I've been looking at our Salary Cap / Total Player Payments.

[Bulldog Joe]

BT
I agree that we clear some salaries from Duryea, Keath, Bruce and possibly Crozier and that will at least partially occur even if we retain any of them as they would be reduced salary.

However, I would be absolutely amazed if Hannan, Sweet and Khamis are on anything other than base.
If they go they get replaced by someone else on base salary so that is net zero from them regardless.

[bulldogtragic]

BT
I agree that we clear some salaries from Duryea, Keath, Bruce and possibly Crozier and that will at least partially occur even if we retain any of them as they would be reduced salary.

However, I would be absolutely amazed if Hannan, Sweet and Khamis are on anything other than base.
If they go they get replaced by someone else on base salary so that is net zero from them regardless.

I?d guess Hannan would be a little more, not huge, having been a trade target. But I don?t see huge savings in Sweet & Khamis. I?d expect them to be on more than a draftee taken after pick 40 wages (way under half the average AFEL wage), but that?s negligible compared to the Dunkley, Hunter and all the myriad name?s mentioned. The big savings were laid out.

[bornadog]

Didn't want to start a new thread.

Looks like Conner Rozee is about to sign a monster 8 year contract which will take his contract to be the same length as Naughton.

[Hotdog60]

Didn't want to start a new thread.

Looks like Conner Rozee is about to sign a monster 8 year contract which will take his contract to be the same length as Naughton.

I wonder if Cornes will have much to say about this when it gets finalised.

[jeemak]

I wonder if Cornes will have much to say about this when it gets finalised.

He'll justify his difference in opinion by outlining that Rozee is a multiple All Australian, whereas Naughton isn't. Ignoring that players like Naughton are much more difficult to find and secure long term.

[Grantysghost]

He'll justify his difference in opinion by outlining that Rozee is a multiple All Australian, whereas Naughton isn't. Ignoring that players like Naughton are much more difficult to find and secure long term.

Rozee is going to be given the captaincy too

[bulldogtragic]

I've been digging up as much information and detail on our TPP for my own interest, and thought i'd share it if anyone was/is interested in this stuff.....


Salary Capp/Total Player Payments Space Opened:


Dunkley - $3,250,000

Note: across 2023-22027 - 5 years x $650,000 offered, and rejected. This leaves quite a great cap space for us.


Hunter - $800,000

Note: 2023 and 2024 - 2 years x around $700,000. In 2021 his contact was about 'only' $625,000 reportedly in an article I found so i'll use this lower number to keep it more conservative. Assuming we paid about 1/3 his contact: $1,250,000 less $450,000 = $800,000. Sure we are giving Melbourne some cash, but we are freeing up a heap too. Hopefully we've given up less than $225,000 a season. But even if we have, that's still a big net gain.


Keath - $500,000 (if retired *and* the trigger contract extension was at the same salary automatically)

Note: At the time Mark Ricciuto said the Bulldogs offer was "more than double what he was on at Adelaide". That was rumoured to be WBFC paying about $500,000 to $550,000 to outbid St Kilda and Hawthorn at the time. Will be 32 coming into 2024 in his last year on contract.


Bruce - $500,000 (if retired) or perhaps $100,000+ if a reduced extension offered

Note: The rumour was that signing on was in the vacinity of $500,000 to $550,000 a season. My recollection he was back-ended at St Kilda to around $600,000 a season. Will be 32 in mid 2024 in his last year on contract.


Crozier - $500,000 (if delisted)

Note: At the time it was rumoured it was fight between St Kilda and WBFC to get him out of Fremantle, and ended up being a price Freo couldn't match and hence why it was a very cheap trade cost. The rumour was $500,000 or slightly more to get it across the line. Just 15 games out of a possible 49 games (30%) across the last two seasons. Now coming into his last year of contract.


