2011 Brownlow Thread

[bornadog]

Swan biggest threat to Judd's Brownlow

CARLTON superstar Chris Judd confronts a daring three-pronged assault before he takes a historic third Brownlow Medal next Monday.

Sensational Collingwood on-ball duo Dane Swan and Scott Pendlebury, as well as Judd’s gifted young teammate Marc Murphy are all poised to make a genuine tilt at winning their first medal after sensational 2011 seasons.

Judd, 28, is clear favourite to add a third medal to last year’s run-away victory as well as his 2004 award and his 2011 season performances stack up on another win for the ball-winning and clearances sensation.

But top online bookmakers sportsbet.com.au might have been a little hasty to pay out more than $300,000 on Carlton’s gun on-baller after Round 20 in early August.

Since Judd’s payout, punters have heavily backed Sydney champion and another dual winner Adam Goodes with his stunning run home and a distinct prospect of four or five best-on-ground efforts over his last six outings.

Goodes, 31, was awesome in a late Swans surge of three straight wins in Rounds 22 to 24 and was instrumental in a vital victory over the Western Bulldogs in Round 18 before a bye the next week.

But it all seems a little late for the incomparable Goodes does not seem to have had sufficiently good enough start to have vital early votes to be within reach of Judd, Swan, Pendlebury and Murphy late into the count.

The only other possible challenge could come from constantly big possession-winning Bulldogs first-year captain Matthew Boyd, who will poll highly despite his side’s poor season overall and Hawthorn ball-magnet Sam Mitchell, who is ineligible.

It all points to Judd and three prime contenders.

Judd has probably had an even more sensational 2011 than he did last year when the mercurial Blue won the medal with 30 votes polled from 12 games.

The Blues superstar polled eight best-on-ground votes last year, including a first ever five consecutive threes in his delayed start to the season on the back of serving a three-game suspension hanging over from the 2009 elimination final in Brisbane.

Judd has had nine games this season with 30 or more possessions and booted 14 goals, as opposed to last season’s win when he only needed six outings with over 30-plus touches to take his precious medal home.

What the amazing Judd does with the football as he surges from congestion with a swivel of his hips and explosive pace adds significantly to his appeal with AFL umpires who award the vital votes.

Ironically, he could suffer from a slight guilt complex among the whistle blowers who hand out votes, as Swan was probably harshly handled last season.

He was clear favourite to win last year’s highest player’s honour and got eight second vote rankings among his 24 votes, to finish third behind Judd and then 2009 winner Gary Ablett.

Swan, 27, has maintained a staggering consistency through 2011 to remarkably be in an almost identical position to rival Judd for the game’s most prestigious personal honour heading into this season’s count.

The dashing Pies on-baller has had another 15 games from his 21 outings in 2011 with 30 or more possessions, the same as last year from Swan’s 22 matches.

Swan was especially productive on the back of his highly publicised mid-season sabbatical to Arizona when the Pies magician had 10 straight 30-plus efforts and stormed back into medal winning calculations.

Swan also booted 30 goals among his stunning sequence of performances that makes him clearly Judd’s most glaring rival to take the 2011 Brownlow.

Equally, it’s teammates that also loom as the big challengers to Judd taking and third Brownlow and Swan his first.

Pendlebury and Murphy would be more than worthy winners this year.

They have each had 30 or more possessions in 12 of their 22 home-and-away games.

Pendlebury, 23 and Murphy, 24, will poll consistently and should collect votes in as many as 12 or even up to 14 games to finish with tallies in the high 20’s.

Judd’s chances of winning his third award probably hinge on whether umpires offer the stoppages genius another succession of vital three votes or whether he gets the two’s and singles when Murphy is awarded the match top rankings.

Swan should start explosively with around three or four top vote collects in the opening month and also storm home with a sequence of three’s and two’s over the last six to eight weeks.

The ball-winning marvel with insatiable running powers should also poll in around a dozen games with his winning prospects lingering on whether Swan gets top votes often enough when he and Pendlebury have been equally outstanding in the same outings.

Kim HAGDORN’S estimated Brownlow finish for 2011.

