2010 Brownlow Medal

[Scorlibo]

Okay I know it's very early in the season, but I just thought I'd get the ball rolling on Brownlow talk. This year I'm taking a more systematic approach to my Brownlow tips; I've developed a model which calculates the probability of a player getting 3, 2 or 1 Brownlow votes given the player's disposals tally, goals tally, Supercoach score and number of votes given to them by the two opposing coaches (AFLCA Award). From the percentiles I approximate the average of all outcomes, or in more basic terms, the most likely vote tally of the player (except its in decimal form!). I thought some might be interested in my leaderboard to date:

1 - J Brown - 6.2 votes
2 - N Riewoldt - 4.57 votes
3 - M Barlow - 4.32 votes
4 - G Ablett - 4.11 votes
5 - B McGlynn - 4.07 votes
6 - L Hodge - 3.05 votes
7 - B Harvey - 3.05 votes
8 - A Sandilands - 2.78 votes
9 - K Cornes - 2.64 votes
10 - R Griffen - 2.53 votes
11 - R O'Keefe - 2.52 votes
12 - S Gilbert - 2.49 votes
13 - L Montagna - 2.18 votes
14 - A Carrazzo - 2.14 votes
15 - D Swan - 2.12 votes

With Riewoldt injured, Barlow a first year player, McGlynn unlikely to continue his form and Hodge and Harvey known non-pollers, you'd have to think Brown and Ablett are the best bets from here, although it's extremely early. Sandilands looms as a good bet if Freo continue their form, and Montagna and Swan are again around the mark in the early parts of the season. And Griff? Well, who knows! For those interested, I have the top 5 doggie Brownlow pollers as:

1 - R Griffen - 2.53
2 - A Cooney - 1.93
3 - M Boyd - 1.63
4 - L Gilbee - 1.44
5 - M Hahn - 0.73

I can update this every 3 weeks if anyone is keen.

But for general discussion,

1) Who is your tip?
2) Who is your smokie?
3) Who will win the Doggies count?!

For me:
1) Leigh Montagna
2) Stephen Hill
3) Adam Cooney

Cheers guys.

[LostDoggy]

Re: 2010 Brownlow Medal

My tip: Adam Cooney
Smokie: Chris Knights
Dogs: Adam Cooney

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Re: 2010 Brownlow Medal

Fantastic work there Scorlibo. Will definitely be interested to read further analysis in a few weeks time.

My tip: Gary Ablett - I can't tip against him. His game v Fremantle was outstanding.
Smokie: Aaron Davey - Thought he was BOG v Collingwood.
Dogs: Adam Cooney - Looks in pretty good touch and we know he's a proven vote getter.

[GVGjr]

Re: 2010 Brownlow Medal

My tip: Adam Cooney
Smokie: Chris Knights
Dogs: Adam Cooney

Isn't Chris Knights out injured?

[Bornadog]

Re: 2010 Brownlow Medal

I think Griffen will poll well this year.

[boydogs]

Re: 2010 Brownlow Medal

Tip: Adam Cooney
Smokie: Shaun Higgins
Dogs: Adam Cooney

[chef]

Re: 2010 Brownlow Medal

Tip-Cooney
Smokie-Rioli
Dogs-Cooney

[The Coon Dog]

Re: 2010 Brownlow Medal

Scorlibo, good read & a great amount must go into it each week.

One area I would have a query on though is the Coaches votes. They may look at someone who does a specific job, as an example Dale Morris might negate his direct opponent & keep him to a handful of kicks & not get too many himself, but he's done the team thing & is recognised by his coach. In that example I can't see the umpires reflecting it.

And yes, please keep us updated regularly. Be interesting to see at the end of the season how you went.

Tip: Sam Mitchell
Smokie: Aaron Davey
Dogs: Adam Cooney

[Go_Dogs]

Re: 2010 Brownlow Medal

Isn't Chris Knights out injured?

Played his first game for the year on the weekend, and obviously lacked a little bit of conditioning. He was OK though, and should start to really pick up his form over the next couple of weeks.



Tip: Goddard
Smokie: O'Keefe
Bulldogs: Cooney

[Scorlibo]

Re: 2010 Brownlow Medal

Scorlibo, good read & a great amount must go into it each week.

One area I would have a query on though is the Coaches votes. They may look at someone who does a specific job, as an example Dale Morris might negate his direct opponent & keep him to a handful of kicks & not get too many himself, but he's done the team thing & is recognised by his coach. In that example I can't see the umpires reflecting it.

And yes, please keep us updated regularly. Be interesting to see at the end of the season how you went.

Tip: Sam Mitchell
Smokie: Aaron Davey
Dogs: Adam Cooney

Thanks TCD, a lot of research went into it before the season started, and then a lot of time was spent formatting and formulating the excel spreadsheet. But now I simply have to plug the results in each week, which doesn't take too long.

I know what you're saying, and I agree, but I feel the the system is a bit flawed without the coaches votes. I have the disposals/goals in there for the raw quantity of a player's performance, I have the supercoach scores to measure effectiveness/damage with those possessions/goals, and then the Coaches votes are in there because sometimes stats alone (however technical in the case of SC) are misleading, and the coaches seem to have the most direct perception of the game outside of perhaps the umpires, so they tend to balance it out.

For example Ablett's performance in Round 2 was not given any coaches votes, even though he amassed a game high 38 disposals and scored 128 supercoach points (second highest). So under the system he was third or fourth in line for votes, and not first as disposals and supercoach score would suggest. The main thing to note is that under the system, the players most likely to poll the 3 and 2 votes will be the players who do well in every category. So dour defenders who get coaches votes will still not have a very good average voting outcome because they typically won't do well in the statistical areas.

ps. Sam Mitchell is a good tip I reckon, with the Hawks set to do well. Buddy looks down on form, Sewell is coming off an injury and Hodge is a bad poller, so he doesn't look to have much competition for votes. Plus he is himself is quite a good poller.

[The Coon Dog]

Re: 2010 Brownlow Medal

ps. Sam Mitchell is a good tip I reckon, with the Hawks set to do well. Buddy looks down on form, Sewell is coming off an injury and Hodge is a bad poller, so he doesn't look to have much competition for votes. Plus he is himself is quite a good poller.

11 games for 31 votes when he won the Liston Trophy is testament to that.

[LostDoggy]

Re: 2010 Brownlow Medal

[LostDoggy]

Re: 2010 Brownlow Medal

Great minds think alike

[LostDoggy]

Re: 2010 Brownlow Medal

Isn't Chris Knights out injured?

Played his first game for the year on the weekend, and obviously lacked a little bit of conditioning. He was OK though, and should start to really pick up his form over the next couple of weeks.

What he said.

I think he will poll very well this season.

[LostDoggy]

Re: 2010 Brownlow Medal

Medal: Cooney
Smokey: Sandilands
Dogs: Cooney