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Re: The official 2017 TandT Who to Root for Thread
Tried to do a realistic ladder predictor, with a few variations on our results
If we win our remaining games, I have us finishing 6th and hosting Port in week 1 of finals, after having just beaten them in round 22, then playing the loser of Geelong v GWS away, the winner of Adelaide v Melbourne away and the winner of Geelong v GWS in the GF, assuming they win their home prelim
If we lose to Port but win the rest, we finish 8th and play Melbourne away, the loser of Adelaide v GWS away, the winner of Geelong v Port away and the winner of Adelaide v GWS in the GF, assuming they win their home prelim
If we lose to GWS, or Hawthorn, or Brisbane but win the rest, we finish 8th and play Richmond away, the loser of Adelaide v Melbourne away, the winner of Geelong v GWS away and the winner of Adelaide v Melbourne in the GF, assuming they win their home prelim
If we lose to Essendon but win the rest, or if we lose more than 1 game regardless of the opposition, we finish 9th or lower. We get in on 13 wins with one more loss, unless that loss is against Essendon this week
Honestly, I could see us winning our remaining games, but an interstate finals win might be too much for us this year. Our best chance could be losing to GWS/Hawthorn/Brisbane and playing Richmond, Melbourne, Geelong, Adelaide in the finals, all in Victoria
If you kicked five goals and Tom Boyd kicked five goals, Tom Boyd kicked more goals than you.
Formerly gogriff
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Re: The official 2017 TandT Who to Root for Thread
Originally Posted by
boydogs
Tried to do a realistic ladder predictor, with a few variations on our results
If we win our remaining games, I have us finishing 6th and hosting Port in week 1 of finals, after having just beaten them in round 22, then playing the loser of Geelong v GWS away, the winner of Adelaide v Melbourne away and the winner of Geelong v GWS in the GF, assuming they win their home prelim
If we lose to Port but win the rest, we finish 8th and play Melbourne away, the loser of Adelaide v GWS away, the winner of Geelong v Port away and the winner of Adelaide v GWS in the GF, assuming they win their home prelim
If we lose to GWS, or Hawthorn, or Brisbane but win the rest, we finish 8th and play Richmond away, the loser of Adelaide v Melbourne away, the winner of Geelong v GWS away and the winner of Adelaide v Melbourne in the GF, assuming they win their home prelim
If we lose to Essendon but win the rest, or if we lose more than 1 game regardless of the opposition, we finish 9th or lower. We get in on 13 wins with one more loss, unless that loss is against Essendon this week
Honestly, I could see us winning our remaining games, but an interstate finals win might be too much for us this year. Our best chance could be losing to GWS/Hawthorn/Brisbane and playing Richmond, Melbourne, Geelong, Adelaide in the finals, all in Victoria
If you made the finals this year but avoided the interstate travel, you'd be very happy, no matter what your eventual ladder position was.
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Re: The official 2017 TandT Who to Root for Thread
The reality is that making the 8 will be an achievement in itself.
The side we played against the Suns was missing 8 from our Premiership team - 1 gone to Freo, 3 out injured and 4 omitted due to form.
We have been cruelled by injury again this year, had a number of players undergo surgery during the off season and a number unable to make it to the barrier for round 1.
Then we lose Crameri for the year and Cloke, who we had big hopes for, a few games in.
It has been a tough year - au unchanged line up has been a rarity. We've also had three players, Bob, Wally and BJR coming back from major, major surgery.
It's been a really challenging year. Throw in a rule change that has affected us more than any other team, then it's not surprising to find us with our backs to the wall.
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Re: The official 2017 TandT Who to Root for Thread
Oddly, and unhelpfully - as if the stakes weren't high enough vs the dopers this week - every team above us is drawn against teams below us this round, ie: even in a season of anything goes, you'd suggest they're all 'on paper' wins.
If we can't engineer a win on Sunday and nature takes its course it's going to be very, very tough from here.
BORDERLINE FLYING
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Re: The official 2017 TandT Who to Root for Thread
Originally Posted by
Rocket Science
Oddly, and unhelpfully - as if the stakes weren't high enough vs the dopers this week - every team above us is drawn against teams below us this round, ie: even in a season of anything goes, you'd suggest they're all 'on paper' wins.
If we can't engineer a win on Sunday and nature takes its course it's going to be very, very tough from here.
If we could ask the football gods to take care of us in one round from here on in, this would be the round to ask for. As you say, every team from 1-9 is playing a team from 10-18. I am too tired to bother to work out the odds of this actually occurring, but I would say it wouldn't roll around very often.
