The Bevo Era & Percentage

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Percentage under Bevo:

Year: percentage (for/against)

2015: 115.12 (2,101/1,825)
2016: 115.41 (1,857/1,609)
2017: 97.07 (1,857/1,913)
2018: 77.32 (1,575/2,037)
2019: 107.24 (1,941/1,810)
2020: 106.67 (** C19: 1,103/1,034)
2021: 132.84 (1,994/1,501) - missed top four on percentage
2022: 108.89 (1,973/1,812)
*2023: 103.91 (1,301/1,252)

Average: 106%

Scores For: Settled around 1,900 per season - 86 points per game

Scores Against:

2016 & 2021: very low by our historical Bevo average - circa 70 points per game
Rest: around the 1,850 mark - 84 points per game (20% higher than 2016 & 2021)
2023: averaging 78.25 per game - well over 10% above 2016 & 2021 levels - about 7% better than ?rest? average


This is a Rorshack Test.


For me it says that our percentage under Bevo - considering the years of finals - is:

A) very, very poor. Not getting around it.
B) consistent of our attack/scores for - be it Stringer & Toyd or Bruce & Naughton. Same mids. Not much difference. We?ve never really grown our ability to pile on the points
C) despite paying handsomely for Lobb, our scores for has gone backwards!
D) 2016 & 2021 not by coincidence have much better defensive years. But it can?t be put down just to the players. In 2016 it was Dale, Hamling & Wood. In 2021 it was Keath, Cordy & an emerging Gardner. Same mids. Did the ruck change our defence from the midfield. In 2016 there was Roughead, Campbell, Minson & Toyd. In 2021 Stef Martin, English, Sweet and Young/Bruce. Years with a bonafide first ruck supported by a second ruck and depth.
E) our defence seems to be a litmus test of how we will fare. While this year is better than the Bevo average, it?s nowhere near the levels of 2016 & 2021.
F) the mids have largely been the same over the period (Bont, Jack, Libba, Hunter et al). Is their ability to defend or not, directly tractable to our lower scores against

It also highlights, our poor goal kicking over this period has killed our percentage. If that was fixed up you could add 10 points a game at least. But we haven?t fixed it. Bruce gave it a bump (still under 2015 levels) for just a year and Lobb has seen it go backwards. So personnel hasn?t and won?t fix it on its own. Increasing our scores got will come down to coaching, skill coaching and game planning. So let’s stop chasing external players when we can see it’s down to the coach/es.

It also highlights Bevo?s no tagging philosophy might not be brilliant. Our best years are our best team defence years. Would it not be better to help our defenders by stopping mids and run ons? If strong defence gets us to Grand Finals, then play to our strengths?

It seems to me, our mids need to raise their defence, our forwards need to get accurate, our defence needs to keep improving - all things many already know. It suggests a more traditional ruck set up is at least coincide to more successful seasons. With Bevo here for a few years, it seems defence/scores against is the key metric. So I think personnel like a Barass and a Duryea replacement are very important to success going ahead.

So the club thinks it?s in the window. It might be. If it reviews the ruck and tagger roles, kicks straight, stops oppo gun mids/run ons and bring in defensive cover in the trade period. The percentage data under Bevo whilst generally poor, does support the argument some tweaks could force us into the window. But I don?t think we do anything with the ruck, we won?t tag, we won?t stop run ons and we won?t kick straight. BUT. If we could, then the club maybe right, the window is open.

What do you see?