The Run Home

[bornadog]

The run home to the finals

WESTERN BULLDOGS 12th (7-10)

R19 West Coast (ES)
R20 Bye
R21 Essendon (ES)
R22 Port Adelaide (AS)
R23 Hawthorn (MCG)
R24 Fremantle (ES)

The lowdown: Last chance saloon for the Doggies this week. Needed to win one of two games against Sydney and West Coast to remain in the race, they lost the first now they have to win the second - if they don't, it's curtains. Win and then Round 21 against Essendon is a virtual elimination final for both clubs.

MATT'S LADDER PREDICTION

1st Collingwood (21-1)
2nd Geelong (19-3)
3rd Hawthorn (17-5)
4th West Coast (16-6)
5th Carlton (14-1-9)
6th St Kilda (12-1-9)
7th Western Bulldogs (11-11)
8th Fremantle (11-11)

9th Essendon (10-1-11)
10th Sydney (10-1-11)
11th Melbourne (10-1-11)
12th North Melbourne (10-12)
13th Adelaide (8-14)
14th Richmond (6-1-15)
15th Brisbane Lions (4-18)
16th Gold Coast (3-19)
17th Port Adelaide (2-20)

ADELAIDE currently 14th (4-12)

R19 Port Adelaide (AS)
R20 Brisbane Lions (G)
R21 Geelong (AS)
R22 Gold Coast (MS)
R23 Richmond (AS)
R24 West Coast (PS)

The lowdown: New coach, new direction for the Crows? If you're Mark Bickley you would be rapt to be coming in with a run home that consists of games against the other four sides in the bottom five of the ladder. Provides a chance for him to cement a real claim for the top job next year.

BRISBANE LIONS 15th (3-14)

R19 Bye
R20 Adelaide (G)
R21 Gold Coast (G)
R22 Collingwood (MCG)
R23 West Coast (G)
R24 Sydney (SCG)


Video: Mike and Robbo
Where will your team finish? Herald Sun, 12 Jul 2011
Bucovaz to make MCG debut for Freo Perth Now, 17 Jun 2011
Maxwell back for MCG blockbuster FoxSports, 7 Apr 2011
Pies must lift against Carlton: Ball Herald Sun, 4 Apr 2011
Time for 36ers to make a point Adelaide Now, 2 Apr 2011

The lowdown: Not much more to say. Keeps battling, but eventually keeps coming up just short. Seems to be locked in to 15th spot pretty tightly. Gold Coast game in Round 21 the most interesting thing on the horizon.
CARLTON 4th (11-1-5)

R19 North Melbourne (ES)
R20 Melbourne (MCG)
R21 Fremantle (PS)
R22 Hawthorn (ES)
R23 Bye
R24 St Kilda (MCG)

The lowdown: Massive win on Saturday night renews hopes of a push for top four. An extra metre on Hayden Ballantyne's kick against West Coast on Sunday night would have made it a perfect weekend for the Blues. West Coast still has a game in hand, so Carlton simply must win their next four games if it harbours any aspirations of securing the double chance.

COLLINGWOOD (1st) (15-1)

R19 Essendon (MCG)
R20 Port Adelaide (AS)
R21 St Kilda (ES)
R22 Brisbane Lions (MCG)
R23 Fremantle (PS)
R24 Geelong (MCG)

The lowdown: We now know at least that the Round 24 game against Geelong is on a Friday night at the MCG. Not much else to report.

ESSENDON 9th (8-1-8)

R19 Collingwood (MCG)
R20 Sydney (ES)
R21 Western Bulldogs (ES)
R22 West Coast (PS)
R23 Port Adelaide (ES)
R24 Bye

The lowdown: The bubble burst on Saturday night for the Bombers, but they had their excuses with Jobe Watson, Heath Hocking and Dustin Fletcher all out, while Tayte Pears went down mid-game. Going to be tough now. Game against the Western Bulldogs in Round 21 a virtual elimination final.

FREMANTLE 7th (9-7)

R19 Hawthorn (PS)
R20 St Kilda (ES)
R21 Carlton (PS)
R22 North Melbourne (ES)
R23 Collingwood (PS)
R24 Western Bulldogs (ES)

The lowdown: Fact of the matter is the Dockers are good enough to make the finals, they showed that on Sunday night against West Coast. Fact of the matter is they remain decimated by injuries and face an interesting run home. Hawthorn at home is an interesting challenge, but one they really need to win. Carlton in Round 21 likewise. Win both of those and they're home, drop one and they'll almost certainly have to win a game in Melbourne to seal their fate.

GEELONG 2nd (15-2)

R19 Melbourne (SS)
R20 Gold Coast (SS)
R21 Adelaide (AS)
R22 Bye
R23 Sydney (SS)
R24 Collingwood (MCG)

The lowdown: See Collingwood, reverse team names.

