Rating our list 2020 Lewis Young 2

[hujsh]

Re: Rating our list 2020 Lewis Young 2

I have not done that.

What i have said is Young has played some good footy and I don’t think he has received sufficient credit.

I have raised stats as a way of reinforcing that conclusion. And every reference to a measure of performance has been dismissed.

So here is my opinion:

When Lewis Young played in his first 2 AFL games as an 18 year old and had 37 disposals (8 contested) 19 marks and 8 one percenters - 5 easy to address measures of a footballer, he had rare start to his career and showed special talent. And he has been quite reasonable is most other games. I am very disappointed in what the club has done to benefit from that opportunity. I also think the club is worse off for his extended absences since his debut.

So nail your flag to the mast.

Be the first to give a contrasting opinion supported by evidence.

I can't be bothered to do so but you could make the same post and replace Lewis Young with Jason Tutt using his initial stats. No one is going to argue he didn't have a good first 2 games.

One problem with this line of reasoning is that all your statistics point to past performance (and while I have issues with the validity of some of these let's put it to the side for now). What evidence is there that in 2020 he deserved any game time beyond what he got? The frustrating conclusion is there is none and we don't know if that's because he didn't deserve them or because he was ignored since we have no real footage and limited reports on his performances in scratch matches and such.

[jazzadogs]

Re: Rating our list 2020 Lewis Young 2

I have not done that.

What i have said is Young has played some good footy and I don’t think he has received sufficient credit.

I have raised stats as a way of reinforcing that conclusion. And every reference to a measure of performance has been dismissed.

So here is my opinion:

When Lewis Young played in his first 2 AFL games as an 18 year old and had 37 disposals (8 contested) 19 marks and 8 one percenters - 5 easy to address measures of a footballer, he had rare start to his career and showed special talent. And he has been quite reasonable is most other games. I am very disappointed in what the club has done to benefit from that opportunity. I also think the club is worse off for his extended absences since his debut.

So nail your flag to the mast.

Be the first to give a contrasting opinion supported by evidence.

Stats aren't the only form of evidence. A match report which says Dale Morris effectively shut down Mcleod in his first game is also evidence. People who watched the game and recall his performance can provide the evidence of what they saw.

Plenty of people are surprised that Young hasn't played more, but you can't argue that he should be playing in 2020 based on stats from 2017.

[jeemak]

Re: Rating our list 2020 Lewis Young 2

I have not done that.

What i have said is Young has played some good footy and I don’t think he has received sufficient credit.

I have raised stats as a way of reinforcing that conclusion. And every reference to a measure of performance has been dismissed.

So here is my opinion:

When Lewis Young played in his first 2 AFL games as an 18 year old and had 37 disposals (8 contested) 19 marks and 8 one percenters - 5 easy to address measures of a footballer, he had rare start to his career and showed special talent. And he has been quite reasonable is most other games. I am very disappointed in what the club has done to benefit from that opportunity. I also think the club is worse off for his extended absences since his debut.

So nail your flag to the mast.

Be the first to give a contrasting opinion supported by evidence.

He definitely did play two good games to start his career, but he tapered off in his first season thereafter due to shaky kicking and not being allowed to intercept as freely because teams having watched him figured it's best not to let him do that.

Career wise on basic stats alone, he sits pretty close to Cordy. However, he averages roughly 50% more clangers a game than Cordy does and goes at 65% disposal efficiency versus Cordy's 78%.

Against Keath from a career perspective, the story is pretty much the same. 30% more clangers versus Keath, and Keath goes at 77% disposal efficiency.

Interestingly at the age of 21, which is the same age Young was at the end of the 2020 season Cordy was going at a couple more possessions than Young has for his career, and at 84% disposal efficiency with Young delivering more than 70% more clangers than Cordy had.

The story here is possibly that Cordy has slipped, and I don't think you'll find a poster on this site that doesn't think that's the case. However, it doesn't mean that because of that Young should be getting a game because of how well he played week one and two of his career because at that time Cordy was playing pretty good footy and was safer with the footy.

But again, that's only part of the story because what the stats don't tell you is what role each of these players have been playing over time and how we set the ground up etc.......or whatever else you care to think about.

[Danjul]

Re: Rating our list 2020 Lewis Young 2

He definitely did play two good games to start his career, but he tapered off in his first season thereafter due to shaky kicking and not being allowed to intercept as freely because teams having watched him figured it's best not to let him do that.

Career wise on basic stats alone, he sits pretty close to Cordy. However, he averages roughly 50% more clangers a game than Cordy does and goes at 65% disposal efficiency versus Cordy's 78%.

Against Keath from a career perspective, the story is pretty much the same. 30% more clangers versus Keath, and Keath goes at 77% disposal efficiency.

