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Re: #Freekickoppositionteams
I'm not sure it's that big an issue anymore.
I looked at the stats, 2006-2010 had barely any upsets and barely any wins away from home, but 2011-2015 had heaps.
Looking at just the first week of finals, 8 teams that finished lower than their opponent won (12 favourites won).
And of the matches where there was a clear home ground advantage it was a 6/6 split.
Breaking it down further of the upsets only 2 were in the top four (with 8 favourites winning), but both of them were away matches with a clear home advantage (home sides won 4 games).
In the 5-8 section you were more likely to win if you were the underdog, with 6 upsets (and 4 expected results), and away sides won 4 games to the home sides 2.
So positions 5-8 are clearly irrelevant regardless of finishing position or home ground (although a lot of them would have lost the next week, which doesn't disprove the argument), while the top 2 sides seem to be better than 3-4.
Anyway this is getting in confusing territory where I forget what I am arguing. I still think there are largely two tiers of top four and top 8 with positions within that not so important, home ground advantage in finals helps but I'm not sure it is that big a factor, especially in even years where there is little separating teams.
I'm not sure it's that big an issue anymore.
I looked at the stats, 2006-2010 had barely any upsets and barely any wins away from home, but 2011-2015 had heaps.
Looking at just the first week of finals, 8 teams that finished lower than their opponent won (12 favourites won).
And of the matches where there was a clear home ground advantage it was a 6/6 split.
Breaking it down further of the upsets only 2 were in the top four (with 8 favourites winning), but both of them were away matches with a clear home advantage (home sides won 4 games).
In the 5-8 section you were more likely to win if you were the underdog, with 6 upsets (and 4 expected results), and away sides won 4 games to the home sides 2.
So positions 5-8 are clearly irrelevant regardless of finishing position or home ground (although a lot of them would have lost the next week, which doesn't disprove the argument), while the top 2 sides seem to be better than 3-4.
Anyway this is getting in confusing territory where I forget what I am arguing. I still think there are largely two tiers of top four and top 8 with positions within that not so important, home ground advantage in finals helps but I'm not sure it is that big a factor, especially in even years where there is little separating teams.
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