017/2018. And all in 2019 with Collingwood.

The move was win/win for him and the Pies. I hope Treloar’s move works as well for us. In fact, I’m hoping he combines well with Martin and it’s even better.

And thanks for the link.

[AshMac]

I’m most looking forward to seeing Martin tbh - not so much as an individual player but in the way ‘could’ change the dynamic of the team. Fingers crossed he doesn’t miss a beat changing teams and returning from injury and we get a taste round 1 against Grundy.

[jeemak]

i was using the statistics to indicate overall contribution to the team.

And yes, you are correct when you say games played is a good indicator. From memory, I think he played in only half of our games in 2017/2018. And all in 2019 with Collingwood.

The move was win/win for him and the Pies. I hope Treloar’s move works as well for us. In fact, I’m hoping he combines well with Martin and it’s even better.

And thanks for the link.

You were using them as an aggregate comparison compared to his time with the Bulldogs, and ignoring that he played more games at Collingwood than he did at the Bulldogs and in a different position.

No worries about sharing the link. Given you're a proponent of statistics to back your arguments I'd personally get more from your posts if you also shared links to stats you reference and detailed why you think they are important beyond their totals in themselves.

[Danjul]

You were using them as an aggregate comparison compared to his time with the Bulldogs, and ignoring that he played more games at Collingwood than he did at the Bulldogs and in a different position.

No worries about sharing the link. Given you're a proponent of statistics to back your arguments I'd personally get more from your posts if you also shared links to stats you reference and detailed why you think they are important beyond their totals in themselves.

Not sure why you are so determined to (constantly?) misrepresent what I clearly said.

I specifically compared his possessions and marks in 2017/2018 (with us) with those in 2019 ( with Collingwood). And as you confirmed with different stats, Collingwood got as much from him on the field in that 1 year as we did in the previous two. They got an experienced player who immediately gave them great service. And for nothing??? He got a full season and seemed to enjoy his footy. I don’t see how things could have gone better for either Roughy or Collingwood.

I don’t see 24 games at Collingwood and 25 with us as significantly different (it’s actually less at the Pies, not more).

And I hope we do as well in return with Treloar.

My source of statistics is simply the AFL website, I’m pretty sure all contain the same information but presented differently. I don’t understand what you mean by the last part so I’m not sure if this addresses it- I didn’t use games played (probably should have) because I was emphasising output on the field, and games don’t do that.

I can’t remember why he missed so many games in his last 2 years with us, I assume significant injuries, and playing in a different position as you pointed out might have contributed to his managing 24 games in 2019. 24 in one year is exceptional.

Yes, Roughy’s move to Collingwood was an amazing story all round.

[jeemak]

His output statistically when he moved to Collingwood, on a game by game basis is pretty much on par with game by game output in his last two years with the Dogs. Equaling possessions in the first year at Collingwood versus his last two at the Dogs only tells part of the story, in that on average game for game he was on par but due to playing more games his statistical aggregate was higher.

That's the thing about basic stats, they don't lie and can't be misrepresented if you break them down a little bit.

The last part of my post refers to your use of stats to justify a lot of the positions or arguments you present, and I'm just saying that while I like your contributions I'd get more out of them if you elaborated on them or broke them down more thoroughly to tell the story I think you're trying to tell because sometimes it's not clear to me how they're being used.

Alternatively you can tell me to bugger off and that's fine!

[Danjul]

His output statistically when he moved to Collingwood, on a game by game basis is pretty much on par with game by game output in his last two years with the Dogs. Equaling possessions in the first year at Collingwood versus his last two at the Dogs only tells part of the story, in that on average game for game he was on par but due to playing more games his statistical aggregate was higher.

That's the thing about basic stats, they don't lie and can't be misrepresented if you break them down a little bit.

The last part of my post refers to your use of stats to justify a lot of the positions or arguments you present, and I'm just saying that while I like your contributions I'd get more out of them if you elaborated on them or broke them down more thoroughly to tell the story I think you're trying to tell because sometimes it's not clear to me how they're being used.

Alternatively you can tell me to bugger off and that's fine!

Sorry, I might be wrong about my source of data. The site is afltables.com

not sure now if there’s a connection to the afl. What I like is you can get individual details on players by game . Easy to get lost in there though.

For example,

When I search for Lewis Young I find that he had 21 possessions in his first game.

When I search on Dale Morris I can find that he had 9.

I can then go through his games and find that he first exceeded the 20 mark in game 52. He had 23 that day.

He had 22 in game 85, 21 in 109, 21 in 113, 23 in131, 23 in 144, 22 in 211.

The search is hard on the eyes on an iPad but the details are there.

What value you place on them is a personal decision.

But when I see that a champion like Morris did it twice in his first 100 games and a total of only 7 times in a 250 game career my conclusion is Young has talent and the club probably hasn’t made full use of it.

The search on Morris suggests that game 52 was special, he took 15 marks. It was the only time he exceeded Young’ s 10 in game 2 (following the 9 in his first game). This reinforces the conclusion I have already drawn.

I think he should be left in the team, on the backline, and not burdened with the demands that he has to be a ruckman and forward as well. I suspect that has done more harm than good.

I am not confident that we will see much more of Young. His reputation was permanently damaged in game 5 when Patton kicked 4 goals and had 15 disposals. For Patton, who was 10kg heavier, it was game 72.

Also, the data holds details like:

Young still had 11 disposals and 5 marks, the same as Jake Stringer and better than Dunkley, Liber and Wallis. Liam Picken had 3 kicks. All widely viewed as champions. This suggests the 8 goal defeat was due to more than Young’s ‘less good ‘ game, although I have the impression that in many people’s mind Lewis Young has sole responsibility. And Patton was probably the dominant forward in the competition at that time , having already kicked bags of 6,6, 5, 5, 4,4 and 4 goals in the previous 20 games before he came across Young.


