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  1. #166
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    Re: Lets make the hard calls

    Quote Originally Posted by 1eyedog View Post
    My feeling is that English simply can't be the number 1 ruck which I think has been mirrored at the club through the acquisition of Martin, and probably the feeling out of Lobbe when we had some interest there.

    I'm not totally lost on English being our number 1 ruck but you'd think he needs to finish his apprenticeship and this would be the only reason why I'd be getting a Ceglar type.

    Totally agree that we'd need to cough up overs for Ladhams which I think would be too much of a risk when you consider the net reward.
    Why cough up anything when we have a free ruckman under our noses. He looked reasonable when we got him and he has been trained by good ruckmen. His only problem is he has been denied experience.

    When people look at Sweet they ignore how he fitted into the team.

    During Sweets 5 games Bruce and Naughton averaged 3 goals a game. Weightman got 6 goals from 3 games, so average 2. English played mainly forward in the one game for 2 goals, and he had averaged 2 goals a game previously with Martin. BontÂ’s best return for the year was 4 goals in one of Sweet Â’s games. Only in one of Sweets games was Bont goalless, but he had 30 possessions.

    Once Sweet was banished after the Melbourne game (where we still comfortably won the clearances) the goal scoring averages of these key forwards dropped by 50% over the rest of the season and (Weightman dropped slightly). The team had to rely upon midfielders for scoring. By the time it played the Hawks it kicked 5 goals for the whole game (and English managed only 10 hitouts).

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  3. #167
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    Re: Lets make the hard calls

    Quote Originally Posted by Mofra View Post
    Ceglar is better than noone but that's not a very high hurdle.
    I'd prefer we look at someone like Ceglar and a young developing ruck. Max Lynch is about the only one left OOC & gettable.
    Wouldn't surprise me if Lynch is a swap for Lipinski. I saw the game when Lynch beat Gawn for hit outs. A good swap for me.

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  5. #168
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    Re: Lets make the hard calls

    Quote Originally Posted by Danjul View Post
    Why cough up anything when we have a free ruckman under our noses. He looked reasonable when we got him and he has been trained by good ruckmen. His only problem is he has been denied experience.

    When people look at Sweet they ignore how he fitted into the team.

    During Sweets 5 games Bruce and Naughton averaged 3 goals a game. Weightman got 6 goals from 3 games, so average 2. English played mainly forward in the one game for 2 goals, and he had averaged 2 goals a game previously with Martin. BontÂ’s best return for the year was 4 goals in one of Sweet Â’s games. Only in one of Sweets games was Bont goalless, but he had 30 possessions.

    Once Sweet was banished after the Melbourne game (where we still comfortably won the clearances) the goal scoring averages of these key forwards dropped by 50% over the rest of the season and (Weightman dropped slightly). The team had to rely upon midfielders for scoring. By the time it played the Hawks it kicked 5 goals for the whole game (and English managed only 10 hitouts).
    What you are doing here and you do often is listing things that happened but demonstrate no causal links between them. I could say the covid cases in Victoria are down today because the NSW Premier resigned. Both things happened but unless I can at least theorise a plausible correlation between the 2 occurrences it is simply quoting random stats to push a narrative, whilst conveniently ignoring a wide range of other factors.

    I'm not saying you are right or wrong but you aren't remotely making an evidence backed case.

  6. #169
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    Re: Lets make the hard calls

    Quote Originally Posted by Danjul View Post
    Why cough up anything when we have a free ruckman under our noses. He looked reasonable when we got him and he has been trained by good ruckmen. His only problem is he has been denied experience.

    When people look at Sweet they ignore how he fitted into the team.

    During Sweets 5 games Bruce and Naughton averaged 3 goals a game. Weightman got 6 goals from 3 games, so average 2. English played mainly forward in the one game for 2 goals, and he had averaged 2 goals a game previously with Martin. BontÂ’s best return for the year was 4 goals in one of Sweet Â’s games. Only in one of Sweets games was Bont goalless, but he had 30 possessions.

    Once Sweet was banished after the Melbourne game (where we still comfortably won the clearances) the goal scoring averages of these key forwards dropped by 50% over the rest of the season and (Weightman dropped slightly). The team had to rely upon midfielders for scoring. By the time it played the Hawks it kicked 5 goals for the whole game (and English managed only 10 hitouts).
    It's an easy sell to me regardless of the stats. We need a ruckman and Sweet is a ruckman.

