First Four Rounds - No Bont, Treloar, Marra, etc, What will be the results?

[Bornadog]

What are your predictions for the first four rounds:

North - Win
Collingwood - 50/50
Carlton - Loss
Freo - loss

Hopefully I am wrong, but it is not looking great.

[azabob]

Dare I say three from four.

Pies we will get up for the occasion and Carlton are also banged up with injuries.

Will be very tough to beat Fremantle over there even with a full list.

[Bornadog]

Dare I say three from four.

Pies we will get up for the occasion and Carlton are also banged up with injuries.

Will be very tough to beat Fremantle over there even with a full list.

That would be a good result with the injuries we have

[JackCJohnston2000]

North Melbourne - Win
Collingwood - 50/50
Carlton - Win
Fremantle - 50/50

North still look to be a bit of a mess defensively so I think we'll put up a winning score and our midfield brigade, as depleted as it is, still matches them (they have no Wardlaw, remember). Larkey probably kicks a bag but not as much as Darcy and Naughton do. And McNeil lol

On one hand, the Collingwood game is a massive occasion for our footy club and we have an okay record against them recently. But I think that this has the high potential to be a close game and as much as it pains me to say it, Collingwood are the masters of the close game.

Carlton don't look that scary to me, beyond guys like Cripps, McKay and Curnow, and have their own injury concerns.

Freo away is a tough ask but I say it's a 50/50 game because I think by this stage, we'll have worked out what this team can produce and I don't rate Freo's coaching staff enough to adapt. But definitely the toughest, most unlikely matchup of the first month.

[Aidan7557]

I'd take 1-3 with close losses/competitive games. Really hard competition and without a quarter of the starting team it's even harder. Luckily our draw opens up in the back half of the year with a lot of home games. If we can get 2-2 going into gather round that would be huge. First month of the season isn't really that important (even first 2 months), with how long the year is. All about getting momentum in the back half leading (hopefully) into finals.

[Uninformed]

Four from four

[SonofScray]

0-4

We are slow starters and regularly set ourselves up for failure through the start of season so add injury to the scenario and it’ll be a challenging start.

[jeemak]

0-4

We are slow starters and regularly set ourselves up for failure through the start of season so add injury to the scenario and it’ll be a challenging start.

Interestingly, over his career Beveridge has a first four game winning average of 57.5%, and In his last five years he's averaged 55.0% - both just either side of his career average.

In 2018 and 2022 he went at 1-3, in 2021 at 4-0.

Year	Wins	Losses
2016	3	1
2016	3	1
2017	3	1
2018	1	3
2019	2	2
2020	2	2
2021	4	0
2022	1	3
2023	2	2
2024	2	2
Average	2.3	1.7

Possibly 2022 is still pretty fresh in our minds given we made the GF the year prior, and it was such a let down. Since then the scrutiny on us (and most teams) and most teams by an overly-excitable media has been off the mark.

Not saying things have been great, but probably not as bad as we all remember (I was surprised when I looked at the numbers).

I'd be happy if we were 2-2 at Gather Round.

[Bornadog]

Interestingly, over his career Beveridge has a first four game winning average of 57.5%, and In his last five years he's averaged 55.0% - both just either side of his career average.

In 2018 and 2022 he went at 1-3, in 2021 at 4-0.

Year	Wins	Losses
2016	3	1
2016	3	1
2017	3	1
2018	1	3
2019	2	2
2020	2	2
2021	4	0
2022	1	3
2023	2	2
2024	2	2
Average	2.3	1.7

Possibly 2022 is still pretty fresh in our minds given we made the GF the year prior, and it was such a let down. Since then the scrutiny on us (and most teams) and most teams by an overly-excitable media has been off the mark.

Not saying things have been great, but probably not as bad as we all remember (I was surprised when I looked at the numbers).

I'd be happy if we were 2-2 at Gather Round.

