3 things learned from Rd22 vs Hawthorn 2023

[lemmon]

Interesting stats.

Reeves is a relative nobody on base salary who marginally defeated a touted AA ruck. It's one game, and I haven't seen enough of him to form a proper opinion, but I do think it further emphasizes the point that English isn't worth a cent over $700k.

Based on these stats, the larger growth is in Reeves' game - he's getting his hand to more ball. Get to work on where you're hitting it and how you're connecting with the mids.

Unless you have a Max Gawn, the ruck spot just needs somebody to have a presence. Anything else is luxury. English's game is unfortunately back to front for us.

My personal view is that hit-outs are the most pointless stat in footy and they tell you nothing about which midfield is actually winning the battle...BUT, what's the point having a ruck like a Mumford, Sweet, or a Will Minson when it's obvious that Bevo simply won't play them?

I think it's been clear since Bevo came in that unless you're a ruck that can run and get around the ground, you're not getting a game. I don't really see the point going after or developing a ruck that isn't in the English mould when it's clearly not what Bevo thinks is acceptable in that position.

[bornadog]

My personal view is that hit-outs are the most pointless stat in footy and they tell you nothing about which midfield is actually winning the battle...BUT, what's the point having a ruck like a Mumford, Sweet, or a Will Minson when it's obvious that Bevo simply won't play them?

I think it's been clear since Bevo came in that unless you're a ruck that can run and get around the ground, you're not getting a game. I don't really see the point going after or developing a ruck that isn't in the English mould when it's clearly not what Bevo thinks is acceptable in that position.

Wouldn't you rather a ruckman that can do more than just stand there at ruck duels and do nothing else. We missed this on Sunday because English didn't get his hands on the ball around the ground.

On Hitouts, that is why I look at HTA, has more meaning.

[lemmon]

On Hitouts, that is why I look at HTA, has more meaning.

I mean - I guess it should, but does it really?

Looking at the games on the weekend:

Collingwood won HTA 11 to 7 but lost clearances 44-36
North won HTA 12-11 and won clearances 39-34
Gold Coast won HTA 11 to 5 but lost clearances 47-43
Dees won HTA 13 to 5 and won clearances 45 to 43
Freo won HTA 11 to 9 and won clearances 43 to 30
Tigers won HTA 17 to 9 and lost clearances 30 to 29
GWS won HTA 14 to 4 and lost clearances 40 to 33
Adelaide won HTA 16 to 9 and won clearances 44 to 38

So only half the sides that played actually turned winning hit-outs to advantage into a win at clearance and some of the biggest differentials in HTA numbers still resulted in sides losing clearances overall.

I think the numbers we have publicly available that quantify how a ruckman performs at stoppage are pure crap and until there's a model that tells how much value is actually extracted from a hit-out, looking at the stats is worthless.

And I do agree with you - I think Tim is an excellent player and there's huge value in what he does around the ground. I thought it was probably his poorest game of the year on the weekend, but while he wants to be at the club, there's huge value in a guy who is already a consensus top-3 ruck in the game at 26 years old.

[Scorlibo]

I mean - I guess it should, but does it really?

Looking at the games on the weekend:

Collingwood won HTA 11 to 7 but lost clearances 44-36
North won HTA 12-11 and won clearances 39-34
Gold Coast won HTA 11 to 5 but lost clearances 47-43
Dees won HTA 13 to 5 and won clearances 45 to 43
Freo won HTA 11 to 9 and won clearances 43 to 30
Tigers won HTA 17 to 9 and lost clearances 30 to 29
GWS won HTA 14 to 4 and lost clearances 40 to 33
Adelaide won HTA 16 to 9 and won clearances 44 to 38

So only half the sides that played actually turned winning hit-outs to advantage into a win at clearance and some of the biggest differentials in HTA numbers still resulted in sides losing clearances overall.

I think the numbers we have publicly available that quantify how a ruckman performs at stoppage are pure crap and until there's a model that tells how much value is actually extracted from a hit-out, looking at the stats is worthless.

And I do agree with you - I think Tim is an excellent player and there's huge value in what he does around the ground. I thought it was probably his poorest game of the year on the weekend, but while he wants to be at the club, there's huge value in a guy who is already a consensus top-3 ruck in the game at 26 years old.

Appreciate the analysis. This shows weak correlation between HTA and clearances, but doesn't diminish bornadogs' point - HTA are more meaningful than hitouts (and are more closely correlated to clearances).

To your point that the stats around hitouts are worthless - I'm reminded of the adage 'what can't be measured can't be managed'. I see a lot of hand wringing over the increased role of stats in footy, and statements like 'stats only tell you so much' are common. I don't doubt that there are intangibles that do influence outcomes, yet so long as they're intangible, they're also intractable. So if there's something 'else' going on at ruck contests, the challenge is to identify it and measure it.

[jeemak]

Appreciate the analysis. This shows weak correlation between HTA and clearances, but doesn't diminish bornadogs' point - HTA are more meaningful than hitouts (and are more closely correlated to clearances).

To your point that the stats around hitouts are worthless - I'm reminded of the adage 'what can't be measured can't be managed'. I see a lot of hand wringing over the increased role of stats in footy, and statements like 'stats only tell you so much' are common. I don't doubt that there are intangibles that do influence outcomes, yet so long as they're intangible, they're also intractable. So if there's something 'else' going on at ruck contests, the challenge is to identify it and measure it.

I didn't know you were so passionate about statistics.

[EasternWest]

Appreciate the analysis. This shows weak correlation between HTA and clearances, but doesn't diminish bornadogs' point - HTA are more meaningful than hitouts (and are more closely correlated to clearances).

To your point that the stats around hitouts are worthless - I'm reminded of the adage 'what can't be measured can't be managed'. I see a lot of hand wringing over the increased role of stats in footy, and statements like 'stats only tell you so much' are common. I don't doubt that there are intangibles that do influence outcomes, yet so long as they're intangible, they're also intractable. So if there's something 'else' going on at ruck contests, the challenge is to identify it and measure it.

This is so much more intelligent than anything I've ever posted on here.

[jeemak]

This is so much more intelligent than anything I've ever posted on here.

That could be your signature.

[jeemak]

But you'd have to post "refer to my signature" which would be inconvenient.

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

This is so much more intelligent than anything I've ever posted on here.

Not to disagree with your message's intent, but it's setting the bar pretty low in the comparison stakes isn't it?

[jeemak]

Not to disagree with your message's intent, but it's setting the bar pretty low in the comparison stakes isn't it?

It really is a quality over quantity proposition with you these days.

[EasternWest]

Not to disagree with your message's intent, but it's setting the bar pretty low in the comparison stakes isn't it?

Oh I don't know I didn't understand any of it it just seemed intelligent. Refer to my signature.