The Crows are like - 3rd on the ladder? Really??

[mjp]

Aaahh Adelaide. I really don't like you. A lot of it has to do with 1997 and 1998 - but it also has a bit to do with 2015. All I can remember is finals against Adelaide where we go in favourites and come away losers. I mean - this isn't a final but it kind of feels like it after the cheesecake fixture of the past few weeks.

These guys are - I think - 3rd right now and just look dangerous.


They’re Winning the Contested Stuff

Their win over Melbourne last weekend wasn’t a fluke. The numbers tell the story:

• Inside 50s: 55 to 49
• Clearances: 42 to 39
• Contested Possessions: 148 to 139

They also beat Brisbane the week before in all three of those stats. They’re not just competing with top teams — they’re beating them at the contest.

Forward Line Is Working Nicely

They’ve got a really solid setup up forward.

• Tex Walker is still dangerous. Doesn’t need many chances.
• Fogarty crashes packs, kicks goals, gives them presence.
• Thilthorpe is covering heaps of ground and starting to show why they picked him up early.

Then you’ve got the smalls…

• Rankine kicked five last week — but it’s not just that. He’s been rolling up through the midfield too, giving them bursts of pace and creativity around stoppage.
• Keays doesn’t look like a small forward but keeps popping up in the right spots and applies pressure.

Forwards? They’ve got good balance — if the tall boys don’t get you, the smalls will.

Defence Holds Up

Not a lot of fuss down back, but they get the job done — and then some.

• Josh Worrell and Mark Keane are both ranked top 3 in the league for intercepts — yep, Adelaide have the #2 and #3 intercept players in the AFL right now.
• Mitch Hinge gives them that run and tidy ball use on exit
• Rory Laird, back in defence, adds experience and clean hands under pressure

They hold their shape, they’re hard to shift, and they punish sloppy forward entries

Midfield Built Around Dawson

Jordan Dawson just keeps showing up. Clearances, metres gained, clean ball use — he’s the one driving everything.

Around him:

• Jake Soligo adds pace and energy
• Sam Berry brings some grunt
• And now Rankine is getting midfield minutes too, giving them spark when things start to clog up

Mids? Not flashy but getting it done.

TL;DR

Winning clearances + contested ball	Beat Melbourne & Brisbane in both categories
Forward line is clicking	Talls marking, smalls finishing — and Rankine’s rolling through the guts
Backline holds its shape	Intercept kings in Keane & Worrell + rebound from Hinge & Laird
Dawson leading a settled midfield	Everyone knows their role, and it shows

Just as well games are played on grass I guess...

This feels to me like:

#1: We dominate territory but can't score 'enough' against the Crows defense.
#2: Adelaide - because of our territory dominance - have an open forward line which suits their tall/small mix down to the ground.
#3: We WIN the midfield battle but the Adelaide mids are able to energise off their intercept markers down back and have a real impact on the result despite the numbers looking 'just ok'.

This one feels like one of those "they are strong where we are weak" type games when we fight hard and the game 'looks' the way we would want it to look (footy in our half, repeat stops and territory owned by us) but we battle to score and they kick 12-goals to 7. Or something.

Of course, maybe Sam Darcy is a cheat code and he kicks 6-goals early. Maybe we play an extra anchor to help retain the footy across half back instead of our usual aggressive SQUEEZE 60m from our attacking goal line. Maybe.

[Bornadog]

One of the biggest issues with Adelaide is turnovers. They rank #1 in turnovers (we are ranked #17) and this is where we need to capitalise. In all other areas around the ground we are pretty well neck and neck except they are ranked 10th in total disposals.

We have the forward power to kick a big score and need to cut off the supply to their forward line.

[Axe Man]

It's funny the Crom have had a remarkably similar season to us thus far.

They have beaten all the teams they should beat, just like us.

They have lost to: Gold Coast, Geelong, Freo, Collingwood and Hawks, all by smallish margins. Sound familiar?

They have 1 more win than us - Brisbane at Adelaide Oval. We should have beaten Brisbane from the position we were in but it was hot and not on our home ground.

They are strong at home, their only loss was against Geelong in gather round. Their 3 trips to Melbourne have all been at the MCG (how do they get to play at the G more than we do?) with wins v Essendon & Richmond and a loss to the Pies.

It is going to be a fascinating contest.

[Rusty12]

Yep, they are a real solid football team, across all lines.
I think in this one, our edge is in our top 6 players.
Assuming everyone else performs near their expected role, and so do the crows, it is our best 6 Vs their best 6 that will decide the outcome.
Darcy will not be outmarked, another big performance from Naughton might be the key.

[The Adelaide Connection]

Aaahh Adelaide. I really don't like you. A lot of it has to do with 1997 and 1998 - but it also has a bit to do with 2015. All I can remember is finals against Adelaide where we go in favourites and come away losers. I mean - this isn't a final but it kind of feels like it after the cheesecake fixture of the past few weeks.

These guys are - I think - 3rd right now and just look dangerous.


They’re Winning the Contested Stuff

Their win over Melbourne last weekend wasn’t a fluke. The numbers tell the story:

• Inside 50s: 55 to 49
• Clearances: 42 to 39
• Contested Possessions: 148 to 139

They also beat Brisbane the week before in all three of those stats. They’re not just competing with top teams — they’re beating them at the contest.

Forward Line Is Working Nicely

They’ve got a really solid setup up forward.

• Tex Walker is still dangerous. Doesn’t need many chances.
• Fogarty crashes packs, kicks goals, gives them presence.
• Thilthorpe is covering heaps of ground and starting to show why they picked him up early.