Other Trades/FA/Delistings from 2023 after accoutning for new salaries - $800,000:

Plus: Wallis, Martin, Butler, Cordy, Schache (was on about $330,000 alone), Parker

Note: The 'average' AFEL salary in 2021 was $372,224. Less the rookie contracts for draftees (combined $295,000 based on 2021 salary rates), and i'm assuming basic wages for Sweet, Khamis upon upgrading and for Baker taking Sweet's rookie list spot. My guess is the net effect is moving on (in additon to Hunter and Dunkley) mature, previously regular AFEL players players like Wallis, Schache, Cordy and Martin with the two kids saves us overall a ball park $8000,000.

The *assumption* is Schache's $330,000 former wage covers the new draftee salaries of $295,000 and some. Then Parker for Baker on the RL. Butler and Schache's extra for Sweet. Sweet's RL wage for the other SSP. Then Wallis, Martin and Cordy *if* only on $330,000 averaged each (and well under the AFEL average salary of $372,224), less say something like nearly $200,000 Khamis. Leaves a net saving of ballpark $800,000 for all the list management, in and out, above Dunkley and Hunter.



Walk around money:

Duryea - a couple/few hundred thousand. Will be 33 at the start of 2024, his last year of contract.

Hannan - a couple/hundred thousand. Would want to play more than 7 games as per 2022, coming into a contract year.


*Assuming no other trades out



Math time:

So assuming the $650,000 on Dunkley and $400,000 on Hunter is either 'salary cap banked' and rolled over into subsequent years, or paid out to other player early and thus opened up for 2024 onwards (restructuring). That means for 2024 that there's $2,100,000 ready to redeployed on just these two former contracts. The other 2023 delistings bring that up $2,900,000+.

Say one of Keath, Crozier and Bruce retires ($500,000) and the other two extend a one year deal but with say $100,000 pay reductions for 2024. That opens up another $700,000 in salary savings for 2024. (Even if they all stay, they fall away the following year freeing up the cap in any event and I say all as I just don't see paying Crozier as a priority)

Duryea retires next year, and Hannan takes a pay cut if he's extended into 2024. Say $300,000+ here.

That opens up $4,100,000+ (with cap banking and/or cap restructuring) for 2024, and the balance of the rejected Dunkley contract of $650,000 for 2025, 2026 and 2027. So another $1,950,000 longer and in addition to the $3,900,000+. = $5,850,000+ over the next five years



So to say we are flush with cash is an understatement.

In an aggressive trade strategy next year, say drafting our First Rounder, then going hard after a gun midfielder with Brisbane's First Rounder and our Future First, and a gun Free Agent. As i've said in other threads, if it can be two top mids and a top KPD i'd be stoked.

Say the two new guns/very good players are on a combined $1,400,000 for 5 years. That's $7,000,000 that needs to be found to cover the wages over the life of the contracts. So reduced immediately by the $3,900,000+ in contract savings, and the $1,950,000 in the run off from Dunkley rejecting us. That's bringing down the cost of acquiring two gun players to about $1,150,000 over 5 years. Or just $230,000 a season. Which with salary cap increases may erase any actual deficit.

So we can afford to try to go buy some seriously good players and draft some too. If we can convince them to join us.


Now, some will be thinking 'we need to re-sign all our guns' though. As it happens, I found a thread today with player contracts. Who knew right? The main ones are in 2024 in English, Smith, Darcy, Naughton and Marra. Naughton and English are already in our top 5 for pay, so we won't need an insane amount more to keep them, but yes more I agree we will be paying more. But we should also comfortably have the cash to secure all of English, Smith, Darcy, Naughton and Marra to longer term deals.

How we will pay them to stay, a part from onfield success, is the balance of all Bruce, Keath and Crozier going. That opens up by 2024 the balance of $800,000. I can't see JJ being extended beyond 2024, Jones will have done his first two years and we'll have a good read on his body and cost to keep him if he triggers his third year (can't see him in 2026 so a saving at the end of 2023 at the latest). While guys like Hannan and O'Brien will need to regular senior players by 2024 and Tom Liberatore would be 33 heading into 2025 and may not make it passed 2024 with the way he plays. Will Lobb being playing as a 34yo in 2026? If not, there's going to be another bigger salary saving at the end of 2025. If so, I can't see him being on top dollar. Plus as more money comes into the AFEL, the players will get more via the TPP increasing too.

