Close games - what is going wrong?

[angelopetraglia]

In recent times both Carlton (The Blues are now 8-0 in their last eight games decided by a single digit) and Collingwood have been celebrated for their ability to close out close games. We are the exact opposite.

Since round #4 last year when we beat the Tigers by four points, these have been all our results decided by 14 points or less.

Port lose by 14
Suns lose by 7
Pies lose by 12
Swans lose by 2
Giants lose by 5
Hawks lose by 3
Eagles lose by 7
Cats lose by 4

We are 8-0. That is not just luck. Something is going drastically wrong. Even you just limit it to games decided by single digits. That is now 6-0.

Our narrowest wins in that time is Giants in Canberra by 15 and then Carlton by 20 at Marvel.

[soupman]

How many were we coming from behind in? Last night and Swans definitely. Feels like we are often constantly 2ish goals behind teams then have a late flurry to try and steal it, which can't be the best way to approach it.

[angelopetraglia]

How many were we coming from behind in? Last night and Swans definitely. Feels like we are often constantly 2ish goals behind teams then have a late flurry to try and steal it, which can't be the best way to approach it.

A number, but the Pies mastered the art of doing that. When the game is that close it is the small things in clutch moments that make the difference. We are not getting the job done when it matters. We are 6-0 for single digit games. The Blues are 8-0. That can't just be random luck can it?

The odds of randomly winning a close game eight times in a row is 1 in 256.

[angelopetraglia]

How many were we coming from behind in? Last night and Swans definitely. Feels like we are often constantly 2ish goals behind teams then have a late flurry to try and steal it, which can't be the best way to approach it.

Just by memory.

Port game I think we had control and they overrun us.
Suns game we jumped them early, then they overrun us, then we came at them late.
Pies they were always in control.
Swans game was an arm wrestle, we had some chances early in the last quarter to gap them.
Giants we were in complete control and got run over.
Hawks we were outclassed all day and came at them late.
Eagles we were outclassed all day and came at them late.
Cats we on the back foot for most of the game.

[SonofScray]

A chunk of those games I never felt we were truly in the contest. We can have 20minutes of absolutely dominant footy undone in a single F50 entry the other way. Can’t chase down leads in that world.

Saw someone describe last night as the “cats playing with their food” which is infuriatingly arrogant, but potentially true.

[angelopetraglia]

The Magpies have now won the last seven games they have been involved in with a margin of less than ten points.

Dogs are 0-6.

[angelopetraglia]

Swamp

COLL last 6 games at
@TheAdelaideOval

5 pt win - 2021 R12 v adel
5 pt win - 2022 R18 v adel
6 pt win - 2023 R05 v stk
1 pt win - 2023 R07 v adel
2 pt win - 2023 R19 v port
5 pt win - 2024 R04 v HAW

[Uninformed]

I think it gets down to confidence. We are not sure we can win. We want to believe we can win, but are not confident.

Collingwood new they could win last year if they kept doing their thing.

Libba had that look in his eyes right at the end, but Tim didn't and Bont. was tired and so not as fierce in that determination as Libba.

We were close, but not quite.

Real secret to confidence is doing it. Win a close one once and confidence sprouts, do it twice and it grows, three times, then many times and confidence becomes an unshakeable Oak.

We saw it happen over four games in 2016. It can happen again.

Dont' be discouraged by losing a close one yesterday, but know that you are close and and that is a sign that you will soon win the first close one against good opposition and build from there.

[mighty_west]

I remember it being quoted somewhere a while back that the good teams just find a way to win those close games, we have proven over the past few seasons that we aren't in the category yet giving up multiple goals in a row on too many occasions and just not being tight enough in the contest allowing our opposition a somewhat easy run at times and those stats show that we've had to somehow claw our way back in games only to fall short on the bell.

I see this team now in a transition faze with introducing younger players in different positions, Gags, Darcy, Sanders, JOD will come back in, Buku is still raw but showing good signs (what's the point of playing Keath unless the break glass everyone is injured option?), they all are and whilst most of us can see (the media cannot) getting games into these players is vital for future success as players like MacRae and Daniel are just not making the right impact they once did to help influence games, think Dale isn't far behind those two, so as the team progresses hopefully we improve as a team going forward and become that good team again, and start winning those close games.

