Hawthorn 2009 > Western Bulldogs 2017

[bulldogtragic]

I'm not saying we are there yet, but the parallels exist with a talented list that got a premiership ahead of expectations, as Dalrymple said this week.

If for some reason we can't turn it around, much like Hawthorn in 2009, it brings up some interesting discussions about whether we continue on with our recruiting. Or do we look at what Hawthorn did.

So what did Hawthorn do? They traded in elite and top end talent. They traded out a fan favourite in Mark Williams (a previous leading goal kicker, and also Kennedy & McGlynn who wanted more opportunity) and their first, second and third rounder to bring in Shaun Burgoyne & Josh Gibson. Bringing in a class ball user into the midfield to get it to their tall forwards and a good second tall defender/intercept player.

They went to the draft later on and picked up Duryea & Stratton, a few misses and upgraded rookies such as Suckling.

Now we have a recruiter who can pick gems late in the draft, and will have upgrades in Smith & Lynch at a minimum. So we can make our minimum 3 draft selections. Also we have a longer game with Rhylee West in particular, Josh Kellett, Oliver Liberatore and any next generation players, such as Buuks, if they're worth/bid on way above our natural picks and we can get them anyway.

If for example we ended up with something around 10, 28 & 40 (via North) that's identical to what Hawthorn had in 2009 which they traded all three. So the questions come up about parallels and seeing what Hawthorn did to turn an early flag into a dynasty, and whether the age and talent profile of our kids is sufficient that do not need more and more kids to develop or go out aggressively in the trade period with our picks on the table and prepared to use our cap on good trades or free agents.

Looking at what Hawthorn did, and the similarity in the youth on our lists after a flag and slow next year, there's a good argument to identify two key needs (like they did) and go hard at filling them with talented & experienced players through trade & free agency. Probably Moreso when Dalrymple says the draft doesn't look to bat deep into the first round (just like the 2009 draft). With so many paralleling aspects, I wonder if we will look at what they did and how they did it, because that trade period really set them up for their dynasty.

[comrade]

Re: Hawthorn 2009 > Western Bulldogs 2017

The diluting of the talent pool with expansion needs to be taken in to account. The competition was ripe for a team to top up via trading/FA which Hawthorn did spectacularly well.

I think we clearly have enough depth to pin point some needs and use our first rounder to round out the holes in the squad rather than continue to stock pile kids taken with later picks. A key back, an elite skilled midfielder and a highly productive, converting forward would all be on my wishlist.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Hawthorn 2009 > Western Bulldogs 2017

The diluting of the talent pool with expansion needs to be taken in to account. The competition was ripe for a team to top up via trading/FA which Hawthorn did spectacularly well.

I think we clearly have enough depth to pin point some needs and use our first rounder to round out the holes in the squad rather than continue to stock pile kids taken with later picks. A key back, an elite skilled midfielder and a highly productive, converting forward would all be on my wishlist.

Sorry, trade our first rounder to fill the gaps?

[boydogs]

Re: Hawthorn 2009 > Western Bulldogs 2017

I think this is an end of season discussion BT

Too much to play out with player and team performance between now and the next list management period

We need to be thinking about tactical adjustments for this season not strategic list management changes

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Hawthorn 2009 > Western Bulldogs 2017

I think this is an end of season discussion BT

Too much to play out with player and team performance between now and the next list management period

We need to be thinking about tactical adjustments for this season not strategic list management changes

For the coaches sure, no doubt. But for Dal & JMac this is a contingency they need to and will be running through, as they do. Obviously plan A is keep winning and get pick 18 again. What's plan B? What's plan C?

When you listen to recruiters and list managers talk about their work during the year, they're constantly assessing all the different scenarios they might face. In the scenario that injuries in inconsistency hold us back, then we will be working on plans for that. Dal has said the first round isn't deep, but does it get to pick 10? Does JMac want to increase the age/talent profile to fill gaps through trade and free agency? Do Dal & JMac want more kids in the VFL while some may retire?

This is an exercise and thinking through a contingency. If JMac says to Dal at what point do you think the first end drops off? And Dal says pick 6, for example. If we have pick around pick 10, then JMac might say let's put it on the table and I'll contract player managers of players who are worth that kind of currency. That stuff needs to be done during the season, not the end. If our plans fail, like Hurley did, and Carlton have been into Marchbank all year, then we are out of that race. We need to know what we might be prepared to trade (or not depending on Dal's view of around pick 10) and who we would want for it and get going as player managers are being inundated on clients like Fyfe, Kelly, Martin, Schache etc.

