Always Right Match Committee Round 12 v Geelong

[Critter]

In last year's game Witts won the HO count against Sweet 55 to 27, but we won the clearances 49-36. Rowell had 6 touches and 1 clearance.

And Sweet had 6 tackles to Witts 3

[Axe Man]

In last year's game Witts won the HO count against Sweet 55 to 27, but we won the clearances 49-36. Rowell had 6 touches and 1 clearance.

On Saturday Witts won the HO count against English 51 to 22, clearances were equal with 42 apiece. Rowell had 29 touches and 16 clearances.

To me that says Sweet did better nullifying Witts and the gcs midfield than English, we also won the game.
ok we had Treloar and Dunkley but they had Miller.

Hitout numbers mean little, hitouts to advantage more. Last year it was 20 from 55, this year 17 from 51. Pretty similar numbers. Neither English nor Sweet did a great job of nullifying Witts, the best tap ruckman going around who has increased his average hitout to advantage numbers significantly from last season.

Also worth noting Rowell is much improved in 2023 and is leading the league in clearances. The best tap ruckman and best clearance player is a pretty dangerous combination that we probably didn't do enough to effectively curtail. However I don't believe that Sweet would have made a significant difference.

[Danjul]

Out of interest Danjul (and I sincerely hope this doesn't come across as an attack) but you seem to value raw stats hugely. Do you value things other than total disposals, marks, tackles, hitouts etc highly or do you feel if you are getting more of these you must be better?

For example, a guy like Matthew Crouch isn't getting a game for the Crows. He would probably get more disposals than whoever he replaces if Crows gave him a game. Would you play him? I think Crozier would get it more than a few guys in our team too.

I agree that stats have a context and need to be seen in the wide view of how the team is going. They also have to be viewed in terms of the position played and the competition for the role. But they give a summary that is independent of subjective opinions and cloudy memory.

The reason I quoted those particular numbers is I did not see the game. So I looked at the stats published on the AFL website to confirm the comment I had read. They allowed me to compare players, Bruce is experienced and reliable and lost his position in the firsts simply because of injury. The stats suggest that In terms of general play Sweet was comparable.

In terms of tackles 5 is good, people on Woof are saying that was an unacceptable aspect of the main game. They are certainly lacking in Lobbs games- he averages 1 per game.

Importantly, the stats are compiled by an independent observer and summary value uses a neutral algorithm. So without seeing the game I can have reasonable confidence that Sweet contributed more to his team than Moyle did. But they were close.

When people saw JOD get 4 possessions and claimed that he had a good game and deserved to be selected again, to get another 4, I don?t understand how they generate their conclusion. When Lobb joined us he got 5 possessions and people said that was an acceptable start. Lobb is averaging 9 possessions and 1 goal and people are thrilled.

To illustrate, When Schache came to the club he got 10 games averaging 15 possessions and 2 goals per game. At the start of the next season I sat behind the goals and saw him kick 4 match winning goals against Hawthorn (who were still a strong team). Two weeks later he was dropped for two months after his first poor game. What he had done for his team and its supporters was worth nothing. When he got back into the team he got another 10 games and averaged 2 goals and 14 possessions. What I saw at the games and in the statistics record were consistent. The collective stats seem to describe the game the way I see it. So I have faith in them.

By the way, people on Woof were already calling for Schache to be dropped when he was our most consistent and reliable goal kicker. I remember one comment said that he was being carried by a good team. But I also remember that he kicked 30% of the teams goals in his return game. For 20 games he maintained stats that were twice as good as Lobb is doing now. But his days were already numbered. So who is correct in judging performance, the one who has something measurable to assist them or those understand the game?

So back to your question. Nobody has ever explicitly stated what is contributing more to the team than disposals, marks, goals, tackles, metres gained, spoils and 1%ers. I am happy to hear what those things are. Please tell me. But don?t tell me that when Bruce got his third possession late in the game at Marvel last year he deserved to be selected because he had acted as a forward line general (yep, read it on woof). He was selected and got 2 the next week, and those 5 got him selected again.


I think Lobb is an asset and JOD will be very good, so none of what I wrote is criticism. I only refer to them for comparisons.

[GVGjr]

@danjul

First up I appreciate the level of detail you provide us and while I don't always agree with your conclusions I can't fault the effort.

Regarding Schache:
While I agree with you that we didn't make the most of Schache's talents we need to acknowledge that outside of Robert Murphy laconic types typically don't make it or thrive at our club under Bevo. With that in mind the onus is on the player to lift their intensity and I don't think Schache could meet that requirement.
He's been moved on and has had similar challenges impressing Melbourne and Brisbane before us.
I think it's time to put that club back in the bag and move on.

