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  1. #31
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    Re: Dogs need review of their whole footy department

    Quote Originally Posted by macca View Post
    Sam power, can you please use BT as an advisor on drafting points ? Maybe give him a hint or 2 about player list management as well.
    Sam is the best judge I’ve seen, especially on future pick trading. He’s scarily accurate about picking good times for us to trade out, and when to trade in (less Dunkley forcing his hand last year).

    So here’s my secret tip for y’all. If we are very confident about rocketing back into finals or top 6 next year you will see us trading a few future picks to try to bring in talent. If we are concerned that next year might be another year without finals or falling down the ladder you will see us not do much future trading for fear of overpaying (see Freo & Richmond this year - Lobb a little this year). Thinking on this today, this will be the tell about where we think the performances will be next year. Forget the rhetoric, future pick trading is strongly linked to internal expectation. So keep an eye on this through the trade period and then live trading at the ND to a lesser degree.
    Rocket Science: the epitaph for the Beveridge era - whenever it ends - reading 'Here lies a team that could beat anyone on its day, but seldom did when it mattered most'. 15/7/2023

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  3. #32
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    Re: Dogs need review of their whole footy department

    Quote Originally Posted by macca View Post
    thanks for sharering the secret to unlocking how to do draft point calculations.

    I am hopeless at soduko and rubix cube. No wonder this stuff makes no sense to me.
    Neither can I! But despite what might be perceived as negativity sometimes, I just want the club to reach its potential and succeed. So whenever I have a spare moment I like to think through how through trading and pick/point trading where we have priority access kids to suggest ideas for us getting back to the promise land. I can’t coach, I’m no good tactically, so list management math has become something I like to look at.
    Rocket Science: the epitaph for the Beveridge era - whenever it ends - reading 'Here lies a team that could beat anyone on its day, but seldom did when it mattered most'. 15/7/2023

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  5. #33
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    Re: Dogs need review of their whole footy department

    Quote Originally Posted by bulldogtragic View Post
    Nah, just math. I am good at calculation.

    As I say I’m pretty confident there’s a path to trade up.
    It's your super power.

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  7. #34
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    Re: Dogs need review of their whole footy department

    Quote Originally Posted by EasternWest View Post
    I remember a particular person raving to me about Ayce Cordy and to be honest I've never forgiven him.

    I've been hrt too many times before.
    The cordy experience was a big lesson - don?t get too excited with big men who do the small men stuff unbelievably well unless those big men also can do the big man parts of the game

    It also showed me how speculative 6 foot 7 and above kids generally are

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  9. #35
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    Re: Dogs need review of their whole footy department

    Quote Originally Posted by bulldogtragic View Post
    It?s a math based trade. So the normal trade narrative isn?t relevant.
    It's only math based if the player WANTED by the club doing the trading is available in either scenario...

    It becomes very flesh and blood based if there is any hint of a decision that could compromise access to the player deemed the 'golden child' (whomever that may be). From all reports, Dursma is Hawthorn's golden child, Curtin is certainly West Coast's...

    It's math based until it isn't.
    What should I tell her? She's going to ask.

  10. #36
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    Re: Dogs need review of their whole footy department

    Quote Originally Posted by mjp View Post
    It's only math based if the player WANTED by the club doing the trading is available in either scenario...

    It becomes very flesh and blood based if there is any hint of a decision that could compromise access to the player deemed the 'golden child' (whomever that may be). From all reports, Dursma is Hawthorn's golden child, Curtin is certainly West Coast's...

    It's math based until it isn't.
    True, the comment was in response to a big club getting the draft points trade. I don’t think that’s the case for GCS, I think their trade is math based.

    If it’s in the hypothetical:

    Reid - Melb
    Walter - GCS
    McKercher/Duursma- North
    Duursma/McKercher - Hawks
    Curtin - WCE
    Stevens - Dogs

    I think everyone walks out of that happy. Unless North get top compo on McKay… but then we just have to outbid Melbourne for the GCS pick if WCE wouldn’t trade the Pick 5 originally tied to Freo by refusing the downgrade on Pick 1.
    Rocket Science: the epitaph for the Beveridge era - whenever it ends - reading 'Here lies a team that could beat anyone on its day, but seldom did when it mattered most'. 15/7/2023

  11. #37
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    Re: Dogs need review of their whole footy department

    Quote Originally Posted by Bulldog Revolution View Post
    The cordy experience was a big lesson - don?t get too excited with big men who do the small men stuff unbelievably well unless those big men also can do the big man parts of the game

    It also showed me how speculative 6 foot 7 and above kids generally are
    That's sensible but makes me no less angry at you.
    "It's over. It's all over."