Presumably some players will request trades in the next season or two as well. That's life.

Treloar, Bonts, Lobb, Weightman, Daniel, Dale and Macrae are locked away long term already. With the expected English, Smith, Darcy, Naughton and Marra too. Plus the trade/free agent guns.

If we can do this by the end of 2023, then the dream is that when Tasmania go out trying to poach uncontracted gun players that our 'must retain' players are already going nowhere.


I'm also very, very confident (in my educated guess) that we are not near 100% of the cap either. So there's still spare space in my opinion to play with to continue to top up younger player contracts to keep them too. The reality is some players will request trades or take free agency no matter what (Hamling, Adams, Dahl, Dunkley, Cordy etc. etc. - or retire early Redpath, Biggs, Cloke, Wood etc.) so there will be some attrition in our players no matter what, and thus some additional savings in our cap.

The list structure of having the extra two rookie list spots saves us about $10,000 a year too. Moreover though, the standard rookie list contract (last time I read the AFEL rules/constitution) isn't included in the salary cap/TPP either. (I just checked again, Rule 10.11 "Payments to Rookie Players Outside Total Player Payments" - *if it's still currently in effect as it appears*). So further cost savings to our salary cap/TPP are here. Along with generous allowance for 'Additional Services Agreements' to players licensing their images for commercial use paid outside the cap worth circa $1,000,000, which we are no doubt using to the full extent with our bigger name players.

From there, onfield success is the thing that needs to keep the players at WO. Like Hawthorn, Geelong and Richmond, at some point if you want to have a shit-ton of success, then players need to re-sign at reasonable contracts to accomodate retention and acquisition of new players. Onfield success, is the key. It's not a huge leap of faith to suggest that this list, coaches right, selected right, and kept healthy and motivated to succeed will have that success, have the good Friday and Saturday night games, play finals and win finals. Remembering, (before the pandemic belt tightening from the AFEL) winning the GF was a financial windfall of $1,200,000 and losing was $660,000 (as our players from 2016 and 2021 would know well). So there's potentially more cash on top of your salary, and on top of the club's salary cap/TPP if you climb the mountain.


But as I was digging through the publicly available data on salaries for my own interest, I thought i'd let you know what I found and my read of things for those of you interested in this stuff. It's just 'ball park', but it's the best I can dig up online. Even 'ball park', my expectations on Sam Power over the next 12 months are huge. He has millions and millions spare to spend on retention of guns before Tasmania FC becomes a thing, plus millions and millions for securing new guns and up to three first rounders to trade (2023 x 2, 2024 F1) although i'm up for trading one in 2023 and the 2024 F1 (like say for a player of the quality of the Taranto trade structure) and using one First Rounder pick next year. Sam Power needs to convince guns to bypass Geelong, Carlton and Richmond and come to us. Watch this space I hope....

No excuses for the players, no excuses for Bevo and no excuses for Sam Power. There is simply more premierships in the near term from where we are right now.

I posted this two years ago, and it took a while for some journalists to accept the club had managed the cap well. No doubt we?ve been putting it to good use. Hence why we were throwing out million dollar offers to Holmes & Barrass this year. Which wasn?t accepted. Huge offers knowing who we had to re-sign and that we could.

So on top of this, freed up last night:

Macrae: 3 seasons at $800,000 - $2.4M
Daniel: 2 seasons at $750,000 - $1.5M
Smith: (offer) 2 seasons c. $500,000 - $1M plus savings presumably in colloquially our marketing budget that sits outside the cap

Kennedy in: 3 seasons at maybe $500,000 - $1.5M

We might also have minor savings if Keath is retired.

Plus the salary cap is increasing significantly.