Regarding Lobb:
I've been underwhelmed with his current output but remain hopeful that he can turn it around. I don't think it helps his game to spend time up on the wing but that's just one of the quirks of playing with us. After kicking 38 goals for Fremantle last season we should be setting a higher standard from him but I do understand that sometimes we have to accept a slightly lower benchmark from a structure player.

Regarding O'Donnell:
We've had a decent look at him and I think most of us would agree that he's got a long way to go and that his inclusion made us top heavy against the Suns. We will know on Thursday if the club wants to continue with him in the seniors.

[Danjul]

If you take Naughtons goals from his best 5 scoring games this season you arrive at a total of 15.

In 5 other games he scored 1 goal in each for a total of 5. You don?t know which Naughton you will get.

Another fact: He played 2 games Against Geelong last year and over the eight quarters he kicked 1 goal. Generally he was in good form so did the Geelong game plan take him out of the equation? Will it this week?

Another interesting fact: Sweet played 5 games with Naughton. How many goals did Naughton kick in those games? 15.

Might playing Sweet this weekend allow us to see the good Naughton in action??

Can anyone ask ChatGPT?

[Danjul]

@danjul

First up I appreciate the level of detail you provide us and while I don't always agree with your conclusions I can't fault the effort.

Regarding Schache:
While I agree with you that we didn't make the most of Schache's talents we need to acknowledge that outside of Robert Murphy laconic types typically don't make it or thrive at our club under Bevo. With that in mind the onus is on the player to lift their intensity and I don't think Schache could meet that requirement.
He's been moved on and has had similar challenges impressing Melbourne and Brisbane before us.
I think it's time to put that club back in the bag and move on.

Regarding Lobb:
I've been underwhelmed with his current output but remain hopeful that he can turn it around. I don't think it helps his game to spend time up on the wing but that's just one of the quirks of playing with us. After kicking 38 goals for Fremantle last season we should be setting a higher standard from him but I do understand that sometimes we have to accept a slightly lower benchmark from a structure player.

Regarding O'Donnell:
We've had a decent look at him and I think most of us would agree that he's got a long way to go and that his inclusion made us top heavy against the Suns. We will know on Thursday if the club wants to continue with him in the seniors.

I only referred to Schache as an historical use of statistics and how they relate to how I and others view games. This was in response to a direct question. It also allowed me to use a more recent addition to make a comparative point. I assume he has done quite well from football and still is.

I could have used Young?s early games I suppose. I would have had the same conclusion and you might have had the same response.

[EasternWest]

Can anyone ask ChatGPT?

GG doesn't like when we call him that. He's a real boy.

[lemmon]

If you take Naughtons goals from his best 5 scoring games this season you arrive at a total of 15.

In 5 other games he scored 1 goal in each for a total of 5. You don?t know which Naughton you will get.

Another fact: He played 2 games Against Geelong last year and over the eight quarters he kicked 1 goal. Generally he was in good form so did the Geelong game plan take him out of the equation? Will it this week?

Another interesting fact: Sweet played 5 games with Naughton. How many goals did Naughton kick in those games? 15.

Might playing Sweet this weekend allow us to see the good Naughton in action??

Can anyone ask ChatGPT?

Sorry, I don't understand this point.

In Jeremy Cameron's best-scoring 5 games you have 25 goals (avg. 5 goals per game) and in the other 6 games he's played, he's kicked 11 goals (avg. 1.8 goals per game), which seems to be just as significant a swing as you've identified in Naughton's game.

If anything, I think we've seen that Naughton consistently hits the scoreboard but he rarely puts together a big bag - he hasn't managed to kick a bag of 5 this year and has only ever kicked 5+ goals in a game five times across his career.

I think we absolutely know what we get from Naughton - it's a contest, it's flying for high balls, it's good defensive effort and agility at ground-level, and it's contributing on the scoreboard in some manner - but he's never been a guy that's translated dominance to the scoreboard or been able to convert consistently.

[Grantysghost]

GG doesn't like when we call him that. He's a real boy.

Non sequitur.

[Danjul]

Sorry, I don't understand this point.

In Jeremy Cameron's best-scoring 5 games you have 25 goals (avg. 5 goals per game) and in the other 6 games he's played, he's kicked 11 goals (avg. 1.8 goals per game), which seems to be just as significant a swing as you've identified in Naughton's game.

