How do you rate the Dogs' attacking firepower?

[Dry Rot]

Interesting article here about season 2023.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/1070544/...king-firepower

Especially tables at the end of the article.

We seem pretty mid table with our attacking.

Also interesting:

* Top ranking of Adelaide despite missing the finals

* Mediocre to poor ratings of finalists The Blues and Saints

Thoughts? And what do we need to do differently to be in say the top 4 or 6 rankings next season?

[FrediKanoute]

What it suggests to me is that saving goals is a far more effective way to win games than scoring them. You keep the opposition to 11 or 12 goals and you will win more than you lose.

[GVGjr]

Interesting article here about season 2023.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/1070544/...king-firepower

Especially tables at the end of the article.

We seem pretty mid table with our attacking.

Also interesting:

* Top ranking of Adelaide despite missing the finals

* Mediocre to poor ratings of finalists The Blues and Saints

Thoughts? And what do we need to do differently to be in say the top 4 or 6 rankings next season?

Thanks for this thought provoker.
We have the a pretty good balance with key forwards and players capable of kicking goals.
Spearheaded by the key forward tandem of Naughton and Ugle-Hagan with support from Lobb and Weightman it's got 4 players capable of kicking 30 plus goals in a season which should stack up well against most other set-ups. Getting a couple of others to keep the scoreboard ticking over is the key. We've also tended to get contributions from our midfield but if A.Jones, Clarke, Vandermeer or Daniel can chip in and provide another decent score we should be okay. If Lobb plays a bit more in the ruck then English might be able to add to the scoring options.

[D Mitchell]

3 of the 4 try to play the same game, 4 are a high marks then toss in Bont to make it 5. 3 are selfish and don’t work hard enough when the opposition has the ball. Bont aside, none are noted for winning the ball. I don’t think the forwards integrate their game into the team game. That’s been the last 2 years. Fingers crossed.

[Grantysghost]

What it suggests to me is that saving goals is a far more effective way to win games than scoring them. You keep the opposition to 11 or 12 goals and you will win more than you lose.

So you're saying move Naughton to defence xD

[Grantysghost]

What it suggests to me is that saving goals is a far more effective way to win games than scoring them. You keep the opposition to 11 or 12 goals and you will win more than you lose.

Stopping goals has always been the way. The best teams have great defences usually.
I don't think we will ever reach our potential with the list until we have key defensive pillars in place and playing together regularly.
Jones unfortunately has a very limited window, Keith the same, JOD is a prospect, Buss the same, Gardner you're never sure what you get.
We've got issues down back in key positions still that haven't been addressed.
Darcy is not a defender, so to make a forward a defender because we have a defender forward would pretty much be the logical conclusion to our problem right xD
Croft could be a good prospect down back. Again though I think he's naturally a forward. But he has great closing speed so possibly a chance.

[Hotdog60]

We need to look at our forward line and see how many set shots they had and what percentage they scored at.
It may be just a miss guided feeling but I think we leave more out there than we get and if we can tidy that up I think we have a forward line capable of destroying most if not all defenses out there.
We can't be missing shots from 20 to 30 metres out that's the killer.

[Jeanette54]

There is no doubt our forward line has a surplus of individual talent, and we still haven't seen the best of JUH yet. However, they play like a bunch of talented individuals. Somehow, we must instill a system whereby they play as a team, and are all willing to sacrifice a bit of their own game for the benefit of the others.

So often Naughts and Jamara contest the same high ball, and Cody (as good as he is overhead) shouldn't be amongst the high-flyers in the goal square. Relying on pack marks is not a sustainable avenue to a consistent high score. And its high risk, both in terms of injury, and the probability of turning the ball over to the defence or a minor score. Sure, it looks good, but I would much rather see 'Marra out on his own taking advantage of his vertical leap accepting a pass ten yards in front of his opponent, or Cody fastening on a loose ball.

They must also work together to spread the defence, and work for each other. There is no glory in being the one who takes their opponent to the dead pocket, but it's an essential part of team forward craft.

They have one massive advantage, in that any of Naughts, Jamara, Cody and Lobb as individuals are capable of multiple goals as individuals, but the sum of goals as individuals will always be less than that if they work as a forward team.

My two bobs worth.

[westbulldog]

Naughton's accuracy needs to improve.
Weightman to stop flying for speccies.
Lobb more in the ruck and English more forward.
Do not appoint McNeil the goalkicking coach'

[Dazza]

I feel like accuracy really lets us down. Particuarly gettable set shots.

[D Mitchell]

Stopping goals has always been the way. ...
I don't think we will ever reach our potential with the list until we have key defensive pillars in place and playing together regularly.
Jones unfortunately has a very limited window, Keith the same, JOD is a prospect, Buss the same, Gardner you're never sure what you get.
We've got issues down back in key positions still that haven't been addressed.
Darcy is not a defender, so to make a forward a defender because we have a defender forward would pretty much be the logical conclusion to our problem right xD
Croft could be a good prospect down back. Again though I think he's naturally a forward. But he has great closing speed so possibly a chance.

Our worst defe3nders are the 6 forwards and to a lesser degree, the mids. The way the ball comes out of the forward line so often and easily puts undue pressure on the defenders. Keath was below par this year and Gardner ahs his limitations but I don't blame the defenders for 2023.