Interestingly at the age of 21, which is the same age Young was at the end of the 2020 season Cordy was going at a couple more possessions than Young has for his career, and at 84% disposal efficiency with Young delivering more than 70% more clangers than Cordy had.

The story here is possibly that Cordy has slipped, and I don't think you'll find a poster on this site that doesn't think that's the case. However, it doesn't mean that because of that Young should be getting a game because of how well he played week one and two of his career because at that time Cordy was playing pretty good footy and was safer with the footy.

But again, that's only part of the story because what the stats don't tell you is what role each of these players have been playing over time and how we set the ground up etc.......or whatever else you care to think about.

I like that reply, thanks.

[Danjul]

Re: Rating our list 2020 Lewis Young 2

Stats aren't the only form of evidence. A match report which says Dale Morris effectively shut down Mcleod in his first game is also evidence. People who watched the game and recall his performance can provide the evidence of what they saw.

Plenty of people are surprised that Young hasn't played more, but you can't argue that he should be playing in 2020 based on stats from 2017.

I haven’t done that. I use his first two games to suggest that he has talent.

His career stats with the Dogs are reasonable (to me), but easily dismissed unless placed against what people see as an acceptable standard. The problem is finding a standard which is free of emotion already attached.

If I select Keath, as others have suggested he is competing with Young, I see:

Keath with consecutive games with the Dogs. Disposals- 179 Marks - 70 Clangers- 23. 1% - 81 tackles 15

Young (3 less games ) with the Dogs. Disposals- 174 Marks - 66 Clangers- 39 1% - 87. Tackles 24

On these stats Young warrants interest. But what is more valuable, 15 more tackles and 1% for Young or 16 less clangers for Keath.

Personally I believe all 3 stats are in Young’s favour because they reflect the fact that he has played more closely to opponents, which has been my observation. And that suits our key position needs.


Keath was was a great pick up, no doubt. I think he should be playing with Young, not competing for a position. He would be a great mentor for him.

Also, like Bruce, Keath has the advantage of playing at another club where he was subjected to less scrutiny by Dogs supporters. Their view of him is boosted by the knowledge that he was getting 60% more disposals and marks per game in 2019 with Adelaide. Similar to us knowing Bruce got a lot more goals at the Saints. They have expectations in their favour too.


Not criticising anyone, just trying to understand the reality.

[Danjul]

Re: Rating our list 2020 Lewis Young 2

I can't be bothered to do so but you could make the same post and replace Lewis Young with Jason Tutt using his initial stats. No one is going to argue he didn't have a good first 2 games.

One problem with this line of reasoning is that all your statistics point to past performance (and while I have issues with the validity of some of these let's put it to the side for now). What evidence is there that in 2020 he deserved any game time beyond what he got? The frustrating conclusion is there is none and we don't know if that's because he didn't deserve them or because he was ignored since we have no real footage and limited reports on his performances in scratch matches and such.

I’ve done it for you.

Tutt had an exceptional first game, 26 possessions. If I remember correctly his first few kicks were goals.

But unlike Young he had 18 games with the Dogs in seasons 3 and 4 whereas Young got 6. In his third he missed a block of 8 games, after a 1 possession game (injury?) , before coming back to finish the season, rounds 15-22. .

In his 3 and 4th season with us Tutt consistently got around 15 possessions but never got over 20 after his first game.

When he went to Carlton his output went back up. He played 13 games (again in blocks such as rounds 14-23 ). In his second and third games with Carlton he had 23 and 24 possessions, they would have been happy with that. In round 21 he repeated his 26 disposals in his debut game with us.

I don’t know why his career suddenly came to an end shortly after, but I don’t see much similarity with Young.

Tutt had career best 26 possessions in his first game and his close to last, game 37.

Will Young do that?

[Mofra]

Re: Rating our list 2020 Lewis Young 2

I have not done that.

What i have said is Young has played some good footy and I don’t think he has received sufficient credit.

I have raised stats as a way of reinforcing that conclusion. And every reference to a measure of performance has been dismissed.

So here is my opinion:

When Lewis Young played in his first 2 AFL games as an 18 year old and had 37 disposals (8 contested) 19 marks and 8 one percenters - 5 easy to address measures of a footballer, he had rare start to his career and showed special talent. And he has been quite reasonable is most other games. I am very disappointed in what the club has done to benefit from that opportunity. I also think the club is worse off for his extended absences since his debut.

So nail your flag to the mast.

Be the first to give a contrasting opinion supported by evidence.

He was playing very loose in his early games though - the fact is if he were to be selected in the side, he would need to do so as a legitimate KPD and not as a loose interceptor. Again, stats vs reality.

The kid is only 22 - there is still plenty of development left. Personally if he's not best 22 by the end of the year but has shown good signs I'm not willing to write him off. Moz was only rookied as a 22 year old by way of comparison.

