Always Right Match Committee - Round 18 Vs Gold Coast Suns 2021

[MrMahatma]

Very glad JUH keeps his spot and Hannan is out.

Annoyed with the Young dropping as I reckon we need him (or a competent 3rd tall defender…) to win the flag and why not give him more experience?

Also happy with resting Libba. I think it makes sense.

Definitely expect a win. Astro and Dunks back is massive! Astro could be AA this year and Dunks prob would be if he didn’t get injured.

[Grantysghost]

Looks like Hannan and Scott travelled from the images I've seen. Couldn't see Young.

[Danjul]

Yes I agree with you there, it really can't hurt to play him for an extended period in one position. Clearly we don't know what happens off field etc, and although I don't rate him highly (yet, he's young) whilst Gardner is out it's a pragmatic idea. But, I'm not agast at him being dropped either.

Apart from what I see, what do others think are the main reasons for his omission?

Gold Coast is 14th with half as many wins and half the percentage. We should be developing our strongest possible team, letting them gel as a unit, and letting Gold Coast worry about us.

And based upon what Young has shown in his 4 games this year he is certainly best 22. (17 possessions and 400 metres gained at centre half back- GardnerÂ’s best 12 and 100) (hitouts 9 - Bruce 5 is his best) (His goal from the boundary last week was a gem).

Does his contract specify only 2 consecutive games???

[Ghost Dog]

Glad Naughton is back.
Interesting to read about the concussion detecting mouth guard technology being employed across contact sports.

Weather, nothing out of the ordinary.
Fair bit of belief in this Gold coast side at the moment.
They will make us earn it. Hope not too much Covid uncertainty on the player's minds.

Think we can make it over the line without Libba. A few players will be looking to atone from last week.

[BornInDroopSt'54]

Great player management.
Given the philosophy of being strong through player turnover with ready players.
We will not be a settled line up leading to finals with all the players coming back late in the season.
Bonus that Marra gets games.
Lewis may yet play in a final.

[DOG GOD]

Well I’m pleased to see Hannan and Wallis out. Both pathetic last week.
Scott obviously didn’t tick his KPI’s last few weeks
Young should be on his phone to his manager tonight if he hasn’t already. Not surprised with the favouritism of some players. Hopefully he excels at another club and embarrasses our MC.

Interesting GC bring in Corbett. Like Sexton, he’s a fan of our backline so I’m expecting some contested marking goals from him.

With Libba out, dunks will need to be right on song, otherwise I can see them breaking even in the centre clearances.

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

I just don't see the omission of Young as necessarily meaning 'papers stamped' or being a bad thing.

We've found it hard to discern selections, but I think the reason behind that is different than in recent years.
My opinion, and obviously, it is only that, without access to internal intel, is that the players and club have a clear set of KPIs driving selection decisions. I also think that our strategic issues/limitations around the ruck position, might also add another layer of decision making from week to week.
We do seem to value pressure, and a commitment to defensive spreading and work rate off the ball to keep a specific shape.
Our best work, comes off the back of being able to deny the opposition quantity of opportunities in their forward half and keeping the ball in our half.

We were not beaten in the content by Sydney, or in the ruck. We were beaten by our inability to keep the ball inside our forward 50. They moved the ball with impunity from d50 to their forward line way too easy.
As good as Naughts is in the air, his coming back, helps us here. He's a great defensive forward.

Gold Coast are not a tall side, and I actually don't see a natural matchup for Lewis Young. English, as solo ruck, ain't gonna be the difference here, so maybe we're really looking to stretch Gold Coast on the run?

As long as the reason's for omission are clear, and the players know what the KPI's are (and our 2021 win-loss record suggests it's not impacting player buy-in) and communication to players is clear then I'm happy to give our Match Committee the benefit of the doubt.
We've used all bar 2 players on our list, and yet that doesn't seem to have impacted our overall performance. I'd love to see a comparison of players used and ladder position across seasons and clubs. I reckon we're well and truly bucking the trend. That speaks to me a few things, being:

* we're really clear with players as to what our selection policy is
* we understand our squad's strategic and tactial weaknesses, and move the magnets accordingly from week to week to suit.
* the whole squad is buying in.

I'd say Young's omission has more to do with JUH staying in, and I am stoked our club has backed Marra in this week.

