Finals 2022

[bornadog]

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Western Bulldogs

The injury list:

A somewhat surprising finalist unburdened by external expectations, the Bulldogs are blessed with a healthy list at the right time. Marcus Bontempelli insists his recent adductor niggle won’t affect him. Mitch Wallis (foot) is ruled out for the season but the Dogs should be able to consider 2016 Norm Smith medallist Jason Johannisen and Hayden Crozier for the trip out west and a sudden-death elimination final against Fremantle.

Room for improvement:

Weirdly, the Doggies have played in patches all season, not locked into a win-loss-win run since the early rounds. Thus they can maintain optimism about translating a two-match winning streak into something more substantial. They had only eight wins after round 17, so now is the time to properly click into gear. Last year’s grand finalists don’t score often enough when they enter their forward 50, while their kicking efficiency needs to get better.

Watch out for:

The time is ripe for former No.1 draft pick Jamarra Ugle-Hagan to shine. With 16 games under his belt after five matches in his debut season last year, Ugle-Hagan is perfectly placed to continue to blossom. Observers got a taste of his potential in round 19, when the 19-year-old booted five goals including the match-winner in a narrow win over reigning premiers Melbourne. While we’re here, you can safely expect Bontempelli to star in the west. Furthermore, Tim English versus Sean Darcy in the ruck should be compelling.

Flag chances:

Let’s be honest - they are remote. The Bulldogs crept into the finals series and, in something of a Stephen Bradbury outcome, ended up in eighth spot after Carlton squandered their chances. Strangely, it’s familiar territory for the Dogs and coach Luke Beveridge. They famously partnered to win the 2016 premiership after winning 15 matches and finishing seventh. Then, last year, they also won 15 games and made the grand final from fifth spot (and an elimination final). However, with only 12 wins this year, the Dogs probably won’t go past week one.

Western Bulldogs

	Avg	Rank
Inside 50 Diff	7	3rd
Kick-In to Inside 50 %	28	1st
Scores from Stoppages Diff	10	1st
Goal per Inside 50 % Against	25	15th
Kicking Efficiency Diff	−3	16th

[bornadog]

[bornadog]

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Strengths

FREMANTLE V WESTERN BULLDOGS, ELIMINATION FINAL

Fremantle


The Dockers have arguably the best team defence in the competition and a complete backline that is functioning at an elite level. As a result, they rank No.1 in the AFL for scores against per inside 50, conceding from 38.1 per cent of opposition entries. Their game style involves periods of controlled possession, which allows them to rank No.2 for uncontested possession differential. Will Brodie (5.7 clearances a game) has been a crucial addition to the midfield, thriving alongside Caleb Serong (5.4) to help the Dockers rank No.3 for clearance differential (+3.0).


Western Bulldogs



The Bulldogs are the AFL's best stoppage team statistically, ranking No.1 for both clearance differential (+8.2) and scores from stoppages (+9.5). Tom Liberatore (7.2 clearances a game) and Jack Macrae (6.5) have been the leaders, with Marcus Bontempelli (5.3) always a threat when he moves into the middle. Winning the contested ball is the Bulldogs’ major strength, ranking No.3 in the AFL this season for contested possession differential (+7.8).

[Axe Man]

link
Strengths

FREMANTLE V WESTERN BULLDOGS, ELIMINATION FINAL

Fremantle


The Dockers have arguably the best team defence in the competition and a complete backline that is functioning at an elite level. As a result, they rank No.1 in the AFL for scores against per inside 50, conceding from 38.1 per cent of opposition entries. Their game style involves periods of controlled possession, which allows them to rank No.2 for uncontested possession differential. Will Brodie (5.7 clearances a game) has been a crucial addition to the midfield, thriving alongside Caleb Serong (5.4) to help the Dockers rank No.3 for clearance differential (+3.0).


Western Bulldogs



The Bulldogs are the AFL's best stoppage team statistically, ranking No.1 for both clearance differential (+8.2) and scores from stoppages (+9.5). Tom Liberatore (7.2 clearances a game) and Jack Macrae (6.5) have been the leaders, with Marcus Bontempelli (5.3) always a threat when he moves into the middle. Winning the contested ball is the Bulldogs’ major strength, ranking No.3 in the AFL this season for contested possession differential (+7.8).

Going to need Dunks to pick up Libba's slack in the clearances.

[bornadog]

Going to need Dunks to pick up Libba's slack in the clearances.

