Tweet
Another of these thread types. Nathan Brown suggested we are into Sam Reid of Sydney. This is my case for passing on him. So ladies & gentlemen of the WOOF jury:
Sam Reid (Sydney):
Games: 104
Goals: 105
Height: 196cm
Weight: 97cm
Why?: I've always had question marks on him. From a consistency perspective and physical perspective. I've said a lot when we had Liam Jones, that I thought these two were the most identical players I have ever seen. From a stats record here is the key numbers:
Liam Jones (Carlton version): Averaging 8.4 disposals, .9 goals a game
Sam Reid (entire career): Averaging 11 disposals, 1 goals a game
On stats, that's damning to me. Especially since he's had other big forwards to take the better defenders. I know when we've seen him play against us, he's looked good. That may create a bias as the team he has scored the most against is... The Western Bulldogs. So we see his best, while fans of other clubs don't really see it. So don't take our viewing experience of him as a broader sample of his consistency.
He missed all of 2016 with injury. That's got to be a concern too. Especially if he's commanding $550,000+ a season.
Further, we need to find a proven finals performer. Reid has played in 9 finals as a forward, and has kicked only 5 goals (barely .5 goals a final). Those mere five goals were matched with 7 behinds, so he is under 50% goal kicking conversion of the 1.25 shots he gets per final. So he doesn't stand up in finals according to his stats, he doesn't get many shots on goal and the ones he does get are majority misses. So I'm really, really concerned about his ability to make us better in the window we are in. His Liam Jones comparison on stats alone gets even closer in finals:
Liam Jones (Carlton version): Averaging 8.4 disposals, 3.2 marks (1.5 contested) & .9 goals a game (50% accuracy)
Sam Reid (finals career): Averaging 8.4 disposals, 3.4 marks (1.2 contested) & .5 goals a game (under 50% accuracy)
I think if we have one free agency shot with the salary cap we have left, the player needs to make us a better September team. Also, his goal kicking accuracy over his career is just 59% which may exacerbate our goal kicking conversion problems.
So to conclude, his body has durability issues, his career stats aren't great and finals career compare closely to the Carlton version of Liam Jones, he's not a good goal kicking converter and he goes horribly missing in September. The competition on him may mean a 4 year deal around $550,000 is the minimum offer to get him, which blocks us on other free agent or trade targets. I have a lot of issues that need to be explained before thinking this is a great idea.
Dear WOOFER jury, has the case been made to pass on Reid, or is it way off track?
Sam Reid (Sydney):
Games: 104
Goals: 105
Height: 196cm
Weight: 97cm
Why?: I've always had question marks on him. From a consistency perspective and physical perspective. I've said a lot when we had Liam Jones, that I thought these two were the most identical players I have ever seen. From a stats record here is the key numbers:
Liam Jones (Carlton version): Averaging 8.4 disposals, .9 goals a game
Sam Reid (entire career): Averaging 11 disposals, 1 goals a game
On stats, that's damning to me. Especially since he's had other big forwards to take the better defenders. I know when we've seen him play against us, he's looked good. That may create a bias as the team he has scored the most against is... The Western Bulldogs. So we see his best, while fans of other clubs don't really see it. So don't take our viewing experience of him as a broader sample of his consistency.
He missed all of 2016 with injury. That's got to be a concern too. Especially if he's commanding $550,000+ a season.
Further, we need to find a proven finals performer. Reid has played in 9 finals as a forward, and has kicked only 5 goals (barely .5 goals a final). Those mere five goals were matched with 7 behinds, so he is under 50% goal kicking conversion of the 1.25 shots he gets per final. So he doesn't stand up in finals according to his stats, he doesn't get many shots on goal and the ones he does get are majority misses. So I'm really, really concerned about his ability to make us better in the window we are in. His Liam Jones comparison on stats alone gets even closer in finals:
Liam Jones (Carlton version): Averaging 8.4 disposals, 3.2 marks (1.5 contested) & .9 goals a game (50% accuracy)
Sam Reid (finals career): Averaging 8.4 disposals, 3.4 marks (1.2 contested) & .5 goals a game (under 50% accuracy)
I think if we have one free agency shot with the salary cap we have left, the player needs to make us a better September team. Also, his goal kicking accuracy over his career is just 59% which may exacerbate our goal kicking conversion problems.
So to conclude, his body has durability issues, his career stats aren't great and finals career compare closely to the Carlton version of Liam Jones, he's not a good goal kicking converter and he goes horribly missing in September. The competition on him may mean a 4 year deal around $550,000 is the minimum offer to get him, which blocks us on other free agent or trade targets. I have a lot of issues that need to be explained before thinking this is a great idea.
Dear WOOFER jury, has the case been made to pass on Reid, or is it way off track?
Comment