The rebuild ladder: Where does your club sit?

[bornadog]

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WONDERING where your side sees itself in the premiership race? Look no further than the rebuild ladder.
Collingwood's bulging salary cap forced its hand, but the Magpies' big investment in last year's NAB AFL Draft made it clear that the club was at the start of its rebuild.

After coming within a goal of the premiership in 2018, the Magpies' efforts to keep their list together and remain in the top-four hunt were scaled back as the club returned to the draft following a dramatic Trade Period.

The rebuild ladder – as seen in the table below – highlights clearly when clubs have made the switch internally from premiership mode to list regeneration, with the Pies flicking the button at the end of 2020 when they took five picks inside the first two rounds of the draft.

So far three of those – Ollie Henry, Finlay Macrae and Caleb Poulter – have debuted this season and shown impressive signs, with Reef McInnes and Liam McMahon to come.

Collingwood's haul from last year was only two fewer first and second-round picks than Hawthorn has used in total over the past six years, ranking it last in the competition for selections in that stage of the draft over the period from 2015-20.
Of course, the Hawks tried to extend their golden era beyond their three flags, trading out first-round picks to secure Tom Mitchell, Chad Wingard and Jaeger O'Meara. Only in the past two years have the Hawks hit the early part of the draft, with five choices in 2019-20.

The first and second rounds of the draft are clearly fertile ground for recruiters. There are no guarantees, but success rates drop dramatically on picks outside of that range, which on average has stretched to the first 41 picks over the past six drafts due to live father-son and Academy bidding, free agency compensation picks and priority selections.

Greater Western Sydney sits at the top of the rebuild ladder with 20 first and second-round selections in the six-year period. The Giants' were consistent finals performers from 2016-19, however their numbers are skewed by highly-rated players departing the club across that timeframe and a revolving door of early picks.

By tracking each club's draft investment over the period, you can stencil their thoughts on where they sit in a push to a flag.
Brisbane's build was done over 2015-18, when the Lions used 15 first and second-round selections, but they have backed out of the draft with only four across the past two seasons.

Adelaide's decision to aggressively rebuild after their 2017 Grand Final loss is evident in the list, too, with the Crows using four first and second-round picks between 2015-17, but then 12 since then, including an equal-competition high of five last season.

Opposing list philosophies also ring true in the rebuild ladder.

Geelong, essentially, has defied football gravity and avoided a true rebuild and it sits third-last in the AFL for fewest picks in the first and second-rounds. The Cats have, however, grabbed five over the past two seasons, including trading a future first-round pick to move up the board and grab Max Holmes last year.

St Kilda's flipped approach in recent seasons to attack the trade and free agency market is also obvious, with the Saints tallying nine first and second-round picks across the past six off-seasons – the second least in the competition, while West Coast's big deal to land Tim Kelly and extend their flag ambitions after their 2018 success also sees them towards the bottom of the League.

First and second-round picks taken

CLUB	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	TOTAL
GWS	3	4	3	5	2	3	20
Brisbane	3	4	3	4	3	1	18
Gold Coast	3	4	1	4	4	1	17
Adelaide	2	1	1	3	4	5	16
North Melbourne	3	3	2	1	3	4	16
Carlton	4	2	3	2	2	2	15
Essendon	4	3		1	2	4	14
Fremantle	2	3	2	2	3	2	14
Sydney	1	2	2	2	4	3	14
Melbourne	2		3	2	3	3	13
Port Adelaide	1	4		3	4	1	13
Collingwood	1	2	1	2	1	5	12
Richmond	1	1	4	2	3	1	12
West Coast	2	2	4	4			12
Western Bulldogs	3	2	2	3	1	1	12
Geelong		2	3	1	3	2	11
St Kilda	1	2	3	2		1	9
Hawthorn	2				2	3	7

[Topdog]

Richmond are currently set for 4 this year which is a great result for them.

[Axe Man]

Hawthorn are years behind where they should be. After 2016 they should have realised their dynasty was over (courtesy of us) and began their rebuild. Instead they kept on topping up.

St Kilda have overestimated their list and got some of their recruits and drafting wrong. They will likely have to reset.

West Coast could have some pain coming up as the current group don't look quite up to challenging for a flag and quite a few of their stars are getting on. They have a big decision to make.

Brisbane have done really well and look to be setup fairly well for a sustained run.

I'm comfortable where we sit. We kept going to the draft after the flag when the temptation could have been to trade those picks away. Now we have the list in a healthy spot we have traded smartly to give ourselves a chance at finishing at the pointy end whilst still bringing in some highly rated first round picks in Flea and JUH.

[bulldogtragic]

Add in Darcy this year as a likely first rounder. I’m happy to be slightly lower on that chart as it doesn’t factor in all the picks JUH took, and importantly getting best 22 players in Treloar (this year), Bruce & Keath taking up second rounders (exchanged 3rd back for Keath). With that factored in, I’m happy to trade our future first (2022) if it lands a worthy KPD.

[jeemak]

Pretty narrow view of rebuilding, but I would say that.

I guess if Collingwood could have been more targeted in lieu of having salary cap space then they would have been.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Hawthorn are years behind where they should be. After 2016 they should have realised their dynasty was over (courtesy of us) and began their rebuild. Instead they kept on topping up.

St Kilda have overestimated their list and got some of their recruits and drafting wrong. They will likely have to reset.

West Coast could have some pain coming up as the current group don't look quite up to challenging for a flag and quite a few of their stars are getting on. They have a big decision to make.

Brisbane have done really well and look to be setup fairly well for a sustained run.

I'm comfortable where we sit. We kept going to the draft after the flag when the temptation could have been to trade those picks away. Now we have the list in a healthy spot we have traded smartly to give ourselves a chance at finishing at the pointy end whilst still bringing in some highly rated first round picks in Flea and JUH.

Instead they chose to blame the umpires and the AFL. Couldn't admit their run was over.