Robbo: Why Tim English isn't worth $1 million to the Western Bulldogs

[Mofra]

People.

Robbo is tapping into a sentiment the analytics pick up from socials.

They get spoon fed the "sentiments".

Kieren Briggs is the Jordan Sweet of Jordan Sweets. That comparison wasn't accidental.

Briggs is good but last year (second half really) was the first extended showing of decent form at AFL level. He'll be West Coast's first ruck this year off the back of a few months of exposed form so even taking a 'cheap' ruck is a big risk.

FWIW Timmy was 6th in the comp for average hit outs per game. Not bad considering it's often claimed that actual ruckwork is his weakness.

[jeemak]

Briggs is good but last year (second half really) was the first extended showing of decent form at AFL level. He'll be West Coast's first ruck this year off the back of a few months of exposed form so even taking a 'cheap' ruck is a big risk.

FWIW Timmy was 6th in the comp for average hit outs per game. Not bad considering it's often claimed that actual ruckwork is his weakness.

BAD has a hit outs to advantage ranking that is even more impressive than that, I'll leave it to him to post it.

[ledge]

Didn’t Tim say he enjoyed being at the dogs and wasn’t looking to move last year ?
Personally I don’t think he is going anywhere.

[bornadog]

BAD has a hit outs to advantage ranking that is even more impressive than that, I'll leave it to him to post it.

Based on 20 plus matches he was 3rd on average per game, just .6 below 2nd.

[Vred]

You do everything you can to keep him but don't sell the farm, and yes, I agree, not worth a million.

Luxury player, don't think his winning us grand finals.

Also his concussion history scares the crap outta me.

[jeemak]

You do everything you can to keep him but don't sell the farm, and yes, I agree, not worth a million.

Luxury player, don't think his winning us grand finals.

Also his concussion history scares the crap outta me.

If he's offered $1.1M p.a. to $1.2M p.a. does the club offer him $950K p.a. (assuming comparable contract lengths across both parties) and feel good about missing him?

On those numbers we're offering 83% of what the market is willing to pay. Would you stay at your job for that?

If he's offered $1.2M p.a. to $1.3M p.a. at $950K p.a. we're at 75% of the market rate. Bumping that up to $1M p.a. in each instance puts us within 80% to 87% and only comes at a premium of an additional $1.25K p.a. per listed player.

It'd be madness not to go there to keep him, and if Sam can't find that money then what's he there for given how quickly we drop away after our top and second tier earners.

[GVGjr]

If he's offered $1.1M p.a. to $1.2M p.a. does the club offer him $950K p.a. (assuming comparable contract lengths across both parties) and feel good about missing him?

On those numbers we're offering 83% of what the market is willing to pay. Would you stay at your job for that?

If he's offered $1.2M p.a. to $1.3M p.a. at $950K p.a. we're at 75% of the market rate. Bumping that up to $1M p.a. in each instance puts us within 80% to 87% and only comes at a premium of an additional $1.25K p.a. per listed player.

It'd be madness not to go there to keep him, and if Sam can't find that money then what's he there for given how quickly we drop away after our top and second tier earners.

You make a lot of sense with how you mapped out this scenario but I'm probably a bit different to most because I wouldn't walk away from a job that I like especially at that level of money but would happily consider best offers from elsewhere if I wasn't happy. We should put in a very competitive offer but not go a lot over what we think is the maximum. There is always a bit of wiggle room.

Using your scenario, what if we think Tim is worth 900K to 1M a year over 5 years but the Eagles weigh in with 1.3 to 1.4M for 6 years? Would you still feel comfortable with the club pushing it to that level?
I get the market is the market but we certainly don't have to get into an auction with the Eagles and Tim.

[jeemak]

You make a lot of sense with how you mapped out this scenario but I'm probably a bit different to most because I wouldn't walk away from a job that I like especially at that level of money but would happily consider best offers from elsewhere if I wasn't happy. We should put in a very competitive offer but not go a lot over what we think is the maximum. There is always a bit of wiggle room.

Using your scenario, what if we think Tim is worth 900K to 1M a year over 5 years but the Eagles weigh in with 1.3 to 1.4M for 6 years? Would you still feel comfortable with the club pushing it to that level?
I get the market is the market but we certainly don't have to get into an auction with the Eagles and Tim.

