Is this Round 1 more important than any other in living memory?

[Twodogs]

Well if we lose the first two, does that tell us something.

We lost our first 2 games in 1954

[jeemak]

We lost our first 2 games in 1954

And BANG, sling-shotting off the ropes comes Twodogs!!!!

[FrediKanoute]

I always think these stats are self fulfilling. Usually teams who lose their first two games are bad and were going to miss the finals anyway. It?s not like good teams lose two games and then suddenly fall victim to the Two Game Curse and forget how to play.

Yeah, but in the current forma of 18 teams, 9 lose and 11 don't make finals. That means 50% lose, but 61% miss finals. So the chance of losing your first game (I am ignoring the possibility of a draw as it becomes too hard) and miss finals is 30.5% (assuming everyone is equal). To have a stat that says 82% of first round losers also miss finals suggests that, losing the first round is statistically significant in predicting whether a team will also miss the finals, especially when the raw score suggests that it should e closer to 70%.

[Happy Days]

Yeah, but in the current forma of 18 teams, 9 lose and 11 don't make finals. That means 50% lose, but 61% miss finals. So the chance of losing your first game (I am ignoring the possibility of a draw as it becomes too hard) and miss finals is 30.5% (assuming everyone is equal). To have a stat that says 82% of first round losers also miss finals suggests that, losing the first round is statistically significant in predicting whether a team will also miss the finals, especially when the raw score suggests that it should e closer to 70%.

You clearly haven’t kept up with the new Kane Cornes meta of Well Actually Everyone Is Bad.

[jazzadogs]

Yeah, but in the current forma of 18 teams, 9 lose and 11 don't make finals. That means 50% lose, but 61% miss finals. So the chance of losing your first game (I am ignoring the possibility of a draw as it becomes too hard) and miss finals is 30.5% (assuming everyone is equal). To have a stat that says 82% of first round losers also miss finals suggests that, losing the first round is statistically significant in predicting whether a team will also miss the finals, especially when the raw score suggests that it should e closer to 70%.

Could you apply the same stat to any other round though...for example any team that loses round 9 and round 10 is 82% chance to miss finals.

I think it's just logical that a team that loses two games in a row early in the season is less likely to make finals. Generally to make finals you need to win at least 12 games - so if you've lost your first two games, that's 20% of your allowable losses for the season.

[Mavericks]

Yes, Dees have a makeshift forward line with key players out. Oliver did not look right even though he racked up Possessions and Swan beat them with half their mids out.

we are close to full strength, coming off a preseason where the coach said this would be the fittest best prepared round 1 team since he has been there.

Agsin this year the flag is there for the taking so we need to start well and finally finish in the top 4. To me it is a must win game.

[Grantysghost]

Could you apply the same stat to any other round though...for example any team that loses round 9 and round 10 is 82% chance to miss finals.

I think it's just logical that a team that loses two games in a row early in the season is less likely to make finals. Generally to make finals you need to win at least 12 games - so if you've lost your first two games, that's 20% of your allowable losses for the season.

Yes this is it. Losses are losses, doesn't matter where they happen and the only way to prove that the first two games mean any more than other losses is to show the data for all two loss sequences during a season.
Nice click bait. If it was near the bye the headline could easily be teams that lose either side of the bye blah blah blah insert percentage miss finals.

[Can Bar]

For various reasons I have not felt confident in a round 1 win for a few seasons. Something feels different this year. My mindset may have changed watching Bevos early address about selecting the fittest team R1. As for Kane the Tagger, he should have been made irrelevant years ago. I cant understand why coaches dont kill the tagger by tagging them out of the game. lets play our best 17 against your best 17.

[DOG GOD]

We are coming up against a team where our mental state has been fragile since the GF loss. They bend us over. Beveridge said come round 1 the team will the fittest and most hungry in his time at the dogs. We shall see. But what I?m almost guaranteed of seeing, is that Melb won?t be 2.10 at half time.

[bornadog]

We are coming up against a team where our mental state has been fragile since the GF loss. They bend us over. Beveridge said come round 1 the team will the fittest and most hungry in his time at the dogs. We shall see. But what I?m almost guaranteed of seeing, is that Melb won?t be 2.10 at half time.

Never said hungry, he only said fittest.

[CarnTheScray]

I have belief in this team and a lot of things are pointing towards us having a good season, but I won?t get that feeling of trepidation out of my stomach until we beat Melbourne. Once we get that monkey off our back it is absolutely clear skies.

The team must not go into the game with trepidation, we?ve seen time and time again how much the behaviour and energy of the coach is mirrored by the playing group. This year Beveridge looks calm and refreshed, let?s hope the players are the same.

[CarnTheScray]

Well if we lose the first two, does that tell us something.

Even losing our first game tells us something. Think only about 2 premiers in the last twenty years lost their first game.

[Mofra]

This 100%. It is the first real time opportunity to establish patterns of behaviour and non-negotiable standards within the team. We just need to lay a marker for these standards in Round 1 and keep working consistently and relentlessly on these every week and every training session, and the results will take care of themselves.

I hope we did that in the second half last week.

Last night's game was a pretty stark contrast - Carlton didn't tackle in the first quarter and got thumped. Brisbane barely laid a tackle in the third quarter and got thumped. The way to win could hardly become any clearer.

Given we went 2 talls too many in Round 1 last year (1 forward, 1 back) we should be able to cover ground better and not let their distributers to kick the ball without pressure.

[Mofra]

Even losing our first game tells us something. Think only about 2 premiers in the last twenty years lost their first game.

True, although the swans got pretty close to a flag losing their first 6 or 7 one year.

[SonofScray]

Yes.

We’ll know by 1/4 time