  7. #170
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    Re: Lets make the hard calls

    Quote Originally Posted by Bulldog4life View Post
    Wouldn't surprise me if Lynch is a swap for Lipinski. I saw the game when Lynch beat Gawn for hit outs. A good swap for me.
    I watched it too. The Pies were very optimistic about his performance, social media was glowing. I know I went back and read it. Grundy is locked in, is better than Lynch and is durable. He'll be foolish not to take a chance elsewhere just like Lippa would be.

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  9. #171
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    Re: Lets make the hard calls

    Quote Originally Posted by Axe Man View Post
    What you are doing here and you do often is listing things that happened but demonstrate no causal links between them. I could say the covid cases in Victoria are down today because the NSW Premier resigned. Both things happened but unless I can at least theorise a plausible correlation between the 2 occurrences it is simply quoting random stats to push a narrative, whilst conveniently ignoring a wide range of other factors.

    I'm not saying you are right or wrong but you aren't remotely making an evidence backed case.
    Your example is not valid. For correlation you need multiple data points. If there is a spike in COVID every time a NSW politician resigns we can correlate the size of the spike with the importance of the politician.

    Andrews successfully Predicted the spike by looking at the well established correlation between social behaviour and Covid outbreaks.

    In Sweets case we have 5 data points, admittedly a small data set, but they are remarkably consistent. His presence in the team does no harm.

    A causual link is not necessary.

  10. #172
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    Re: Lets make the hard calls

    Quote Originally Posted by Danjul View Post
    Your example is not valid. For correlation you need multiple data points. If there is a spike in COVID every time a NSW politician resigns we can correlate the size of the spike with the importance of the politician.

    Andrews successfully Predicted the spike by looking at the well established correlation between social behaviour and Covid outbreaks.

    In Sweets case we have 5 data points, admittedly a small data set, but they are remarkably consistent. His presence in the team does no harm.

    A causual link is not necessary.
    So if I went to 5 games this year and we won them all would that be solid data? Links are absolutely necessary or you could just be talking in random coincidences.

    If you want to make a case for Sweet sell it! Simply saying when Sweet was in the team these things happened - therefore Sweet was the cause is rubbish. Tell us why Sweet helped these things to occur if you want to convince anyone. Perhaps an acknowledgement of other possible influences on these outcomes wouldn't go astray if you want some balance and credibility.

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  12. #173
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    Re: Lets make the hard calls

    Quote Originally Posted by Axe Man View Post
    So if I went to 5 games this year and we won them all would that be solid data? Links are absolutely necessary or you could just be talking in random coincidences.

    If you want to make a case for Sweet sell it! Simply saying when Sweet was in the team these things happened - therefore Sweet was the cause is rubbish. Tell us why Sweet helped these things to occur if you want to convince anyone. Perhaps an acknowledgement of other possible influences on these outcomes wouldn't go astray if you want some balance and credibility.
    When Sweet was in the ruck for 5 games the team had over 40 clearances 4 times (80%rate) And 36 in the fifth.. Over the previous 3 seasons (60 games) the rate was 25%.

    Same with Martin.

    Why? Because they are both real ruckmen.

    In the first half of the season (the Martin-Sweet era) the team had two 100 point victories, one each.

    In the second half of the season the number of losses increased, the percentage was eroded and the team fell out of the top four. When the Martin-Sweet era finished the team went on to lose 4 of its last 7 home and away games.

    There is no evidence that having either Martin or Sweet in the team does any harm and history shows that it probably did some good. People who disagree need to provide evidence, and none have. Simply saying that I havenÂ’t offered a sophisticated multi factorial statistical analysis is simply a cop out.

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  14. #174
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    Re: Lets make the hard calls

    Naughton has to go back no ifs or butts Cordy needs to bulk up
    JUH and English and the Shaq are the targets up front
    Hannan no sorry but your a VFL star not a AFL
    Because you cant beat the boys of the BULLDOG breed!!!!!

  15. #175
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    Re: Lets make the hard calls

    Quote Originally Posted by Danjul View Post
    Why cough up anything when we have a free ruckman under our noses. He looked reasonable when we got him and he has been trained by good ruckmen. His only problem is he has been denied experience.

