I've been looking at our Salary Cap / Total Player Payments.

[bulldogtragic]

De Koning at Carlton will be out of contract at the end of 2023 and said he will put off any contract talks till the end of year.

Any takers?

Can we lure him with a big contract and is he worth it

Not sure he's my priority, while a huge talent. Just for me, i'd like to draft a mid with a First Rounder, package up two firsts for a mid or KPD and take a FA mid/KPD at minimum. Whilst the optimist in me wants Keath, Jones and Bruce to succeed as KPDs for two years. That's probably their careers done there. With Darcy playing possibly anywhere, Gardner and Busslinger need reinforecments for two years or possibly sooner if the 'old mens club' bodies don't hold up as I'd hope for.

So looking more at the OOC list. Caleb Serong somehow remains uncontracted. His stats this year rate around Liberatore & Dunkley for clearances, centre clearances, stoppage clearances, contested possessions, disposals and tackles. With Dunkley gone, and Libba not getting any younger. I think we could do worse than try to get a young bull to cover the loss and impending loss of two old bulls.


But for the fun of it, here's our ongoing shopping list from the thread/s to date:

Bergman
Lohmann
Butts
Tom De Koning
Sam Taylor
Lohmann
Callaghan
Mckay (FA)
Fiorini (FA)
Himmelberg (FA)


From the views and options raised to date, so far I like a gun mid at the draft first round, a gun mid such (worth First and Future First), KPD Free Agent (ie McKay or Himmelberg ideally as higher quality options, but if they're off the table then maybe lesser FA options like Melican or even Menegola if he continues to perform as a defender could be solid 'ready to play' additions) and Lohmann for a Second & Fourth to complete the forward line. With two fourth rounders for late picks, and likely two rookie draft picks (or SSP selections).

(The inverse is say the 2 x Firsts for a gun KPD, and then the best midfielder FA. From a Fiorini, Parish, Crisp, Dylan Moore & Gresham)

Added to Jones, Lobb, Busslinger, Clarke, Gallagher and Baker (plus one more) - that's not a bad mini-list rebuild in just two years.

[Bulldog Joe]

De Koning at Carlton will be out of contract at the end of 2023 and said he will put off any contract talks till the end of year.

Any takers?

Can we lure him with a big contract and is he worth it

Where does he fit for us and where would recruiting him place Sam Darcy. Josh Bruce would definitely not have a spot with Naughton , Marra, Darcy and English if De Koning was added.

[Hot_Doggies]

Crozier isn’t on his initial contract after Freo. He is on a smaller one when he resiigned with us in 2020.

[F'scary]

I can safely say while those are valid questions. Our TPP is not the reasons why either left. There’s no way we we’re very close (let alone exceeding) to the cap with both of them staying. Dunkley got more cash and wanted out. It seems Hunter could’ve been going one way or another. This was the option that cost the least. Paying part of his salary for a third rounder wouldn’t make much sense. To get rid of both Dunkley & Hunter to save a million dollars would have us paying insane money to all our players to be close or exceed the cap. We are not doing that as even our highest paid players are on reasonable contracts.

They left for different reasons, but they byproduct is lots of picks in, and lots of cap opened up. We don’t manage our books like Ned Guy!

But what about the Fitzroy rule: don't we have to spend up to a % of the total allowed?

[bulldogtragic]

Crozier isn’t on his initial contract after Freo. He is on a smaller one when he resiigned with us in 2020.

Fair point HD, good pick up. You’d imagine he’d been still on good money on his existing contract having played 54 games in that first contract while being a regular senior player (22 games in 2019 including the EF). I can’t imagine his salary would be substantially lower based on his output before his extension. Probably didn’t get a pay rise to re-sign in 2020 (or I hope he didn’t), but off the back of 22 games inc. the EF in 2019 (and his off-field professionalism) we probably didn’t take a razor to his contract either is my best guess.

(We were negotiating with him prior to COVID being fully present in its impact on the sport/club/wages (and society) and he re-signed before the first lockdowns were announced and season later stuffed. So probably not likely to have been materially reduced on this either)

[bulldogtragic]

But what about the Fitzroy rule: don't we have to spend up to a % of the total allowed?

It’s a floating figure, the minimum TPP. You can pay under like we will this year (as low as 95%), and then use the ‘banked’ 5% savings within the next two years (as high as 105%). Or restructure existing contracts to move it beyond two years.

[bornadog]

Where does he fit for us and where would recruiting him place Sam Darcy. Josh Bruce would definitely not have a spot with Naughton , Marra, Darcy and English if De Koning was added.

2024 will be a different setup. Will Bruce be around? Darcy uncertain on being a ruck and it is an area we need to strenthen.

