Nat Fyfe Rumours This Trade Period

[Doc26]

Re: Nat Fyfe Rumours This Trade Period

Yeah, if Hrovat goes it'll be for Carltons pick 41 and thats it.

That would be some fall in value from us using our selection 21 on him in the 2012 draft, and at #21 that was seen to be unders for him at the time.

He really hasn't had a good run at it with injuries as yet and would hate to give any form of leg up to Carlton even though they did us a big favour handing us Caleb Daniel for Liam Jones.

We should be looking at trade options with a Club like Melbourne. If they can give up pick 25 for Melksham with his low ceiling, Hrovat at 41 would seem on the low side unless it included a sweetener.

[azabob]

Re: Nat Fyfe Rumours This Trade Period

Nathan Hrovat will be the next Nat Fyfe. Mark my words.

In what way?

[Ghost Dog]

Re: Nat Fyfe Rumours This Trade Period

In what way?

Going to explode out of the blocks and predicting him to be a bolter for 2017

Now when I get laughed at, please remember my call that Picken should play forward a few years ago.
I just know these things, trust me.

[Twodogs]

Re: Nat Fyfe Rumours This Trade Period

Yeah. It's a good theory.

[Topdog]

Re: Nat Fyfe Rumours This Trade Period

Ordinarily I'd agree. Jong & Hartlett knocking them back helps a tad. GCS enquired reasonably strongly about him last year, so we know they rate him. But GCS have a few Academy picks at the pointy end which opens up mathematicians to get involved. The downgrade is only a little over 550 draft points. If we traded 37 for 41, that gets them 71 points back. Effectively they get Hrovat for less than 500 draft points, or draft points to the value of pick 37. (That's assuming Stevens can't help us get something better than 37). That's pretty close to win-win if we get top 10 and they get Rat for effectively pick 50. If Carlton's 41 is the best offer, I'd rather take a first round upgrade and second round downgrade.

Edit: This is the math:

Pick 8 to Pick 18: 566 loss in draft points
Pick 41 to Pick 37: 71 gain in draft points

495 loss of draft points - equivalent to pick 37. So essentially GCS get Hrovat for pick 37.
(If Stevens netted us a pick at 30 for example, & we used that and kept 37 the loss would be only 349 points or equivalent to pick 45)

We'd have pick 8, 37, 41 & 59 (in the Stevens scenario).

GCS keep 4, 6, 14 & 18, 22, 23, 25, 27 & 30 and get Hrovat included in that (for effectily pick 45 such is the minor draft point downgrade). That's how it can be sold.

I appreciate the effort you have put into that possibility and to be honest I'm not fully across the trade points and how they work but that is still a 9 pick downgrade in the first round for a guy who played only 4 games for us this year and has been plagued by injuries.

Much like Jong probably had his highest value right now and Hamling too, Hrovat's value is most likely at it's lowest right now

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Nat Fyfe Rumours This Trade Period

I appreciate the effort you have put into that possibility and to be honest I'm not fully across the trade points and how they work but that is still a 9 pick downgrade in the first round for a guy who played only 4 games for us this year and has been plagued by injuries.

Much like Jong probably had his highest value right now and Hamling too, Hrovat's value is most likely at it's lowest right now

I'm not going to push the barrow, suffice to say it's not about the downgrade in and of itself, in a traditional sense of players of the highest quality. Odds are they may have to match a bid before pick 7. So their natural pick 8 is not going to be pick 8 by the time points are deducted after a match. It could conceivably be dropped well passed 18. A trade that keeps good first round points and nets them a player they've previously enquired about may actually be a better outcome overall for them with the technical nature of the draft point system. For instance Sydney traded pick 23 for picks 36 & 37 last year which ordinarily you'd suggest would not be wise, but it's the fine print behind the point system. If they traded down, kept a heap of first round points and got Hrovat for a point value equivalent to pick 50 it's a win-win. I guess the question is do GCS rate Hrovat at about pick 37 to 50 in a trade.