We're just a bad match-up for the Pies.

[mjp]

I just think we're going to win this week.

To me, Collingwood are the complete opposite of Geelong in terms of structure - and as a consequence we are a BAD match-up for them.

Are they doing a lot right? Yep. Are they a 'hard out'? Of course. But the magnets just don't stack together well.

We are most vulnerable to teams with leading, marking forwards. Like it or not, our key backs have a bad habit of conceding oppo marks within scoring range...Collingwood don't really HAVE marking forwards. They have medium sized forwards (Miocheck, Elliott) and a small forward (Hill)...but they don't have a Tom Lynch, Jeremy Cameron etc. Our back 6 match up WELL with them.

Collingwood are equally vulnerable to an oppo able to win stoppage - their back 6 - on the back of Moore - will intercept and run, but weight of D50 possession (see the Melbourne game) renders them a bit impotent in that regard because they like to create an extra/drop off player and that is HARD unless you are 50-50 at stoppage...our mids are either BIG (Bont) or desperate (Liber) and we should be able to get ascendancy in this area...

When we played them last year we were +17 in stoppage, +22 in inside 50 and a whole lot of plusses in the possession stats...I am not expecting the same dominance but I AM 100% expecting us to hold sway and win this game by around 5-goals.

Come at me!!

[bulldogtragic]

I hope you’re right.

[jeemak]

I think we're up to our eyeballs in this one and have considered the Pies a reasonable match up for us.

My main worry is giving up field advantage between the arcs and allowing run through the corridor. If we can avoid doing that then scoring becomes more difficult for them and our midfield stays in the play with their appetite for risk.

[Grantysghost]

Dogs by 25.

[Mofra]

We're a chance because we're at Marvel, but I am still concerned by the outside run match ups.

Our wings are a cobbled together week to week proposition, they have Josh Daicos who should be considered one of the best wings in the game.
Their run off half-back is incredible - Noble & Quaynor are in career best form, and Nick Daicos rolls through there too.

They're the best 'end to end' team in the comp and we can be vulnerable to scoring chains from our F50, especially with Arty out.

[Bulldog Joe]

I feel we are a real chance and agree that we match up well.

There intercept markers are our biggest issue because we don't take enough care with F50 delivery.

If we do get that right we will win comfortably.

[ledge]

Biggest problem for us is we let run ons happen and Collingwood will just rip through the middle, that’s our biggest weakness, sides take it off us at half back and fly , Collingwood the other night were in top form doing it.

[EasternWest]

Aren't you the same guy that said we couldn't win after the bye?

[lemmon]

Do we tag N. Daicos? In the last two weeks he's had a combined 15 clearances and 1100 metres gained. He might be the most damaging inside/outside mid in the comp right now and gives their midfield a different look.

[D Mitchell]

We're a chance because we're at Marvel, but I am still concerned by the outside run match ups.

Our wings are a cobbled together week to week proposition, they have Josh Daicos who should be considered one of the best wings in the game.
Their run off half-back is incredible - Noble & Quaynor are in career best form, and Nick Daicos rolls through there too.

They're the best 'end to end' team in the comp and we can be vulnerable to scoring chains from our F50, especially with Arty out.

Correct, straight down the corridor at full pace and don't mind kicking to a contest. We have the Worst defensive forward line in the competition. Good teams waltz out of defence, C'wood will roar out. Over to Bev to come up with something. Defence is de thing that separates de people from de players.

[MrMahatma]

They can be behind by 7 goals and never feel out of it.
We can be up by 7 goals and still be vulnerable to a loss.

I get structure and all that but can’t help to think their belief is their biggest strength and our demons are our biggest weekness.

[jeemak]

Do we tag N. Daicos? In the last two weeks he's had a combined 15 clearances and 1100 metres gained. He might be the most damaging inside/outside mid in the comp right now and gives their midfield a different look.

I'd consider doing something pretty radical here, and either play Vandermeer on him in a defencive role with Richards going back or play Richards on him to ease him in and not expose him to the continued bursts of pace required at half back. In both cases assuming Ed comes back.

Ed to me has the smarts to understand and quell his run, whilst he's also a great match up for him aerially. He'd be my preferred option and definitely something the Pies wouldn't expect.

[Flamethrower]

Some serious underrating of the premiership favourites going on here.

I watch Collingwood play every week (I have mates who work at Collingwood), and they are the best coached and best structured team in the competition - and it's not close. They are the ultimate champion team, with a sprinkling of elite players such as Darcy Moore, Scott Pendlebury and Nick Daicos. You could say they have mastered 4D chess while everyone else are struggling to play checkers.

That's not to say they can't be beaten, but it takes a complete team effort with zero passengers plus massive games from your elite players, and not switching off for 15 minutes like we tend to do. Also helps if the flu has gone through their club the week before too.

You basically need to have them beaten by 3/4 time because they have built the belief that they can win from anywhere.

Some inside goss from a mate who works at Collingwood. Brody Mihocek is unlikely to play and Brayden Maynard 50/50 at best.

Update - Fox Footy just said Mihocek is out.

[bornadog]

is unlikely to play and Brayden Maynard 50/50 at best.

He would be a big loss for them.

Any team is beatable and agree we can't have a lapse in concentration or they will cease on the moment and whack on goals.

[EasternWest]

I'd consider doing something pretty radical here, and either play Vandermeer on him in a defencive

Lenny Hayes just felt a surge of adrenaline.