I'm sure plenty of us remember Fozzie who was a classic late bloomer but became an absolute rock at CHB for us.

[The Pie Man]

Re: Rating our list 2020 Lewis Young 2

Can you think of anyone where you thought 'ahh, he's a bit soft*' at some point early in their career, and they overcome it and 'made it'?

I don't see it.

*I get that's a horrible term to throw around about senior footballers, they're all brave to cross the line and play. Some have a greater 'urgency at the contest' than others (to borrow a Ross Lyonism)

[Bulldog Joe]

Re: Rating our list 2020 Lewis Young 2

I’ve done it for you.

Tutt had an exceptional first game, 26 possessions. If I remember correctly his first few kicks were goals.

But unlike Young he had 18 games with the Dogs in seasons 3 and 4 whereas Young got 6. In his third he missed a block of 8 games, after a 1 possession game (injury?) , before coming back to finish the season, rounds 15-22. .

In his 3 and 4th season with us Tutt consistently got around 15 possessions but never got over 20 after his first game.

When he went to Carlton his output went back up. He played 13 games (again in blocks such as rounds 14-23 ). In his second and third games with Carlton he had 23 and 24 possessions, they would have been happy with that. In round 21 he repeated his 26 disposals in his debut game with us.

I don’t know why his career suddenly came to an end shortly after, but I don’t see much similarity with Young.

Tutt had career best 26 possessions in his first game and his close to last, game 37.

Will Young do that?

If Jason Tutt is the benchmark for anything, it will be failure.

Despite the stats Tutt never was a true AFL standard player. He was a ground ball player without the ability to handle the ball cleanly.

He had kicking ability, but fumbled always under pressure. Looked good when things were easy, but every other time he was a liability.

[AshMac]

Re: Rating our list 2020 Lewis Young 2

What I compared are actual events.

If Young has the same number of marks in a game as Naughton, then he has the same number of marks as Naughton.
Most contributors here on Woof would argue that he hasn’t because only Naughton can have the same number of marks as Naughton.

When Young had 21 possessions and 9 marks in his first game that became a fact. When Morris took 52 (consecutive??) games to beat those measures of performance he does not cancel out Young’s achievement.

Now I am quite comfortable with people using a two step evaluation of performance. First, what is the number? Second, who got it. But the second shouldn’t cancel the first because it is the wrong name.

What Young has done on a number of occasions has been creditable and that should be recognised and appreciated. When he has a poor game that should be recognised. Fair is fair.

You referred to his final games of 2018, he only had two games in 2018. Games 8 and 9 for him.

They were pretty ordinary, 10 and 9 possessions- 7 kicks in each. And 14 and 10 one percenters.
For comparison, in his 13th game Morris had 2 kicks and 3 handballs. And 8 one percenters, his equal maximum for the year.

And was selected the next week.

And how did Morris do in his games 8 and 9? 11 and 9 possessions and 2 and 4 one percenters.

The comparison is: 19 possessions and 24 one percenters against 20 possessions and 6 one percenters. Yes, I see what you mean. One player is clearly rubbish and the other is a superstar.

And in his first 17 games Morris had 8 possessions 5 times. And 9 possessions 5 times. Looked at another way, in 11 games in a season Morris could not exceed the standard that you use to dismiss Young.

It was only after he had played 20 consecutive games that Morris started to generate consistent performances that were better than what you use to dismiss Young. And many people are confident that Young won’t get to 20.

And never once in his first 17 games, did Morris kick the ball 7 times. I like the fact that Young had a natural tendency to kick.

I like Morris and he became a true champion, but that only happened because people had faith in his talent and gave him time. Even when he was tentative and ineffective and worse than Young. In my opinion Morris would struggle to get a game if he was starting out now. It is unfortunate that people use what he eventually became as an excuse to diminish others.

Firstly - it’s worth pointing out no one I have seen, and certainly not my post is using a comparison of Lew Young and Morris to “diminish” Young.

Secondly - you are obsessed w possessions and I find them to the most part to be irrelevant. No. of kicks means nothing without the context of efficacy. No. of marks means nothing without understanding the context and situation of those marks.

Thirdly - my original comment had to do with Lewis Young’s body language and my perception of his intensity during his games. He could play 1 game or 100 games and the hunger, competitiveness and intensity is comparable (across a whole game). I’d love him to come out and cement his spot on the list - he has a lot of physical attributes which give him everything he needs to succeed in that department. Again, and in case it still isn’t clear - I get the impression he is in his own head more than anything else holding him back.

Lastly - I’m not sure there is a single number for evaluating performance. It’s a combination of stats; yes possessions - where they were on the ground, when in the game they happened and efficiency - but there is also an unstructured analysis - a gut feel - it’s Mabo, it’s the constitution - and an essay quoting possession stats with zero context on them just doesn’t cover enough of the equation.