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I was hoping to get a little bit more info stats wise, but spent the best part of the weekend at the hospital with my son, so sorry about that.
MATCH:
Sydney v Western Bulldogs – SCG – Sunday 4 May – 1.10pm
FORM THIS SEASON:
Sydney (5th) have won 3 games, lost 2 & drawn 1. Those loses were to St.Kilda by 2 points & Geelong who ran away in the final term which didn’t reflect the true picture. Convincing wins against Port Adelaide, Brisbane & West Coast are reflected in Sydney’s healthy percentage.
The Bulldogs (3rd) are unbeaten scoring wins against teams that have troubled us in the past in St.Kilda, Adelaide & West Coast with wins also against Essendon & Melbourne. The only blot on the copybook is a draw against Richmond, but significantly the Bulldogs have a better percentage than Syney & North melbourne after their draw in round 6.
RECENT CLASHES:
This doesn’t bode well for the Doggies as Sydney have won the past 5 encounters between the 2 sides. In those 5 games Sydney have scored 525 points to the Bulldogs 353, which roughly translates to an average 6 goal loss!
2007 R9 Syd 100 b WB 50
2006 R8 Syd 116 d WB 90
2005 R9 Syd 90 d WB 76
2004 R10 Syd 93 d WB 67
2003 R12 Syd 127 d WB 63
SCG FACTOR:
Sydney relish playing at the SCG. The last 5 encounters have seen healthy Swans victories: R14 2007 Freo 28 pts, R15 2007 Carl 62 pts, R17 2007 Rich 66 pts, R22 2007 Hawthorn 72 pts & R2 2008 Port 68 pts. That’s an average winning margin of 59 pts!!
The Doggies last 5 outings have resulted in a win & 4 losses: R8 2002 win 69 pts, R12 2003 loss 64 pts, R10 2004 loss 26 pts, R9 2005 loss 13 pts & R8 2006 loss 26 points.
PLAYERS MISSING:
Sydney are without Barry Hall which is a godsend for the Doggies as he has played well in recent matches, Nick Malceski, Nick Fosdike, Henry Playfair & Jarred Crouch are either injured or playing for the Swans reserves.
The Doggies Shaun Higgins, Farren Ray, Andrejs Everitt & Tom Williams are still listed as injured or returning via Williamstown.
LAST MEETING:
A comprehensive shut out by Sydney in Manuka in front of 14,517 fans. Sydney that day had 353 possessions to the Bulldogs poultry total of 252. Syd 15.10.100 d WB 8.9.57. Fortunately 2 of the better players that day are out in Schnieder (St.Kilda) & Malceski (knee).
SELECTION TABLE:
Sydney may welcome back injured ruckman Peter Everitt, who has absolutely thrashed our ruckmen over recent matches including stints up forward where he’s managed to kick a few handy goals. He made his return from injury this week for the Swan’s reserves.
The Doggies are unlikely to make any changes in my view. Those changes that may be considered are Eagleton/Hill out & Ray & one of Ward/O’Keefe in, tho I’d stick with the current team.
PLAYERS UNDER THE PUMP:
Sydney may look at dropping Nick Davis whose form has been ordinary, particularly on the weekend against North Melbourne where he had just 9 disposals & only kicked the one goal.
Nathan Eagleton must find that raking left foot & quickly. With Farren Ray close to returning someone’s going to be squeezed out to make way for him.
STYLE:
Sydney will want to play the game on their terms which is all about getting numbers to the contest, restricting space & being prepared to run & block for each other. Watching Sydney play football is akin to watching a boa-constrictor feast upon a hapless lamb. You know how it will end up, but before the coup-de-gras, the young lamb will have the life squeezed out of it.
The Bulldogs must be wary of trying to play the game as Sydney would like it, tho this season the Bulldogs have shown that a solid pre season in the gym & adding some bulk has meant that they are more than capable around the stoppages. A ruckman who willingly looks to get his hands dirty too has helped.
KEY DEULS:
Paul Bevan v Jason Akermanis: I think Aker has shown over recent weeks that he’s extremely dangerous up forward, particularly if he’s given space. Don’t expect him to be given much latitude by Paul Bevan this week.
Craig Bolton v Robert Murphy: Sydney will know just how dangerous Murph can be. He has the uncanny knack of turning defenders inside out as well as hurting them with scintillating leads. Like Aker I expect him to be marked extremely closely & Craig Bolton is the man I expect to take him. If Murph gets off the leash early then Martin Mattner may be next.