Then looking at the Hawthorn parallel as an example of what a club did to turn one premiership into 4.

[GVGjr]

Re: Hawthorn 2009 > Western Bulldogs 2017

I like the fact that BT is forward thinking and is working up contingency options. I'm not sure I agree with the comparison with the Hawks though because I still strongly believe we can change the course of this season and force our way into a competitive position.
We will probably know within a month.

We made some mistakes with our list at the end of last season and while Dalrymple and the team did as well as they could on draft night we still have some work to do to get the list right.

I think the big test for us at the end of the season is to see if we are regarded as a club on the rise and one that players from other sides want to be a part of or if we have to splash the cash to get them interested. I'm not sure last years flag has convinced the playing community yet so it's vital we don't just fall off this year.

I think we should keep drafting players with early picks but we certainly should go hard at the right type of free agency players.
Given the way clubs let older quality players go for next to nothing last year we might also be able to use that option as well.

BT made reference to Marchbank and I think he would have been a great addition for us. There will be options like that this year as well so I hope J-Mac is well advanced with his discussions with all the player managers.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Hawthorn 2009 > Western Bulldogs 2017

Thanks G. Listening to Dal, the one take away message is that he rates the really pointy end of the draft, but that it falls away sooner than recent drafts. That for me is the one factor that means the club needs to be exploring all avenues. Be it:

- players maybe wanting out who might get us traded up the order a smidge to a player Dal wants,
- trading down the order for double second round picks like we did two years ago, or
- if we want mature good player/s, then trading out our first and/or second rounders.

There's top end kids already being thrown such as around Kelly (pick 2), Schache (pick 2) etc. And obviously free agency options for 'need' like Hansen, McKenzie & Trengrove for tall defenders. The other take home message from Dal was that we still have a good amount of salary cap left, and then the CBA rise too. With losing older players, perhaps 2 or 3 of them, I think we could use mature options much like Hawthorn did in 2009 with Burgoyne & Gibson, the same two types we need (elite kid and KPD). If we agreed our two needs are an elite ball user and KPD, and put (say) 10 up for Kelly and grabbed KPD through free agency we would've done the same thing. That still leaves a second & third rounder and anything we can get for fringe players like Campbell.

The more I think through this scenario, the more I think this is the year to go and get the mature guns/good players. Hypothetically, say West & Khamis are taken, that could take up a big chunk of draft points in 2018. If Ollie Libba & Josh Kellett make the grade for the 2019 draft, and we want them, then again, we might be using up points. So trade wise, we may not have a lot of tradable draft picks and would have to rely upon free agency if we want to top up each year. So perhaps this is the year, list wise, to trade for mature talent and balance retirements and also if Dal is saying he's not overly thrilled with picks passed a certain point, then perhaps the stars are aligning to point us towards trading assertively this year.

[ratsmac]

Re: Hawthorn 2009 > Western Bulldogs 2017

I hope we have more to give this season and we don't end up comparing to the 2009 hawks . Although, however this season pans out I would like to see us target some established players from other clubs for sure. We have plenty to work with on our list right now in the way of young developering talent so the timing seems right to go for some mature players.

I would like to see us throw our hat in the ring for Martin. The way Richmond continue to rip their own hearts out, a premiership carrot might just be the right thing to lure him for less money than he might be offered elsewhere. He seems to have pulled his head in of late so he might just pass the no dickhead policy.

Kelly would be nice as well but surely he wouldn't knock back the reported 9 mill from North. So he'd be unlikely at best to go anywhere else but North.

Those 2 are dream targets that the dogs rarely are able to pull off so I wouldn't be holding my breath on that front. We are more likely to go with the moneyball style and find the budget players that will fill the gaps where we need the most. It's probably the wiser option anyway.

I would be happy to trade away draft picks for the right player for sure.