Yes, you can get lost in the data but I think it supports my conclusions.

[hujsh]

Sorry, I might be wrong about my source of data. The site is afltables.com

not sure now if there’s a connection to the afl. What I like is you can get individual details on players by game . Easy to get lost in there though.

For example,

When I search for Lewis Young I find that he had 21 possessions in his first game.

When I search on Dale Morris I can find that he had 9.

I can then go through his games and find that he first exceeded the 20 mark in game 52. He had 23 that day.

He had 22 in game 85, 21 in 109, 21 in 113, 23 in131, 23 in 144, 22 in 211.

The search is hard on the eyes on an iPad but the details are there.

What value you place on them is a personal decision.

But when I see that a champion like Morris did it twice in his first 100 games and a total of only 7 times in a 250 game career my conclusion is Young has talent and the club probably hasn’t made full use of it.

The search on Morris suggests that game 52 was special, he took 15 marks. It was the only time he exceeded Young’ s 10 in game 2 (following the 9 in his first game). This reinforces the conclusion I have already drawn.

I think he should be left in the team, on the backline, and not burdened with the demands that he has to be a ruckman and forward as well. I suspect that has done more harm than good.

I am not confident that we will see much more of Young. His reputation was permanently damaged in game 5 when Patton kicked 4 goals and had 15 disposals. For Patton, who was 10kg heavier, it was game 72.

Also, the data holds details like:

Young still had 11 disposals and 5 marks, the same as Jake Stringer and better than Dunkley, Liber and Wallis. Liam Picken had 3 kicks. All widely viewed as champions. This suggests the 8 goal defeat was due to more than Young’s ‘less good ‘ game, although I have the impression that in many people’s mind Lewis Young has sole responsibility. And Patton was probably the dominant forward in the competition at that time , having already kicked bags of 6,6, 5, 5, 4,4 and 4 goals in the previous 20 games before he came across Young.


Yes, you can get lost in the data but I think it supports my conclusions.

I reach the opposite conclusion which is that number of possessions per game can be completely irrelevant to you being a champion defender. This of course depends on role as for someone like JJ whether he finds the ball often enough is vital to his contributions to the team. Young plays a role (or we need him to play a role) of key defender where I would say possessions per game is a bonus and secondary priority at best. Actual defending what we need more than anything from a tall defender.

[Danjul]

I reach the opposite conclusion which is that number of possessions per game can be completely irrelevant to you being a champion defender. This of course depends on role as for someone like JJ whether he finds the ball often enough is vital to his contributions to the team. Young plays a role (or we need him to play a role) of key defender where I would say possessions per game is a bonus and secondary priority at best. Actual defending what we need more than anything from a tall defender.

I can only quantify a player’s performance by looking at what they did and comparing that to what others managed. I have seen people on WOOF praise Cordy as a defender because of his 1% ers. In the game described below against GWS Young’s stats are almost identical to Cordys. Both are listed for 1%s as 6. The only other player to get more than 2 was Bailey Williams (with 3). Between them these 3 players had more than half of those for the whole team.

Interestingly, when the next season began Young got 4 games in the next 40. Williams 22 and Cordy 38.

Cordy was selected in every game in 2019 despite numerous opponents kicking a personal best number of goals against him.

Admittedly, stats only give a view of what happened on the field and what happened off the ground can be influential in a footballers career. I assume that is why 2 of these three young backmen seemed to deteriorate and struggle to return to the team after extremely promising starts.

[hujsh]

I can only quantify a player’s performance by looking at what they did and comparing that to what others managed. I have seen people on WOOF praise Cordy as a defender because of his 1% ers. In the game described below against GWS Young’s stats are almost identical to Cordys. Both are listed for 1%s as 6. The only other player to get more than 2 was Bailey Williams (with 3). Between them these 3 players had more than half of those for the whole team.

Interestingly, when the next season began Young got 4 games in the next 40. Williams 22 and Cordy 38.

Cordy was selected in every game in 2019 despite numerous opponents kicking a personal best number of goals against him.

Admittedly, stats only give a view of what happened on the field and what happened off the ground can be influential in a footballers career. I assume that is why 2 of these three young backmen seemed to deteriorate and struggle to return to the team after extremely promising starts.

That's the rub isn't it? There's a lot we simply don't know.

I do agree that 1%ers are a good indicator of a players defensive efforts and generally agree that Young 'should' be better suited to the role Cordy plays. I have to assume there is reasoning behind the fact that Cordy gets selected before Young though.

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

That's the rub isn't it? There's a lot we simply don't know.

I do agree that 1%ers are a good indicator of a players defensive efforts and generally agree that Young 'should' be better suited to the role Cordy plays. I have to assume there is reasoning behind the fact that Cordy gets selected before Young though.

I agree. I would be super confident that the club is super keen for Young to step up and demand selection. The fact that Gardner and Cordy were consistently put ahead of him is more likely to be indicative that Young wasn't upholding his end of the contract in terms of KPI's than it is any incompetence or favouritism on coaching team's part.

[Twodogs]

Sorry, I might be wrong about my source of data. The site is afltables.com

not sure now if there’s a connection to the afl. What I like is you can get individual details on players by game . Easy to get lost in there though.

AFLtables is a privately run site. No official connection to the AFL. It's easy to get caught up in though. You can look up and realise you've spent 2 or 3 hours sifting through names and stats. Personally I use it as canon and don't dispute their facts.


https://afltables.com/afl/notes.html