So. We have the cash to re-sign all our guns should they want to stay without any issue. But we have a VERY large salary cap position heading into next year. I?m not sure we get a free agent or put a huge offer to a gun to get them to request a trade because the cash is that good. But we are in a position to do so. I don?t think the media will look at last three years of our trading of players on large salaries and the only modest increases to re-sign gun players, such that our salary cap is in a great position. Expect stories about how all these players need to be re-signed blah, blah, blah and punch us down about how hard our stupid club will find it. The reality is, it will be easy if they want to stay. The reality is we have a huge pile of cash to try our hand at bribing a good player next year. Our cap is in good hands and being managed well.

[mjp]

...we have a huge pile of cash to try our hand at bribing a good player next year. Our cap is in good hands and being managed well.

...SO....

Given the 'best' targets would be;

- High draft picks from 2021/22/23 drafts playing for an interstate club, who should the target of our 'OVERS' offer be?

2023:

Harley Reid (West Coast)
...that's sort of it.

2022:
Aaron Cadman (Giants)
Bailey Humphrey (GC)


2021:
Finn Callaghan (Giants)
Mac Andrew has already signed a mega deal so he's out.
Josh Rachele (Adelaide)


It's pretty slim pickings.

Even the one 'candidate' (Cadman) plays a position where we have HEAPS of depth.

Salary cap space is cool until you have to find someone to spend it on!!

[azabob]

From memory and scuttlebutt we were interested in Humphrey during his draft year and even tried to trade up to get him. He is contracted until 2028…

It is being reported that Cam Rayner is about to sign a long deal and shun free agency.

So yeah, mjp no real targets to throw money at.

[mjp]

So yeah, mjp no real targets to throw money at.

That's always part of the problem right...you clear up salary space to target someone but you can't get in front of their current club to try and lure them away...

Again (and broken record here) it's gotta be more than cash you're offering...

[chef]

Again (and broken record here) it's gotta be more than cash you're offering...

And this is where not being an MCG tenant sucks, what else other than money can we offer?

[mjp]

And this is where not being an MCG tenant sucks, what else other than money can we offer?

Pick 'something'. Lean into it.

[bulldogtragic]

...SO....

Given the 'best' targets would be;

- High draft picks from 2021/22/23 drafts playing for an interstate club, who should the target of our 'OVERS' offer be?

2023:

Harley Reid (West Coast)
...that's sort of it.

2022:
Aaron Cadman (Giants)
Bailey Humphrey (GC)


2021:
Finn Callaghan (Giants)
Mac Andrew has already signed a mega deal so he's out.
Josh Rachele (Adelaide)


It's pretty slim pickings.

Even the one 'candidate' (Cadman) plays a position where we have HEAPS of depth.

Salary cap space is cool until you have to find someone to spend it on!!

I guess my working thesis is the club is going to pursue player/s whether from those drafts or older. The media reports were we put forward $1M offers to Holmes & Barrass this year. We chased Houston who I imagine was asking for a good wage. There was also some reporting we’d also reached out to Butters management. Whether we can actually sign anyone warranting such a salary is the big concern as we seem pretty much incapable of it. I completely agree. But I suppose better to have the cash and go fishing, than the opposite.

[mjp]

I guess my working thesis is the club is going to pursue player/s whether from those drafts or older. The media reports were we put forward $1M offers to Holmes & Barrass this year. We chased Houston who I imagine was asking for a good wage. There was also some reporting we’d also reached out to Butters management. Whether we can actually sign anyone warranting such a salary is the big concern as we seem pretty much incapable of it. I completely agree. But I suppose better to have the cash and go fishing, than the opposite.

I think the older players are going to be hard. The best plan is the (Tom) Boyd/JHF types. Away from home for a short time before they get a local girlfriend and develop lasting relationships with team-mates - and wanting to return. On low money and a big OVERS offer would be tantalising. The Mac Andrew deal is a good example of what is possible.

[bulldogtragic]

I think the older players are going to be hard. The best plan is the (Tom) Boyd/JHF types. Away from home for a short time before they get a local girlfriend and develop lasting relationships with team-mates - and wanting to return. On low money and a big OVERS offer would be tantalising. The Mac Andrew deal is a good example of what is possible.

Then, as you say, slim pickings.