[F'scary]

It’s a floating figure, the minimum TPP. You can pay under like we will this year (as low as 95%), and then use the ‘banked’ 5% savings within the next two years (as high as 105%). Or restructure existing contracts to move it beyond two years.

Well, we have a lot of players contracts up at the end of 2023. Looking at that list, there are an easy 6 to 8 who should free up some space.

[bulldogtragic]

I've been digging up as much information and detail on our TPP for my own interest, and thought i'd share it if anyone was/is interested in this stuff.....


Salary Capp/Total Player Payments Space Opened:


Dunkley - $3,250,000

Note: across 2023-22027 - 5 years x $650,000 offered, and rejected. This leaves quite a great cap space for us.


Hunter - $800,000

Note: 2023 and 2024 - 2 years x around $700,000. In 2021 his contact was about 'only' $625,000 reportedly in an article I found so i'll use this lower number to keep it more conservative. Assuming we paid about 1/3 his contact: $1,250,000 less $450,000 = $800,000. Sure we are giving Melbourne some cash, but we are freeing up a heap too. Hopefully we've given up less than $225,000 a season. But even if we have, that's still a big net gain.


Keath - $500,000 (if retired *and* the trigger contract extension was at the same salary automatically)

Note: At the time Mark Ricciuto said the Bulldogs offer was "more than double what he was on at Adelaide". That was rumoured to be WBFC paying about $500,000 to $550,000 to outbid St Kilda and Hawthorn at the time. Will be 32 coming into 2024 in his last year on contract.


Bruce - $500,000 (if retired) or perhaps $100,000+ if a reduced extension offered

Note: The rumour was that signing on was in the vacinity of $500,000 to $550,000 a season. My recollection he was back-ended at St Kilda to around $600,000 a season. Will be 32 in mid 2024 in his last year on contract.


Crozier - $500,000 (if delisted)

Note: At the time it was rumoured it was fight between St Kilda and WBFC to get him out of Fremantle, and ended up being a price Freo couldn't match and hence why it was a very cheap trade cost. The rumour was $500,000 or slightly more to get it across the line. Just 15 games out of a possible 49 games (30%) across the last two seasons. Now coming into his last year of contract.


Other Trades/FA/Delistings from 2023 after accoutning for new salaries - $800,000:

Plus: Wallis, Martin, Butler, Cordy, Schache (was on about $330,000 alone), Parker

Note: The 'average' AFEL salary in 2021 was $372,224. Less the rookie contracts for draftees (combined $295,000 based on 2021 salary rates), and i'm assuming basic wages for Sweet, Khamis upon upgrading and for Baker taking Sweet's rookie list spot. My guess is the net effect is moving on (in additon to Hunter and Dunkley) mature, previously regular AFEL players players like Wallis, Schache, Cordy and Martin with the two kids saves us overall a ball park $8000,000.

The *assumption* is Schache's $330,000 former wage covers the new draftee salaries of $295,000 and some. Then Parker for Baker on the RL. Butler and Schache's extra for Sweet. Sweet's RL wage for the other SSP. Then Wallis, Martin and Cordy *if* only on $330,000 averaged each (and well under the AFEL average salary of $372,224), less say something like nearly $200,000 Khamis. Leaves a net saving of ballpark $800,000 for all the list management, in and out, above Dunkley and Hunter.



Walk around money:

Duryea - a couple/few hundred thousand. Will be 33 at the start of 2024, his last year of contract.

Hannan - a couple/hundred thousand. Would want to play more than 7 games as per 2022, coming into a contract year.


*Assuming no other trades out



Math time:

So assuming the $650,000 on Dunkley and $400,000 on Hunter is either 'salary cap banked' and rolled over into subsequent years, or paid out to other player early and thus opened up for 2024 onwards (restructuring). That means for 2024 that there's $2,100,000 ready to redeployed on just these two former contracts. The other 2023 delistings bring that up $2,900,000+.

Say one of Keath, Crozier and Bruce retires ($500,000) and the other two extend a one year deal but with say $100,000 pay reductions for 2024. That opens up another $700,000 in salary savings for 2024. (Even if they all stay, they fall away the following year freeing up the cap in any event and I say all as I just don't see paying Crozier as a priority)

Duryea retires next year, and Hannan takes a pay cut if he's extended into 2024. Say $300,000+ here.

That opens up $4,100,000+ (with cap banking and/or cap restructuring) for 2024, and the balance of the rejected Dunkley contract of $650,000 for 2025, 2026 and 2027. So another $1,950,000 longer and in addition to the $3,900,000+. = $5,850,000+ over the next five years



So to say we are flush with cash is an understatement.

