Primarily Father/Sons and 'live trading':


Brisbane: Picks 34, 35, 36, 38, 55, 73

My thoughts are 99.9% chance they've done an under the table deal with GWS to have them NOT bid in Ashcroft at Pick 1. So they will get Fletcher & Ashcroft at a lesser price and no deficit.


Draft Points:

34. 542
35. 522
36. 502
38. 465


Effect on Draft to Us:

Assuming all picks in the 30's are exhausted in matching bids. Say at Pick 2 and 15. Then our picks become Picks 12, 22 and 37.


Any Opportunity to Us:

Not really. Only that our Pick 39 slides into Pick 37 which improves its trade value, or gives us an opportunity to prey on another clubs NGA kid before they get rights once the draft hits Pick 40.



Essendon 4, 22, 54, 62, 68, 72

Obviously linked to Alwyn Jr and Jayden Davey. Plus Munkara if he slips passed Pick 40.

Alwyn Jr doesn't look like slipping to Pick 24 (after shuffling). Without a heap of Draft Points after Pick 24, they look like they might need to get fairly active in trading or waiting to 'live trade' on the Pick 24.

As I see it, they could look to trade up the order. Hypothetically, we let them know we were going to bid on him with our Pick 23 (after shuffling). Essendon could look to trade Pick 24 to us for Pick 23. For that, they'd have to hand over a F3 if they want ' the cake and eat it too' option by trading up before the bid. They're still very low on Draft Points so we may need to throw in our likely unused Pick in the 60's to make the deal work.

The less risky option for them, it to trade out Pick 24. I think we are we placed to go for it, if we wanted to pursue it. Their Pick 24 for our Pick 39, 60's Pick and F2 (tied to Brisbane). That's a very, very solid outcome for Essendon. If we really rated a kid at Pick 24 and was worth trading in a an early Second Rounder for two Late Second Rounders, then there's a move here.


Effect on Draft to Us:

Assuming all picks in the 30's are exhausted in matching bids. Say at Pick 2 and 15. Then our picks become Picks 12, 22 and 37.


Any Opportunity to Us:

Potentially, if we can offer them points and flexibility to maximise the Davey Matched bid.



Adelaide: Picks 46, 56, 59

They have right not about 685 Draft Points (Before shuffling from Brisbane and Essendon). That might swell out to around 830 Draft Points after shuffling. Assuming Max Michalanney is an early Second Round Selection, they're pretty well set for points, but then nothing much else. If their NGA kid, Isaac Keller, gets just passed Pick 40, they will need some extra Draft Points. Our Pick in the 60's would probably do the trick for them.


Effect on Draft to Us:

N/A if we are not using a ND Pick after Pick 37 (after shuffling)


Any Opportunity to Us:

Perhaps is they wanted our pick in the 60's to secure Keeler (getting passed Pick 40) and probably then get another residual late pick after matching the bid, this could be a good 'live trade' for therm. Perhaps offering them that and our natural F4 for their F4. A slim upgrade of F4. Ideally, being greedy, the exchange of the F4 tied to Melbourne would be better. Then essentially its Schache (likely to have been delisted) and Pick 69 (not going to be used) - two unwanted things - for say Pick 60 next year is a sweet little outcome for unwanted things of the club.




Other public rumours of Pick Trading:


Sydney. Not sure the conditions about them wanting Humphrey to trade up the order.


GWS offering up Pick 19. This usually gains in value after the first draft night, as a gun kid slips and all the clubs assess it and usually a club offers a lot to get the first pick of the second night (Pick 19). Such as Brisbane getting Dev Robertson in this exact type trade.

If we were absolutely crazy for a kid at Pick 19 and we didn't think he'd slide to our Pick 21 and wanted to do something about it. I could only imagine, if we somehow ended up with Essendon's Pick 22 (after the end of the first night) that we could offer GWS Picks 21 and 22 (23 and 24) for their Picks 19 and 31 (Picks 21 and 35).

We'd have to be absolutely crazy for such a 'slider' as getting that two pick upgrade for the first pick of the second night effectively returns our third pick back to the mid/late 30's. Meaning we're effectively (hypothetically here) trading the F2 (tied to Brisbane) to get that small upgrade to get the first pick of the second night. Which is exactly what Brisbane paid to land Dev Robertson - a second round pick to get a one pick upgrade (plus getting a token future 4th back). So it's not without precedent.

Assuming Davey Jr doesn't go on the first night, Dodoro might look to the GWS Pick 19 & 31 for their Pick 22 and a Future Second Rounder. Which gives them Picks 4, 19 (first pick of night 2) and Davey x 2 and maybe Munkara - for giving up a F2. I guess it depends on how aggressive Dodoro wants to be, and how they see themselves finishing next year and the relative strength of that F2 Pick.



The 'us' of it all:

While i'm hoping we are looking down every 'live trade' opportunity, i'm thinking there's limited scope to think there's going to be wholesale change to our picks. After shuffling (4 Father/Sons at circa Picks 2, 15, 24, 25 - but 5 picks soaked up in matching bids) i'm thinking we have: Picks 12, 23 and 38 (Before the NGA kicks in at Pick 40).

Hopefully we can get a little something for offloading, via live trading, the Pick in the 60's assuming a couple of clubs might need for some draft points attached to the pick. Won't be much (ie slight F4 upgrade), but anything is a bonus.

Then assuming no chances to our list structure, two rookie list spots for the rookie draft. Hopefully a ruckman for depth, and i'm guessing a recycled player, with publicly rumoured names linked to us already as Oskar Baker (wing) and James Rowe (forward). With so many older, fragile bodies, overlooked players could do worse than come to Footscray VFL and hope to impress and see if a Mid Season Draft spot opens up.

Assuming the phantom drafts are close to the mark, we are looking at a Top 21 Pick forward (Konstanty, George) and developing KPD (Busslinger, Weddle), an open shot with Pick 38 and then some depth in the rookie draft. Being added to Lobb and Jones.


Then the focus turns to next year, draft and/or trade:

First (Dogs)
First (Bris)
Second (Bris)
Fourth (Dogs or upgraded)
Fourth (Melb)
Fourth (Geel)

Salary Cap freed up circa $1,000,000

Croft as a Father/Son option, form dependant