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Match Preview: Western Bulldogs Vs Greater Western Sydney Giants
Sunday, 3.20pm - Spotless Stadium
Sunny & 24c
Last Time We Met (30 May 2015)
Bulldogs: 16.17 - 113
GWS: 11.2 - 68
Last Week:
WBFC def MFC - 114-82
GWS def GCS - 149-58
What do the bookies say? (Crown Bet):
GWS $1.35
WBFC $ 3.25
The quick analysis says we are going to be getting smashed, and smashed easily. I can't and don't agree.
Summary:
The 'Wild West Derby' has come around again, playing in Australia this year. An opportunity to unify all the stresses and frustrations in your life and aim them at this plastic franchise whose human life equivalent would be the spoilt rich kid that only has any friends because they've been given so many toys.
I really, really don't like them. Let me count thy ways:
1. Approaching Callan Ward against AFL rules during the year without consequence.
2. After point 1, getting much less compo than MFC got for Scully.
3. Adams sniping Cooney a few years back.
4. Convincing our then captain to walk out of our club, the captaincy and his contract.
5. Sooking when Tom Boyd was offered the same treatment.
6. The 2014 last game of the round where we were beaten in the last minute. Which is also their only win against us. Or maybe that was a great thing that Jake dropped that mark, Brendan Macca would say no.
This is the game of the round for mine, Third vs Fifth on the ladder with both teams equal on wins and only a few percent difference. Their attack measured by the ladder percentage is better than 140 points than us this year, but our defence is about 80 points better than theirs. So it's a case of whether the arm wrestle of their attack and our defence falls our way or theirs. One could argue that the big win last week against the GCS under 14 side is throwing out these stats.
As much as I detest them, they have talent across every line and have some confidence. But the Bulldogs aren't devoid of ridiculous talent and confidence either. No doubt the winner will be credited with racking up a season defining win by knocking of another contender.
Selection Table:
Western Bulldogs:
Ins: Keiran 'Dad' Collins (Debut: Dandenong Stingrays) & Stevens. Minson, Jong & Honeychurch onto extended bench.
Outs: Matt Boyd (susp), Jack Redpath (susp)
GWS:
Ins: Greene, Tomlinson, Sam J Reid (who would've thought Sam would still be in the system!!!)
Outs: Nil
Key Match Ups
The very versatile GWS forward line vs The very well zoned team defence of the Western bulldogs
As per above, the GWS attack is about 140 points up on us this year. They have some big boys in Patton, Cameron, Lobb and mid sized forwards like Stevie J, Palmer and rotations of high quality players. It certainly provides a few headaches for us, as did Adelaide a few weeks ago with a similar forward line set up. But our team defence is almost as good as it gets when we do it right. Bringing in Collins helps cover their big bodies, Wood and Morris are the leaders down back and running defenders to set up forward entries.
Western Bulldogs Vs Themselves
Can the bulldogs continue to improve their forward 50 entries and goal kicking? Winning the footy isn't a huge problem with a damaging and hardened midfield and half backs adept at getting the turnovers. There was in improvement against Melbourne, but with Redpath spending the weekend in Melbourne is there another tall player who can provide a target and a foil for Jake Stringer to do what Jake Stringer does best. Embarrass the other 4 or 5 defenders on his own.
Camhead (& Minson) vs Mumford & Son
As called by me and a few others early this week, Campbell to go deep forward with Roughy rucking and dropping into defence if needed with Minson then rucking (possibly depending on the final bench). The weather looks to be sunny and 24c so without rain and lesser impact for rucks and the tall GWS forward line, this taller trio could be a great match up for us. Roughy offers cover down back, and Minson schooled Mumford last year and has been wound up impressing in the VFL, so unleash him on GWS I say. GWS have dominated the hit outs, so if we can nullify that whilst giving Bevo more flexibility then this is the week for this set up, all things continued.
Midfield Vs Midfield
I know I should be pulling out individual match ups, but there's so many guns on both sides. Ward stands out as someone we need to curtail and the 19 tackle job Libba did on Jones & Viney last week if repeated could be a big decided. Nullify Mumford giving them first use, then when with first use pummel them into the ground. Stevens coming back adds in another hard contested ball winner and Wallis, Dahl, Libba, Stevens, Macrae, Bonts and others are just a brilliant multi-dimensional midfield. We've got the hard edge to get it, if we can keep using it better and improving F50 entries then we are a fair way towards grinding out a hard fought win.
2016 Stats
A part from the same wins, and similar percentage, almost every single team stats are near identical for both teams. It's really uncanny, I don't recall seeing such a mirror between an opponent and us after 8 weeks for numbers to diverge, but haven't. Almost all areas of data from this year is within a single digit percentiles of each other. Down to frees for (they've been getting them too, but I must of missed those articles about that) and even the number of interchanges for each team. This data and stats indicates that this game could be an arm wrestle and not a shoot out. Their only real number in their favour is 'hit outs', while we have an average of an extra '40 disposals' a game made up wholly in '40 extra handpasses'. If we can nullify their ruck dominance and use our run, carry and handpassing then we might just have the advantage to beat them.