Brett Kirk v Adam Cooney: The ultimate test for Coons this week. At the end of the game he’ll know he’s played a game of footy as Kirk will be with him every step of the way. Underrate Kirk offensively at your peril. When Sydney have the ball Kirk is fantastic at finding space & can really hurt you going the other way. Cooney’s biggest test to date. His team mates must be prepared to block at the stoppages to allow Cooney some run at the ball.
Adam Goodes v Matthew Boyd: As much as Goodes is strong overhead, it’s his ability to run that can really hurt you. Boyd has the engine to go with him but will need cover from taller defenders if Goodes pushes forward. Shut Goodes down & it limits Sydney’s ‘go forward’ significantly.
Michael O’Loughlin v Dale Morris: Probably one of the few players who have given Dale a thorough hiding. O’Loughlin can be unsighted for most of the game & bob up with a few goals in a short period of time as he did in the final term on the weekend against the Kangaroos. Never seems to miss set shots against us either!
Ryan O’Keefe v Lindsay Gilbee: Both players give enormous drive to their respective teams & this will be a pivotal battle in the scheme of things. Whoever can get on top will go along way towards their team’s ultimate outcome in this game.
Jolly/Everitt v Hudson/Minson: Jolly & Everitt have hurt us in the past, not only around the ground but going forward they have been able to kick goals. I don’t expect them to have it their own way this time against Hudson & Minson & believe this is probably the most important duel in the match. Should a ruckman dominate then his team are likely to be ahead at the end of the game.
WHO WILL WIN & WHY?
Having watched the Swans on the weekend I can honestly say it was one of the more dour games I’ve seen for sometime. No one has the ability to lock a game down like Sydney does! They are past masters at it & excel is contesting a stop play, moving it forward 15 metres & contesting another stop play.
This is a particularly gruelling game & must tax the players enormously. Core body strength is paramount & Sydney posses it in spades. Midfield rotations take on enormous significance in this game too, as fresh legs are going to be needed at every contest.
The Bulldogs must not fall into the trap that other teams do (see North on the weekend) & attempt to play Sydney at their own game. The Bulldogs must stick to what has worked this year & be prepared to run with the ball & spot up a leading target. Players who get into space must be used & really hurt the Swans with their disposal.
I’d consider looking to use a forward in a defensive role to negate Tadgh Kennelly as much as possible as he’s the sole reason Sydney got back into the game on the weekend with dash from half back.
Scott Welsh could possibly be the game breaker, particularly if he starts picking off defensive kicks from the Swans & is able to convert.
This could go either way, but I’ll tip a Doggies win by 1 point.
MATCH:
Sydney v Western Bulldogs – SCG – Sunday 4 May – 1.10pm
FORM THIS SEASON:
Sydney (5th) have won 3 games, lost 2 & drawn 1. Those loses were to St.Kilda by 2 points & Geelong who ran away in the final term which didn’t reflect the true picture. Convincing wins against Port Adelaide, Brisbane & West Coast are reflected in Sydney’s healthy percentage.
The Bulldogs (3rd) are unbeaten scoring wins against teams that have troubled us in the past in St.Kilda, Adelaide & West Coast with wins also against Essendon & Melbourne. The only blot on the copybook is a draw against Richmond, but significantly the Bulldogs have a better percentage than Syney & North melbourne after their draw in round 6.
RECENT CLASHES:
This doesn’t bode well for the Doggies as Sydney have won the past 5 encounters between the 2 sides. In those 5 games Sydney have scored 525 points to the Bulldogs 353, which roughly translates to an average 6 goal loss!
2007 R9 Syd 100 b WB 50
2006 R8 Syd 116 d WB 90
2005 R9 Syd 90 d WB 76
2004 R10 Syd 93 d WB 67
2003 R12 Syd 127 d WB 63
SCG FACTOR:
Sydney relish playing at the SCG. The last 5 encounters have seen healthy Swans victories: R14 2007 Freo 28 pts, R15 2007 Carl 62 pts, R17 2007 Rich 66 pts, R22 2007 Hawthorn 72 pts & R2 2008 Port 68 pts. That’s an average winning margin of 59 pts!!
The Doggies last 5 outings have resulted in a win & 4 losses: R8 2002 win 69 pts, R12 2003 loss 64 pts, R10 2004 loss 26 pts, R9 2005 loss 13 pts & R8 2006 loss 26 points.
PLAYERS MISSING:
Sydney are without Barry Hall which is a godsend for the Doggies as he has played well in recent matches, Nick Malceski, Nick Fosdike, Henry Playfair & Jarred Crouch are either injured or playing for the Swans reserves.
The Doggies Shaun Higgins, Farren Ray, Andrejs Everitt & Tom Williams are still listed as injured or returning via Williamstown.
