Ladder sliders, risers, stalling 2016?

[Ghost Dog]

Nominate a few clubs you think will move up or down at least 4 ladder positions and 1 club going nowhere. Nice if a few attempted facts are given.

Risers
Bulldogs - Libba back, new backline, one more full pre-season into some very talented kids.
Port Adelaide - 2015 was a big disappointment and felt they underacheived. Coach under a fair bit of pressure, will come out firing.

Stallers
North
People have figured out how to cut apart their taller list. Lots of decent players, yet without the blue chip quality you need to go deep into finals, bar Goldstien, Swallow. Shaun Higgins and Harvey have been making them look great. Not sure how long that can go for.

Sliders ( dramatic fall)
Sydney
Aging list. Sensing their descent, may make the best of the situation and get some experience into younger players.

Richmond
Their list seems awkward and lacking in depth. Haven't added huge amounts of talent, and a few younger, hungrier teams will get the jump on them earlier in the season before their members descend on punt road with pitchforks and force them to jag a few wins at junk time at the end of the season.

[boydogs]

Re: Ladder sliders, risers, stalling 2016?

Risers
WB - 2nd youngest list in the AFL in 2015 but made finals, will be flag contenders for the next 5 years
Geelong - Massive off-season, will be firmly entrenched in the 8

Stallers
GWS - Turning into Brisbane the way they are leaking talent, they won't ever make finals whilst they have players walking out like this
Richmond - Talented but fold under pressure, 1st round exit again

Sliders
Fremantle - Their lack of talls & youth will hold them back
North - Too reliant on older & injury prone players

[LostDoggy]

Re: Ladder sliders, risers, stalling 2016?

RISERS
Port - Too bad to be true last year and Dixon gives them a proper key tall target. Looking potent forward of centre (Dixon, Schulz, Wyngard, Gray, Westhoff), gun midfielders (Boak, Hartlett, Wines), quality tall backs (Trengrove and Carlile) and great tall utility options in Ryder and Westhoff. Top 4 list for mine.

Geelong - Very tough draw last year, easier now. Selwood wasn't right last year and Dangerfield takes a lot of pressure off him. Henderson is a competent tall defender when his head's right - he will be valuable down back. Blicavs still has improvement in him.

Others who should hold their own or improve include Bulldogs, GWS, Gold Coast, St Kilda and (dare I say it) Melbourne.

STALLERS
Collingwood - Enough decent quality to maintain mid-table status, but not enough good quality youngsters in the 50-100 game zone to make major progress. Depth of quality talls looks thin and unreliable in terms of staying fit and healthy.

No points for bravery, but can't see Carlton or Essendon going anywhere.

SLIDERS
Adelaide, the loss of Dangerfield puts enormous pressure on Sloane and Thompson (who isn't getting any younger anyway for a high workrate midfielder). A lot being asked of too few for mine. Also lifted emotionally after the Phil Walsh tragedy, so may find it hard to lift again this year.

Hawthorn, may seem ridiculous but they have been up a long time. Their midfield is built around the aging Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis and Burgoyne. For mine, their only quality genuine talls are Roughead and McEvoy. Gibson, Frawley and Gunston play tall, but will miss Lake and Hale. Obviously still a very, very good team but looks stretched tight to me and not sure the younger crop can match those leaving/declining.

Sydney, also been up a long time. Defence looks proppy and forward line highly reliant on fragile Tippett and Franklin. Need warriors Kennedy, Hanneberry, McVeigh and Jack to back up yet again. For a team that can lack run and pace, Jetta is a loss and Goodes was an invaluable gap filler who still added quality at key times even as a veteran last year.

Others who will struggle to hold ground; North (a lot of old players, lack midfield polish and pace), Freo (big list deficiencies, but super powerful midfield should see them still win more than lose).

[boydogs]

Re: Ladder sliders, risers, stalling 2016?

Freo (big list deficiencies)

Time for Ross Lyon to run off somewhere else again

[Twodogs]

Re: Ladder sliders, risers, stalling 2016?

Richmond will slide. They have gone with the same plodding one paced midfield heavily reliant for creativity on Deledio who is missing more and more footy with soft tissue injury. I just can't see any improvement in them and think lots of teams will go past them.

[Ghost Dog]

Re: Ladder sliders, risers, stalling 2016?

Richmond will slide. They have gone with the same plodding one paced midfield heavily reliant for creativity on Deledio who is missing more and more footy with soft tissue injury. I just can't see any improvement in them and think lots of teams will go past them.

Great summation. Their list is so samey. If you put a blur filter on the TV, it would be hard to tell who was who, besides Dellidio and Martin. Maybe Reiwoldt but he goes missing in big games so it hardly matters. Tyron Vickery has missed a lot of footy in his career.