In an aggressive trade strategy next year, say drafting our First Rounder, then going hard after a gun midfielder with Brisbane's First Rounder and our Future First, and a gun Free Agent. As i've said in other threads, if it can be two top mids and a top KPD i'd be stoked.

Say the two new guns/very good players are on a combined $1,400,000 for 5 years. That's $7,000,000 that needs to be found to cover the wages over the life of the contracts. So reduced immediately by the $3,900,000+ in contract savings, and the $1,950,000 in the run off from Dunkley rejecting us. That's bringing down the cost of acquiring two gun players to about $1,150,000 over 5 years. Or just $230,000 a season. Which with salary cap increases may erase any actual deficit.

So we can afford to try to go buy some seriously good players and draft some too. If we can convince them to join us.


Now, some will be thinking 'we need to re-sign all our guns' though. As it happens, I found a thread today with player contracts. Who knew right? The main ones are in 2024 in English, Smith, Darcy, Naughton and Marra. Naughton and English are already in our top 5 for pay, so we won't need an insane amount more to keep them, but yes more I agree we will be paying more. But we should also comfortably have the cash to secure all of English, Smith, Darcy, Naughton and Marra to longer term deals.

How we will pay them to stay, a part from onfield success, is the balance of all Bruce, Keath and Crozier going. That opens up by 2024 the balance of $800,000. I can't see JJ being extended beyond 2024, Jones will have done his first two years and we'll have a good read on his body and cost to keep him if he triggers his third year (can't see him in 2026 so a saving at the end of 2023 at the latest). While guys like Hannan and O'Brien will need to regular senior players by 2024 and Tom Liberatore would be 33 heading into 2025 and may not make it passed 2024 with the way he plays. Will Lobb being playing as a 34yo in 2026? If not, there's going to be another bigger salary saving at the end of 2025. If so, I can't see him being on top dollar. Plus as more money comes into the AFEL, the players will get more via the TPP increasing too.

Presumably some players will request trades in the next season or two as well. That's life.

Treloar, Bonts, Lobb, Weightman, Daniel, Dale and Macrae are locked away long term already. With the expected English, Smith, Darcy, Naughton and Marra too. Plus the trade/free agent guns.

If we can do this by the end of 2023, then the dream is that when Tasmania go out trying to poach uncontracted gun players that our 'must retain' players are already going nowhere.


I'm also very, very confident (in my educated guess) that we are not near 100% of the cap either. So there's still spare space in my opinion to play with to continue to top up younger player contracts to keep them too. The reality is some players will request trades or take free agency no matter what (Hamling, Adams, Dahl, Dunkley, Cordy etc. etc. - or retire early Redpath, Biggs, Cloke, Wood etc.) so there will be some attrition in our players no matter what, and thus some additional savings in our cap.

The list structure of having the extra two rookie list spots saves us about $10,000 a year too. Moreover though, the standard rookie list contract (last time I read the AFEL rules/constitution) isn't included in the salary cap/TPP either. (I just checked again, Rule 10.11 "Payments to Rookie Players Outside Total Player Payments" - *if it's still currently in effect as it appears*). So further cost savings to our salary cap/TPP are here. Along with generous allowance for 'Additional Services Agreements' to players licensing their images for commercial use paid outside the cap worth circa $1,000,000, which we are no doubt using to the full extent with our bigger name players.

From there, onfield success is the thing that needs to keep the players at WO. Like Hawthorn, Geelong and Richmond, at some point if you want to have a shit-ton of success, then players need to re-sign at reasonable contracts to accomodate retention and acquisition of new players. Onfield success, is the key. It's not a huge leap of faith to suggest that this list, coaches right, selected right, and kept healthy and motivated to succeed will have that success, have the good Friday and Saturday night games, play finals and win finals. Remembering, (before the pandemic belt tightening from the AFEL) winning the GF was a financial windfall of $1,200,000 and losing was $660,000 (as our players from 2016 and 2021 would know well). So there's potentially more cash on top of your salary, and on top of the club's salary cap/TPP if you climb the mountain.


But as I was digging through the publicly available data on salaries for my own interest, I thought i'd let you know what I found and my read of things for those of you interested in this stuff. It's just 'ball park', but it's the best I can dig up online. Even 'ball park', my expectations on Sam Power over the next 12 months are huge. He has millions and millions spare to spend on retention of guns before Tasmania FC becomes a thing, plus millions and millions for securing new guns and up to three first rounders to trade (2023 x 2, 2024 F1) although i'm up for trading one in 2023 and the 2024 F1 (like say for a player of the quality of the Taranto trade structure) and using one First Rounder pick next year. Sam Power needs to convince guns to bypass Geelong, Carlton and Richmond and come to us. Watch this space I hope....

