Why the AFL draft isn’t working

[bornadog]

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On Monday night, when the AFL’s 18 clubs assemble for the opening night of the national draft, the Richmond Football Club will be notional participants and seated at the table as Gillon McLachlan calls out the first 20 names.

However, if the rules permitted, the Tigers may as well stay at home because they will be mere bystanders to whatever unfolds.

Richmond have no first- or second-round pick in 2022, and they don’t have a 2023 first-round choice to trade on the night either.

The Tigers’ first choice will be later, on Tuesday night, at pick 53 – by which stage, many clubs’ recruiters will be finished.

That weak hand restricts the Tigers’ capacity to bring in talent, but they’ve already done their work by gaining Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper from the Giants via well-executed trades. They’ve arguably done more to strengthen their premiership prospects than any club.

Having won three premierships between 2017 and 2020, Richmond ought to be on a major downswing, with a vanishing core of premiership stars. Yet, they’ve chosen to defy the system’s natural gravity by rejecting the draft – this year at least – and using mature players to vault back into flag contention.

Taranto, pick two six years ago, has been gained for picks 13 and 19, while Hopper cost the Tigers only next year’s first and pick 31.

Geelong, meanwhile, managed to acquire Tanner Bruhn (Greater Western Sydney) and Ollie Henry (Collingwood), for the essential cost of only picks 18 and a youngster not in their best 25 (Cooper Stephens). The Cats, in a ground-breaking deal, also landed Jack Bowes and pick seven, owing to the farcical fact that they had more salary-cap room than Gold Coast.

This time 12 months ago, North Melbourne were overjoyed to have Jason Horne-Francis at pick one. Today, he’s a Port Adelaide player, sprinting out of Arden Street despite a contract.

On Monday and Tuesday night, experts will declare particular clubs have “done really well” and improved their lists with judicious choices.

But recent events – and the continuing trend of players choosing their clubs, irrespective of age or contracts – mean that the draft may not prove a panacea, even for those clubs purported to have brained ’em.

The draft, while important, is no longer shaping the destinies of teams, in terms of winning games and finals, in the way that it did, or as intended when it was introduced, alongside the salary cap, in 1986. It is important, but less influential than a decade ago.

“The draft is almost irrelevant to the top four or so clubs,” says Gold Coast chief executive and ex-Hawthorn and AFL football boss Mark Evans. He notes that the draft has been weakened, as an equalisation measure, “given the increase in player movement and players wanting to play at clubs in premiership contention”.

Senior club figures and list managers note that players these days are more willing to leave, as Horne-Francis and Henry did; that the best players pick the good teams higher on the ladder (see Tom Lynch and Jeremy Cameron), that they nearly always get their wish; and the club that loses the player usually cops whatever “collateral” is available.

Players have always largely been able to get to their preferred club. “But they’re doing it more and they’re doing it sooner,” says Wayne Campbell, the ex-Tiger great, current Suns and former GWS head of football.

In theory, the team losing the player should get a fair price. In practice, as Campbell observes, the return “doesn’t necessarily correlate to the value of the player”.

In Melbourne’s case, they had to accept Fremantle’s two first-round picks – one that was pick 13 – for Luke Jackson because that was all the Dockers could offer. Jackson was uncontracted. Today, players don’t really “seek a trade to a Victorian club”. They ask for a trade, such as Adam Cerra to Carlton.

With expansion to 18 teams, on paper no more than two teams get two top-20 picks from a lowly finish. Early priority picks, which fast-tracked Hawthorn (2008) and Collingwood’s (2010) flags, were cancelled by Melbourne’s tanking scandal. Free agency was introduced, a measure that clearly favours the top sides.

“You have to have more levers than simply relying on the draft,” says Carlton chief executive Brian Cook, who was at Geelong when the Cats – whose 2007 to 2011 dynasty was draft-based – flipped sharply to trades and free agency.

The player-movement culture shifted dramatically when free agency was introduced in 2012. It is revealing that most premiership teams have utilised free agency or trades to a significant degree (the 2016 Bulldogs an exception). The two best players in the 2022 grand final were Isaac Smith, who cost the Cats zero in draft terms, and Patrick Dangerfield, whom they picked up cheaply due to his access to free agency.

Lynch, too, cost the Tigers zilch draft picks in 2018.

As I noted in 2014, when Tom Boyd and Ryan Griffen walked out, despite contracts, free agency shifted how players viewed their relationships with clubs, just as the introduction of no-fault divorce in the 1970s encouraged a culture in which there were more de facto and short-term, live-in relationships: Players, like those emancipated, post sexual revolution couples, had permission to leave.

The two best players in the 2022 grand final were Isaac Smith, who cost the Cats zero in draft terms, and Patrick Dangerfield, whom they picked up cheaply due to his access to free agency.

Faced with a choice between a late draft pick and a proven mature player like Taranto or Hopper, the contending team will want the mature player – provided they have the salary cap room.

This leads to another important shift that has undermined the draft’s mission of comforting the afflicted and afflicting the comfortable: That the better teams can pay players less than the weaker ones.

Lynch and Cameron accepted pay cuts to cross from expansion teams to Richmond and Geelong. Lynch accepted $400,000 a season less at Richmond than he might have received at North. At expansion teams, first-round picks who’ve done squat are handed $400,000-plus in their third year.

Perversely, if you have less access to top-10 picks, as with Geelong and Richmond, then your salary cap is relieved of those inflated third- and fourth-year contracts. It is a safe bet that Sam De Koning, a gun in the 2022 premiership, did not play for much, relative to his value in year three.

