Okay I know it's very early in the season, but I just thought I'd get the ball rolling on Brownlow talk. This year I'm taking a more systematic approach to my Brownlow tips; I've developed a model which calculates the probability of a player getting 3, 2 or 1 Brownlow votes given the player's disposals tally, goals tally, Supercoach score and number of votes given to them by the two opposing coaches (AFLCA Award). From the percentiles I approximate the average of all outcomes, or in more basic terms, the most likely vote tally of the player (except its in decimal form!). I thought some might be interested in my leaderboard to date:

1 - J Brown - 6.2 votes
2 - N Riewoldt - 4.57 votes
3 - M Barlow - 4.32 votes
4 - G Ablett - 4.11 votes
5 - B McGlynn - 4.07 votes
6 - L Hodge - 3.05 votes
7 - B Harvey - 3.05 votes
8 - A Sandilands - 2.78 votes
9 - K Cornes - 2.64 votes
10 - R Griffen - 2.53 votes
11 - R O'Keefe - 2.52 votes
12 - S Gilbert - 2.49 votes
13 - L Montagna - 2.18 votes
14 - A Carrazzo - 2.14 votes
15 - D Swan - 2.12 votes

With Riewoldt injured, Barlow a first year player, McGlynn unlikely to continue his form and Hodge and Harvey known non-pollers, you'd have to think Brown and Ablett are the best bets from here, although it's extremely early. Sandilands looms as a good bet if Freo continue their form, and Montagna and Swan are again around the mark in the early parts of the season. And Griff? Well, who knows! For those interested, I have the top 5 doggie Brownlow pollers as:

1 - R Griffen - 2.53
2 - A Cooney - 1.93
3 - M Boyd - 1.63
4 - L Gilbee - 1.44
5 - M Hahn - 0.73

I can update this every 3 weeks if anyone is keen.

But for general discussion,

1) Who is your tip?
2) Who is your smokie?
3) Who will win the Doggies count?!

For me:
1) Leigh Montagna
2) Stephen Hill
3) Adam Cooney

Cheers guys.