How Many More Wins Left In The H&A?

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

6 more probably gets us top 4 and 7 definitely does.

I reckon we'll start to see our Match Committee start to play some games now. We better be prepared for some fun and games as I suspect we'll start to look towards making sure we're in good shape to run out the season strong in the last 7 weeks, than to try and go hard over the next month.

[SonofScray]

8-9 games would be both par and a fantastic outcome.

[I'm Not Bitter Anymore!]

How many ya got?

[DOG GOD]

So, who’s going to be disappointed at this point IF we don’t make top 2? If we happened to lose all 4 to Melb, Freo, Geel and WC could we still do it with our superior %?

[bornadog]

So, who’s going to be disappointed at this point IF we don’t make top 2? If we happened to lose all 4 to Melb, Freo, Geel and WC could we still do it with our superior %?

We must finish top 4, but also avoid playing Lions at Gabba in a final

[DOG GOD]

We must finish top 4, but also avoid playing Lions at Gabba in a final

Yep and with all bris, port, WC and Sydney all in the mix, we have to put ourselves in the best position for home finals.

[DOG GOD]

We must finish top 4, but also avoid playing Lions at Gabba in a final

And that’s why we would be desperate for a top 2 finish. Guaranteed Melb finals.

[bornadog]

And that’s why we would be desperate for a top 2 finish. Guaranteed Melb finals.

Would we insist on Marvel, or MCG?

[bulldogtragic]

Would we insist on Marvel, or MCG?

We would. The AFEL would knock us back, unless we had a small drawing interstate opponent. We should remind them they’ve been making good money from Friday & Saturday night footy, so having us on our home deck in the first week would make for great TV viewing.

[angelopetraglia]

In 2019 15 wins secured top 4. 16 wins secured top 2.
In 2018 15 wins secured top 4. 16 wins secured top 2.
In 2017 14 wins secured top 4. 15 wins secured top 2.
In 2016 16 wins secured top 4. 17 wins secured top 2.
in 2015 16 wins secured top 4. 16 wins secured top 2.

So based on five years of data. We need to win six more games to finish top four (+ percentage). We need to win 16 games to finish top two (+ percentage).

We are now 9-1. 12 games to play. A 50% strike rate from this position should see a top four finish. Seven more wins (58% strike rate) should see us finish top two. There is a long, long way to go ... but even if we can chalk wins against North, Sydney (at home), Gold Coast, Adelaide (at home), Essendon and Hawthorn we should finish top four.

A solitary win then against Melbourne, Freo, Geelong, West Coast, Melbourne again, or Port (at home) should see us finish top two.

[DOG GOD]

Would we insist on Marvel, or MCG?

Marvel, but if we were playing Richmond for instance, the AFL would knock us back even before we got the word Marvel out.

[DOG GOD]

In 2019 15 wins secured top 4. 16 wins secured top 2.
In 2018 15 wins secured top 4. 16 wins secured top 2.
In 2017 14 wins secured top 4. 15 wins secured top 2.
In 2016 16 wins secured top 4. 17 wins secured top 2.
in 2015 16 wins secured top 4. 16 wins secured top 2.

So based on five years of data. We need to win six more games to finish top four (+ percentage). We need to win 16 games to finish top two (+ percentage).

We are now 9-1. 12 games to play. A 50% strike rate from this position should see a top four finish. Seven more wins (58% strike rate) should see us finish top two. There is a long, long way to go ... but even if we can chalk wins against North, Sydney (at home), Gold Coast, Adelaide (at home), Essendon and Hawthorn we should finish top four.

A solitary win then against Melbourne, Freo, Geelong, West Coast, Melbourne again, or Port (at home) should see us finish top two.

A lot of work to do. I see only NM and Ess as relatively easy. Hawks in Launceston might be difficult. GC up there, Crows in Ballarat and Melb at G are no givens. Port could be playing for a top 4 spot in that last game.

I think the next 4 games are the make or break. We need to find a way to win at least 2 of Melb, Geel, Freo and WC. We don’t wanna go 0-4 and let the confidence slip.

[bulldogtragic]

Round 11 Fri 28 May 7:50pm Demons Marvel Stadium - 2nd
Round 12 Sun 6 Jun 4:40pm Dockers Optus Stadium - 9th
Bye
Round 14 Sat 19 Jun 12:00pm Cats GMHBA Stadium - 3rd
Round 15 Sat 26 Jun 12:00pm Eagles Optus Stadium - 6th
Round 16 Sat 3 Jul 12:00pm Kangaroos Marvel Stadium - 18th
Round 17 Sat 10 Jul 12:00pm Swans Marvel Stadium - 7th
Round 18 Sat 17 Jul 12:00pm Suns Metricon Stadium - 15th
Round 19 Sat 24 Jul 12:00pm Crows Mars Stadium - 12th
Round 20 Sat 31 Jul 12:00pm Demons MCG - 2nd
Round 21 Sat 7 Aug 12:00pm Bombers Marvel Stadium - 14th
Round 22 Sat 14 Aug 12:00pm Hawks UTAS Stadium - 17th
Round 23 Sat 21 Aug 12:00pm Power Marvel Stadium - 5th
Bye

Liveladders predicter has us finishing on top of the ladder with 7 more wins of our 12 games. That’s at least par.

[DOG GOD]

Liveladders predicter has us finishing on top of the ladder with 7 more wins of our 12 games. That’s at least par.

I’d be absolutely stoked with that. I did a live ladder of worst case scenarios (15 wins) and had us at 7th, playing Richmond at the G in an elimination.

[bulldogtragic]

I’d be absolutely stoked with that. I did a live ladder of worst case scenarios (15 wins) and had us at 7th, playing Richmond at the G in an elimination.

Worst case falling to 7th? Was that every player having COVID and were locked down for 2 months?