The Bevo Era & Percentage

[bulldogtragic]

Percentage under Bevo:

Year: percentage (for/against)

2015: 115.12 (2,101/1,825)
2016: 115.41 (1,857/1,609)
2017: 97.07 (1,857/1,913)
2018: 77.32 (1,575/2,037)
2019: 107.24 (1,941/1,810)
2020: 106.67 (** C19: 1,103/1,034)
2021: 132.84 (1,994/1,501) - missed top four on percentage
2022: 108.89 (1,973/1,812)
*2023: 103.91 (1,301/1,252)

Average: 106%

Scores For: Settled around 1,900 per season - 86 points per game

Scores Against:

2016 & 2021: very low by our historical Bevo average - circa 70 points per game
Rest: around the 1,850 mark - 84 points per game (20% higher than 2016 & 2021)
2023: averaging 78.25 per game - well over 10% above 2016 & 2021 levels - about 7% better than ?rest? average


This is a Rorshack Test.


For me it says that our percentage under Bevo - considering the years of finals - is:

A) very, very poor. Not getting around it.
B) consistent of our attack/scores for - be it Stringer & Toyd or Bruce & Naughton. Same mids. Not much difference. We?ve never really grown our ability to pile on the points
C) despite paying handsomely for Lobb, our scores for has gone backwards!
D) 2016 & 2021 not by coincidence have much better defensive years. But it can?t be put down just to the players. In 2016 it was Dale, Hamling & Wood. In 2021 it was Keath, Cordy & an emerging Gardner. Same mids. Did the ruck change our defence from the midfield. In 2016 there was Roughead, Campbell, Minson & Toyd. In 2021 Stef Martin, English, Sweet and Young/Bruce. Years with a bonafide first ruck supported by a second ruck and depth.
E) our defence seems to be a litmus test of how we will fare. While this year is better than the Bevo average, it?s nowhere near the levels of 2016 & 2021.
F) the mids have largely been the same over the period (Bont, Jack, Libba, Hunter et al). Is their ability to defend or not, directly tractable to our lower scores against

It also highlights, our poor goal kicking over this period has killed our percentage. If that was fixed up you could add 10 points a game at least. But we haven?t fixed it. Bruce gave it a bump (still under 2015 levels) for just a year and Lobb has seen it go backwards. So personnel hasn?t and won?t fix it on its own. Increasing our scores got will come down to coaching, skill coaching and game planning. So let’s stop chasing external players when we can see it’s down to the coach/es.

It also highlights Bevo?s no tagging philosophy might not be brilliant. Our best years are our best team defence years. Would it not be better to help our defenders by stopping mids and run ons? If strong defence gets us to Grand Finals, then play to our strengths?

It seems to me, our mids need to raise their defence, our forwards need to get accurate, our defence needs to keep improving - all things many already know. It suggests a more traditional ruck set up is at least coincide to more successful seasons. With Bevo here for a few years, it seems defence/scores against is the key metric. So I think personnel like a Barass and a Duryea replacement are very important to success going ahead.

So the club thinks it?s in the window. It might be. If it reviews the ruck and tagger roles, kicks straight, stops oppo gun mids/run ons and bring in defensive cover in the trade period. The percentage data under Bevo whilst generally poor, does support the argument some tweaks could force us into the window. But I don?t think we do anything with the ruck, we won?t tag, we won?t stop run ons and we won?t kick straight. BUT. If we could, then the club maybe right, the window is open.

What do you see?

[Bulldog Joe]

With all those stats the most common element in everything is the coach.

Surely the coach is responsible for all that.
He is in his 9th season and how we play is absolutely on him.

[bulldogtragic]

With all those stats the most common element in everything is the coach.

Surely the coach is responsible for all that.
He is in his 9th season and how we play is absolutely on him.

No doubt. The ruck and tagger decisions are his and his philosophy. The game plan and match day tactics to stop gun oppo mids and run ins are his to manage, along with team defence. His assistants are responsible for skill development (goal kicking).

Despite the turnover in forwards (Toyd, Stringer, Picken & Smith retiring early, Naughton, Bruce, Schache, Lobb, Cody etc) under Bevo his teams all pretty much kick 84 points a game. Curious?!?

But defence numbers in 2016 & 2021 show he can get around a flat lining ‘scores for’. Without huge name KPDs. But not consistently or in sequential seasons either.

But I guess, are his philosophies dated? Does the data back them still?

[jeemak]

The other common element is the playing group. I mean, when we played well this year we were extremely difficult to score against and we had the same coach, the same players, and no Jordan Sweet or Stef Martin.

I would say their lack of application for different reasons at different times is a huge factor and I don't think they should get a free pass.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

The other common element is the playing group. I mean, when we played well this year we were extremely difficult to score against and we had the same coach, the same players, and no Jordan Sweet or Stef Martin.

I would say their lack of application for different reasons at different times is a huge factor and I don't think they should get a free pass.

Is the gameplan too taxing and unsustainable week to week? We saw it applied fairly consistently in 2016 and 2021 though i suppose. But why only twice in 9 years?

Although i think out list is getting weaker, I've always thought we've previously had a list capable of much better. Capable of 2016 and 2021 like performances. It's a giant mystery to me why we've been such a roller-coaster side under Bevo.

[jeemak]

Is the gameplan too taxing and unsustainable week to week? We saw it applied fairly consistently in 2016 and 2021 though i suppose. But why only twice in 9 years?

Although i think out list is getting weaker, I've always thought we've previously had a list capable of much better. Capable of 2016 and 2021 like performances. It's a giant mystery to me why we've been such a roller-coaster side under Bevo.