[Before I Die]

Gold Coast is 14th with half as many wins and half the percentage. We should be developing our strongest possible team, letting them gel as a unit, and letting Gold Coast worry about us.

And based upon what Young has shown in his 4 games this year he is certainly best 22. (17 possessions and 400 metres gained at centre half back- GardnerÂ’s best 12 and 100) (hitouts 9 - Bruce 5 is his best) (His goal from the boundary last week was a gem).


Does his contract specify only 2 consecutive games???

Except that he clearly isn't. Those numbers indicate that he may be a better ruckman than Bruce. The thing is that Bruce in not in the team as a ruckman. They show that his highest possession game this season was higher than Gardners. It was probably higher than 95% of Dale Morris' games across his entire career too. That doesn't make him a better backman than Gardner or Morris. Statistics provide some insight, but they are only part of the full picture. The saying 'Lies, damn lies, and statistics' was coined for good reason.

I am extremely confident that the MC not only has a lot more statistics than us, but they also understand the contexts and correlations between the data. I hope Young keeps listening to the feedback he is receiving and gets to a stage where he really is best 22.

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

Except that he clearly isn't. Those numbers indicate that he may be a better ruckman than Bruce. The thing is that Bruce in not in the team as a ruckman. They show that his highest possession game this season was higher than Gardners. It was probably higher than 95% of Dale Morris' games across his entire career too. That doesn't make him a better backman than Gardner or Morris. Statistics provide some insight, but they are only part of the full picture. The saying 'Lies, damn lies, and statistics' was coined for good reason.

I am extremely confident that the MC not only has a lot more statistics than us, but they also understand the contexts and correlations between the data. I hope Young keeps listening to the feedback he is receiving and gets to a stage where he really is best 22.

Please post more! That's exactly the sort of nuance that stimulates interesting conversation here! We don't know what the MC are thinking, but what we can be sure of is that its not a simplistic equation. Its a multi-variable analysis, with lots of discussion around risk mitigation of our weakness balanced with consideration of where, how and who can deliver us a competitive advantage.
I'm pretty sure no decision is made just to single stats in one area. Its a balancing act. And it's not an exact science.

[Danjul]

Except that he clearly isn't. Those numbers indicate that he may be a better ruckman than Bruce. The thing is that Bruce in not in the team as a ruckman. They show that his highest possession game this season was higher than Gardners. It was probably higher than 95% of Dale Morris' games across his entire career too. That doesn't make him a better backman than Gardner or Morris. Statistics provide some insight, but they are only part of the full picture. The saying 'Lies, damn lies, and statistics' was coined for good reason.

I am extremely confident that the MC not only has a lot more statistics than us, but they also understand the contexts and correlations between the data. I hope Young keeps listening to the feedback he is receiving and gets to a stage where he really is best 22.

Based upon what I saw last week against Sydney Bruce should be dropped and Young should stay in. He contributed twice what Bruce did. Bruce was back to 2020 form, dropped marks and poor kicking. I’m certain the MC understands what they are doing but very few on WOOF are capable of explaining it.

[soupman]

Pretty content with the changes.

Scott has been good imo but is due for a break and McNeill in for him is effectively no change.

Dunkley makes the loss of Libba much easier to deal with.

Naughton for JUH, and JUH for Hannan is amazing. Hopefully it allows them all to shine and I am optimistic JUH has a much less nervy game this week.

Smith for Wallis improves our run drastically.

The only one I don't like is Young for Crozier. I'm still yet to be convinced by Young but I think he has a lot more to offer us than Crozier. If we are looking to play three talls down back then Crozier does not help that, and Wood is better at his role anyway.

Happy with us not playing Sweet, Gold Coast are terrible in the ruck, but I don't see Sweet as actually making a meaningful difference in there and English will suffice. I know the argument is that Sweet in allows English to play forward but that means JUH out and I'd much rather see a side that has English around the ground and JUH up forward than Sweet not linking up and English forward.

Also I have been really pleased with what Cordy has offered this year and would absolutely pick him over what Young has shown.

[comrade]

Marra staying in is the highlight, for sure. Given Bevo's presser, I gave him practically no chance of playing this week but I'm chuffed he's getting another opportunity especially with Naughts by his side. We get to see the future, now.

[Danjul]

In round 12 against Fremantle Gardner came back from injury and had 3 possessions. He clearly wasnÂ’t match fit but was lauded for meeting all his KPIs. Can someone please explain how. That will help this contributor understand selections.