GOLD COAST 16th (3-13)

R19 St Kilda (MS)
R20 Geelong (SS)
R21 Brisbane Lions (G)
R22 Adelaide (MS)
R23 Melbourne (MCG)
R24 Hawthorn (MS)

The lowdown: The Suns were solid against the Pies on Saturday night, but in terms of ladder positioning not much changes this week. Might give themselves every chance of beating Brisbane Lions and Adelaide in Rounds 21 and 22 in order to jump above their Queensland rivals on the ladder.

HAWTHORN 3rd (12-4)

R19 Fremantle (PS)
R20 North Melbourne (AU)
R21 Port Adelaide (MCG)
R22 Carlton (ES)
R23 Western Bulldogs (MCG)
R24 Gold Coast (MS)

The lowdown: The Hawks are another team cursed by injuries, but at least have been blessed with a kind run home. What is really impressive about the Hawks is that they continue to show they have the class to still win the games they should - as they proved by dispatching Melbourne with ease at the weekend. A loss on the road to Fremantle wouldn't surprise, but eyes are really already starting to peer towards the Round 22 clash with Carlton that will inevitably decide whether or not they can finish third.

MELBOURNE 11th (7-1-8)

R19 Geelong (SS)
R20 Carlton (MCG)
R21 West Coast (ES)
R22 Richmond (MCG)
R23 Gold Coast (MCG)
R24 Port Adelaide (AS)

The lowdown: Lost the first of its a horror run of four games. Still has matches against Geelong, Carlton and West Coast to complete the set of all teams from second to fifth on the ladder. Every week the Demons players must tell themselves that even one win from that stretch could give them every chance of snatching eighth spot given they then play three of the bottom four teams in the last three rounds.

NORTH MELBOURNE 10th (8-9)

R19 Carlton (ES)
R20 Hawthorn (AU)
R21 Bye
R22 Fremantle (ES)
R23 St Kilda (ES)
R24 Richmond (ES)

The lowdown: Did what they had to do against Brisbane Lions at the weekend, but the Roos still have a task ahead of them if they want to make September. When you consider they still have tough assignments against Carlton and Hawthorn to come, the Roos can't slip up against Fremantle, St Kilda and Richmond if they want any chance. A win against the Blues on Friday night could provide real impetus for a finals charge - but it is a long time since this team has come up trumps against a genunine top-four team.

PORT ADELAIDE 17th (2-14)

R19 Adelaide (AS)
R20 Collingwood (AS)
R21 Hawthorn (MCG)
R22 Western Bulldogs (AS)
R23 Essendon (ES)
R24 Melbourne (AS)

The lowdown: The Power players and staff would have enjoyed having last weekend off after a long, long year. The Showdown this week seemingly presents the club with a chance to get off the bottom of the ladder given it defeated Adelaide last time around. But you know what they say about clubs playing for the first time with a new coach. The Crows are sure to be fired up.

RICHMOND 13th (5-1-11)

R19 Bye
R20 West Coast (PS)
R21 Sydney (MCG)
R22 Melbourne (MCG)
R23 Adelaide (AS)
R24 North Melbourne (ES)

The lowdown: Well and truly out of the finals race now. This week's bye gives the team the chance to take stock before a tough trip to Perth next weekend. The only interests for the Tigers - aside from player development - remain finishing above Adelaide in 13th and also bettering last year's haul of six wins for the season.

ST KILDA 8th (8-1-7)

R19 Gold Coast (MS)
R20 Fremantle (ES)
R21 Collingwood (ES)
R22 Sydney (ANZ)
R23 North Melbourne (ES)
R24 Carlton (MCG)

The lowdown: The Saints are marching in. Should be able to comfortably make the finals from here, but if they slip up then Friday night's massive win could ultimately be very beneficial from a percentage point of view. Will start favourite in their next two games before tough ones against Collingwood and Sydney (away).

SYDNEY 6th (9-1-7)

R19 Bye
R20 Essendon (ES)
R21 Richmond (MCG)
R22 St Kilda (ANZ)
R23 Geelong (SS)
R24 Brisbane Lions (SCG)

The lowdown: Never thought you would say this about the Swans, but they are really starting to become difficult to read. Terrible at a wet SCG against Fremantle one week, brilliant against the Bulldogs the next. A bye now before two games that will ultimately decide their finals fate. Win both Melbourne assignments, against Essendon and Richmond, and the Swans can stamp their finals ticket, lose both and their fate rests in the hands of others.

WEST COAST 5th (11-5)

R19 Western Bulldogs (ES)
R20 Richmond (PS)
R21 Melbourne (ES)
R22 Essendon (PS)
R23 Brisbane Lions (G)
R24 Adelaide (PS)

The lowdown: Gritty win in the Derby that may eventually be remembered as the game that allowed it to finish top four. It must be remembered that the Eagles are essentially half a game ahead of Carlton given they have a game in hand. The key for the Eagles will be to win at least one of their two remaining games at Etihad Stadium, against the Western Bulldogs and Melbourne. Do that and they are favourites to secure the double chance.