For the record it is:
Collingwood (13th) versus Adelaide (1st)
Carlton (16th) versus Geelong (2nd)
GWS (3rd) versus Freo (14th)
GC (15th) versus Richmond (4th)
Port (5th) versus Saints (11th)
Hawks (12th) versus Sydney (6th)
North (17th) versus Melbourne (7th)
WB (10th) versus Essendon (8th)
The great thing is 7 out of 9 of the lower ranked teams are at home and the only teams with long odds would probably be Freo and Brisbane (who have both shown that their best is enough nuisance value to stay in the game and if they are able to hang around they grow in confidence and are very dangerous). Worth also noting that WC and GWS have both also hit a very flat spot, are under extreme pressure in the media, and are vulnerable.
North might be 17th but they are playing down in Tassie (where they destroyed the Crows) and even if they play like they did last week they are a very good chance of knocking off the very flakey Demons.
Hawks and Collingwood are coming off a good win and Hawthorn, in particular, would be extremely confident going into the Swans game at home (especially after knocking them off earlier in the year).
GC get a few key players back and are Richmond's bogey side. Additionally, if history has taught us nothing else it is that Richmond do love to struggle the week after having a great win.
Port v Saints game is a bit of a win-win really. If Port win it almost ends the Saints season, if Port lose they fall back to the teams scrapping for a position in the 8 and consequently our matchup with them probably means we will be controlling our own destiny.
If we can do our part by beating Essendon, we could be one win and 6% or so out of the top 4. How's that for glass half full?
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Re: The official 2017 TandT Who to Root for Thread
Originally Posted by
The Adelaide Connection
How's that for glass half full?
You forgot that North Melbourne have a 16 game winning streak against Melbourne
If you kicked five goals and Tom Boyd kicked five goals, Tom Boyd kicked more goals than you.
Formerly gogriff
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Re: The official 2017 TandT Who to Root for Thread
Originally Posted by
boydogs
You forgot that North Melbourne have a 16 game winning streak against Melbourne
The planets are aligning...
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Re: The official 2017 TandT Who to Root for Thread
I heard this morning that Champion Data rate this game as the most important game of the remaining 45 games in terms of shaping the 8.
For those who were always the underdogs and wore it as a badge of honour.
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Re: The official 2017 TandT Who to Root for Thread
Originally Posted by
aker39
I heard this morning that Champion Data rate this game as the most important game of the remaining 45 games in terms of shaping the 8.
FFC: Established 1883
Premierships: AFL 1954, 2016 VFA - 1898,99,1900, 1908, 1913, 1919-20, 1923-24, VFL: 2014, 2016 . Champions of Victoria 1924. AFLW - 2018.
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Re: The official 2017 TandT Who to Root for Thread
Originally Posted by
aker39
I heard this morning that Champion Data rate this game as the most important game of the remaining 45 games in terms of shaping the 8.
We could consider ourselves unlucky if we lose to Essendon then win our remaining games to finish on 13 wins but miss the 8, but if we are a genuine contender then we should be beating middle of the road teams in Melbourne at this time of year
If you kicked five goals and Tom Boyd kicked five goals, Tom Boyd kicked more goals than you.
Formerly gogriff
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Re: The official 2017 TandT Who to Root for Thread
Originally Posted by
boydogs
You forgot that North Melbourne have a 16 game winning streak against Melbourne
Yeah, but you know what they say.....NOBODY beats Melbourne SEVENTEEN times in a row.
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Re: The official 2017 TandT Who to Root for Thread
Originally Posted by
Ozza
Yeah, but you know what they say.....NOBODY beats Melbourne SEVENTEEN times in a row.
Thanks, Vitas. (Best ever sporting quote in tn history of the world)
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Re: The official 2017 TandT Who to Root for Thread
Originally Posted by
Ozza
Yeah, but you know what they say.....NOBODY beats Melbourne SEVENTEEN times in a row.
It's never happened yet.
There are kids well into their school years who haven't lived through Melbourme beating North.
They say Burt Lancaster has one, but I don't believe them.
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Re: The official 2017 TandT Who to Root for Thread
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Re: The official 2017 TandT Who to Root for Thread
Originally Posted by
Ozza
Yeah, but you know what they say.....NOBODY beats Melbourne SEVENTEEN times in a row.
Maybe 18
FFC: Established 1883
Premierships: AFL 1954, 2016 VFA - 1898,99,1900, 1908, 1913, 1919-20, 1923-24, VFL: 2014, 2016 . Champions of Victoria 1924. AFLW - 2018.