Contested Poss. as well

Rank	Name	Games	Average
1	Thomas Liberatore	22	13.14
2	Jackson Macrae	22	11.55
3	Marcus Bontempelli	21	11.24
4	Josh Dunkley	22	11.14
5	Bailey Smith	16	8.75
6	Timothy English	15	8.53
7	Adam Treloar	21	8.52

[bornadog]

“NO EXCUSE”: WHY UNDER PRESSURE BEVERIDGE MUST BEAT FREMANTLE

Kane Cornes believes Luke Beveridge is under as much pressure as anybody as we head into the AFL finals series.

The Western Bulldogs coach expressed frustrations in his press conference on Wednesday with the Tom Liberatore hamstring injury news leaking before team selection.

Cornes wonders why Beveridge allows himself to consistently get frustrated by things like this.

“Why does he worry about that? What advantage does he have holding that information for 24 hours? It’s not going to change anything that Fremantle do,” Cornes told SEN’s Whateley.

“I think this year (Beveridge) has been distracted by things that he doesn’t need to worry about.

“I don’t understand why he would be upset about that or if he was upset about it, why he would put that on the public record.”

Cornes believes Beveridge should be under enormous pressure this September, given the talent on the Dogs’ list and their drop off in 2022.

“I think of anyone in this finals series, you can look at Brisbane and you can look at Chris Fagan and their record in finals, I think Dayne Zorko is under significant pressure, Beveridge is probably one for me,” he added.

“The figure under the most pressure this finals series. Eight points up at half-time of the Grand Final last year and lose by 74 points. Fall into the finals on pure luck and on the back of Carlton not being able to get it done in the last month.

“They’ve conceded the 11th most scores in the whole of the competition. They haven’t had a defensive structure that holds up, conceding 82 points per game.

“If you look at their line-up, it is so much stronger on paper than what Fremantle’s is. Pound for pound talent wise, they want for nothing really in this side.

“If they cannot get it done against Fremantle, I think it’s going to be a significant talking point heading into next season and Luke Beveridge’s future. Then you get all the off-field stuff and that’s just another example of the bizarre behaviour he has produced this year.

“He’s under pressure, he’s clearly feeling it and I think they need to perform strongly on Saturday night against Fremantle.”

Given the unavailability of Nathan Fyfe and Matt Taberner, Cornes believes the Dockers lack firepower inside 50 and believes the Dogs simply should be winning this Elimination Final.

“Fremantle’s forward six on paper with Nathan Fyfe and Matt Taberner out, it’s the least talented forward line of the eight teams playing finals,” he said.

“They’re going to win this game off the back of their defensive structures and their ability to get after the opposition with their small forwards and turn it over in their front half, but it’s not going to be on the back of someone kicking a bag.

“It’s going to be Rory Lobb or bust and then you surround him with smalls.

“The Western Bulldogs should be winning this game of footy. The only reason Fremantle will win it is because they have a sounder coaching group that has implemented a better defensive structure that makes them really difficult to score against – the third least scored against in the competition this year.

“It’s going to be a dour affair, I think it is going to be a low scoring game, and with the talent the Bulldogs have in their line-up there’s really no excuse not to beat Fremantle with the players they’ve got out.”

[Grantysghost]

Bevo has been in a bizarre frame of mind this year.

The team has really not performed.

However: This team doesn't want for anything. Um...Yes it does.

[1eyedog]

Wow Cornes talking sense for once.

[Happy Days]

In what world is actual proven commodity and premiership winning coach Luke Beveridge under more pressure than 1-6, soon to be 1-7, fumbler of 3 consecutive top-4 finishes, Neil Craig 2.0 lookin Chris Fagan?

Maybe the one where the person commentating hates Luke Beveridge, but not in reality.

[1eyedog]

In what world is actual proven commodity and premiership winning coach Luke Beveridge under more pressure than 1-6, soon to be 1-7, fumbler of 3 consecutive top-4 finishes, Neil Craig 2.0 lookin Chris Fagan?

Maybe the one where the person commentating hates Luke Beveridge, but not in reality.

Nah Bevo is under the pump just ask the Woof community if we lose on Saturday night.

[GVGjr]

Nah Bevo is under the pump just ask the Woof community if we lose on Saturday night.

Bevo's not under the pump. We are lucky to have him.

[bornadog]

Bevo's not under the pump. We are lucky to have him.

I think Fagan was under the pump until last night. Reaching finals year after year and losing.

[Mantis]

Bevo's not under the pump. We are lucky to have him.

2023 will be an important for the coaching staff & players…. With the depth of talent we have we should be in a stronger position than is currently the case so need to see the results improve.

[GVGjr]

2023 will be an important for the coaching staff & players…. With the depth of talent we have we should be in a stronger position than is currently the case so need to see the results improve.