Then you’ve got the smalls…

• Rankine kicked five last week — but it’s not just that. He’s been rolling up through the midfield too, giving them bursts of pace and creativity around stoppage.
• Keays doesn’t look like a small forward but keeps popping up in the right spots and applies pressure.

Forwards? They’ve got good balance — if the tall boys don’t get you, the smalls will.

Defence Holds Up

Not a lot of fuss down back, but they get the job done — and then some.

• Josh Worrell and Mark Keane are both ranked top 3 in the league for intercepts — yep, Adelaide have the #2 and #3 intercept players in the AFL right now.
• Mitch Hinge gives them that run and tidy ball use on exit
• Rory Laird, back in defence, adds experience and clean hands under pressure

They hold their shape, they’re hard to shift, and they punish sloppy forward entries

Midfield Built Around Dawson

Jordan Dawson just keeps showing up. Clearances, metres gained, clean ball use — he’s the one driving everything.

Around him:

• Jake Soligo adds pace and energy
• Sam Berry brings some grunt
• And now Rankine is getting midfield minutes too, giving them spark when things start to clog up

Mids? Not flashy but getting it done.

TL;DR

Winning clearances + contested ball	Beat Melbourne & Brisbane in both categories
Forward line is clicking	Talls marking, smalls finishing — and Rankine’s rolling through the guts
Backline holds its shape	Intercept kings in Keane & Worrell + rebound from Hinge & Laird
Dawson leading a settled midfield	Everyone knows their role, and it shows

Just as well games are played on grass I guess...

This feels to me like:

#1: We dominate territory but can't score 'enough' against the Crows defense.
#2: Adelaide - because of our territory dominance - have an open forward line which suits their tall/small mix down to the ground.
#3: We WIN the midfield battle but the Adelaide mids are able to energise off their intercept markers down back and have a real impact on the result despite the numbers looking 'just ok'.

This one feels like one of those "they are strong where we are weak" type games when we fight hard and the game 'looks' the way we would want it to look (footy in our half, repeat stops and territory owned by us) but we battle to score and they kick 12-goals to 7. Or something.

Of course, maybe Sam Darcy is a cheat code and he kicks 6-goals early. Maybe we play an extra anchor to help retain the footy across half back instead of our usual aggressive SQUEEZE 60m from our attacking goal line. Maybe.

It was a game of two halves against Melbourne- ultimately Melbourne should have been 40+ points up, but left the door open with their inability to finish (early, they actually corrected this in the second half). Brisbane kicked a tonne of points in the last and ultimately should have taken that game too. But it has all just fed into their self-belief really- which makes them extra dangerous Ala the Hawks last year.

Fogarty kicked 5 on us last outing, he is the one I most worry about. Starve him early and he goes right off the boil- turning his focus on trying to hit people and becoming a frustrated dummy-spitting man-baby.

But yeah, North Melbourne were able to score way too easily at times (with one of the best tall and best small forwards mind you), so given the calibre of this deep batting forward line that is a pretty big concern.

Could be an old fashioned shoot out.

[Bornadog]

It was a game of two halves against Melbourne- ultimately Melbourne should have been 40+ points up, but left the door open with their inability to finish (early, they actually corrected this in the second half). Brisbane kicked a tonne of points in the last and ultimately should have taken that game too. But it has all just fed into their self-belief really- which makes them extra dangerous Ala the Hawks last year.

Fogarty kicked 5 on us last outing, he is the one I most worry about. Starve him early and he goes right off the boil- turning his focus on trying to hit people and becoming a frustrated dummy-spitting man-baby.

But yeah, North Melbourne were able to score way too easily at times (with one of the best tall and best small forwards mind you), so given the calibre of this deep batting forward line that is a pretty big concern.

Could be an old fashioned shoot out.

Melbourne lost by 15 points, but there was a vital review of a goal which went against them and the difference could have changed the game. The AFL admitted they made a mistake. I think the Crows are gettable.

North did kick some easy goals in the first half, but we tightened up and they only kicked 5 in the second half ( one in the last)

Can't wait for this.

[Happy Days]

What we should’ve done is moved the game to Whitten Oval.

[Bornadog]

What we should’ve done is moved the game to Whitten Oval.

Was that in your submission?

[comrade]

I’m all for a 138 to 123 type shoot out and hopefully we’re on the right side of the ledger. Footy is supposed to be fun.

[Bulldog Joe]

I’m all for a 138 to 123 type shoot out and hopefully we’re on the right side of the ledger. Footy is supposed to be fun.

I prefer 138 to 23 in our favour.

Footy is fun when we are kicking goals.

[azabob]

What we should’ve done is moved the game to Whitten Oval.

Should've kept it at Ballarat. I called it at the time playing Adelaide under the roof is a bad idea... just a bad idea...

[Bornadog]

Should've kept it at Ballarat. I called it at the time playing Adelaide under the roof is a bad idea... just a bad idea...

Yep, got to go for the win.

[Happy Days]

Should've kept it at Ballarat. I called it at the time playing Adelaide under the roof is a bad idea... just a bad idea...

Maybe, but I’ll definitely have a better time watching it at least. This game is low key the most box office game that the AFL can put on right now, I’m glad that more than 500 people will get to see it live.

[Bornadog]

Maybe, but I’ll definitely have a better time watching it at least. This game is low key the most box office game that the AFL can put on right now, I’m glad that more than 500 people will get to see it live.

Saturday afternoon, no excuses for supporters - I am expecting 40k at least there

[comrade]

I prefer 138 to 23 in our favour.

Footy is fun when we are kicking goals.

With our backline, we'd need to win the inside 50s 59-3 to keep it to that sort of score line.