Much of the Bevo era has seen us field relatively cobbled together/ emerging forward and defencive tall structures. To me when we've been able to make it work it's been a huge credit to the players for their application and also credit to the coaching team for giving them the blueprint to follow.

I think every game plan a successful team deploys is super taxing, but especially so if you have cobbled together/ emerging tall structures at either end of the ground. By nature the bulk of the work has to be done through sheer effort and planning between the arcs.

If you believe we rebuilt in the years post 2017 to 2021 (which I do), then you'd have to say that our coaching has been really good and supported by a midfield that keeps us in and wins us more games than we lose. Last year was really disappointing, this year looks like it might fall short as well, and I think that's on everyone - not just the coaching team - because the players have demonstrated they can do it right, but have lapses in games and week to week.

Others have a different view, but I think of the Bevo years there's only been two really disappointing ones for me (2017 and 2022) and in one of them we still made finals.

[Bulldog Joe]

Much of the Bevo era has seen us field relatively cobbled together/ emerging forward and defencive tall structures. To me when we've been able to make it work it's been a huge credit to the players for their application and also credit to the coaching team for giving them the blueprint to follow.

I think every game plan a successful team deploys is super taxing, but especially so if you have cobbled together/ emerging tall structures at either end of the ground. By nature the bulk of the work has to be done through sheer effort and planning between the arcs.

If you believe we rebuilt in the years post 2017 to 2021 (which I do), then you'd have to say that our coaching has been really good and supported by a midfield that keeps us in and wins us more games than we lose. Last year was really disappointing, this year looks like it might fall short as well, and I think that's on everyone - not just the coaching team - because the players have demonstrated they can do it right, but have lapses in games and week to week.

Others have a different view, but I think of the Bevo years there's only been two really disappointing ones for me (2017 and 2022) and in one of them we still made finals.

My disappoint meter is much more volatile than yours.

I only have 2 years that I am not disappointed with.

2015 and 2016 were exhilarating, but 2021 was disappointing because the decisions from about round 17 to coast through cost top 4 and we blew a premiership.

We spent lots of time playing catch up in 2018-20 until the coach decided to play more normally.

[Mofra]

We spent all pre-season talking about setting up slightly more defensively across the ground so no surprise we're scoring as little less this year.
I do wonder how much rule changes have led to coach adjustments and the flow on effects of scoring from that.

[Mantis]

We spent all pre-season talking about setting up slightly more defensively across the ground so no surprise we're scoring as little less this year.
I do wonder how much rule changes have led to coach adjustments and the flow on effects of scoring from that.

Has this change been really noticeable? After a horror start to the season we went ultra defensive in the games that followed, but it seems to me we are playng pretty much the same as previous years now and our inability to score has more to do with ball movement and skill errors rather than the way we defend.... maybe we move the ball 'safely' (as referenced by jeemak in another thread), but to me we don't consistently play it safe and if we have more attacking options we take on that route.

[Mofra]

Has this change been really noticeable? After a horror start to the season we went ultra defensive in the games that followed, but it seems to me we are playng pretty much the same as previous years now and our inability to score has more to do with ball movement and skill errors rather than the way we defend.... maybe we move the ball 'safely' (as referenced by jeemak in another thread), but to me we don't consistently play it safe and if we have more attacking options we take on that route.

We're not 10-12m in front of opposition forwards which seems to be the most eye-ball noticeable difference.

We also use the corridor less than other clubs - two rounds ago at least we were rated 18th

[lemmon]

We also use the corridor less than other clubs - two rounds ago at least we were rated 18th

Which seems a bit bizarre to me considering we have Naughton, Ugle-Hagan and Weightman playing in our forward half who'd all thrive on the ball coming in quick and direct. We also have had Dale, JJ and Richards off half back through most of the year, who should be capable of taking the ball through the middle with some degree of safety.

I wonder if it's a directive based on our team defence? If we attack wide and turnover wide, we're in a safer position to defend the ground.

[jeemak]

My disappoint meter is much more volatile than yours.

.

Oh well, we're all responsible for our own disappointment meters.

[bulldogtragic]

Percentage under Bevo:

Scores Against:

2016 & 2021: very low by our historical Bevo average - circa 70 points per game
Rest: around the 1,850 mark - 84 points per game (20% higher than 2016 & 2021)
2023: averaging 78.25 per game - well over 10% above 2016 & 2021 levels - about 7% better than ?rest? average

So we gave up exactly 78 points again Thursday night. At least we?re consistent.

Now we have the worst percentage in the top 10 and May find ourselves out of the 8 tonight on percentage.

From choking on 2021 to give up top 4 on percentage to now, it keeps coming back to bite.

[Bullies]

We seem to over possess the footy. We have 5 or 6 players who week in week out get 30+ p's. We should be dominating the games with those stats but we don't hurt the opposition. We are happy to flick it around and gather possession after possession which results in either our forwards getting covered or we turn it over.

Maybe 2 or 3 handballs rather than 6 or 7 and give our forwards a chance. Take on the game use the corridoor and don't worry about individual stats.

[bornadog]

We seem to over possess the footy. We have 5 or 6 players who week in week out get 30+ p's. We should be dominating the games with those stats but we don't hurt the opposition. We are happy to flick it around and gather possession after possession which results in either our forwards getting covered or we turn it over.

Maybe 2 or 3 handballs rather than 6 or 7 and give our forwards a chance. Take on the game use the corridoor and don't worry about individual stats.

What you are saying is we need to be more efficient with our possessions. Not sure why we are scared of the corridor.