If the Eagles were offering him that, I'd let him go. That's too much for my taste, and I think it would be for most. YoY we're trying to pay him 70% vs. the market, contract length it's 59% of what he could leave for. If we tried that we're in Cal Ward territory and sitting ducks for being picked apart - not just by our own players but also those we're trying to attract (not to mention the media).

But, we need to get our heads out of what the perception in the media thinks is big money, largely driven by players who never made it when they were playing and have a beef about it. Every ex-player commenting thinks the money is outrageous, and it wasn't that long ago we were all patting ourselves on the back for picking up Tom Boyd (actually, it was almost a decade ago!!!!) for roughly $1M a season, unproven, and thumbing our nose at the media rhetoric. Lambasting people like Leigh Matthews for wanting a young player to fail.

What I'm reading here to me is madness given how much we don't like basic rucks, how good English is, and how little an extra $100K or so has on our TTP in the scheme of things.

We can all pick an arbitrary number we think he's worth, but until the market gives a signal it's bullshit. Whether that's $900K today, $1.05M tomorrow. Saying we won't do this or that is silly because the contingencies are unknown and the risk is off the charts.

And sorry G the above isn't meant to be a crack at your stance. I agree there has to be a discount for staying put, that's how the market works. I guess what I'm saying is that discount can't be too big because the days of Chris Grant turning down Port money or whatever are gone (unless you play for Geelong......).

[GVGjr]

Fully agree Jeemak, while I rate Tim I wouldn't let the Eagles or anyone else for that matter push up the asking price much beyond what I was prepared to pay. Tim should be fully compensated for his talents and what he brings the team. Who knows how hard we are prepared to fight for him but I can't imagine we will go much over our max assessment of him. Power understands the market and how to manage our salary cap and I'd back him to do the right thing for the club and player. It probably won't get done as early as any of us would like but it's the nature of the beast at the moment.

[Axe Man]

Briggs is good but last year (second half really) was the first extended showing of decent form at AFL level. He'll be West Coast's first ruck this year off the back of a few months of exposed form so even taking a 'cheap' ruck is a big risk.

FWIW Timmy was 6th in the comp for average hit outs per game. Not bad considering it's often claimed that actual ruckwork is his weakness.

Flynn went to West Coast, Briggs is still at GWS having signed a 2 year extension in September.

[Grantysghost]

Now we can't afford to lose him XD

https://www.afl.com.au/news/1076405/...o-lose-english

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

I don't have much to add, but once again loving the discussion.
Some really interesting points of view.

I really like the way you've analysed the situation Jee.

I'm confident that we won't sell the farm to keep Tim, and to that end I'm sure Power and Co have games scenario's of what it might look like were Tim to get a monster offer, and how we might respond.

[bornadog]

Tim is worth every cent of $1 million plus. He is more than just a ruckman, he is a midfielder in a 208cm body. He can float back and take marks, he can be parked in the forward line if need be, and moves around the ground with ease and his ruck work has put him in the top 5 of the AFL (top 3 for hit outs to advantage).

I said a long time ago that he will take time to mature, but it was always evident (to me), that he had the talent to be a star.

Come on Dogs!, get the deal done.

[hujsh]

What I'm reading here to me is madness given how much we don't like basic rucks, how good English is, and how little an extra $100K or so has on our TTP in the scheme of things.

I can't find anyone saying to let him go over an extra 100k, everyone just has different ideas of what he's worth and what they think the club should pay. I doubt Vred (as one of the few examples in this thread with a valuation of his salary) saying he's a 950K player and what you're saying is actually that different and if he stays for 1-1.1 mil I doubt Vred or many here will lambast the club for the extra 50-150K p.a

I think we all seem to generally agree that he's worth around the 1mil a year ballpark and that 1.3-4 is probably too high a risk, especially if it's a 6 year contract (speculation) as a player in a position that has a lot of physical impact and a history of concussion issues.

[GVGjr]

I can't find anyone saying to let him go over an extra 100k, everyone just has different ideas of what he's worth and what they think the club should pay. I doubt Vred (as one of the few examples in this thread with a valuation of his salary) saying he's a 950K player and what you're saying is actually that different and if he stays for 1-1.1 mil I doubt Vred or many here will lambast the club for the extra 50-150K p.a

I think we all seem to generally agree that he's worth around the 1mil a year ballpark and that 1.3-4 is probably too high a risk, especially if it's a 6 year contract (speculation) as a player in a position that has a lot of physical impact and a history of concussion issues.

Commonsense will prevail and as I mentioned before there is always a bit of wiggle room for a quality footballer and person like Tim.