The Brodie Grundy trade also underscored the draft’s diminished potency compared with player payments. Grundy was traded to Melbourne for pick 27 – hardly his real worth. But Collingwood’s real gain was the loss of the bulk of a contract worth $900,000-plus over the next five years; the Pies were prepared to lose Grundy and pay a decent share of his contract to create room.

If father-sons and academies compromise the draft, a greater structural imbalance is where players come from, with roughly 55 per cent deriving from Victoria. Geelong, without access to high picks for eons, has ended up with 17 local players (Geelong, western district and surf coast) if you count Cameron.

Another draft issue: the sheer length of time that the pure rebuild takes, as Carlton and previously Melbourne – which had three consecutive attempts before getting it right – can attest.

The draft remains the best and most important vehicle for clubs to pick themselves up from the bottom. Or to regenerate an ageing list. It provides the foundation – such as Carlton’s five A-graders – on which to add. “You have to have something to build with first,” says one renowned list manager.

Once, clubs traded for show and drafted for dough. Today, the draft only gets you on to the fairway, or out of the sand trap.

[GVGjr]

The draft is just part of the recruitment process with the trade period playing it's part as well. It really depends on where clubs are on the ladder and their ability to trade for established players to determine what their focus needs to be.
Geelong have defied the odds over a long period of time and other clubs will start to follow that lead.

We aren't really a destination club for players to be requesting trades too us so the draft is vitally important to us.
I think there has been a focus on balancing some of the out of control salary caps at clubs which has distorted this years trade period.
If clubs get back on track the focus on the draft will start to strengthen.

[Dogs 24/7]

If the salary cap is monitored correctly then it will even itself out over time and wont matter if clubs trade or draft for players.
Geelong getting players to sign for lesser money is working for them.

[Go_Dogs]

I think it’s a fair summation of where things are at, and if you can sustain success over a period of time with top 4 finishes it becomes a more self-sustaining proposition as you can attract and retain talent more easily. There are exceptions of course.

Once you get young talent in the door you’ve got to have the right culture and development - North clearly got that part of it wrong last season with JHF. We’ve done well retaining our high end talent - maybe some of that is to do with the character of players we’ve selected too.

Didn’t realise that stat that 17 of the Cats listed players are “locals”. Definitely helps.

[bornadog]

We aren't really a destination club for players to be requesting trades too us so the draft is vitally important to us.

Even draftees are some times demanding where they want to play or not play eg not wanting to move interstate and this year we have Philipou who is demanding he plays for a big club.

[GVGjr]

Even draftees are some times demanding where they want to play or not play eg not wanting to move interstate and this year we have Philipou who is demanding he plays for a big club.

Do you have the link that he is demanding to be drafted by a big club?

[FrediKanoute]

Do you have the link that he is demanding to be drafted by a big club?

The phrases he uses like playing font of big crowds would appear to suggest that he wants a big Vic club to come in for him. Its subtle, but there.

[GVGjr]

The phrases he uses like playing font of big crowds would appear to suggest that he wants a big Vic club to come in for him. Its subtle, but there.

Well if that is scaring off clubs that's their problem.

[Bulldog4life]

The phrases he uses like playing font of big crowds would appear to suggest that he wants a big Vic club to come in for him. Its subtle, but there.

I read it on WOOF.

[Grantysghost]

If you're a player at the higher end of the ability scale you now have a mechanism to move where you want to.
That's always going to favour the teams who benefit from having the luxury of big games.
The system is broken, and we definitely need to remove players ability to choose a club.

It will balance things out quickly when your choice is don't play or stay where you are.

This is why it's super important for us to to stay competitive. If we slide, players like Lobb won't be looking at us.

[bornadog]

Do you have the link that he is demanding to be drafted by a big club?

https://7news.com.au/video/sport/afl...-6316126922112

[GVGjr]

https://7news.com.au/video/sport/afl...-6316126922112

The head line is very different to the footage. There was no warning to smaller clubs.

[jeemak]

The head line is very different to the footage. There was no warning to smaller clubs.

He clearly said he'd love to play in front of big crowds and at the MCG every couple of weeks. I know most players would, but with this and how much he clearly rates himself and isn't afraid to talk about it I can see why some might see a few read flags.

[GVGjr]

He clearly said he'd love to play in front of big crowds and at the MCG every couple of weeks. I know most players would, but with this and how much he clearly rates himself and isn't afraid to talk about it I can see why some might see a few read flags.

The inference was that he was demanding to play at the bigger clubs as a way of explaining that the draft isn't working but on the link supplied I don't think this is a correct reflection on what he said.
Yes he would enjoy playing at a bigger club and yes he said something like he was made for Melbourne. He has also said he would move interstate. Based on the clip it shouldn't discourage any club from drafting him.
Do you think if GWS calls his name out first he is going to moan about it? I don't.

Even draftees are some times demanding where they want to play or not play eg not wanting to move interstate and this year we have Philipou who is demanding he plays for a big club.

[jeemak]

The inference was that he was demanding to play at the bigger clubs as a way of explaining that the draft isn't working but on the link supplied I don't think this is a correct reflection on what he said.
Yes he would enjoy playing at a bigger club and yes he said something like he was made for Melbourne. He has also said he would move interstate. Based on the clip it shouldn't discourage any club from drafting him.
Do you think if GWS calls his name out first he is going to moan about it? I don't.

No, he won't moan about it but he'll be going to a big club within a few years.

I'm not saying he was demanding to go to a bigger club mind you, just that he said that he wanted to play in front of big crowds and at the MCG every second week, which most kids if asked would say they would as well. But there's enough in it to be wary from our point of view.