Conclusion:
Western Bulldogs: by 14 points
Best on Ground:Tom Liberatore
First Goal: Tory Dickson
Crowd: 152 people (inclusive of ground staff)
** If you like these types of threads, please contribute to the discussion and volunteer to do one this season **
Sunday, 3.20pm - Spotless Stadium
Sunny & 24c
Last Time We Met (30 May 2015)
Bulldogs: 16.17 - 113
GWS: 11.2 - 68
Last Week:
WBFC def MFC - 114-82
GWS def GCS - 149-58
What do the bookies say? (Crown Bet):
GWS $1.35
WBFC $ 3.25
The quick analysis says we are going to be getting smashed, and smashed easily. I can't and don't agree.
Summary:
The 'Wild West Derby' has come around again, playing in Australia this year. An opportunity to unify all the stresses and frustrations in your life and aim them at this plastic franchise whose human life equivalent would be the spoilt rich kid that only has any friends because they've been given so many toys.
I really, really don't like them. Let me count thy ways:
1. Approaching Callan Ward against AFL rules during the year without consequence.
2. After point 1, getting much less compo than MFC got for Scully.
3. Adams sniping Cooney a few years back.
4. Convincing our then captain to walk out of our club, the captaincy and his contract.
5. Sooking when Tom Boyd was offered the same treatment.
6. The 2014 last game of the round where we were beaten in the last minute. Which is also their only win against us. Or maybe that was a great thing that Jake dropped that mark, Brendan Macca would say no.
This is the game of the round for mine, Third vs Fifth on the ladder with both teams equal on wins and only a few percent difference. Their attack measured by the ladder percentage is better than 140 points than us this year, but our defence is about 80 points better than theirs. So it's a case of whether the arm wrestle of their attack and our defence falls our way or theirs. One could argue that the big win last week against the GCS under 14 side is throwing out these stats.
As much as I detest them, they have talent across every line and have some confidence. But the Bulldogs aren't devoid of ridiculous talent and confidence either. No doubt the winner will be credited with racking up a season defining win by knocking of another contender.
Selection Table:
Western Bulldogs:
Ins: Keiran 'Dad' Collins (Debut: Dandenong Stingrays) & Stevens. Minson, Jong & Honeychurch onto extended bench.
Outs: Matt Boyd (susp), Jack Redpath (susp)
GWS:
Ins: Greene, Tomlinson, Sam J Reid (who would've thought Sam would still be in the system!!!)
Outs: Nil
Key Match Ups
The very versatile GWS forward line vs The very well zoned team defence of the Western bulldogs
As per above, the GWS attack is about 140 points up on us this year. They have some big boys in Patton, Cameron, Lobb and mid sized forwards like Stevie J, Palmer and rotations of high quality players. It certainly provides a few headaches for us, as did Adelaide a few weeks ago with a similar forward line set up. But our team defence is almost as good as it gets when we do it right. Bringing in Collins helps cover their big bodies, Wood and Morris are the leaders down back and running defenders to set up forward entries.
Western Bulldogs Vs Themselves
Can the bulldogs continue to improve their forward 50 entries and goal kicking? Winning the footy isn't a huge problem with a damaging and hardened midfield and half backs adept at getting the turnovers. There was in improvement against Melbourne, but with Redpath spending the weekend in Melbourne is there another tall player who can provide a target and a foil for Jake Stringer to do what Jake Stringer does best. Embarrass the other 4 or 5 defenders on his own.
Camhead (& Minson) vs Mumford & Son
As called by me and a few others early this week, Campbell to go deep forward with Roughy rucking and dropping into defence if needed with Minson then rucking (possibly depending on the final bench). The weather looks to be sunny and 24c so without rain and lesser impact for rucks and the tall GWS forward line, this taller trio could be a great match up for us. Roughy offers cover down back, and Minson schooled Mumford last year and has been wound up impressing in the VFL, so unleash him on GWS I say. GWS have dominated the hit outs, so if we can nullify that whilst giving Bevo more flexibility then this is the week for this set up, all things continued.
Midfield Vs Midfield
I know I should be pulling out individual match ups, but there's so many guns on both sides. Ward stands out as someone we need to curtail and the 19 tackle job Libba did on Jones & Viney last week if repeated could be a big decided. Nullify Mumford giving them first use, then when with first use pummel them into the ground. Stevens coming back adds in another hard contested ball winner and Wallis, Dahl, Libba, Stevens, Macrae, Bonts and others are just a brilliant multi-dimensional midfield. We've got the hard edge to get it, if we can keep using it better and improving F50 entries then we are a fair way towards grinding out a hard fought win.
2016 Stats
A part from the same wins, and similar percentage, almost every single team stats are near identical for both teams. It's really uncanny, I don't recall seeing such a mirror between an opponent and us after 8 weeks for numbers to diverge, but haven't. Almost all areas of data from this year is within a single digit percentiles of each other. Down to frees for (they've been getting them too, but I must of missed those articles about that) and even the number of interchanges for each team. This data and stats indicates that this game could be an arm wrestle and not a shoot out. Their only real number in their favour is 'hit outs', while we have an average of an extra '40 disposals' a game made up wholly in '40 extra handpasses'. If we can nullify their ruck dominance and use our run, carry and handpassing then we might just have the advantage to beat them.
Conclusion:
Western Bulldogs: by 14 points
Best on Ground:Tom Liberatore
First Goal: Tory Dickson
Crowd: 152 people (inclusive of ground staff)
** If you like these types of threads, please contribute to the discussion and volunteer to do one this season **
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