[Remi Moses]

Re: Hawthorn 2009 > Western Bulldogs 2017

Hawthorn had a couple of holes after 2008 .
Croad's injury and Crawford retiring hurt them that year.
This discussion is a little premature

[Bornadog]

Re: Hawthorn 2009 > Western Bulldogs 2017

I hope we have more to give this season and we don't end up comparing to the 2009 hawks . Although, however this season pans out I would like to see us target some established players from other clubs for sure. We have plenty to work with on our list right now in the way of young developering talent so the timing seems right to go for some mature players.

I would like to see us throw our hat in the ring for Martin. The way Richmond continue to rip their own hearts out, a premiership carrot might just be the right thing to lure him for less money than he might be offered elsewhere. He seems to have pulled his head in of late so he might just pass the no dickhead policy.

Kelly would be nice as well but surely he wouldn't knock back the reported 9 mill from North. So he'd be unlikely at best to go anywhere else but North.

Those 2 are dream targets that the dogs rarely are able to pull off so I wouldn't be holding my breath on that front. We are more likely to go with the moneyball style and find the budget players that will fill the gaps where we need the most. It's probably the wiser option anyway.

I would be happy to trade away draft picks for the right player for sure.

I would love Kelly, he would compliment our midfield. Dusty would be awesome, but I am not sure about his character and the people he hangs around with.

[boydogs]

Re: Hawthorn 2009 > Western Bulldogs 2017

For the coaches sure, no doubt. But for Dal & JMac this is a contingency they need to and will be running through, as they do. Obviously plan A is keep winning and get pick 18 again. What's plan B? What's plan C?

Yep, too early for them to be ruling out following the kids that are likely to go top 10

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Re: Hawthorn 2009 > Western Bulldogs 2017

Steven May please. Would love to get Haynes too. But May hasn't signed yet so I hope we're into him

[ratsmac]

Re: Hawthorn 2009 > Western Bulldogs 2017

Steven May please. Would love to get Haynes too. But May hasn't signed yet so I hope we're into him

Is Haynes gettable? He is a star star bloke. I could see him slotting in just nicely in our backline. He is GWS most important player imo.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Hawthorn 2009 > Western Bulldogs 2017

Running through some comments, I've put my thinking cap on. This scenario plays out with around pick 12. I'm not saying we will go out in the first week of the finals, just running through a scenario, a contingency a what if.

If our Hrovat pick swap stays about the same, thats pick 40 coming to us.

So we'd have picks 12, 30 & 40 (then St Kilda's fifth rounder).

Picks 30 & 40 are worth 1,058 draft points, equal about pick 16 (1,067 points).

A few different sources have Callenden, a Brisbane Academy player going top 10 this year. So Brisbane could do with more draft points as Brisbane's next pick for Callenden will be pick 19 (948 points). We could target Pick 19 with Brisbane to gain at minimum 110 draft points. As a bonus we could throw in a Honeychurch or Campbell if they were interested, or if not, we could look for a very minor upgrade somewhere with these players to a different club to give them a bigger points return towards 200 points, to get us pick 19. A genuine win-win trade.

We would then have picks 12 & 19 to trade with for mature players, in addition to free agency options. With good salary cap available, that gives us good currency to target talent with. That's hoping we re-sign all those we want to, and don't have additional currency.

Obviously we want to keep winning, take pick 18 and go back to back. No dignity, no doubt. But if we can't get out of this rut for any reason, there's an avenue to really improve the list. We then use the draft to upgrade rookies and maybe just one or two later picks, and then rookie draft picks. If we got three mature players, that would offset three possible mature retirements. I wonder who JMac would target if we let him off the chain this year with a scenario like above?

[Sedat]

Re: Hawthorn 2009 > Western Bulldogs 2017

Bevo publicly acknowledging that Libba has been in premiership hangover mode is telling. By doing so, he is effectively putting the entire playing group on notice - personally I think this is a positive thing to put this in the public domain. The reality is that we have chopped and changed our team because we have not yet reached our peak form with any level of consistency this season - aside from Libba, there are quite a few players who are really struggling with being an opposition target. Biggs is already out of the team, Hunter has had little or no positive impact on any games in the last month. Even Bont has been below par the last couple of weeks.

We will know an awful lot about season 2017 by the end of June. I still think we'll have a major say in season 2017 so the contingency plans can stay on ice for the time being. I am confident we will respond strongly this weekend and hit the bye 6-4 and with a relatively healthy list.