Trade Dunkley

[Grantysghost]

GG, if Brisbane thought we wouldn’t accept their offer and expected some “massaging” why did they then go and trade away pick 15 which is a key part of the proposed trade?

My guess is their priority has always been the F/S picks and GWS made them an offer and they took it.

I guess it's a dynamic situation at times.

I think that was an interesting move, I would've thought 15 had to be part of the Dunkley deal but clearly they're backing themselves to get it done and why not with their track record.

[Topdog]

My guess is their priority has always been the F/S picks and GWS made them an offer and they took it.

I guess it's a dynamic situation at times.

I think that was an interesting move, I would've thought 15 had to be part of the Dunkley deal but clearly they're backing themselves to get it done and why not with their track record.

Yeah they have a good track record of getting it done and as a result I'm pretty relaxed about the whole thing.

Their track record is also of doing fair trades

[bulldogtragic]

A deep dive on the opposition strategy and landscape.

They have EIGHT picks with decent draft points (not including Pick 73 which has only 9 Points). Remembering they can only use the Draft Points for the amount of picks commensurate to the amount if list spots they have open. A ban on 'hidden points' was in several years ago, but temporarily lifted for us with Marra. Assuming the AFEL don't waiver, Brisbane need EIGHT spots as a starting position.

So they need 8 List Spots opened up to take all the draft points in. Assuming they move a pick for Gunston this year. Then they need SEVEN vacancies to use all the 7 Draft Picks or lose the draft points.

They have let go Berry, McStay, Robinson and Smith off their primary list. That's THREE more vacancies needed to use all the picks. (Cox and Uosis are rookies)

But they've brought in TWO player potentially, in Gunston & Dunkley. So they only have TWO 'net' vacancies opened up from their Primary List. So they are short FIVE list spots to use all picks/points.

They trade out Mathieson. They are now FOUR spots short of their Draft Picks/Points.

They have enough capital now for Gunston, Ashcroft & Fletcher so trading out Pick 21 with the most amount of Draft Points is a gamble for them. So for the sake of discussion, I will assume the most they could do is upgrade our 30 for 21, but not give the second rounder this year up altogether.

So they need to move on FOUR more players, or perhaps cut three more and trade another one. They need to cut their list further, or, it could make sense to include a player into a possible Dunkley trade. This option, means Brisbane Lions secure all of Dunkley, Gunston, Ashcroft & Fletcher. While they only trade out their Future First. Meaning for 2023 they still have 2 x Future Seconds, 1 Future Third and 2 x Future Fourths. So their 2023 Draft Hand is also very strong. That's an outstanding return for Brisbane and get all four targets this year, and still have 5 picks next year in the bag already without anything for Mathieson included.

So from an overall perspective by adding a player of first round value to the trade, they free up another list spot to help bring in all their good draft point picks, secure Dunkley, Gunston, Ashcroft & Fletcher and maintain 5+ Picks in the 2023 National Draft.

So you can make a case that Brisbane should look at including a player to trade us (of first round value) for numerous reasons, unless they are really going to cut deep into their list. I can only really see Rayner or potentially at a push Lohmann as potential candidates.

If I were Brisbane, i'd look at a player that is surplus to need and at a high-ish current value. Would Ballarat kid Lohmann taken at the end of the First Round last year suffice us if we can't get Rayner? Perhaps with a draft point trade of 30 & 39 for 21 & 55 (or 48 if not used on Guhnston). Then trading Pick 21 to Freo for Lobb with a Future Third coming back.

The end result of this period possibly:

2022: Pick 11, 48 or 55, 69 (or a rookie upgrade from Scott, McNeil, Sweet or Roarke most likely) - & - Jones (Mature KPD), Lobb (Mature KPF/2nd Ruck), Lohmann (small forward in his second year), with sizeable salary cap opened up, and one rookie draft pick or two if Parker isn't re-contracted - OUT: Dunkley, Cordy, and four others off the primary list with four being uncontracted in Schache, Wallis, Martin & Butler. An extra might be Hunter if that eventuates.

