Bookies write off Kangas again in 2013

[Ghost Dog]

http://www.sportal.com.au/bz-opinion...e-again-208604


Kangaroos written off once again
13/11/2012 10:47 AM
Paul Gough, Betting Editor
They have made it a habit of defying the doomsayers over the past 20 years and it seems punters are again falling for the trap of writing off North Melbourne ahead of the 2013 AFL season.

The Kangaroos might be one of the AFL's poor relations when it comes to financial strength but their on-field performance can hardly be questioned considering the club has reached the finals in 13 of the past 20 seasons, including the premierships of 1996 and 1999 and a preliminary final appearance as recently as 2007.

Last season the Kangaroos again performed above expectations to win 14 of their 22 home and away games to finish in eighth spot before copping a 96-point hiding from the West Coast Eagles in Perth in the first week of the finals.


And it seems the disappointing nature of North's exit from the finals last season combined with their tough draw for season 2013 has already seen the Roos all but written off by the punters as a finals contender for next season.

Incredibly North are only on the 12th line of betting when it comes to the market on just which clubs will finish in the top eight next season, the Roos only ahead of the six clubs that filled the bottom six places last season in Brisbane and easybeats Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Gold Coast and GWS.

The Kangaroos are as much as $2.50 with TAB Sportsbet and even better odds at $2.54 with Betfair just to make the top eight next season despite finishing two games clear of ninth-placed St Kilda in 2012.

But not only are the Saints at shorter odds to make the top eight next season than the Kangaroos but 10-placed Carlton, 11th placed Essendon and even 12th placed Richmond - who have only made the finals twice in the past 30 years - are more favoured by the bookies.

The Blues, under new coach Mick Malthouse, are the side considered most likely to take North's spot in the top eight next season, with Carlton as short as $1.35 to make the eight at TAB Sportsbet and $1.45 at Betfair - where they are also on the fifth line of premiership betting at $11 behind Hawthorn at $4.60, Sydney at $7.40, West Coast at $8.60 and Collingwood at $10.

North however have copped a hard draw for season 2013 with return matches against Hawthorn, Adelaide, Collingwood and Geelong as well as the equal highest number of six-day breaks between matches.

But for a club which has proven time and time again it can overcome the odds stacked against them, the Kangaroos seem great early value in top eight betting.

This is the case when comparing them to Richmond - who won four less games than North last year - who are at just $1.90 at TAB Sportsbet and $1.92 with Betfair and Essendon - which lost 10 of their last 13 games in season 2012 - at $2.26 with Betfair to play finals next year.

[GVGjr]

I think North are on the verge of jumping up the ladder.

[Ghost Dog]

Very tough draw. Have to admire them as a club. We have been really wishy washy on interstate companion forays to Tassie and ACT etc. They have taken the bit and gone for it.

[Sedat]

I think North are on the verge of jumping up the ladder.

Not so sure about that - they had a sensational draw this season and had no injuries whatsoever. They finished 8th and lost their only final by 16 goals. They'll need significnt internal improvement to climb up the ladder another couple of spots - it's not beyond them but if they lose a Goldstein or Petrie for extended periods they are in trouble in 2013. I can see them take a step back next season and then surge forward in 2014 when their core of mids reach 60-100 games.

[The Pie Man]

Not so sure about that - they had a sensational draw this season and had no injuries whatsoever. They finished 8th and lost their only final by 16 goals. They'll need significnt internal improvement to climb up the ladder another couple of spots - it's not beyond them but if they lose a Goldstein or Petrie for extended periods they are in trouble in 2013. I can see them take a step back next season and then surge forward in 2014 when their core of mids reach 60-100 games.

Their 2012 reminded me of our 2006 - they'll want to avoid our 2007.

When the contested heat was turned up, they couldn't cope. They're not without hard ball winners though, and I'm sure they'll be embarassed by their last outing at Subi, so will be interesting to see if they tinker with their game style next season.

[Sedat]

Their 2012 reminded me of our 2006 - they'll want to avoid our 2007.

We had multiple serious knee injuries in 2006 (5 ACL's from memory) and we had a tough draw. We also won a final in 2006. I get the comparisons but I think our 2006 was quite a bit better season than Norf's 2012.

[Ghost Dog]

I felt they became a bit complacent. They had some fine players, really buffed blokes and we kicked their as%es earlier in the year. Bunch of gym jocks being whipped by a bunch of kids. What was that all about? Fun to watch though.

[GVGjr]

Not so sure about that - they had a sensational draw this season and had no injuries whatsoever. They finished 8th and lost their only final by 16 goals. They'll need significnt internal improvement to climb up the ladder another couple of spots - it's not beyond them but if they lose a Goldstein or Petrie for extended periods they are in trouble in 2013. I can see them take a step back next season and then surge forward in 2014 when their core of mids reach 60-100 games.

Most clubs fall away with injuries to key players but I think North have been adding good players for as few years now and if things go their way might surprise.

You might be right though.