No excuses for the players, no excuses for Bevo and no excuses for Sam Power. There is simply more premierships in the near term from where we are right now.

Thought I would bump this with an update.

I think it?s conceivable that we clear some wages from Keath, Croz, Hannan, Duryea and maybe Bruce as players on a reasonable salary (minor salaries freed from Sweet & Khamis leaving). So the cap space is still going to be there. It?s not like we should be holding onto these guys.

Now imagine if English leaves, with his estimated $750,000+ for next year freed up and more ongoing then not allocated.

I know I bang on about this, and the media doesn?t like to talk about it, so I will in lieu, but if are not chasing multiple good players I will be staggered.

The salary cap increases generally with us are apparently built into players contracts. That is the TPP rises 15%, players contracts automatically rise by they or close to it. With so much (for lack of a better term) non-allocated salary cap, that money isn?t automatically going to anyone. So in a sense, when it does rise there will be a nice bump in addition.

The update also includes Croft which was not a factor at the beginning of the year. Now we look like needing to either trade our first together to get ahead of the bid? or? trade them out. Using our bunch of later picks to get him cheaply.

Now. If we can?t find a way to trade ahead of a high Croft bid, the next best contingency is to trade them out. Not for Lobb types (older top up the list types but younger talented players in their prime or about to hit their prime (refresh/rebuild strategy but not with brand new kids). In this playing out of a Croft contingency, the dogs are open to trading two first rounders in a strong draft, plus free agents, with several millions to spend. Irrespective of English and any monster offer he may or may not need to leave for.

It?s been relatively quiet from our side in the press, but if we aren?t the biggest player this trade period I will be very surprised. Leaving aside matching a bid on a first round athletic 200cm footballer and a possible NGA should he slide got done reason (Lual).

We need to clean out 8 spots to use all our picks/points on Croft. But it?s not just cutting and regenerating, the outs have held good contracts that expire this year. The clean out offers the club even more salary cap to pursue its agenda. If the club still believes it?s in its window, and it apparently does, then the circumstances are coming together perfectly:

We already have heaps of cap room with Dunks & Hunter going
We will re-sign everyone we want at a salary we want to pay
We need to open about 8 spots for getting Croft cheaply
Many of the likely 8 are in expiring and well paying contracts, whose body/form is waning
We may have to trade one or two of our first rounders to avoid a Croft bid wiping them out
If English requests a trade, he?s under contract and it will be for overs
If English leaves, a former AA #1 ruckman appears cheap and gettable (Grundy) if you believe Gary Lyon?s inside word
Lual, may or may not make pick 40 - that?s out of our control
We have no restrictions on trading future picks, including the first rounder

[bulldogtragic]

When you take the 30,000 foot view, and look at the TPP, the likely outs (and their wages), our now highly rated Father/Son and strategy there, our strong draft hand and the likelihood of several trade requests, then a picture emerges of a club with huge levels of cash and motivated to trade high picks - a club that thinks its in the window. A club that could shape the trade period (be it a good thing or bad thing).

[bulldogsthru&thru]

All this and we'll end up just trading in Henry and Tomlinson

[bulldogsthru&thru]

We need mids badly. Quality ones. Another KPD and ruck are next in line.

It will be an interesting trade period to see if the club still believes we're in the premiership window. Especially if we don't make finals this year. Do they go hard for established talent with this cash? Do we do another top up on fringe players?

[Mantis]

We need mids badly. Quality ones. Another KPD and ruck are next in line.

It will be an interesting trade period to see if the club still believes we're in the premiership window. Especially if we don't make finals this year. Do they go hard for established talent with this cash? Do we do another top up on fringe players?

I'm challenged by this... we already have too many... yep they're getting on, but do we just not play the likes of Macrae, Treloar and Libba?

Or does mids = wingers?

[bulldogsthru&thru]

I'm challenged by this... we already have too many... yep they're getting on, but do we just not play the likes of Macrae, Treloar and Libba?

Or does mids = wingers?

Well its a good point. All our mids are getting on and a few are looking like it. But are they poor enough to drop? Probably not yet. But the cliff is coming. I think in the next season or 2.

Then we'll have Bont supported by the likes of Garcia, West and Smith (assuming the latter stays). Not great reading and not much depth behind it.

I suppose the alternative is to delay getting quality mids until a rebuild. But we'll have Bont at his peak then, as well as Marra, Naughts, English (maybe), Darcy really hitting their straps. We'll want mids raring to go at that point.

[Grantysghost]

BT - operation get Menagola. Go.