2023: First Round x 2, Second Round, Third Round x 2, Fourth Round


To me, Brisbane 'win', Freo 'win', and we secure a mature KPF/2nd Ruck (who kicked 36 goals this year), Small Forward taken from last years First Round (from Ballarat and a future ambassador to be the 'blonde twins' with Weightman) and another 2023 First Rounder as compensation for Dunkley. All assuming we can't use money to pry Rayner out. While having some money to a raid a Free Agent in 2023.

Does this work for you?


Math as it stands:

Lions Current Draft Points: 878, 543, 522, 502, 465, 302, 207, 194 = 3,613 Points

Say Gunston trade for Pick 48, meaning subtract 302 DPS:

3,311 - Draft Points
-2,400 - Ashcroft
------
911 - Draft Points - Fletcher as high as Pick 14 without deficit

[Scraggers]

Brisbane can also go into trade deficit can’t they?

[GVGjr]

Brisbane can also go into trade deficit can’t they?

Yes they can.

[MrMahatma]

Saw Lohmann live on his debut against Pies I think it was. Lively player. Looks a goer. Including him would be fine with me.

I mean, if we rated Lohmann as a first rounder last year, and they then offered us him and 2023 first rounder, that’s the 2 first rounders. Doesn’t necessarily help us with Lobb.

[bornadog]

A deep dive on the opposition strategy and landscape.

They have EIGHT picks with decent draft points (not including Pick 73 which has only 9 Points). Remembering they can only use the Draft Points for the amount of picks commensurate to the amount if list spots they have open. A ban on 'hidden points' was in several years ago, but temporarily lifted for us with Marra. Assuming the AFEL don't waiver, Brisbane need EIGHT spots as a starting position.

So they need 8 List Spots opened up to take all the draft points in. Assuming they move a pick for Gunston this year. Then they need SEVEN vacancies to use all the 7 Draft Picks or lose the draft points.

They have let go Berry, McStay, Robinson and Smith off their primary list. That's THREE more vacancies needed to use all the picks. (Cox and Uosis are rookies)

But they've brought in TWO player potentially, in Gunston & Dunkley. So they only have TWO 'net' vacancies opened up from their Primary List. So they are short FIVE list spots to use all picks/points.

They trade out Mathieson. They are now FOUR spots short of their Draft Picks/Points.

They have enough capital now for Gunston, Ashcroft & Fletcher so trading out Pick 21 with the most amount of Draft Points is a gamble for them. So for the sake of discussion, I will assume the most they could do is upgrade our 30 for 21, but not give the second rounder this year up altogether.

So they need to move on FOUR more players, or perhaps cut three more and trade another one. They need to cut their list further, or, it could make sense to include a player into a possible Dunkley trade. This option, means Brisbane Lions secure all of Dunkley, Gunston, Ashcroft & Fletcher. While they only trade out their Future First. Meaning for 2023 they still have 2 x Future Seconds, 1 Future Third and 2 x Future Fourths. So their 2023 Draft Hand is also very strong. That's an outstanding return for Brisbane and get all four targets this year, and still have 5 picks next year in the bag already without anything for Mathieson included.

So from an overall perspective by adding a player of first round value to the trade, they free up another list spot to help bring in all their good draft point picks, secure Dunkley, Gunston, Ashcroft & Fletcher and maintain 5+ Picks in the 2023 National Draft.

So you can make a case that Brisbane should look at including a player to trade us (of first round value) for numerous reasons, unless they are really going to cut deep into their list. I can only really see Rayner or potentially at a push Lohmann as potential candidates.

If I were Brisbane, i'd look at a player that is surplus to need and at a high-ish current value. Would Ballarat kid Lohmann taken at the end of the First Round last year suffice us if we can't get Rayner? Perhaps with a draft point trade of 30 & 39 for 21 & 55 (or 48 if not used on Guhnston). Then trading Pick 21 to Freo for Lobb with a Future Third coming back.

The end result of this period possibly:

2022: Pick 11, 48 or 55, 69 (or a rookie upgrade from Scott, McNeil, Sweet or Roarke most likely) - & - Jones (Mature KPD), Lobb (Mature KPF/2nd Ruck), Lohmann (small forward in his second year), with sizeable salary cap opened up, and one rookie draft pick or two if Parker isn't re-contracted - OUT: Dunkley, Cordy, and four others off the primary list with three being uncontracted in Schache, Wallis & Butler. The extra might be Hunter if that eventuates.