Thanks Jee, that throws out the theory we are slow starters.

[jeemak]

Thanks Jee, that throws out the theory we are slow starters.

I don't know if it does.

What constitutes a slow start when you take opposition, list quality and expectations into account? What is considered to be the start of the season anyway?

Looking at rounds 1 to 8:

	Rounds 1 to 4		Rounds 5 to 8		Rounds 1 to 8
Year	Wins	Losses	Wins	Losses	Wins	Losses
2016	3	1	2	2	5	3
2016	3	1	3	1	6	2
2017	3	1	2	2	5	3
2018	1	3	3	1	4	4
2019	2	2	2	2	4	4
2020	2	2	3	1	5	3
2021	4	0	3	1	7	1
2022	1	3	2	2	3	5
2023	2	2	3	1	5	3
2024	2	2	1	3	3	5
Average	2.3	1.7	2.4	1.6	4.7	3.3

In rounds 5 to 8 we have averaged 60% wins over his tenure. His percentage wins for rounds 1 to 8 is 58.75%. I don't know what's supposed to be acceptable, but I think media scrutiny coupled with our own high expectations plays a part in how we perceive things. With the competition being so tight you need to stay in touch early and try to get a run on if you've got a reasonable list at your disposal and want to play finals. The key is to avoid big lapses.

[jeemak]

I couldn't help myself. Where we've really sucked under Beveridge is in the early middle part of the year, and right at the end.


image.png

[SonofScray]

Saved me the task, was curious to look at this based on how many games you can drop in a season and finish top for, what the spread of form could look like. Thanks for sharing.

[jeemak]

Think what I've done is the full picture, did it manually from Footywire so there's a chance an error here and there might be in the data. I can't be bothered checking it again.

[SonofScray]

Interestingly, over his career Beveridge has a first four game winning average of 57.5%, and In his last five years he's averaged 55.0% - both just either side of his career average.

In 2018 and 2022 he went at 1-3, in 2021 at 4-0.

Year	Wins	Losses
2016	3	1
2016	3	1
2017	3	1
2018	1	3
2019	2	2
2020	2	2
2021	4	0
2022	1	3
2023	2	2
2024	2	2
Average	2.3	1.7

Possibly 2022 is still pretty fresh in our minds given we made the GF the year prior, and it was such a let down. Since then the scrutiny on us (and most teams) and most teams by an overly-excitable media has been off the mark.

Not saying things have been great, but probably not as bad as we all remember (I was surprised when I looked at the numbers).

I'd be happy if we were 2-2 at Gather Round.

Here’s my gauge:

3-1, 4-0 is where you want to be
2-2 and below is a slow start

How many games do top four teams generally drop in a season? 5/6? 7 max off the top of my head.

2-2 and you’ve spent a few already in the first month of the season. It’s not a disaster but you’ve set a task out of the gates. Not impossible to kick on, we’ve seen teams do it (Brisbane from a worse position), but if you are looking for signs your team is going the distance, that’s not filling me with confidence.

[jeemak]

Here’s my gauge:

3-1, 4-0 is where you want to be
2-2 and below is a slow start

How many games do top four teams generally drop in a season? 5/6? 7 max off the top of my head.

2-2 and you’ve spent a few already in the first month of the season. It’s not a disaster but you’ve set a task out of the gates. Not impossible to kick on, we’ve seen teams do it (Brisbane from a worse position), but if you are looking for signs your team is going the distance, that’s not filling me with confidence.

I'm more worried about the trends in season:

image.png


We start OK, then trend downwards. Seem to get a bit of a reality check, and then shit the bed right at the end for whatever reason. The data inputs are binary, so you can only read so much into them. But interesting to look at I guess.

[Go_Dogs]

Feels like we’ll go undefeated all season so 4-0 for sure.

[Topdog]

Thanks Jee, that throws out the theory we are slow starters.

1 winning season out of 7 throws out the theory? Really?