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  13. #38
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    Re: Dogs need review of their whole footy department

    Quote Originally Posted by EasternWest View Post
    That's sensible but makes me no less angry at you.
    Does it make you feel any better knowing we could’ve got Barry Hall a year earlier than we did but Sydney demanded the pick we wanted for Ayce? And what the 2009 prelim might have been if we had Hall in that 7 point loss and if we could’ve got over Geelong in the GF. But didn’t want to give Ayce up.

    Feel better?
    Rocket Science: the epitaph for the Beveridge era - whenever it ends - reading 'Here lies a team that could beat anyone on its day, but seldom did when it mattered most'. 15/7/2023

  14. #39
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    Re: Dogs need review of their whole footy department

    Quote Originally Posted by bulldogtragic View Post
    Does it make you feel any better knowing we could’ve got Barry Hall a year earlier than we did but Sydney demanded the pick we wanted for Ayce? And what the 2009 prelim might have been if we had Hall in that 7 point loss and if we could’ve got over Geelong in the GF. But didn’t want to give Ayce up.

    Feel better?
    No. It do not.
    "It's over. It's all over."

  15. #40
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    Re: Dogs need review of their whole footy department

    Quote Originally Posted by EasternWest View Post
    No. It do not.
    Perk up. You still have two Bentleys. So we blew a chance at a flag for ammo’s grade player.
    Rocket Science: the epitaph for the Beveridge era - whenever it ends - reading 'Here lies a team that could beat anyone on its day, but seldom did when it mattered most'. 15/7/2023

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  17. #41
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    Re: Dogs need review of their whole footy department

    Quote Originally Posted by bulldogtragic View Post
    Does it make you feel any better knowing we could’ve got Barry Hall a year earlier than we did but Sydney demanded the pick we wanted for Ayce? And what the 2009 prelim might have been if we had Hall in that 7 point loss and if we could’ve got over Geelong in the GF. But didn’t want to give Ayce up.

    Feel better?
    What wondrous comfort that brings to me BT, thanks so much for sharing that.
    I might go and watch the 2009 preliminary, and the 97 preliminary oh and stuff it the freaking 94 Billy Brown less garbage.

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  19. #42
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    Re: Dogs need review of their whole footy department

    Quote Originally Posted by Bulldog Revolution View Post
    The cordy experience was a big lesson - don?t get too excited with big men who do the small men stuff unbelievably well unless those big men also can do the big man parts of the game

    It also showed me how speculative 6 foot 7 and above kids generally are
    Cordy had an extra super power , his knee

    Your right though , talls are highly speculative
    Tom hickey is a good example
    He played well in his last 2 seasons. Was behind a few at west coast

    Schache is another example , has all the physical attributes but no angry pills.

    Come to think of it , may deserve an anlaysis of highly speculative talls in the eker thread

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  21. #43
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    Re: Dogs need review of their whole footy department

    Quote Originally Posted by bulldogtragic View Post
    Perk up. You still have two Bentleys.
    Can you stop messaging me I'm trying to sleep on a pillow filled with cash.
    "It's over. It's all over."

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  23. #44
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    Re: Dogs need review of their whole footy department

    Quote Originally Posted by macca View Post
    Cordy had an extra super power , his knee

    Your right though , talls are highly speculative
    Tom hickey is a good example
    He played well in his last 2 seasons. Was behind a few at west coast

    Schache is another example , has all the physical attributes but no angry pills.

    Come to think of it , may deserve an anlaysis of highly speculative talls in the eker thread
    Right knee, wrong Cordy.

    Played the long game with Ayce Cordy.
    More of an In Bruges guy?

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  25. #45
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    Re: Dogs need review of their whole footy department

    Quote Originally Posted by bulldogtragic View Post
    True, the comment was in response to a big club getting the draft points trade. I don’t think that’s the case for GCS, I think their trade is math based.
    Yeah - 100% mate.

    I know I quoted you but that was just on the whole 'generalisation' of trading based on 'maths' not on the specifics of the GC deal. I just think 'everyone' gets so caught up in all the discussion of points and rounds and trades right now that the fundamentals of building a list - you actually need to get the players who you need - are lost on a lot of people.

    If we trade down from our pick to get another first and a future second, we'll be better off....

    Well - MAYBE. But only if the players you pick are the right selections for your club in terms of physical fit, cultural fit and developmental fit...

    How do you get that right? Well...you (make an educated) guess. Or just guess. And cross your fingers.
    What should I tell her? She's going to ask.

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