Dane SWAN (Collingwood) 31 votes
Scott PENDLEBURY (Collingwood) 27 votes
Matthew BOYD (Bulldogs) 27 votes
Sam MITCHELL (Hawthorn) 25 votes
Chris JUDD (Carlton) 24 votes
Marc MURPHY (Carlton) 23 votes
Brent MOLONEY (Melbourne) 17 votes
Scott THOMPSON (Adelaide) 17 votes
Gary ABLETT (Gold Coast) 16 votes
James KELLY (Geelong) 16 votes

[bornadog]

I think Boyd will poll the best from the Doggies although Griffen and Murphy should also get votes. Griffen has not polled well in the brownlow over the years.

Overall I hope Judd doesn't win, can't stand the bloke.

[1eyedog]

Mitchell for mine, which would be a shame considering he is ineligible. Swan is an inconsistent poller and he and Pendlebury may just cut each others lunch, same with Judd and Murphy. Hawthorn have won enough games and Mitchell has been sensational with few mids taking votes off him.

[The Underdog]

I'll be supporting ABJ - "Anyone But Judd"

[Daughter of the West]

I'll be supporting ABJ - "Anyone But Judd"

I'm jumping on that bandwagon!

There is a colleague in the next corral of desks over from me who is a loud, LOUD, LOUD Carlton supporter (but they've been amazingly quiet this week, tee hee! ) who would not shut up if Judd won the Brownlow. I'm hoping for another week of peace!

[OLD SCRAGGer]

I'LL GO FOR:

ADAM GOODES
MATT BOYD
MARK MURPHY

3 way tie

[Maddog37]

I'm jumping on that bandwagon!

There is a colleague in the next corral of desks over from me who is a loud, LOUD, LOUD Carlton supporter (but they've been amazingly quiet this week, tee hee! ) who would not shut up if Judd won the Brownlow. I'm hoping for another week of peace!

Just saunter over and comment how good the all Australian side looks and see what reponse you get

[bornadog]

I'LL GO FOR:

ADAM GOODES
MATT BOYD
MARK MURPHY

3 way tie

Goodes has had a very good year and wouldn't be surprised if he gets up.

[Maddog37]

Eagles have won quite a few games but noone from there is really being talked up. Any chance Priddis will sneak a few?

[Greystache]

I'll be supporting ABJ - "Anyone But Judd"

+1

Cannot stand him, or the rediculously over the top attention he gets. Has there ever been more attention given to an inside mid, with average pace, poor disposal, and no ability to kick goals?

The way he is lauded now as "the clearance king" in the absence of any other elite attribute makes me want to vomit, he didn't even lead the league in the category FFS!

[The Underdog]

+1

Cannot stand him, or the rediculously over the top attention he gets. Has there ever been more attention given to an inside mid, with average pace, poor disposal, and no ability to kick goals?

The way he is lauded now as "the clearance king" in the absence of any other elite attribute makes me want to vomit, he didn't even lead the league in the category FFS!

I'm just not sure why he's such an out and out favourite for the medal. He's in no way been the clear best player in the league (not that that usually matters with the Brownlow). He's getting by on reputation and the adoration of the Carlton fans. Not saying he's not a good player just not that much better than quite a few others. All things being equal, Ablett was easily better than Judd this year, but won't get votes because his team got slaughtered most weeks.

[bornadog]

+1

Cannot stand him, or the rediculously over the top attention he gets. Has there ever been more attention given to an inside mid, with average pace, poor disposal, and no ability to kick goals?

The way he is lauded now as "the clearance king" in the absence of any other elite attribute makes me want to vomit, he didn't even lead the league in the category FFS!

I'm just not sure why he's such an out and out favourite for the medal. He's in no way been the clear best player in the league (not that that usually matters with the Brownlow). He's getting by on reputation and the adoration of the Carlton fans. Not saying he's not a good player just not that much better than quite a few others. All things being equal, Ablett was easily better than Judd this year, but won't get votes because his team got slaughtered most weeks.

A media darling.

[LostDoggy]

Gablett may well sneak it you know. The umps will be giving him votes anyway even in a losing side (they can't help noticing him based simply on reputation and will cut him some slack for being in GC), and no one else in GC is going to take votes off him.

I'm guessing he'll poll at LEAST 15 votes.

[LostDoggy]

Eagles have won quite a few games but noone from there is really being talked up. Any chance Priddis will sneak a few?

I like your thinking.

[bulldogsman]

Scott Pendlebury for mine.

I honestly thought Murphy had a better season then Judd, but what would I know.