I don't disagree with that. From a GF last year to just sneaking into the 8 this year and that doesn't reflect well on the club but we have a chance to make an impact.
I hope the club is very aware of the reasons why we have slid down the order and that they will be looking to address that straight away.

[bornadog]

‘Young juggernaut’: Bulldogs hope Naughton can take finals flight

When the Western Bulldogs flew to Perth for a 2016 elimination final, few gave the visitors much chance of advancing past West Coast. A four-goal first term and handy early lead gave the Bulldogs belief and, by game’s end, they enjoyed a 47-point win. The spark for what became a breakthrough flag had been lit.

Six years on, and the Bulldogs are again heading west for an elimination final, this time against Fremantle but without one of their prime movers, the injured Tom Liberatore. They were something akin to the Leyland Brothers through a pandemic-impacted September last year, but can they muster another run on the road?

“Once you get to this point [of the season], it becomes something totally different. A thought turns into belief, embracing that. If you all don’t think you are truly capable, then you are no chance,” premiership coach Luke Beveridge said.

Aaron Naughton, preparing for 100th game, echoed that belief through the week.

“You probably draw on those finals experiences and those wins and see that we are capable of doing that,” Naughton said.

What is clear is that Bulldogs need the man dubbed “The Astronaut” to take flight if they are to prevail.

Naughton, a Perth local, once played for the Dockers’ feeder team, Peel Thunder, but this weekend hopes to break purple hearts. And if there is one Bulldog capable of that, it’s the star forward Beveridge this week said would have a tape of his career highlights compiled to honour a major milestone.

“We’ll recognise him for the character that he has been at our football club, and the young juggernaut that he has presented as a forward, and led the charge over the last few years,” Beveridge said.

Naughton, 22, is a young “juggernaut”, reaffirming his development with a career-high 51 goals this season. While he spent the first 18 games of his career as a defender, having been drafted in 2017 (ninth overall) to fill that role, he has since shown he is on par with modern greats Tom Hawkins and Jack Riewoldt, and Tom Lynch, heading towards that category, through their opening 100 games.

Of that quartet, Lynch averaged the most overall marks (6.4) in his first 100 games but Naughton (5.2) cannot be separated from Riewoldt (5.4) and Hawkins (5.6). In contested marks, Naughton, renowned for his excellent balance leaping into a pack, averages 2.2, bettered only by Lynch.

When it comes to goals, Naughton averages 1.8 per game, better than Hawkins (1.7), but behind Riewoldt (2.5) and Lynch (2.1). However, this year he has averaged a career-high 2.4 goals, finishing goalless just twice while kicking at least three in 10 games.

His importance is underlined in the fact he ranks fifth overall for total scoreboard impact, behind only Peter Wright, Jeremy Cameron, Coleman medallist Charlie Curnow and Hawkins.

‘Nostalgic and proud’: Past Freo favourites and current women’s captain on how to beat Bulldogs
The Bulldogs look for the headband-wearing tall as often as possible, for he has been the inside-50 target almost 27 per cent of the time. That’s understandable, for it’s been only in the past six weeks that fellow tall Jamarra Ugle-Hagan has been an importance presence, while Josh Bruce - who had enjoyed a fine partnership with Naughton until wrecking his knee late last year - has struggled and is again out of the side.

Naughton, despite having his own knee issues, pushed on through 21 games. He said he enjoyed the weekend off through the pre-finals bye.

“I’m probably one for the bye this year. I’m a little bit sore so it was good to freshen up and I think a lot of boys were like that,” Naughton said.

“[My body] is a lot better than halfway through the year. I managed to get rid of the knee tape, which is nice. It’s feeling really good now.”

He likely faces a match up on the robust Alex Pearce, but should be confident. He had three goals when the teams last met at Marvel Stadium in round 21, although the Bulldogs were beaten, and had 13 marks (but only 1.5) when the teams met at Optus Stadium last year.

His accuracy in front of goal can be an issue - he has 33 points this season - but his shot-at-goal accuracy of 53.7 per cent this year is the second best of his career. Importantly, as Wayne Carey has noted, he has “learned other tricks and can kick goals in other ways”.

“More than a mark-kick forward, he’s become dangerous at ground level and backs it up with second and third efforts,” Carey wrote in The Age.

Naughton says the highlight of his career to date was last season’s grand final run, ended only by Melbourne’s third-term onslaught.

“Obviously, last year, the finals series, to win a couple of finals, to fall one short was a little bit disappointing, but to get that exposure in some pretty big games was the highlight,” he said.

Now comes that chance to go one better.