2023: First Round x 2, Second Round, Third Round x 2, Fourth Round


To me, Brisbane 'win', Freo 'win', and we secure a mature KPF/2nd Ruck (who kicked 36 goals this year), Small Forward taken from last years First Round (from Ballarat and a future ambassador to be the 'blonde twins' with Weightman) and another 2023 First Rounder as compensation for Dunkley. All assuming we can't use money to pry Rayner out. While having some money to a raid a Free Agent in 2023.

Does this work for you?


Math as it stands:

Lions Current Draft Points: 878, 543, 522, 502, 465, 302, 207, 194 = 3,613 Points

Say Gunston trade for Pick 48, meaning subtract 302 DPS:

3,311 - Draft Points
-2,400 - Ashcroft
------
911 - Draft Points - Fletcher as high as Pick 14 without deficit

Wow great analysis. They have to draft three players in - Ashcroft, Fletcher and one other.

[bulldogtragic]

Saw Lohmann live on his debut against Pies I think it was. Lively player. Looks a goer. Including him would be fine with me.

I mean, if we rated Lohmann as a first rounder last year, and they then offered us him and 2023 first rounder, that’s the 2 first rounders. Doesn’t necessarily help us with Lobb.

A draft points trade. Our 30 & 39 (1,075 DPs) to Brisbane for their 21 & 48/55 (1,180/1,085). Doesn't hurt Brisbane really, even at Pick 48 just 105 DPs (= Pick 64), at Pick 55 they actually gain 10 Points). If they wanted our Pick 69 and we weren't going to use it on a 'live pick' but a rookie upgrade (which we can do with a later pick), they can have those 90 DPs and it breaks everything even on Pick 48, and gives them a net gain on Pick 55. They should do it out of 'good will' seeing that it doesn't hurt /actually helps them and helps us a smidge.

[bulldogtragic]

Wow great analysis. They have to draft three players in - Ashcroft, Fletcher and one other.

Without knowing, I suspect they will upgrade some rookies. They will need to have 7 spots open. At least 3 drafted as you say. They might have some 'free hit' academy types later on in this draft. To reduce the need for too many late speculative picks, some rookie upgrades will reduce that eventuality.


The question with a Future First & Player Trade idea is this:

What gets Brisbane closer to the GF/Premiership next year?

Dunkley or, Future First & Rayner/Lohmann etc.

[Happy Days]

Saw Lohmann live on his debut against Pies I think it was. Lively player. Looks a goer. Including him would be fine with me.

I mean, if we rated Lohmann as a first rounder last year, and they then offered us him and 2023 first rounder, that’s the 2 first rounders. Doesn’t necessarily help us with Lobb.

Do we rate him higher than Steve Tiller though?

[bulldogtragic]

Saw Lohmann live on his debut against Pies I think it was. Lively player. Looks a goer. Including him would be fine with me.

I mean, if we rated Lohmann as a first rounder last year, and they then offered us him and 2023 first rounder, that’s the 2 first rounders. Doesn’t necessarily help us with Lobb.

Being that he played for (effectively) our academy team you’d think our scouts and club would have a really good read on him and if it’s something we would want. One way or the other.

[jeemak]

Do we rate him higher than Steve Tiller though?

How we ever let Tiller go is beyond me.

[Scorlibo]

Being that he played for (effectively) our academy team you’d think our scouts and club would have a really good read on him and if it’s something we would want. One way or the other.

Just looking back at some of the pre-draft ratings last year, looks like he was a bit of a bolter, and ended up going pick 20. So I'd guess that it would be unlikely that we rated him higher than the pick 20 where he was taken, and therefore wouldn't rate him more highly than the pick 21 that the Lions hold now.

[Bulldog4life]

Sam Landsberger:

Respected recruiters reckon Dunkley is worth a First and Second Rounder.

GCS won’t try a last minute attempt to trade for him

Means little to me. A first rounder can be 1 or 18. Should be an early, middle or late first rounder. Same with second rounder. Huge difference.

[jeemak]

Means little to me. A first rounder can be 1 or 18. Should be an early, middle or late first rounder. Same with second rounder. Huge difference.

Perhaps only respected recruiters from Brisbane and Essendon were asked.