[mjp]

https://www.afl.com.au/news/1070544/...king-firepower

Thoughts? And what do we need to do differently to be in say the top 4 or 6 rankings next season?

It's all lies and damned statistics mate.

The top was Adelaide who didn't play finals (but shoulda/coulda/woulda). Geelong were up there. Melbourne with their 'disfunctional' forward line were up there....

Selling out to score compromises you from an attacking POV. Selling out to defend compromises you from a defensive POV. Everything you do in your structure - either ahead of or behind the ball - is a decision that can cause an issue either at the ball (contest) or at the other end.

So often from an attacking perspective games are won by individuals who either have a 'day out' or convert low probability opportunities (or miss high probability opportunities right??). Bobby Hill was the deserved Norm Smith medallist and probably 'won' the game for Collingwood because he played the game of his life (well, apart from his efforts in the Colts game vs West Perth back in 2018 I think!) on the biggest stage imaginable. I very much doubt Brisbane went into that game worrying too much about him and there ya go...in a close game stuff like that matters.

Do you want to be on the BOTTOM of the list? Of course that's bad. But I think back to all the Malcolm Blight Geelong teams that set scoring records year after year only to fall apart in the finals...ultimately you need to score 'enough' to make the oppo respect your ball movement patterns and allow you to defend...and you need to defend well enough such that the oppo can't 'sell out' on the attacking side of the game and overwhelm you.

Footy is almost impossible to play when one side decides to go FULL ATTACK or FULL LOCKDOWN...every team goes into a game with strategies that assume the oppo will both try to score and try to defend a score...I know that sounds ridiculous but it's true...if a team was to sell out and go 100% attack from the first bounce they would be incredibly difficult to counter as pretty much EVERY stoppage setup is based around the oppo being determined to WIN the ball AND prevent you from winning it...if one team simply refuses to do that (think Melbourne in the last q, 2021 grand final) then it's essentially impossible to stop unless you go FULL counter measure...

[doggies ftw]

Our firepower individually is as good as any, it’s a bit inconsistent but our 3 main/best forwards have been between 19-22yo so that’s a bit to be expected.

The ‘big 4’ have a LOT of goals in them, very roughly I’d expect the following:

Naughty - 50 goals lock (ceiling is probably 60 odd if he gets just a little bit more accurate and has a big season)
Marra - 40 goals (ceiling, who knows, will definitely have a 60 goal season at some stage but for now where he’s at I’d pretty reasonably expect around the 40 mark)
Cody - 35 odd lock (he’s definitely a 40 goal a year player with a full season, his avg is about that - but maybe plays a different role this year so hard to say - I’d lock him in for 30-35 though comfortably)
Lobb - about a goal a game - 25 odd goals.

Conservatively with all staying fit that’s around 150 goals from the big 4, throw in 20 from Bont, ~10 from English and then of course the midfield/wings and support players who need to bob up for say ~5 a game.

There’s only so much goals to go around each game and I think we’re more than covered for raw ‘firepower’ - where we take our game to the next level in the forward half is becoming a more cohesive unit. We don’t need more players who are there to hit the scoreboard, every other player that rotates through our forward line should be purely there for support & defensive pressure at ground level. It’s why we need a couple of guys like Clarke & AJ to come through to provide that pressure, I honestly don’t care if they hit the scoreboard or not, we also need assist players - West is surprisingly very good at this, big SI & GA numbers when he plays. Clarke also was one of the better assist players in the u18s and showed that again in the VFL towards the end of the year. If he can become a Miers type that would be huge for us.

So basically, we don’t need more stars in the forward half. We’ve got them, they just need to continue to build their rapport together - people complain about them getting in each others way but they’ve barely played together, Cody, Marra & Naughty (to a lesser extent now) are just starting their careers and Lobb has only been here a year. Forward cohesion is the hardest thing to get right in the game, these guys will only get better and better the more they play together.

Then every other players focus has to be as the support cast, guys like West, Clarke, AJ, Harmes etc need to stand up this year and purely focus on defensive pressure at ground level, locking the ball in, creating space for the ‘main guys’ and feeding them good delivery.

It’ll be a really nice & balanced mix when these guys can do that

[hujsh]

I feel like our 'firepower' is mostly determined by players outside the forwardline at this stage. Aside from accuracy of set shots and a lack of natural crumbers we have enough good options up forward that the number of goals kicked should predominately be determined by our mids and defenders

[Go_Dogs]

I think we have 5 players who could kick 3 or more goals in any given game:

Naughton, Jamarra, Lobb, Weightman, Bont

We’ve then got a few others who could potentially do that although as less likely to spend enough time up forward (but could snag two or three if they spent a half up front) -

English, Darcy

All things being equal, you can then add a couple of others who can kick a goal or two in a game (not every week) -

Treloar, Libba, Williams, Baker, JJ

So…. Do we have enough firepower? Sure. Will we execute it consistently and get the mix humming week to week? That’s our big challenge. As much as I hated aspects of the great Geelong sides in the late 00’s, their passion for setting up and giving off a goal created an excellent forward mix of players who wanted to see their teammates getting reward. If we can get our mix right, there’s enough opportunity for everyone to eat.