LAST MEETING:
A comprehensive shut out by Sydney in Manuka in front of 14,517 fans. Sydney that day had 353 possessions to the Bulldogs poultry total of 252. Syd 15.10.100 d WB 8.9.57. Fortunately 2 of the better players that day are out in Schnieder (St.Kilda) & Malceski (knee).
SELECTION TABLE:
Sydney may welcome back injured ruckman Peter Everitt, who has absolutely thrashed our ruckmen over recent matches including stints up forward where he’s managed to kick a few handy goals. He made his return from injury this week for the Swan’s reserves.
The Doggies are unlikely to make any changes in my view. Those changes that may be considered are Eagleton/Hill out & Ray & one of Ward/O’Keefe in, tho I’d stick with the current team.
PLAYERS UNDER THE PUMP:
Sydney may look at dropping Nick Davis whose form has been ordinary, particularly on the weekend against North Melbourne where he had just 9 disposals & only kicked the one goal.
Nathan Eagleton must find that raking left foot & quickly. With Farren Ray close to returning someone’s going to be squeezed out to make way for him.
STYLE:
Sydney will want to play the game on their terms which is all about getting numbers to the contest, restricting space & being prepared to run & block for each other. Watching Sydney play football is akin to watching a boa-constrictor feast upon a hapless lamb. You know how it will end up, but before the coup-de-gras, the young lamb will have the life squeezed out of it.
The Bulldogs must be wary of trying to play the game as Sydney would like it, tho this season the Bulldogs have shown that a solid pre season in the gym & adding some bulk has meant that they are more than capable around the stoppages. A ruckman who willingly looks to get his hands dirty too has helped.
KEY DEULS:
Paul Bevan v Jason Akermanis: I think Aker has shown over recent weeks that he’s extremely dangerous up forward, particularly if he’s given space. Don’t expect him to be given much latitude by Paul Bevan this week.
Craig Bolton v Robert Murphy: Sydney will know just how dangerous Murph can be. He has the uncanny knack of turning defenders inside out as well as hurting them with scintillating leads. Like Aker I expect him to be marked extremely closely & Craig Bolton is the man I expect to take him. If Murph gets off the leash early then Martin Mattner may be next.
Brett Kirk v Adam Cooney: The ultimate test for Coons this week. At the end of the game he’ll know he’s played a game of footy as Kirk will be with him every step of the way. Underrate Kirk offensively at your peril. When Sydney have the ball Kirk is fantastic at finding space & can really hurt you going the other way. Cooney’s biggest test to date. His team mates must be prepared to block at the stoppages to allow Cooney some run at the ball.
Adam Goodes v Matthew Boyd: As much as Goodes is strong overhead, it’s his ability to run that can really hurt you. Boyd has the engine to go with him but will need cover from taller defenders if Goodes pushes forward. Shut Goodes down & it limits Sydney’s ‘go forward’ significantly.
Michael O’Loughlin v Dale Morris: Probably one of the few players who have given Dale a thorough hiding. O’Loughlin can be unsighted for most of the game & bob up with a few goals in a short period of time as he did in the final term on the weekend against the Kangaroos. Never seems to miss set shots against us either!
Ryan O’Keefe v Lindsay Gilbee: Both players give enormous drive to their respective teams & this will be a pivotal battle in the scheme of things. Whoever can get on top will go along way towards their team’s ultimate outcome in this game.
Jolly/Everitt v Hudson/Minson: Jolly & Everitt have hurt us in the past, not only around the ground but going forward they have been able to kick goals. I don’t expect them to have it their own way this time against Hudson & Minson & believe this is probably the most important duel in the match. Should a ruckman dominate then his team are likely to be ahead at the end of the game.
WHO WILL WIN & WHY?
Having watched the Swans on the weekend I can honestly say it was one of the more dour games I’ve seen for sometime. No one has the ability to lock a game down like Sydney does! They are past masters at it & excel is contesting a stop play, moving it forward 15 metres & contesting another stop play.
This is a particularly gruelling game & must tax the players enormously. Core body strength is paramount & Sydney posses it in spades. Midfield rotations take on enormous significance in this game too, as fresh legs are going to be needed at every contest.
The Bulldogs must not fall into the trap that other teams do (see North on the weekend) & attempt to play Sydney at their own game. The Bulldogs must stick to what has worked this year & be prepared to run with the ball & spot up a leading target. Players who get into space must be used & really hurt the Swans with their disposal.
I’d consider looking to use a forward in a defensive role to negate Tadgh Kennelly as much as possible as he’s the sole reason Sydney got back into the game on the weekend with dash from half back.
Scott Welsh could possibly be the game breaker, particularly if he starts picking off defensive kicks from the Swans & is able to convert.
This could go either way, but I’ll tip a Doggies win by 1 point.
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