[The Pie Man]

^^^^

Winning 4 of our last 5 is ambitious - but not totally impossible

St Kilda Vs Dogs elim would be interesting

[Sedat]

Winning 4 of our last 5 is ambitious - but not totally impossible

This week's match will decide our fate one way or the other. Author is clearly a Dogs supporter because he is being very generous with regard to our finals aspirations.

[comrade]

This guy has actually watched us play the last 2 weeks, hasn't he?

[Mantis]

This guy has actually watched us play the last 2 weeks, hasn't he?

Going on our form over the previous 2 weeks and taking into account our mounting injury toll I would only be confident at the moment in playing the bottom 4 sides and probably wouldn't be surprised if we lost these games... It is going to take a momumental shift in performance to win 4 of our last 5.

[LostDoggy]

Going on our form over the previous 2 weeks and taking into account our mounting injury toll I would only be confident at the moment in playing the bottom 4 sides and probably wouldn't be surprised if we lost these games... It is going to take a momumental shift in performance to win 4 of our last 5.

That is my take on the situation. We shall see the ins and outs but our injured and tired midfield will be smashed this week. We better not play Hudson on his own this week either.

[angelopetraglia]

9. WESTERN BULLDOGS (9-8, 112%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $67, Top 8: $2.70, Top 4: $51

R19: Melbourne (Marvel) L

R20: Geelong (GMHBA) L

R21: Fremantle (Marvel) W

R22: GWS (Marvel) W

R23: Hawthorn (UTAS) W

Predicted finish: 8th

The rollercoaster season down at Whitten Oval continues and the Dogs can’t be written off just yet. Marcus Bontempelli reminded everyone of his stature in the competition and the return of Bailey Smith was welcomed. If the Dogs can get on a roll and the Tigers slip up then the eighth spot could be theirs.

[GVGjr]

Melbourne are right for the picking and if we can roll them our chances for a finals spot look OK. 3 or 4 more on the percentage side would be handy

[Axe Man]

Hope it turns out better than the 2011 run home.

[bornadog]

Hope it turns out better than the 2011 run home.

Odd to have an Old thread to pull out?

[Bulldog4life]

9. WESTERN BULLDOGS (9-8, 112%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $67, Top 8: $2.70, Top 4: $51

R19: Melbourne (Marvel) L

R20: Geelong (GMHBA) L

R21: Fremantle (Marvel) W

R22: GWS (Marvel) W

R23: Hawthorn (UTAS) W

Predicted finish: 8th

The rollercoaster season down at Whitten Oval continues and the Dogs can’t be written off just yet. Marcus Bontempelli reminded everyone of his stature in the competition and the return of Bailey Smith was welcomed. If the Dogs can get on a roll and the Tigers slip up then the eighth spot could be theirs.

Onto the rooting thread for you lad. All covered there my friend. We don't want to turn it into the contact thread

[angelopetraglia]

PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS

First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Geelong Cats vs Fremantle at the MCG

First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs at the MCG

Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): Sydney Swans vs Carlton at the SCG

Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Melbourne vs Brisbane Lions at the MCG

8. WESTERN BULLDOGS (10-8, 111.9%)

Remaining games

Round 20: Geelong Cats at GMHBA Stadium

Round 21: Fremantle at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: GWS Giants at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium

Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 69%

Remaining fixture difficulty: 8th-hardest

For the first time in 2022, the Run Home numbers are predicting the Bulldogs to play finals, all thanks to their brilliant comeback win against Melbourne.

Well, not all thanks. Richmond becoming the most Richmondy Richmond that ever Richmonded, and winning just one of their last five games, deserves a lot of credit too.

But we said the Bulldogs needed to beat one top-four team to have a good shot at the finals, and they’ve done just that. They have shown they’re good enough to beat a contender, and in the process become one.

Win three of their last four - presumably the last three? - and the Dogs are virtually certain to play finals; to pass them Richmond would need to go 4-0, and St Kilda probably would too, because of their percentage.

If the Dogs ‘only’ win their easiest games left, against the Giants and Hawks, they’re still slight favourites to make it. The simplest path would be Richmond losing to Brisbane and Port Adelaide, and St Kilda losing to at least two of Geelong, Brisbane and Sydney.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.2 wins, finishing 8th

Full article https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl...d09899afdef6ce

[boydogs]

PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS

First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Geelong Cats vs Fremantle at the MCG

First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs at the MCG

Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): Sydney Swans vs Carlton at the SCG

Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Melbourne vs Brisbane Lions at the MCG[/url]

In that scenario our road to the GF would probably be Coll, Freo, Mel, Geel, all away but 3/4 in Vic anyway. That's as easy as you'll get IMO

[bornadog]

Who makes it?

[DOG GOD]

The AFL will be hoping for Carl and Rich for crowd alone.

Rich 7th (2 wins)
Carlton 8th (1 win)
Dogs 9th (1 win)
Stk 10th (0 wins)