[soupman]

The Magpies have now won the last seven games they have been involved in with a margin of less than ten points.

Dogs are 0-6.

Stats are stats but how much credit do they really get for being saved by the bell from a winless Hawthorn who fell 1 minute short of erasing a 40 point deficit?

[angelopetraglia]

Stats are stats but how much credit do they really get for being saved by the bell from a winless Hawthorn who fell 1 minute short of erasing a 40 point deficit?

Four points.

[AshMac]

I think there is an element of mental edge and grit. It didn?t decide the game - but in the final
Minute of saturday the ball was loose on our forward 50 arc - I think Holmes was chasing it - and 3 bulldogs stood a meter off him to try and create a stoppage. Not one of them dove in for the ball. One of the players was Treloar. When Holmes picked it up - Bailey Williams just stood there with his hands in the air.

It really stood out to me as a pivotal moment - not of a contested ball we should have won - but of a team too tentative to do whatever it takes to win a moment like that.

[angelopetraglia]

Peter Ryan. The Age.

The Devil is in the details at the Bulldogs

By contrast the Bulldogs aren’t winning the close ones. Since the 2021 grand final they have won just two of the nine games they have played in that were decided by seven points or less.

Their four-point loss to Geelong, who found creative ways to pull apart the Bulldogs, was their fifth loss by seven points or less from their past 11 matches.

That trend cost them a spot in last year’s finals and could have the same impact this season if the club can’t turn it around.

There are no signs it will drain Marcus Bontempelli’s spirit, but it must be testing the skipper’s patience. The overdue message from the pre-season review was that the load Bontempelli has been carrying needed to be spread across the group. Tom Liberatore has stepped up and Adam Treloar, Liam Jones and Ed Richards are trying hard.

But Aaron Naughton, Tim English, Bailey Dale and Bailey Williams need to do more while Caleb Daniel and Jack Macrae have to take a competitor’s approach into fighting for a spot as their position in the team continues to be questioned.

[BornInDroopSt'54]

Good article by Michael Gleeson in the Age:
"Dogs drop the ball despite stars shining
The Bulldogs? two best players were rampant. The Cats two best midfielders didn?t play. Tom Hawkins was kept goalless. Jeremy Cameron played on a wing.

The Dogs won all of the clearances ? centre and around the ground ? took more marks inside 50, laid more tackles, laid 10 more tackles inside 50, the Cats had seven players over 30. And yet, the Dogs lost.

Dogs drop the ball despite stars shining
The Bulldogs? two best players were rampant. The Cats two best midfielders didn?t play. Tom Hawkins was kept goalless. Jeremy Cameron played on a wing.

Not only did they lose, but despite the last-quarter surge and narrow final margin, it always felt like Geelong would win.

Tom Liberatore played a game that, even just by the numbers, was a masterclass ? 35 touches, 19 clearances 10 score involvements and nine tackles. Marcus Bontempelli had 35 disposals and seven clearances, and Adam Treloar had more touches than anyone on the ground.

That says they should have won. How did they not?

The most compelling statistic was one leading into this match that foretold what might occur: the Cats had won seven of the past eight over the Dogs.
How the Cats did it still seems a mystery. Miers was excellent rolling up from half forward as an extra mid, where his squirty kicks pierced the forward 50-metre arc. Tyson Stengle chose this game to click into gear after a slow start to the year. Brandon Parfitt is also having an excellent season.

And Chris Scott won his position."
Yes Chris Scott gets us everytime.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

We aren't good?

Overly simplistic I know but Collingwood (Premiership and a PF) and Carlton (PF and now 4-0) were/are very good sides.

Good sides don't lose to THAT Eagles side. They finish GWS off in Ballarat. We can pick examples from each game to highlight the 'why' but when it happens 8+ times or whatever it is, well, you're probably just not very good and you're relying on too few (i.e Bont and Libba).

I'm glad we are blooding Gags, Darcy, Sanders and co. We need to blood more. Daniel, Macrae, Williams, Dale etc. are the ones who should be heavily impacting games and they aren't, and haven't for a while. We need to keep turning over the list.