When do we write off finals?

[azabob]

Surely we still play finals?

Injuries have played a huge part in our predicament.

Coupled with underwhelming performances with majority of our topline players.

Form and attitude we can fix; I'm backing Beveridge and the team in to turn it around.

The big watch for me over the next few weeks; is what Beveridge says and what he doesn't say during his press conferences.

[Danjul]

My Summary looking at positives

Melbourne - better than us at moment, however, we are only team to kick 8 in a row, then Bont injured and we looked poor
Carlton - 2.7 in last with 5 set shots from inside 40m lost by 12 points
Sydney - they have only lost 1 game to us.
Richmond - kicking 7.19 didn't help our chances
North - they aren't much chop but we thrashed them
Adelaide - 1 point game with key players out

Injuries to English, Keath, VDM, JJ, Hannan on top of Bruce and Mclean has stretched us.

Glass half full - yes I am

I don’t see it as‘glass half full’ at all. The glass is cracked and needs to be replaced.

We have had a total of 73 goals kicked against us. An average of 12 a game so I think the backline is doing very well despite injuries. That’s match winning stuff.

Three of the four teams that have beaten us have percentages way below 100. So, generally speaking, they are not doing particularly well and only look good because they defeated us. So why did they defeat us?

Poorly performing forward line. Take out the North game and they have been terrible. Why? Total absence of tactics. Everyone heads into the left forward pocket and the midfielders with the ball try to bounce it off the roof. Naughton has to beat at least two defenders and often two teammates. That congestion causes injuries and reduces output.

So what does the new glass look like? A better game plan for the front half.

The game plan for the back half could be more attacking (less of the sideways and backwards stuff) but that’s not destroying the chances of finals at the moment.

[Mofra]

Post - Adelaide game it's line ball for me.
Lose this week and I'd put a line though our season.

"We have injuries" - well, we deliberately went thin in key parts of the ground and now it's hurting us. That's not bad luck, that's on our list management to not adequately prepare for contingencies such as this.
There's nothing to say that when Bruce, JJ, Keath and English do come back we don't have other injuries to contend with. West Coast won a flag with NicNat and Gaff out.

For anyone pointing to specifics, it's really "the vibe". We had it last year, we don't this year.

The players remaining in the side aren't the 'self-sacrifice' types every team needs, and the playing group now seem to be in self-preservation mode. Hannan is injured, ditto VDM, and Roarke dropped - and they are arguably the 3 guys who sacrifice their own games the most. That has an impact too.

[Go_Dogs]

For anyone pointing to specifics, it's really "the vibe". We had it last year, we don't this year.

The players remaining in the side aren't the 'self-sacrifice' types every team needs, and the playing group now seem to be in self-preservation mode. Hannan is injured, ditto VDM, and Roarke dropped - and they are arguably the 3 guys who sacrifice their own games the most. That has an impact too.

That’s a really great call. We’re light on for our “honest” players that do their role team first week in week out. Scott, McNeil, Libba, Gardner - we’ve got quite a few of them in our best 22 now but are missing those you mention more than I think we as supporters would be prepared to concede.

[Danjul]

Post - Adelaide game it's line ball for me.
Lose this week and I'd put a line though our season.

"We have injuries" - well, we deliberately went thin in key parts of the ground and now it's hurting us. That's not bad luck, that's on our list management to not adequately prepare for contingencies such as this.
There's nothing to say that when Bruce, JJ, Keath and English do come back we don't have other injuries to contend with. West Coast won a flag with NicNat and Gaff out.

For anyone pointing to specifics, it's really "the vibe". We had it last year, we don't this year.

The players remaining in the side aren't the 'self-sacrifice' types every team needs, and the playing group now seem to be in self-preservation mode. Hannan is injured, ditto VDM, and Roarke dropped - and they are arguably the 3 guys who sacrifice their own games the most. That has an impact too.

We won games last year when English was out (concussion I think) and we won the Preliminary Final without Keath. VDM , Hannan hasn’t been in good form. The finals will be accessible if we use the players we have sensibly.

[DOG GOD]

DG this gives me comfort, if you were optimistic I’d be concerned!!

I always had a feeling we would struggle this year, especially with the ruck set up, and more so if English and Keath were out for long periods. With the injuries and the fact we have a handful of players close to playing potential, I think it will be a massive struggle.

[Grantysghost]

We won games last year when English was out (concussion I think) and we won the Preliminary Final without Keath. VDM , Hannan hasn’t been in good form. The finals will be accessible if we use the players we have sensibly.