    When people look at Sweet they ignore how he fitted into the team.

    During Sweets 5 games Bruce and Naughton averaged 3 goals a game. Weightman got 6 goals from 3 games, so average 2. English played mainly forward in the one game for 2 goals, and he had averaged 2 goals a game previously with Martin. BontÂ’s best return for the year was 4 goals in one of Sweet Â’s games. Only in one of Sweets games was Bont goalless, but he had 30 possessions.

    Once Sweet was banished after the Melbourne game (where we still comfortably won the clearances) the goal scoring averages of these key forwards dropped by 50% over the rest of the season and (Weightman dropped slightly). The team had to rely upon midfielders for scoring. By the time it played the Hawks it kicked 5 goals for the whole game (and English managed only 10 hitouts).
    I agree. Whilst a Grundy or a Goldy would be fabulous, Sweety is worth keeping and persisting with. He was good in most games he played this year.

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  17. #176
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    Re: Lets make the hard calls

    Quote Originally Posted by Danjul View Post
    When Sweet was in the ruck for 5 games the team had over 40 clearances 4 times (80%rate) And 36 in the fifth.. Over the previous 3 seasons (60 games) the rate was 25%.

    Same with Martin.

    Why? Because they are both real ruckmen.

    In the first half of the season (the Martin-Sweet era) the team had two 100 point victories, one each.

    In the second half of the season the number of losses increased, the percentage was eroded and the team fell out of the top four. When the Martin-Sweet era finished the team went on to lose 4 of its last 7 home and away games.

    There is no evidence that having either Martin or Sweet in the team does any harm and history shows that it probably did some good. People who disagree need to provide evidence, and none have. Simply saying that I havenÂ’t offered a sophisticated multi factorial statistical analysis is simply a cop out.
    I think in hindsight (I mean we made the GF so did a lot right) not playing Sweet during the period Martin was out was a mistake. Many called for it in real time as well looking back.

    I can only guess that he, as Trengove before him didn't contribute enough to Bevo's core tenet "the turnover game"; his GPS numbers maybe indicated this.

    Problem I have with that is neither does Martin, and in the era of "the number of the beast" centre clearances are almost as important as his coveted anti counter attack mindset.

    If Sweet leaves; wow: questions need asking. I mean he's no Gary Dempsey but we missed a great opportunity to see what he's got.

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  19. #177
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    Re: Lets make the hard calls

    Quote Originally Posted by Danjul View Post
    When the Martin-Sweet era finished the team went on to lose 4 of its last 7 home and away games.
    To think we had a “Martin-Sweet era”!
    "I'll give him a hug before the first bounce and then I'll run into my pack and give them orders to rip him apart."

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  21. #178
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    Re: Lets make the hard calls

    Quote Originally Posted by LostDog View Post
    Naughton has to go back no ifs or butts
    Naughton and Bruce kicked almost 100 goals between them. Who kicks those if Naughton goes back?

    No way should Naughton be moved from the forward line. His incredible marking power would be missed.

    As I have mentioned previously a power forward is worth their weight in Gold.
    FFC: Established 1883

    Premierships: AFL 1954, 2016 VFA - 1898,99,1900, 1908, 1913, 1919-20, 1923-24, VFL: 2014, 2016 . Champions of Victoria 1924. AFLW - 2018.

  22. #179
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    Re: Lets make the hard calls

    Quote Originally Posted by bornadog View Post
    Naughton and Bruce kicked almost 100 goals between them. Who kicks those if Naughton goes back?

    No way should Naughton be moved from the forward line. His incredible marking power would be missed.

    As I have mentioned previously a power forward is worth their weight in Gold.
    Yep would spit the dummy big time if this happened. Need a quality key back way easier to find than a gun key forward.

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  24. #180
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    Re: Lets make the hard calls

    Quote Originally Posted by 1eyedog View Post
    Yep would spit the dummy big time if this happened. Need a quality key back way easier to find than a gun key forward.
    Hell they don't even need to be quality.

    A competent full back is both easier to find and is less of a downgrade on a quality one than the difference between the equivalents at the other end.
    I should leave it alone but you're not right

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