Draft Day 2019: Prediction Versus Hopes (with Poll)

[The Adelaide Connection]

Procrastination has taken hold and I thought it would be great to see what everyone's predictions for our picks are versus what you are (reasonably realistically) hoping for.

Prediction:
13. Miles Bergman
53. A small forward I know nothing about (from the AFL site- Budarick, Garcia, Lowson, Mellis, Pina, Rosas?)
89. Lachie Young upgrade

Hoping for:
13. Fischer McAsey slides or we take Jackson Mead (with Port not willing to pay that much for him)
53. Ned Cahill or Mitch O'Neill slide through
89. Lachie Young upgrade

The news that Weightman toured is interesting, but surely we wouldn't have been that obvious about it. It looked like it was almost for the cameras.

(Mods can you delete the other thread, thanks)

[Go_Dogs]

Re: Draft Day 2019: Prediction Versus Hopes (with Poll)

Don't think it can happen now, but thought we could get KP with out second.

Now I have no idea...

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Draft Day 2019: Prediction Versus Hopes (with Poll)

I find the psychological nature of this period fascinating.

We report to have interest in Bergman. Now he's a possible bolter at Pick 12.
We report to have interest in Pickett. He's now a possible bolter at Pick 10.
Weightman who was rated higher than both of those guts a few weeks ago looks like slipping down to Pick 13, and he toured WO.
If for whatever reason, other clubs 'steal' the bolters from us and insert Bergman & Pickett into the talent order before our first pick, then some really good players are going to slide into our club.

Four sleeps to go.

[The Adelaide Connection]

Re: Draft Day 2019: Prediction Versus Hopes (with Poll)

I find the psychological nature of this period fascinating.

We report to have interest in Bergman. Now he's a possible bolter at Pick 12.
We report to have interest in Pickett. He's now a possible bolter at Pick 10.
Weightman who was rated higher than both of those guts a few weeks ago looks like slipping down to Pick 13, and he toured WO.
If for whatever reason, other clubs 'steal' the bolters from us and insert Bergman & Pickett into the talent order before our first pick, then some really good players are going to slide into our club.

Four sleeps to go.

Something seems amiss with the public nature of the Weightman tour.

They do everything to keep their cards well hidden and then have the player they want in open view at training? Nah, I don't think so. It is some kind of mind games that we are playing. Isn't it?

I do wonder how much the media actually have their fingers on the pulse and how much is speculative guesswork. Dogs interviewed player x so they must be looking to take him with 13. Nevermind the other 20 they don't know about.

[jeemak]

Re: Draft Day 2019: Prediction Versus Hopes (with Poll)

Something seems amiss with the public nature of the Weightman tour.

They do everything to keep their cards well hidden and then have the player they want in open view at training? Nah, I don't think so. It is some kind of mind games that we are playing. Isn't it?

I do wonder how much the media actually have their fingers on the pulse and how much is speculative guesswork. Dogs interviewed player x so they must be looking to take him with 13. Nevermind the other 20 they don't know about.

I don't think we'd do that to the player if we're not going to take him on purpose, if that's you mean?

Perhaps I'm naïve, but this time of year is content starved and the AFL is doing all it can to be relevant so it's a concerted effort from clubs, the league and media partners to present as much as possible and clubs are being more open with what they're doing as a result.

The reality is there's going to be up to five or six players we expect to possibly be available at our selection, there's no point being closed about it because there's always leaks and there's clear common rankings anyway. At our pick there's a couple of bolters who might fit, there's a couple of possible sliders who might slide, it's not rocket surgery putting it together.

[jeemak]

Re: Draft Day 2019: Prediction Versus Hopes (with Poll)

I find the psychological nature of this period fascinating.

We report to have interest in Bergman. Now he's a possible bolter at Pick 12.
We report to have interest in Pickett. He's now a possible bolter at Pick 10.
Weightman who was rated higher than both of those guts a few weeks ago looks like slipping down to Pick 13, and he toured WO.
If for whatever reason, other clubs 'steal' the bolters from us and insert Bergman & Pickett into the talent order before our first pick, then some really good players are going to slide into our club.

Four sleeps to go.

I get that but I think it's a lot more shallow and deeper at the same time (if that makes sense - it probably doesn't) than it was years ago when Clayton was our recruiting manager because there's just so much information available to us about prospects now.

I read this article in The Age today, about the private school dominance in the recruitment of junior talent and subsequent draft outcomes, and I can't help but think information about players and club intentions are so well known now because it's a sub-industry to the major one being senior footy:

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/how-private-schools-have-taken-over-the-afl-20191121-p53cso.html

How does anything stay secret or relatively unknown when you have particular fraternities or classes of players and schools all vying for the highest level of talent production and seeing results at the draft table? Parents spruik, professionals within the pathway system spruik their wares and knowledge both on and off the record, and the media just waits and takes it all in to use as reasonably informed bystanders.

As I replied to TAC, when this level of information is available it's hard not to kind of hit the mark, but like you, I am fascinated to find out how it all plays out. There's literally not been a draft period after which I haven't been optimistic afterwards, Christian Howard's selection included (and he actually did show he could play from time to time), so like you've said it's only a few more sleeps before it's done and I'm looking forward to it.