If anything, I think we've seen that Naughton consistently hits the scoreboard but he rarely puts together a big bag - he hasn't managed to kick a bag of 5 this year and has only ever kicked 5+ goals in a game five times across his career.

I think we absolutely know what we get from Naughton - it's a contest, it's flying for high balls, it's good defensive effort and agility at ground-level, and it's contributing on the scoreboard in some manner - but he's never been a guy that's translated dominance to the scoreboard or been able to convert consistently.

Your paragraph 1.
This is true, he is a great goal scorer. He only needs a few minutes to change a game. On your data I would suggest that he is more influential.

but can we make him kick less? Maybe by putting Naughton on him. That?s what I would do. Who loses the most if neither score?

paragraphs 2 and 3

I agree here too. But what I was pointing out was he was consistent when Sweet was in the ruck. Maybe that is worth some investigating seeing he failed against Geelong last year and he has only kicked a goal in each of his last 3 games.

Last year Geelong got the jump on English in Melbourne and had 5 goals in the first quarter, that limited Naughtons opportunities if I am remembering correctly. Please check.

[Danjul]

Sorry, I don't understand this point.

In Jeremy Cameron's best-scoring 5 games you have 25 goals (avg. 5 goals per game) and in the other 6 games he's played, he's kicked 11 goals (avg. 1.8 goals per game), which seems to be just as significant a swing as you've identified in Naughton's game.

If anything, I think we've seen that Naughton consistently hits the scoreboard but he rarely puts together a big bag - he hasn't managed to kick a bag of 5 this year and has only ever kicked 5+ goals in a game five times across his career.

I think we absolutely know what we get from Naughton - it's a contest, it's flying for high balls, it's good defensive effort and agility at ground-level, and it's contributing on the scoreboard in some manner - but he's never been a guy that's translated dominance to the scoreboard or been able to convert consistently.

Sorry to bother you again but I just looked up what happened in Sweets four games the previous year.

Naughton kicked. 2. 4. 5. and 1 goal = 12 goals. Same average as last year, 3 per game.

So in the 9 games where Sweet rucked Naughton got 27 goals.

Interestingly, in that 1 goal game Sweet wasn?t given as much game time.

[soupman]

Your paragraph 1.

but can we make him kick less? Maybe by putting Naughton on him. That?s what I would do. Who loses the most if neither score?

Depends on how good a job we think any alternative can do.

Is the difference between Naughton playing on him vs say Gardner vast enough to cover the disruption to our forward setup? Naughton hasn't even played defence for years now, sure we expect him to be awesome but will he be? Maybe our forwardline will function better without him, but it's a huge gamble.

As always your argument for Sweet is very well researched, but I am unsure if correlation equals causation in this instance.

[Danjul]

Depends on how good a job we think any alternative can do.

Is the difference between Naughton playing on him vs say Gardner vast enough to cover the disruption to our forward setup? Naughton hasn't even played defence for years now, sure we expect him to be awesome but will he be? Maybe our forwardline will function better without him, but it's a huge gamble.

As always your argument for Sweet is very well researched, but I am unsure if correlation equals causation in this instance.

Ah, the tobacco industry rebuttal.

It could be a coincidence, but if there is anything in it the team and the club suffers. Should we all be carrying that guilt?

9 games for 27 goals. And he can?t get a game. Not worth testing?

Remember, I paid to see injured and unfit and unready players be selected and produce 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 possessions since this time last year. And people were happy and talked up all of those performances.

Sweets ruck work has been proven to bring an unusual synergy.

If we were thrilled with JOD having 4 possessions two weeks in a row maybe we could risk Sweet instead. Personally I would not expect much, after all, he has never had a development run like Arthur Jones, and look at how a little faith has worked there.

[Danjul]

Sweet is way off being an AFL ruckman at this stage

A bit Harsh.

I went to the Geelong game at Dockland last year. The one matching this one. I sat on the wing with a perfect view of the centre.

In the first quarter English was destroyed because Geelong used two ruckmen to work in tandem jumping into him. and Geelong put on 6 goals before we knew it.

We selected Khamis as the second ruck in a stunning brain-fade . He was giving away more than 10 cm and 10kg. How did he go? Exactly as expected. 2 kicks and 2 hitouts. Totally monstered out of the game.

The Dogs were by far the better team. But we got zero momentum from the ruck. And Geelongs ruck dominance helped Cameron kick 6.

And we worry about Sweet. We will accept anything from some players, there?s no lower limit.

I can think of other games we lost because we didn?t play Sweet as a potential plan B. And I only have to go back 5 days to get one.
.

[MrMahatma]

English is a different player this year