Great article here
"Of all the young players taken in the draft since Hardwick was appointed, Champion Data, using their famous ratings system, can’t find one player on the Richmond list taken later than pick 15 to rate even as average heading into 2015, let alone above average or elite."

What excites me about our list is the variety. Fiery mosquito types with 90% accuracy. Rear guard giant-killers with massive guns.
Beanpole midfielders with gadget arms. And Jake stringer who is like the genetic experiment that got all the X-men genes and can do anything.

Melb beat them with a man down, in the second half, by 32 points in 2015. I thought Tigers fancied themselves as a grind it out team.

As this article points out, there is absolutely nobody in that team I would call intimidating. I seem to recall they drafted some older guy from Port I think? He looked pretty tough. Apart from him Ivan is maybe the only tough guy they have if you can stop laughing at his mullet.

[Mantis]

Re: Ladder sliders, risers, stalling 2016?

Risers

Port - All things being equal they should finish top 4, still have concerns over their defence & how they handle their ruck situation, but very talented forward of centre.

Gold Coast - Had a horrid run with injuries in losing Ablett, O'Meara, Prestia & Swallow for large parts of the year as well as a raft of off-field issues.. If they get a decent run with injuries they should push for a top 8 spot.

Coll - Pretty talented list and I think they will improve on the past 2 years were they have fallen away in the 2nd half of the year.. They had a handful of ultra competitive losses against the top 6 sides this year and it won't take much to turn at least half of those into wins.

Stellars

Us - I think we will hold ground in 2016, which would be a good result with a developing list.. A win in the first week of finals must be the aim.

Richmond - Will scrounge out enough wins to finish around the bottom part of the 8, but just not enough depth in top end quality to push up into the top 4.

Sliders

Sydney - Team of workhorses, but lack run across the ground... Their defence is a huge concern.

As with others I think Haw & North will drop off a little too.

[Remi Moses]

Re: Ladder sliders, risers, stalling 2016?

Risers - Collingwood
Reckon with a very good young list they'll rise into the eight
- Geelong
Not convinced the Danger recruiting will bring them the ultimate goal, but they've recruited for top 4
- Port
Need to develop another game plan, they've been found out. Like the recruitment of Dixon

[Remi Moses]

Re: Ladder sliders, risers, stalling 2016?

Stallers - Dogs, just reckon we might hold ground, but love to be proven wrong
Tigers,just don't see the logic of Yarran. They need mid grunt
GWS, keep losing players, but they'll stay near the eight.
Sliders - Norf, I just think they've got to many who may fall of the cliff
- Sydney, ageing side, and the buddy recruitment cost them depth wise

[Remi Moses]

Re: Ladder sliders, risers, stalling 2016?

I hope like hell hawthorn slide, as I'm so sick of the hawthorn hubris

[LostDoggy]

Re: Ladder sliders, risers, stalling 2016?

Betjam are one of the leading AFL analysts. Last year, pre season, they tipped WCE as a top 4 team and Bulldogs as a top 8 team.

They base their predictions on algorithms which take in the draw, player movements, results over recent years and an historical analysis of list profile and performance.

Their preliminary 2016 ladder is:

Freo 76
Hawth 72
WCE 72
Bulldogs 64
Port 60
Adel 52
Geel 52
Rich 52

Syd 48
GCS 44
North 44
Coll 36
GWS 36
StK 24
Ess 24
Melb 16
Carl 12
Bris 8

[GVGjr]

Re: Ladder sliders, risers, stalling 2016?

Betjam are one of the leading AFL analysts. Last year, pre season, they tipped WCE as a top 4 team and Bulldogs as a top 8 team.

They base their predictions on algorithms which take in the draw, player movements, results over recent years and an historical analysis of list profile and performance.

Expensive site to join. I don't bet much at all and I can't justify a $20 per month fee for AFL analysis.

[LostDoggy]

Re: Ladder sliders, risers, stalling 2016?

Expensive site to join. I don't bet much at all and I can't justify a $20 per month fee for AFL analysis.

Yeah, I'm not a member. Some of the analysis finds its way into public consumption.

[Twodogs]

Re: Ladder sliders, risers, stalling 2016?

Betjam are one of the leading AFL analysts. Last year, pre season, they tipped WCE as a top 4 team and Bulldogs as a top 8 team.

They base their predictions on algorithms which take in the draw, player movements, results over recent years and an historical analysis of list profile and performance.

Their preliminary 2016 ladder is:

Freo 76
Hawth 72
WCE 72
Bulldogs 64
Port 60
Adel 52
Geel 52
Rich 52

Syd 48
GCS 44
North 44
Coll 36
GWS 36
StK 24
Ess 24
Melb 16
Carl 12
Bris 8

16 wins I'd take that.

[Ghost Dog]

Re: Ladder sliders, risers, stalling 2016?

Thanks for the data. Collingwood seems a bit out of place there. If they end up there, Buckley is definitely in for the boot.