However, the only caveat I'll put on the excitement around the draft is that we absolutely nailed the trade period. *!*!*!*!ing nailed it. Usually I look forward to the draft knowing we did our best, had a crack or whatever, but it just didn't fall our way. This time we nailed the trade period and the draft while important, doesn't seem so critical in the scheme of things because we did so.

[GVGjr]

Re: Draft Day 2019: Prediction Versus Hopes (with Poll)

Something seems amiss with the public nature of the Weightman tour.

They do everything to keep their cards well hidden and then have the player they want in open view at training? Nah, I don't think so. It is some kind of mind games that we are playing. Isn't it?

I do wonder how much the media actually have their fingers on the pulse and how much is speculative guesswork. Dogs interviewed player x so they must be looking to take him with 13. Nevermind the other 20 they don't know about.

Last year we toured Baily Smith and Ben King and King went the pick before Smith

Jeemak is correct, whilst there are no promises or commitments made I don't think we would tour a player we genuinely didn't have an interest in.

Last year we had an early pick so you don't need to tour many players, this year at 13 moving to 15 we have probably toured 3 players in Pickett, Bergman and Weightman.
If you believe the speculation that has Melbourne being linked to Pickett and Weightman and the Hawks having an passing interest in Bergman so you would have to think all three are in the mix with us

I'm still a little hopeful that a player like Kemp, Stephens, McAsey or Robertson might slip through and we feel compelled to select them. I also think Josh Worrell should be in the discussion

[The Doctor]

Re: Draft Day 2019: Prediction Versus Hopes (with Poll)

Prediction

Pick 13: Kysaiah Pickett
Pick 53: Anthony Scott (Footscray)
Pick 89: Lachlan Young (upgrade)

Hoping

Pick 13: Brodie Kemp
Pick 53: Flynn Perez or a ruckman/forward (Emerson Jeka)
Pick 89: Jamaine Jones

Problem with what I'm hoping for is that both Kemp & Perez are coming off knee injuries. If they weren't they would not be available at our picks for sure.

[GVGjr]

Re: Draft Day 2019: Prediction Versus Hopes (with Poll)

Likely scenario:
Pick 13 - Cody Weightman
Pick 53 - Nick Bryan
Pick 89 - Lachlan Young upgrade

I wouldn't say no to: (Assuming none of the higher rated players slide)
Pick 13 - Josh Worrell
Pick 53 - Callum Jamieson

In the unlikely scenario that we traded picks:
Two from Miles Bergman, Jay Rantall, Mitch Georgiades and Trent Bianco would be in the mix

[GVGjr]

Re: Draft Day 2019: Prediction Versus Hopes (with Poll)

Problem with what I'm hoping for is that both Kemp & Perez are coming off knee injuries. If they weren't they would not be available at our picks for sure.

Given we don't necessarily need a huge contribution from draftees next year I'm not sure it would be an issue.

Kemp would be an awesome addition if he was available and worth waiting a bit longer to get right

[Testekill]

Re: Draft Day 2019: Prediction Versus Hopes (with Poll)

I predict that Melbourne won't bid on Green and hand GWS two top 5 picks.

[Twodogs]

Re: Draft Day 2019: Prediction Versus Hopes (with Poll)

I predict that Melbourne won't bid on Green and hand GWS two top 5 picks.

And that it was worked out weeks ago during/before the trade period.

Melbourne might stun us all one day and stop trying to take short cuts to success. I read in the H/S this morning how all of their problems are done with and they will definitely win the premiership next year because they have sacked a few people.

"Listen Linda, Listen, listen, are you listening Linda?" You can't take shortcuts to a flag. Can't happen and it won't happen.

[The Adelaide Connection]

Re: Draft Day 2019: Prediction Versus Hopes (with Poll)

Last year we toured Baily Smith and Ben King and King went the pick before Smith

Jeemak is correct, whilst there are no promises or commitments made I don't think we would tour a player we genuinely didn't have an interest in.

Last year we had an early pick so you don't need to tour many players, this year at 13 moving to 15 we have probably toured 3 players in Pickett, Bergman and Weightman.
If you believe the speculation that has Melbourne being linked to Pickett and Weightman and the Hawks having a passing interest in Bergman so you would have to think all three are in the mix with us

I'm still a little hopeful that a player like Kemp, Stephens, McAsey or Robertson might slip through and we feel compelled to select them. I also think Josh Worrell should be in the discussion

I know we took King and Smith through last year, I guess we knew one of them was getting to us when we held such a low pick. But at 13 (potentially 15) it seems a bit risky if that is a player high on our wish list.

I think we would be genuinely interested in Weightman, but it still seems a strange move to be so public. Port cut all communication off with Mead late in the year when recruiters were interviewing etc. He was genuinely unsure if they were still keen. It's either horrendous management by Port (it probably still is) or they didn't want him to feel like it was a done deal when talking to recruiters.

That said, I remember reading a post on here from someone that sat in on one of the drafts and he said that our recruitment guys had almost the exact order (I think into the 20's). So maybe there is no risk.

[Bornadog]

Re: Draft Day 2019: Prediction Versus Hopes (with Poll)

I wouldn't rule out a smokey.

[Mofra]

Re: Draft Day 2019: Prediction Versus Hopes (with Poll)

Someone I'm not enthused about hopefully, given I was not enthused about Naughton.