How Many More Wins?

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Re: How Many More Wins?

The run home. Let's assume we get 5 more wins (6 gets us in, 4 or less means we miss out)


Richmond:
Rd 18: GWS (MCG)
Rd 19: Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium)
Rd 20: Hawthorn (MCG)
Rd 21: Geelong (Simonds Stadium)
Rd 22: Fremantle (Domain Stadium)
Rd 23: St Kilda (MCG)
Wins: 14
Games against top 8 2
Games against fellow contenders 1

Sydney:
Rd 18: St Kilda (SCG)
Rd 19: Hawthorn (MCG)
Rd 20: Geelong (Simonds Stadium)
Rd 21: Fremantle (SCG)
Rd 22: Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
Rd 23: Carlton (SCG)
Wins: 13
Games against top 8 2
Games against fellow contenders 1


Melbourne:
Rd 18: Port Adelaide (MCG)
Rd 19: North Melbourne (Blundstone Arena)
Rd 20: GWS (Manuka Oval)
Rd 21: St Kilda (MCG)
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions (MCG)
Rd 23: Collingwood (MCG)
Wins: 13
Games against top 8 2
Games against fellow contenders 1


West Coast:
Rd 18: Collingwood (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 19: Brisbane Lions (Domain Stadium)
Rd 20: St Kilda (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 21: Carlton (Domain Stadium)
Rd 22: GWS (Spotless Stadium)
Rd 23: Adelaide (Domain Stadium)
Wins: 13
Games against top 8 2
Games against fellow contenders 1


St Kilda:
Rd 18: Sydney (SCG)
Rd 19: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
Rd 20: West Coast (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 21: Melbourne (MCG)
Rd 22: North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 23: Richmond (MCG)
Wins: 12
Games against top 8 5
Games against fellow contenders 4


Essendon:
Rd 18: North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 19: Western Bulldogs (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 20: Carlton (MCG)
Rd 21: Adelaide (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 22: Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium)
Rd 23: Fremantle (Etihad Stadium)
Wins: 12
Games against top 8 1
Games against fellow contenders 1

So assuming logical outcomes (again, fraught with danger this year) Saints are out with the tough run home. Richmond, Sydney and Melbourne get through on % or games. That leaves West Coast and Essendon. We must beat Essendon. Then we need to hope West Coast drop a game they shouldnt. Certainly possible. But we're still relying on other results.

[Cyberdoggie]

Re: How Many More Wins?

I did the ladder predictor and basically the only way to guarantee finales is if we win every game.
If we lose 1 (say to the giants), we may sneak in 8th spot if we are lucky but will probably finish 9th.

Also interesting for the giants, For their last game against the eagles, if they win they probably stay 4th, if they lost they could even drop to 9th it is going to be that close.

If we lose against the bombres or power we are gone, can't make it.

[Ozza]

Re: How Many More Wins?

I have us finishing 10th, Eagles 9th - with Richmond/Sydney/Essendon/Melbourne as the bottom half of the eight.

[Missing Dog]

Re: How Many More Wins?

I did the ladder predictor and basically the only way to guarantee finales is if we win every game.
If we lose 1 (say to the giants), we may sneak in 8th spot if we are lucky but will probably finish 9th.

Also interesting for the giants, For their last game against the eagles, if they win they probably stay 4th, if they lost they could even drop to 9th it is going to be that close.

If we lose against the bombres or power we are gone, can't make it.

I was the same.
Win all 6, finish 6th
Loose 1 (GWS), finish 9th

The Eagles loss is going to be very costly.

[LostDoggy]

Re: How Many More Wins?

Richmond's spot in the 8 is up for grabs in my opinion. I can easily see them only winning 1 possibly 2 on there run home. I would only have them as slight favourites against Gold Coast up there. That's about it.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Re: How Many More Wins?

I have us finishing 10th, Eagles 9th - with Richmond/Sydney/Essendon/Melbourne as the bottom half of the eight.

Similar to what i have

[merantau]

Re: How Many More Wins?

We kicked poorly all year. If we miss out on percentage we only have ourselves to blame and I think it might even be a repeat of what happened in 1955 if it comes to pass.

[Bulldog Joe]

Re: How Many More Wins?

If we get 5 wins and finish on 13 we make the finals.

12 wins we miss out due to percentage which we essentially can't make up anymore.

AFL site has a predictor to use.

www.afl.com.au/ladder/ladder-predictor

While I concede that we are unlikely to make up much percentage, it is not impossible to do so.

A couple of big wins against the Qld teams and we could improve by 10%.

[LostDoggy]

Re: How Many More Wins?

We kicked poorly all year. If we miss out on percentage we only have ourselves to blame and I think it might even be a repeat of what happened in 1955 if it comes to pass.

Except for the fact that 1955 saw us record our greatest ever percentage in a single season.

[jeemak]

Re: How Many More Wins?

The Age has us missing:

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/afl-rules-out-concurrent-games-for-live-teams-in-possible-round-23-finals-logjam-20170717-gxczlu.html

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Re: How Many More Wins?

The Age has us missing:

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-new...17-gxczlu.html

Hard to argue with.

At this stage I think we'd struggle to beat Essendon too.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Re: How Many More Wins?

The Age has us missing:

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-new...17-gxczlu.html

jeez, if west coast, essendon and Melbourne do as per the age, i'll be happy. That means 5 wins gets us in. And gets us in at 7th. I like that

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Re: How Many More Wins?

Hard to argue with.

At this stage I think we'd struggle to beat Essendon too.

Judging by what i saw friday night, essendon would carve us a new one if we play like we have most of the year.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: How Many More Wins?

I have us 11th. Netting pick 8.

If we are going to miss, then the lower the pick the better (not advocating tanking). Pick 8 is good Lever/Kelly bait.

[jeemak]

Re: How Many More Wins?

Judging by what i saw friday night, essendon would carve us a new one if we play like we have most of the year.

Depends how we tried to play against them. If we went head to head against them with a run and gun approach then yes, but if we employed a structure and stuck to it whilst maintaining a level of ferocity towards the contest then we'd account for them.