Top 4

[aker39]

I have been reluctant to think about us finishing top 4, just wanting to guarantee top 8, so with Rocket officially declaring us finalists and now looking at top 4, I thought I'd take a look foward at our final 9 games.

Port Adelaide - they have not been playing as bad as the results suggest, but we should have no problem beating them - WIN

Melbourne - WIN

Geelong - I think we can beat them, but they have shown some very good form the last 2 weeks. - LOSS

Carlton - Yes, they were in the 8 for a week, but Collingwood is the only team in the 8 that they have beaten - WIN

Sydney - We have really struggled in Canberra against the Swans - LOSS

Kangaroos - Johnno kicks the goal, we win. We will learn from that loss - WIN

Brisbane - We smashed them two week ago, but will find it harder in Brisbane - LOSS

Essendon - Don't rate them at all - WIN

Adelaide - Could be the game that decides top 4 or not. Have been one of our bogie teams, but managed to just get over them Round 1 and think we will beat them again. - WIN


Based on my predictions, we will win 6 of our remaining 9, giving us 70 points which will gives us a spot in the top 4.

If we win 5, we will end up on 66 points. Will that be enough.

[aker39]

I just took it a step futher and did a ladder predictor. Based on that we would only need to win 3 of our last 9 games to make the 4.



Geelong 80
Hawthorn 76
Sydney 70
W Bulldogs70
Adelaide 56
Bris Lions 56
Nth Melb 50
Collingwood 44

St Kilda 40
Richmond 38
Port Adel 32
Carlton 32
Fremantle 20
Essendon 20
West Coast 12
Melbourne 8

[LostDoggy]

I have a play around on this it seems to change everytime I do it but it might help with your question.

http://afl.allthestats.com/misc/ladderpredict.php

[Go_Dogs]

Eade said that you would need about 14.5 wins to get top 4 this year I believe in his post-match interview.

For mine, we should win all of those games bar the Geelong, Sydney and Adelaide games.

I guess on the flip side, do we start resting players once we have a top 4 finish stitched up?

[LostDoggy]

There is only one problem with your ladder predictor Ninthmond isn't ninth you can't have ninthmond in 10th spot thats just crazy.

[bornadog]

I have been reluctant to think about us finishing top 4, just wanting to guarantee top 8, so with Rocket officially declaring us finalists and now looking at top 4, I thought I'd take a look foward at our final 9 games.

Port Adelaide - they have not been playing as bad as the results suggest, but we should have no problem beating them - WIN

Melbourne - WIN

Geelong - I think we can beat them, but they have shown some very good form the last 2 weeks. - LOSS

Carlton - Yes, they were in the 8 for a week, but Collingwood is the only team in the 8 that they have beaten - WIN

Sydney - We have really struggled in Canberra against the Swans - LOSS

Kangaroos - Johnno kicks the goal, we win. We will learn from that loss - WIN

Brisbane - We smashed them two week ago, but will find it harder in Brisbane - LOSS

Essendon - Don't rate them at all - WIN

Adelaide - Could be the game that decides top 4 or not. Have been one of our bogie teams, but managed to just get over them Round 1 and think we will beat them again. - WIN


Based on my predictions, we will win 6 of our remaining 9, giving us 70 points which will gives us a spot in the top 4.

If we win 5, we will end up on 66 points. Will that be enough.

Agree with your assessment except I think we will beat Brisbane. ( I hope we do as I booked to be there)

[Mofra]

3.5 games clear of 5th spot, we would have to be close to having it sown up now.

As long as we beat Port & Melbourne in the next 2 rounds we will be home.

[Bulldog Revolution]

I could be wrong but I think Port will be pretty tough in Darwin. I dont think it will be an easy win by any stretch of the imagination and I rate them a pretty good chance to disrupt our smooth progress

[The Pie Man]

I just took it a step futher and did a ladder predictor. Based on that we would only need to win 3 of our last 9 games to make the 4.



Geelong 80
Hawthorn 76
Sydney 70
W Bulldogs70
Adelaide 56
Bris Lions 56
Nth Melb 50
Collingwood 44

St Kilda 40
Richmond 38
Port Adel 32
Carlton 32
Fremantle 20
Essendon 20
West Coast 12
Melbourne 8

Looking at that ladder, we can probably drop one or two of the games we even expect to win and still finish top 4 - the idea now is to try to avoid 2 things - playing Geelong first up (which the above would result in) and travelling to Sydney.

I think the Swans in Canberra are gettable - yes we have struggled (I was up there last year, we were realllllly bad) but the ground should suit us should we get going. That could be another big game to avoid them finishing above us - though first thing is first, we need to keep winning now when we're expected to.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

It'd have to be a bit of a disaster not to finish Top 4 from this point. I think we'll still comfortably make it.

In the ideal world, we'd finish second with Geelong on top. Meaning we wouldn't have to play The Cats until (at least) the Grand Final providing both sides win the two straight finals. That would probably have to be our best bet.

Nevertheless, we're a strong chance to beat any side on any given occasion this year. It'll be very interesting to see how the boys play in a few weeks time v Geelong down at Skilled.