Just donÂ’t do it by simply saying each of his possessions is worth 4 of YoungÂ’s.

Similarly, Against Sydney
Young had 13 possessions, 9 hitouts, 6 one %ers and a goal.
Bruce had. 8 possessions, 0 hitouts, 0 one %ers and a goal.

And I am the only person who canÂ’t see how YoungÂ’s performance is vastly inferior.

On second thoughts, donÂ’t bother.

[jeemak]

I just don't see the omission of Young as necessarily meaning 'papers stamped' or being a bad thing.

We've found it hard to discern selections, but I think the reason behind that is different than in recent years.
My opinion, and obviously, it is only that, without access to internal intel, is that the players and club have a clear set of KPIs driving selection decisions. I also think that our strategic issues/limitations around the ruck position, might also add another layer of decision making from week to week.
We do seem to value pressure, and a commitment to defensive spreading and work rate off the ball to keep a specific shape.
Our best work, comes off the back of being able to deny the opposition quantity of opportunities in their forward half and keeping the ball in our half.

We were not beaten in the content by Sydney, or in the ruck. We were beaten by our inability to keep the ball inside our forward 50. They moved the ball with impunity from d50 to their forward line way too easy.
As good as Naughts is in the air, his coming back, helps us here. He's a great defensive forward.

Gold Coast are not a tall side, and I actually don't see a natural matchup for Lewis Young. English, as solo ruck, ain't gonna be the difference here, so maybe we're really looking to stretch Gold Coast on the run?

As long as the reason's for omission are clear, and the players know what the KPI's are (and our 2021 win-loss record suggests it's not impacting player buy-in) and communication to players is clear then I'm happy to give our Match Committee the benefit of the doubt.
We've used all bar 2 players on our list, and yet that doesn't seem to have impacted our overall performance. I'd love to see a comparison of players used and ladder position across seasons and clubs. I reckon we're well and truly bucking the trend. That speaks to me a few things, being:

* we're really clear with players as to what our selection policy is
* we understand our squad's strategic and tactial weaknesses, and move the magnets accordingly from week to week to suit.
* the whole squad is buying in.

I'd say Young's omission has more to do with JUH staying in, and I am stoked our club has backed Marra in this week.

I've recently been lucky enough to spend some time in leadership workshops with an ex-AFL premiership captain and from what I can gather functional clubs nail the feedback metrics and communication to players in most instances, and what we think they might be are well and truly not what's being measured.

It's not inconceivable that we have a blind spot when it comes to Lew in a qualitative sense, it's not inconceivable that he is judged more harshly in qualitative areas than others. What would be inconceivable to me though is if his quantitative KPIs to play aren't entirely well known in his line coaching/ team structure amongst both his colleagues and his coaches, and whether it's clear if he's met them or otherwise. The whole feedback process relies on integrity in this area. You buy in, you do what you're supposed to, you get rewarded. For him to get yo-yo'd but still be on the list after all this time of it happening suggests to me his quantitative targets aren't being met consistently, and that they're well known.

[Before I Die]

In round 12 against Fremantle Gardner came back from injury and had 3 possessions. He clearly wasnÂ’t match fit but was lauded for meeting all his KPIs. Can someone please explain how. That will help this contributor understand selections.

Just donÂ’t do it by simply saying each of his possessions is worth 4 of YoungÂ’s.

Similarly, Against Sydney
Young had 13 possessions, 9 hitouts, 6 one %ers and a goal.
Bruce had. 8 possessions, 0 hitouts, 0 one %ers and a goal.

And I am the only person who canÂ’t see how YoungÂ’s performance is vastly inferior.

On second thoughts, donÂ’t bother.

Bruce had an ordinary game, no doubt. Young is a bit unlucky to get dropped, no doubt. Though the statistics you provide cannot be used to compare them as they played different roles and had different opponents.

But the reality is that Young is not competing with Bruce for a place in the team. Young is competing with Crozier and the MC gave Crozier the nod. Crozier was dropped last week. He had a good game in the two's and clearly ticked whatever boxes he had been asked to tick. Young's omission has nothing to do with Bruce.

Bruce could have been dropped based on his poor game, though he has a lot of runs on the board this season which would have helped him. Naughton had to come back in. One of Bruce, Marra or Hannan had to go to make space. Dropping Hannan seems a pretty reasonable outcome.