Finals aren't gone clearly. Top 4 is.

We know this group, a lot of talent but when things aren't going their way they tend to struggle.

If we lose this week then finals are probably at risk.

[Grantysghost]

I always had a feeling we would struggle this year, especially with the ruck set up, and more so if English and Keath were out for long periods. With the injuries and the fact we have a handful of players close to playing potential, I think it will be a massive struggle.

It's a tight competition. If you're off by 10 percent for whatever reason you're in strife.

[DOG GOD]

It's a tight competition. If you're off by 10 percent for whatever reason you're in strife.

That is true, but we just don’t seem to playing a team brand of football, and that’s a concern.

[SonofScray]

We’ve made it very hard from here.

I think finals are off the table if we lose this weekend. We’ve been poor, but also a bit stiff. I’ve been a harsh critic the past few years and none of what I am seeing feels new, just that the margins are swinging away from us at the moment. The problem is that we’ve given the league a real good look at the formula for rolling us. A big run home will need a shift in personnel and strategy.

[Sedat]

Let's not mince words. If we miss finals in 2022, it's a very poor indictment on the playing group and coaching staff, as well as list management. The level of talent is more than enough to be a top 8 team, irrespective of injury and personnel issues.

Under Bevo, we have basically followed the Clarkson Hawthorn blueprint - win a flag ahead of schedule in 2008, dip in 2009, build back up in 2010/2011 with a view to contending from 2012 to 2015. We similarly won ahead of schedule in 2016, dipped in 2017/2018 (one extra year dip but we were much younger than the Hawks at the corresponding stage), built back up in 2019/2020 with a view to contending from 2021 to 2024 (hopefully longer as we are younger than the 3-peat Hawks team). They aren't my words, they are straight from Bevo's mouth - after we lost the 2020 EF, he indicated how impatient he was for sustained success.

If we do not contend this year it is nothing less than a failure of list management, coaching, player development (or a combination of all 3). If we are honest with ourselves, we need to acknowledge this otherwise we will never address the root causes and swiftly change course. I'm still confident the club will rise to the challenge for the remainder of the season (and beyond), and don't yet subscribe to the self-defeatism of writing off this season after a bit of turbulence.

[Danjul]

We’ve made it very hard from here.

I think finals are off the table if we lose this weekend. We’ve been poor, but also a bit stiff. I’ve been a harsh critic the past few years and none of what I am seeing feels new, just that the margins are swinging away from us at the moment. The problem is that we’ve given the league a real good look at the formula for rolling us. A big run home will need a shift in personnel and strategy.

At the end of round 20 last year we were top of the ladder with both the highest points and percentage. This was achieved After defeating Melbourne who are widely acknowledged as the team of the millennium.

What has changed to put us in the present predicament? This conversation shouldn’t be happening. It is not the players.

What are the common threads in losing 7 of 9 home and away games? Which were absent in the three finals wins.

It is the change in how the players are used. We have gone away from specialist ruck and three tall targets with a return to the old ‘anyone can do anything’ philosophy. The root cause of the current malaise is the ruck at centre bounce.

Fix it. The midfielders will straighten up, the forwards will get their mojo back, the defenders will be under less pressure.

Oh, sorry. I forgot that as a club we don’t believe that ruck is relevant in the modern game.

Relevant to this game: Essendon got 6 goals 3 behinds from centre bounces to topple us from top spot last year. So what is plan B for this weekend? Cordy.

[bornadog]

The root cause of the current malaise is the ruck at centre bounce.

This is incorrect. We may lose tap outs but we are 4th in the AFL for centre clearances.

[Danjul]

This is incorrect. We may lose tap outs but we are 4th in the AFL for centre clearances.

But the clean tapouts the opposition gets cancel a lot of the benefits.

Look at the Essendon game. 9 clean clearances from centre to goal line for 39 points. (AFL website) I’m sure we lost that game by less than that. And we probably won the clearance stat.

It’s the quality of the clearances and a lot of ours are East-West. A specialist bounce ruckman gives North-South.

And they don’t need many to swing a game.

edit: I checked. We lost the hitouts 48:27 and the clearances 47:21 and we lost by 13. So we made up 26 points but it wasn’t enough to counter the ‘quality’ ruck clearances.

[Bullies]

I think Bevo wrote off the year after selection tonight.

Stop playing these "project" players he loves. For some reason he doesn't want to be proven wrong. R Smith/McComb are just no good. They take the spot of a youngster who we could be bringing through the system.

Vanders and Smith were dropped for poor form and then got injured but then come straight back in. Go figure.